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James16+Rayanmcd(Jan kone) and ME 7 replies

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Jankone M5 thread

  • #2,461
  • Dec 18, 2009 4:45pm Dec 18, 2009 4:45pm
Quoting dbeach777
I missed that nice setup trade, and now trying to short it, can you believe that! SL above the 90.50 round number. Note, this is not a system setup, just me trying to do my thing... I did just close in profit a GU and EU CT trade, less then perfect, M5 setup trade as well.

So Lindsay, you didn't post your weeks tally? :-)

Mine was up real nice earlly in the week, now barely above where I started the week.. main thing I look at is I really don't want a down week... Days may happen but week, thats my rock bottom, and with trading like I do, thats...
/////////


The numbers played out very well for me this week dbeach

6 trades with 5 wins and a 0.1R loss
So basically up 5R for the week.
I would like to think this is because I am getting better at trade selelction..but lets look at the next 100 trades before I draw that conclusion. As I dont generally trade the US session these setups are from Europe open to US preopen - my brain fades about then.
All that matters is winning the week
  • #2,462
  • Dec 18, 2009 6:15pm Dec 18, 2009 6:15pm
Some nice ones yesterday (sorry its 15 min)
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  • #2,463
  • Dec 19, 2009 5:06am Dec 19, 2009 5:06am
I think this is what you are waiting for.
If you have feeling " I HAVE TO TRADE" you will lose money to some funny small bars.
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  • #2,464
  • Dec 20, 2009 2:37am Dec 20, 2009 2:37am
Quoting Jankone
I think this is what you are waiting for.
If you have feeling " I HAVE TO TRADE" you will lose money to some funny small bars.
Hi jankone

The only type of CT i trade is the one shown by you. It has some in built power

1) Very Nice Pin
2) Divergence comprising of not more than 7-8 bars which makes the divergence even more powerful IMO
3) Setup formed inside the band rather than sticking to it


The last facter i look is very important for me as shown in the chart.

4) Determine the Most Previous Swing Resistance in the same time frame

If the previous swing resistance is near my entry, i pass on the trade even if it is very good. Because the reward / risk is not favourable

If the entry is far below the previous swing resistance, i look for atleast 3 times the reward.

By ensuring the 4th factor, i can stay in this business for a long term


This is my way of trading Jankone / Ryan setup. Any feedback welcome!

Cheers
Winston
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Trading is a delicate balance of Strategy , Money management and Psychology
  • #2,465
  • Dec 20, 2009 10:23am Dec 20, 2009 10:23am
This all sounds spot on, and AAA++++ to me! I wish I was a little more conservative in my entries and that'll be my big focus for the new year.

Last night at dusk I was sitting at my computer by a big window with nice views and the biggest owl swooped by and landed on the house roof across the street. Then it sat there for over 2 hours, just checking out the scene... It was watching some quail that were on the ground, running from bush to bush, and I was thinking, I wanted to be much more like that owl and wait and watch until the perfect opportunity for me to pounce. I watched him for 2 hours and he never made his move.



Quoting oneuniverse
Hi jankone

The only type of CT i trade is the one shown by you. It has some in built power

1) Very Nice Pin
2) Divergence comprising of not more than 7-8 bars which makes the divergence even more powerful...
  • #2,466
  • Dec 20, 2009 11:05am Dec 20, 2009 11:05am
Quoting dbeach777
This all sounds spot on, and AAA++++ to me! I wish I was a little more conservative in my entries and that'll be my big focus for the new year.

Last night at dusk I was sitting at my computer by a big window with nice views and the biggest owl swooped by and landed on the house roof across the street. Then it sat there for over 2 hours, just checking out the scene... It was watching some quail that were on the ground, running from bush to bush, and I was thinking, I wanted to be much more like that owl and wait and watch until the perfect opportunity...

We can learn so many things from our Mother Nature, you are very right dbeach! On one of my wild life tour, i saw this fantastic Expert Predator behaviour.

