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Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #521
  • Dec 18, 2009 5:29am Dec 18, 2009 5:29am
Hi guys,

I thought I would just post a quick chart and some thoughts about Christmas trading. We all know this time of year all the big boys are filling their days with mince pies and Champagne so liquidity in the marketplace is much lower than normal.

This does still give us a chance to trade using trendlines, support & resistance and retracements - we just have to adapt to the slower market pace. You will notice that support and resistance stacks nicely... looks like a stairway; providing us with some points of interest to trade.

The chart attached shows this "stacking" support and resistance - based on a 1H chart you will see that the main down trend has been broken and given the time of year shorting the market would be our best bet (I would add however that I haven't been trading the market this December as I've kind of been filling my days with mince pies and Champagne too!!).

Note that this is what trading the EUR/USD was like going back a couple of years!

Just a couple of thoughts of how to adapt to a changing market.

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-12-18_EU_Dec.png Size: 58 KB
  • #522
  • Dec 18, 2009 6:11am Dec 18, 2009 6:11am
over the last few months, i have been trading two systems which can lead to conflicting positions on the same pair, but since they are on differing accounts it doesnt matter.

but basically whay Dan charted is what i am doing on one of the accounts. i would like to add that the trend trading system we discussed can be applied to this period of flux too.

from a fundamental point of view, we are at an interesting juncture. the US economy will be the first western economy to recover in my opinion because it is the only western economy which is extraordinarily resilient and still remains a safe haven.

euro strengthened in 2009 but over the last few months, Greece and other such countries will challenge its strength (imho atleast). euro is a hodge podge of differing countries in differing states of economic, political and social maturity and by and large has been propped by germany and france. in a recession, euro's credibility will be challenged.

of the three currencies i personally think the £ is weakest.

all in all, i am saying we might see a $ revival next year.

conversely, $ debt is enormous. the US is technically bankrupt and keeps printing money to bail out the economy.

so who knows, $ might still fall

i will be around these threads, i will keep almost all of my positions open since i dont see their tps being hit in the current year. I havent yet taken a trade as per our system and am highly unlikely to do so this year.



Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

I thought I would just post a quick chart and some thoughts about Christmas trading. We all know this time of year all the big boys are filling their days with mince pies and Champagne so liquidity in the marketplace is much lower than normal.

This does still give us a chance to trade using trendlines, support & resistance and retracements - we just have to adapt to the slower market pace. You will notice that support and resistance stacks nicely... looks like a stairway; providing us with some points of interest to trade.

The chart...
  • #523
  • Dec 18, 2009 10:39am Dec 18, 2009 10:39am
Hello guys,

It seems E/U is currently way off the trend line. Is this a change of trend?
G/U is bouncing in a big range from quite some time (since May), so no news there. A/U seems to follow closely the E/U and went off trend line.

What do you think about all these? Is it Santa's fault or trends are really changing?
  • #524
  • Dec 18, 2009 10:50am Dec 18, 2009 10:50am
absolutely no clue.but i am in on a short trade on GU from 1.62, my fibs from high of 16/12 and low of 17/12. am at be now
will likely close the trade for 100 at least.


Quoting fxacs
Hello guys,

It seems E/U is currently way off the trend line. Is this a change of trend?
G/U is bouncing in a big range from quite some time (since May), so no news there. A/U seems to follow closely the E/U and went off trend line.

What do you think about all these? Is it Santa's fault or trends are really changing?
  • #525
  • Dec 19, 2009 8:40am Dec 19, 2009 8:40am
Quoting fxacs
Hello guys,

It seems E/U is currently way off the trend line. Is this a change of trend?
G/U is bouncing in a big range from quite some time (since May), so no news there. A/U seems to follow closely the E/U and went off trend line.

What do you think about all these? Is it Santa's fault or trends are really changing?
Hi,

There is a good chance that the trend has changed at least for the short term however as it is the festive season the current trend may not reflect the "long term" outlook for any currency.

My advice would be to hang up the charts for 2009 and wait and see what the new year brings! However, if you really want to trade I would suggest sticking with the simple and trade "what you see" - at the moment E/U is clearly heading south so that's what I would play. Of course now that I have said that we will probably see 1.6000 before Christmas!

Regards,

Dan

PS... Not trading advice... just a thought!!
  • #526
  • Dec 24, 2009 3:12am Dec 24, 2009 3:12am
Hi guys,

Just wanted to say Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to everyone who has contributed to this little thread so far! I hope 2010 continues to bring us success, health and happiness!



Regards,

Dan
  • #527
  • Dec 30, 2009 2:55pm Dec 30, 2009 2:55pm
You too Dan, thanks for your efforts on both threads and I wish all a happy New Year.
  • #528
  • Dec 30, 2009 7:14pm Dec 30, 2009 7:14pm
I hope everyone had a great 2009 and will have a fantastic 2010

Dan, thank you for sharing.
Everyone who helped me, Thank you too!

