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The Reason why 95% Traders fail

  • #141
  • Dec 21, 2009 9:45am Dec 21, 2009 9:45am
Hanover - if you do you'll find there's a strange echo - I've been reading your posts for some time...

Turvey - Ouch! Time for a new broker surely? And yeah, I've done that spread calculation too... all mounts up.

Nology - Often it is a psychological crutch as you say - it echoes the nonsense of 'never let a winner turn into a loser'. I don't actually trade S/R any more but from memory, moves to b/e were actually more damaging than profitable, because there's every chance a level is tested again before kicking off. But there are strategies where you will increase your overall profits by moving to b/e; in short, where the probability definitely changes when price revisits the level.
  • #142
  • Dec 21, 2009 10:59am Dec 21, 2009 10:59am
the reason why 95% "traders" fail: lack of patience, wrong mentality and just inability to see things the way they should be, this is due to brain. Because not everyone can succed, like in sport, if you are not made for sport genetically then you can't be the best.
  • #143
  • Dec 21, 2009 11:26am Dec 21, 2009 11:26am
Quoting Noloqy
Do you actually place a SL with your broker, or do you manually exit trades at a predetermined levels? Most of the big moves I can think of occur during major news releases (NFP most noticably), and you could consider staying out of the market during...
I place a Hard SL for the good it's worth at times hey I do plan to be out if possible before the SL is hit though it all helps.

I don't trade over news, it's to fast and SL's are useless and I avoid Market opening / closing times as likely hood of a trend change at that time.



And above is more the theory, it's damn hard to do real time, making a system tweak at the moment, which should reduce the losers and increase the winners at the expense of the win rate, we'll see!!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #144
  • Dec 21, 2009 11:30am Dec 21, 2009 11:30am
Quoting triphop
Turvey - Ouch! Time for a new broker surely? And yeah, I've done that spread calculation too... all mounts up.

Nology - Often it is a psychological crutch as you say - it echoes the nonsense of 'never let a winner turn into a loser'. I don't actually trade S/R any more but from memory, moves to b/e were actually more damaging than profitable, because there's every chance a level is tested again before kicking off. But there are strategies where you will increase your overall profits by moving to b/e; in short, where the probability definitely changes...

There only issue in 5 years, maybe 2nd issue the sorted the first 1 and refunded the money, no response to this 1 but hey

And thats the problem with moving SL to BE, your just increasing your odds on getting closed at BE the same as trailing stops every attempt at using trailing stops has just meant taking a smaller loss and missing out on a larger profit
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #145
  • Edited 1:31pm Dec 21, 2009 1:14pm | Edited 1:31pm
Quoting Turveyd
There only issue in 5 years, maybe 2nd issue the sorted the first 1 and refunded the money, no response to this 1 but hey

And thats the problem with moving SL to BE, your just increasing your odds on getting closed at BE the same as trailing stops every attempt at using trailing stops has just meant taking a smaller loss and missing out on a larger profit

I am brand new to forex trading and the factory. I have enjoyed reading your post and would like your thoughts on exit strategy. I have heard that greed and fear are our two biggest enemies, I seem to suffer more from fear. I get into a trade, get out for a few pips only to see it run for many more. Is there a way to project a target?
  • #146
  • Dec 21, 2009 6:46pm Dec 21, 2009 6:46pm
Quoting fibonator
I am brand new to forex trading and the factory. I have enjoyed reading your post and would like your thoughts on exit strategy. I have heard that greed and fear are our two biggest enemies, I seem to suffer more from fear. I get into a trade, get out for a few pips only to see it run for many more. Is there a way to project a target?

Contrary to popular belief although some targets obviously get lucky for the want of a better word there is NO Way to predict a target, a move will start it'll either move 2pips and reverse on you or 40pips or more, there is no way to say.

I'm got a M1 thread, and I'm trying out a 21ema Open on M1 as a short term direction the basic plan is, go long on a move over and exit when it moves under, there is more to it though, seems to work better than randomly guessing so far. Go read towards the end will do!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #147
  • Dec 21, 2009 7:18pm Dec 21, 2009 7:18pm
Quoting Turveyd
Contrary to popular belief although some targets obviously get lucky for the want of a better word there is NO Way to predict a target, a move will start it'll either move 2pips and reverse on you or 40pips or more, there is no way to say.

I'm got a M1 thread, and I'm trying out a 21ema Open on M1 as a short term direction the basic plan is, go long on a move over and exit when it moves under, there is more to it though, seems to work better than randomly guessing so far. Go read towards the end will do!!
Turdy you are an arse. There ARE ways to predict a target.
  • #148
  • Dec 21, 2009 7:35pm Dec 21, 2009 7:35pm
Quoting TheGreatMilenko
Turdy you are an arse. There ARE ways to predict a target.
Okay there are ways to "predict" a target for instance.