Cheers
Winston
Trading is a delicate balance of Strategy , Money management and Psychology
  • #2,467
  • Dec 20, 2009 6:53pm Dec 20, 2009 6:53pm
Quoting sir6
Honoured to have you visit us here Rac. I've read your posts with great interest over at the J16 thread and I must say...you rock some serious trades! Lets hope this won't be the last time you visit. Cheers!
oh no..just visiting. .
I prefer big waves, over small snow balls.
Wave can take you places, snow ball can get you... a black eye...
.
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  • #2,468
  • Dec 20, 2009 7:39pm Dec 20, 2009 7:39pm
Quoting raczekfx
oh no..just visiting. .
I prefer big waves, over small snow balls.
Wave can take you places, snow ball can get you... a black eye...
.
In general - yes, but still that depends. Many "locals" used to scalp a few ticks at a time, with consistent profit day in, day out.

M5 is the same as W1 (to some degree), but things happen faster, that's all. Also, win rate drops somewhat, but not that drastically. If someone was trading M5 in a slow motion, it could be mistaken for a higher TF.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,469
  • Dec 21, 2009 3:32am Dec 21, 2009 3:32am
Quoting Jankone
I think this is what you are waiting for.
If you have feeling " I HAVE TO TRADE" you will lose money to some funny small bars.
Interesting that you liked this pinbar despite it not being at a BB extreme. My understanding is that is criteria for entering CT?

Thanks for clarification. Still learning

Josh
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  • #2,470
  • Dec 21, 2009 4:00am Dec 21, 2009 4:00am
Took this with-trend trade. It was into 1.43, but that round number had recently been broken.

Got it to b/e after 1R. stopped out after the opposing pinbar was formed.
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  • #2,471
  • Edited 4:52am Dec 21, 2009 4:40am | Edited 4:52am
Quoting Jduester
Interesting that you liked this pinbar despite it not being at a BB extreme. My understanding is that is criteria for entering CT?
...
if i may....
criteria for a CT trade? not necessarily.

if u will look at that chart, there was a nearby bullish bar, 5th bar, prior this pinbar (the entry pinbar from hereon is called "A"). that 5th bar (from hereon is called "B") was the lowest low outside BB (or, in other words, @ BB extreme). when A formed, it is the new lowest low, price-wise, BUT it closed inside of & did not touch/tag the lower BB*.
A is the new absolute low, but is not a new relative low. B remains the relative low in that chart (relative* in terms of BB)

John Bollinger (creator of BB) says that a touch/tag of outer Band plus a strong indicator reading is a Confirmation (of strength/weakness of trend).
example of confirmation: outer BB touch/tag + correspondingly strong RSI reading (example is your chart above, the uptrend in the middle, timed 4.40 to 6.00. the touches/tags of upper BB has correspondingly high RSI readings. the top, around 1.4357ish is an example of NON-confirmation --look for the 2-bar pinbar top with RSI bear.div.).
a touch/tag of outer BB with NO equivalent indicator reading is a NON-confirmation (to us, this is Divergence).
example of non-confirmation: outer BB touch/tag + correspondingly weak RSI reading (Jankone's trade discussed here; another example is again in your chart above, Dec18 22.00 to 23.40ish: price made newer highs but correspondingly weaker RSI readings... in other words, Divergence)

i'll pull out some words directly from the book if further clarification is needed.
  • #2,472
  • Dec 21, 2009 5:11am Dec 21, 2009 5:11am
Quoting Jduester
Interesting that you liked this pinbar despite it not being at a BB extreme. My understanding is that is criteria for entering CT?