BR
  • #529
  • Jan 4, 2010 5:25am Jan 4, 2010 5:25am
anyone watching this?seems to be the only pair trending nicely again
  • #530
  • Jan 4, 2010 7:46am Jan 4, 2010 7:46am
Quoting coolshades
anyone watching this?seems to be the only pair trending nicely again
Hi Coolshades,

I am watching but I'm not trading at the moment - unless I see a very obvious setup occur. I see that A/U has shot through my resistance trendline and the 0.9000 psych level so we may well be seeing a return to the uptrend.

My bias is still short G/U and long E/U although I don't see either worth trading at the moment. I will be watching price action though to see if we get any hint, although my preference will be to wait until after NFP Friday and see how that affects direction.

Regards,

Dan
  • #531
  • Jan 4, 2010 8:39am Jan 4, 2010 8:39am
ok. i am already in and moved my sl to be, so its a comfortable ride now on.

Quoting DanUK
Hi Coolshades,

I am watching but I'm not trading at the moment - unless I see a very obvious setup occur. I see that A/U has shot through my resistance trendline and the 0.9000 psych level so we may well be seeing a return to the uptrend.

My bias is still short G/U and long E/U although I don't see either worth trading at the moment. I will be watching price action though to see if we get any hint, although my preference will be to wait until after NFP Friday and see how that affects direction.

Regards,

Dan
  • #532
  • Jan 4, 2010 3:17pm Jan 4, 2010 3:17pm
Hi for all,
Danger: newbie detected (joking)
I am new in this thread, hope you never mind.
What about this situation:
AUD/USD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 22 KB

It is potential brakeout of trendline? Can we hope retrace on Fibo 61.8? If price retrace, then 0.9000 will be smart for going long?

AUD/CAD
Also Fibo 50 braked out, and price moving to 61.8.
0.9550 going short?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad.gif Size: 20 KB


I need comments about my thougts. Thank you very much!
  • #533
  • Jan 4, 2010 4:03pm Jan 4, 2010 4:03pm
Quoting Slotery
Hi for all,
Danger: newbie detected (joking)
I am new in this thread, hope you never mind.
What about this situation:
AUD/USD
Attachment
It is potential brakeout of trendline? Can we hope retrace on Fibo 61.8? If price retrace, then 0.9000 will be smart for going long?

AUD/CAD
Also Fibo 50 braked out, and price moving to 61.8.
0.9550 going short?
Attachment

I need comments about my thougts. Thank you very much!
Hi Slotery,

I agree with your analysis of the AUD/USD chart. Assuming we get a retrace soon then 0.9000 would seem to be a reasonable level to watch.

Not sure about AUD/CAD though - I don't have this one with my broker so I can't give you a full analysis - from your chart it looks like a short in the 0.9550 area would be a good idea but I'm not convinced about the direction of this pair and would be inclined to wait for some kind of price action (a shooting star or bearish engulfing pattern etc) to give you a better chance.

Regards,

Dan
  • #534
  • Jan 4, 2010 4:10pm Jan 4, 2010 4:10pm
Thank you for answer! I will keep my eyes on AUD/USD.
  • #535
  • Jan 5, 2010 3:35am Jan 5, 2010 3:35am
well i am out of that for 100 pips.
  • #536
  • Jan 5, 2010 4:18am Jan 5, 2010 4:18am
Can you guys explain why you would look to Buy on that AUD-USD chart? Is it not in a downtrend?
  • #537
  • Jan 5, 2010 5:56am Jan 5, 2010 5:56am
downtrend?

Quoting Brixton
Can you guys explain why you would look to Buy on that AUD-USD chart? Is it not in a downtrend?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_2010_daily.jpg Size: 153 KB
  • #538
  • Jan 5, 2010 6:10am Jan 5, 2010 6:10am
Quoting Brixton
Can you guys explain why you would look to Buy on that AUD-USD chart? Is it not in a downtrend?
Hi Brixton,

What makes you think AUD/USD is in a downtrend?

Regards,

Dan
  • #539
  • Jan 5, 2010 1:27pm Jan 5, 2010 1:27pm
IMHO Dan's question is the most important question because before it can be answered you have to have your definition of a trend. Is it left to right, using a trendline, highs and lows, breaking out of a channel, other? For most currencies is the last month to six weeks just a bigger retrace or the part of trend change? Looking forward to the forums discussion.
  • #540
  • Jan 5, 2010 1:57pm Jan 5, 2010 1:57pm
the first post of this thread already has a trend definition



Quoting lmturek11
IMHO Dan's question is the most important question because before it can be answered you have to have your definition of a trend. Is it left to right, using a trendline, highs and lows, breaking out of a channel, other? For most currencies is the last month to six weeks just a bigger retrace or the part of trend change? Looking forward to the forums discussion.
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