I predict GU will go to 3.4512 by the end of close tomorrow, thats a prediction it's obviously not going to happen unless the USA gets slammed by a asteroid which causes major damage ofcourse.

But it's a prediction and predictions aren't worth the paper there not written on, some will hit most won't and you'll ownly remember the times when you got it right.

It's all about location location, no sorry thats Direction Direction.

What direction is EJ going, ohhh UP, how long will it go up for ?? No idea, don't care, jump aboard ride it, exit when it's no longer going up.

Trading, profitably is as simple as that 95% fail because they try to predict.

And can someone ban Milenko please!! Thanks!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #149
  • Dec 23, 2009 3:44pm Dec 23, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting Turveyd
Okay there are ways to "predict" a target for instance.


I predict GU will go to 3.4512 by the end of close tomorrow,...
What you've just described is a non sensical guess, NOT a prediction. I,m talking about predictions that, over a period of time , make you money. You can't predict the out come of a coin toss, but you can, with reasonable accuracy predict the outcome of 10,000 coin tosses. You are REALLY leading people up the wrong path. I don't know when where or how you decided that you had some sort of qualification , that allowed you to tell people what's what in a very difficult market. You aren't making any money. There. The proof of the pudding and all that. If you read your own posts back you contradict yourself all the time. Which leads me to my last point. I think you are an arse. Now that's my opinion and I'm entitled to it. Why should I be banned because I disagree with you and think you you are an arse? I'm sure you think that I'm an arse, and disagree with me. But do you see me asking for you to be banned ? No. Grow up and stop spouting contradictions continually. When you've made some money, THEN, you'll have some sort of gravitas when it comes to trading. Untill then, button it.
  • #150
  • Dec 23, 2009 3:47pm Dec 23, 2009 3:47pm
Forgot to say turdy, happy xmas and all that. Id like to have a pint and a chat with you, but shut the fuck up about trading on the fx market. I love you really, happy new year.
  • #151
  • Dec 23, 2009 3:58pm Dec 23, 2009 3:58pm
Quoting Turveyd
I have a huge edge entrys wise, I'm a statistian kinda ........

Like ya Turveyd, but I almost choked on my water! It's like a young girl being "kind of" pregnant.
  • #152
  • Dec 23, 2009 4:08pm Dec 23, 2009 4:08pm
95% if traders fail because they are too lazy to do the work that is required to learn to trade, and that is necessary to become a good trader. It is hard work and takes lots of time, and most people are unwilling to follow through.
  • #153
  • Dec 23, 2009 5:02pm Dec 23, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting GEfx
95% if traders fail because they are too lazy to do the work that is required to learn to trade, and that is necessary to become a good trader. It is hard work and takes lots of time, and most people are unwilling to follow through.
I wonder what percentage of J16 students survive & grow. Better than 50% I'm guessing. How did they do that?

Now there's a stat that I may contrtibute to.

Do yourself a favour & spend 20 Hrs (1/2 a week of wakened Trading) assimilating J16 then tell me that this FX $#it is a crap shoot.

btw. Right now the market is in the hands of apprentices. Now is a perfect time to study.

Watch for a leap or two Early Jan as the big boys get back to their desks.

It's all about being on the correct side
  • #154
  • Dec 23, 2009 6:15pm Dec 23, 2009 6:15pm
Quoting TheGreatMilenko
What you've just described is a non sensical guess, NOT a prediction. I,m talking about predictions that, over a period of time , make you money. You can't predict the out come of a coin toss, but you can, with reasonable accuracy predict the outcome of 10,000 coin tosses. You are REALLY leading people up the wrong path. I don't know when where or how you decided that you had some sort of qualification , that allowed you to tell people what's what in a very difficult market. You aren't making any money. There. The proof of the pudding and all that....

I've read some of your other posts I'm not the only 1 on there to think ban you, your a nasty POS!!

And no they think there making money off predictions, you CAN'T see the future, yes over a weekend there are 1000's of predictions from people all contradicting each other and yeah a few get it right ofcourse they do, but the rest get it wrong.

I've been profitable hugely a few times before slipping again, which gives me alot better chance than you'll ever have of being in the 5%.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #155
  • Dec 23, 2009 6:18pm Dec 23, 2009 6:18pm
Quoting Bemac
I wonder what percentage of J16 students survive & grow. Better than 50% I'm guessing. How did they do that?

Now there's a stat that I may contrtibute to.

Do yourself a favour & spend 20 Hrs (1/2 a week of wakened Trading) assimilating J16 then tell me that this FX $#it is a crap shoot.

btw. Right now the market is in the hands of apprentices. Now is a perfect time to study.

Watch for a leap or two Early Jan as the big boys get back to their desks.

It's all about being on the correct side
I'm sorry me and a few others have tried, the J16 stuff is junk the only person making money off it is doing so by selling a subcription service.