Thanks for clarification. Still learning

Josh
Price relative to BB means little per se. CT are confirmed by divergence (based on RSI readings). Also, BB inventor pays more attention to what price does when it comes back inside BB: in this case price made lower Low (LL), but failed to touch the outside BB line - taken together with the RSI div that's an indication of a waning momentum.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,473
  • Dec 21, 2009 5:14am Dec 21, 2009 5:14am
Quoting supremeChaos
if i may....
criteria for a CT trade? not necessarily.

if u will look at that chart, there was a nearby bullish bar, 5th bar, prior this pinbar (the entry pinbar from hereon is called "A"). that 5th bar (from hereon is called "B") was the lowest low outside BB (or, in other words, @ BB extreme). when A formed, it is the new lowest low, price-wise, BUT it closed inside of & did not touch/tag the lower BB*.
[u]A is the new absolute low, but is not a new relative low....
What book provides a good explanation of this? I understand what you said. Thanks SC.
I looked through Jankone's charts on this thread and it is clear that he doesn't need the trigger bar to have touched the outer BB for CT trades. That is something I had assumed since most of them do... but it is not necessary criteria by any means.
  • #2,474
  • Dec 21, 2009 5:14am Dec 21, 2009 5:14am
Quoting Jduester
Took this with-trend trade. It was into 1.43, but that round number had recently been broken.

Got it to b/e after 1R. stopped out after the opposing pinbar was formed.
Those situations are tricky as one never know whether it's the end of a retracement, or a beginning of a reversal (with some interim RTs too). Higher TF and MAs could help to gauge the momentum (e.g. price failing to make lower Low on higher TF, as was the case with EU.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #2,475
  • Dec 21, 2009 5:21am Dec 21, 2009 5:21am
Quoting Forex007
Those situations are tricky as one never know whether it's the end of a retracement, or a beginning of a reversal (with some interim RTs too). Higher TF and MAs could help to gauge the momentum (e.g. price failing to make lower Low on higher TF, as was the case with EU.
Thanks Forex. This is something I need to do better. Looking at higher TF to tell me the 'story'.. for example, I think u/j and e/j are off limits right now because of the tight, flat trading over the past few days. I'm looking at the 30 min chart. E/U and G/U BB on 30m is also horizontal actually...

This stuff has really been tough for me to grasp. I see improvement in how I look at things every week though. Over time, I'll have less losing weeks, more b/e weeks, and eventually will be stringing together winning weeks, months and years. It just takes commitment, experience, and a willingness to succeed. Thanks for your help over the past months and year guys.
  • #2,476
  • Dec 21, 2009 5:44am Dec 21, 2009 5:44am
Quoting Jduester
What book....
it's John Bollinger's "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands"

Quote
I looked through Jankone's charts on this thread and it is clear that he doesn't need the trigger bar to have touched the outer BB for CT trades. That is something I had assumed since most of them do...
i believe he's picky with the pins he trades (pins + div), subconsciously taking them regardless if inside or at BB extremes/outer BB.
  • #2,477
  • Dec 21, 2009 5:52am Dec 21, 2009 5:52am
Quoting Forex007
Price relative to BB means little per se...
im not sure i get what u mean here, but i think it's the opposite.
Price relative to BB means a lot. it helps to determine confirmation/nonconfirmation, overbought/oversold, ranging or trending.

Quote
Also...in this case price made lower Low (LL), but failed to touch the outside BB line - taken together with the RSI div that's an indication of a waning momentum.
if i understood Sir Bollinger's teachings correctly, it is in fact a reversal (in Jankone's chart, price made lower low but inside the outer/lower BB, + RSI div).
  • #2,478
  • Dec 21, 2009 5:54am Dec 21, 2009 5:54am
Quoting Forex007
Those situations are tricky...Higher TF and MAs could help to gauge the momentum (e.g. price failing to make lower Low on higher TF, as was the case with EU.
do u use the same MAs used here &/or in the james16 thread?
do u use them in a similar or a different way? thanks!
  • #2,479
  • Dec 21, 2009 6:07am Dec 21, 2009 6:07am
Just took this for a quick 1R...not willing to let trades run in pre-xmas low volume markets...target was obvious PPZ area
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  • #2,480
  • Dec 21, 2009 6:12am Dec 21, 2009 6:12am
interesting...my charts dont show divergence on that one. Good trade though, cant count on runners in this volume.
All that matters is winning the week
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