And ofcourse there going to lie about being profitable they've likely spent a lot of time and money on learning his method, thats just the way humans work.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #156
  • Dec 23, 2009 6:26pm Dec 23, 2009 6:26pm
Quoting Turveyd
Okay there are ways to "predict" a target for instance.


I predict GU will go to 3.4512 by the end of close tomorrow, thats a prediction it's obviously not going to happen unless the USA gets slammed by a asteroid which causes major damage ofcourse.

But it's a prediction and predictions aren't worth the paper there not written on, some will hit most won't and you'll ownly remember the times when you got it right.

It's all about location location, no sorry thats Direction Direction.

What direction is EJ going, ohhh UP, how long will it...
Well said Turvey. Predictions are just educated guesses, most are not. Reminds me of an article that Bradley Gareiss of FX360 wrote not so long ago. http://www.fx360.com/commentary/brad...ices-move.aspx

Quote
The reason it is important to determine that traders move the market, is that this means no one can predict exactly where the market will go. Only probabilities at certain ranges can be determined, and usually the probabilities aren't overwhelming (they don't need to be).
Quote
So the next time you hear someone say "XYZ is going to hit (black price) today!", take those predictions with a massive grain of salt. They are saying that they know exactly what every trader is thinking, how much each of those traders will buy or sell, when they will buy or sell it, how the buying or selling of others will affect their own buying or selling, and how every trader will react to news announcements (both scheduled and unscheduled).
Quote
Let's presume that some incredible genius figured out a way to create artificial intelligence that could solve each of those issues (and more I am leaving out). That model would assume that people are rational (like fundamental analysis does). Unfortunately, there is no limit to how irrational traders can act, individually and as a group. Therefore, it becomes obvious that no one person can ever know exactly where a price will go.
  • #157
  • Dec 23, 2009 6:34pm Dec 23, 2009 6:34pm
Quoting Bemac
I wonder what percentage of J16 students survive & grow. Better than 50% I'm guessing. How did they do that?

Now there's a stat that I may contrtibute to.

Do yourself a favour & spend 20 Hrs (1/2 a week of wakened Trading) assimilating J16 then tell me that this FX $#it is a crap shoot.

btw. Right now the market is in the hands of apprentices. Now is a perfect time to study.

Watch for a leap or two Early Jan as the big boys get back to their desks.

It's all about being on the correct side
OK, not sure if you are agreeing with me or not, and I have no clue what J16 means. That said, I could not offer an opinion on whether or not 20 hours with J16 is a good use of anyones time, but perhaps it is. It is my experience that learning to trade the forex is a multi-year endevor and if anyone is not willing to put in the work before trading serious money, you'd be better off stopping now. imho.
  • #158
  • Dec 23, 2009 6:35pm Dec 23, 2009 6:35pm
Quoting Jhig
Well said Turvey. Predictions are just educated guesses. Reminds me of an article that Bradley Gareiss of FX360 wrote not so long ago. http://www.fx360.com/commentary/brad...ices-move.aspx

Correct, IF you pick the correct market direction ( which is KEY ) then basically the further out your prediction ( TP ) is the lower the odds it'll reach that level but as long the direction holds it'll reach it sooner or later.

But it doesn't mean it was a prediction ie reliable in any sense of the world.

The GU thread, where screaming 1.5300 and shorting heavily, it got to 1.5700 and there strong bearish bias meant they where shorting all the way upto 1.6700 area right before it turned back down

There is no room for a mind set beyond, the market is going up go LONG, the Market is going down go SHORT, If you can do that which is not easy to do at all ( some people can ) but it's a trust issue mainly then you've got it made.

The rest of us have to devise a system which satisfys our trust issues and allows us to trade like that sadly, including me!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #159
  • Dec 23, 2009 6:37pm Dec 23, 2009 6:37pm
"I'm sorry me and a few others have tried, the J16 stuff is junk the only person making money off it is doing so by selling a subcription service."

Let's start there... Not True...


Remind me of this in 5 years time when you are still chopping & changing from one method to the next whilst still hunting your freedom.

After more than 30 years of calculating Up or Down, I have Never seen it contained in such a succicnt box.

You will do what you do but I, with no interest in your loss or gain, suggest that you may reconsider what Price Movement is attempting to inform you of.

Seriously: You are a Member of Forex Factory & that makes it inherant that I attempt to assist you. Even if you don't think you need it.
  • #160
  • Dec 23, 2009 6:43pm Dec 23, 2009 6:43pm
Quoting Jhig
Well said Turvey. Predictions are just educated guesses, most are not. Reminds me of an article that Bradley Gareiss of FX360 wrote not so long ago. http://www.fx360.com/commentary/brad...ices-move.aspx
I think the first quote is the one that I relate to. I think of my targets as not a prediction but a statictical probability of a possible result. Nothing more than that, but nothing less than that either.
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