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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,561
  • Dec 17, 2009 11:25pm Dec 17, 2009 11:25pm
Quoting FX Compass
GBPJPY is one nasty dragon with a big tail.
Very funny story though.

In answer to your questions a break through either the 23.6 or 78.2 towards the 50 is always a reversal trade, regardless of where it comes from.

I definately use a stop loss which I place at break even as soon as I think I have given the trade enough room to breath. If it reverses then I am stopped out and awaiting the reverse trade.

Checkz, do you only trade the break of the high or low on the candle, or can you trade in between ?

Also, what timeframe are you...
ONE HOUR RIGHT NOW
  • #4,562
  • Dec 18, 2009 1:54am Dec 18, 2009 1:54am
All, there were rumours of a coup in Pakistan, since denied but if true this will affect risk trades.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,563
  • Dec 18, 2009 5:09am Dec 18, 2009 5:09am
I got stopped out of Sell trade suffered 112 pip loss. I simply got in to early. Next time I'll wait and let the market tell me where it wants to instead of me trying to tell it where I want it to go. I learned my lesson.
  • #4,564
  • Dec 18, 2009 5:39am Dec 18, 2009 5:39am
Quoting Checkz
I got stopped out of Sell trade suffered 112 pip loss. I simply got in to early. Next time I'll wait and let the market tell me where it wants to instead of me trying to tell it where I want it to go. I learned my lesson.
MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,565
  • Dec 18, 2009 5:42am Dec 18, 2009 5:42am
Quoting FX Compass
GBPJPY is one nasty dragon with a big tail.
Very funny story though.

In answer to your questions a break through either the 23.6 or 78.2 towards the 50 is always a reversal trade, regardless of where it comes from.

I definately use a stop loss which I place at break even as soon as I think I have given the trade enough room to breath. If it reverses then I am stopped out and awaiting the reverse trade.

Checkz, do you only trade the break of the high or low on the candle, or can you trade in between ?

Also, what timeframe are you...
Compass, had previously misunderstand your method slightly, now makes even more sense and I am a lot more comfortable with it. Thanks.

P.s I haven't done anything stupid today.
Keep smiling
  • #4,566
  • Dec 18, 2009 5:47am Dec 18, 2009 5:47am
MD are you catching any of these reversals tonight ?

They are popping up everywhere.
  • #4,567
  • Dec 18, 2009 5:53am Dec 18, 2009 5:53am
My latest shot of EURUSD. Black is weekly, red is daily. Interesting to see how price reacts between the different time value levels.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD181209.png Size: 18 KB


MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,568
  • Dec 18, 2009 5:57am Dec 18, 2009 5:57am
Quoting FX Compass
MD are you catching any of these reversals tonight ?

They are popping up everywhere.
To be honest have been busy with money market stuff this morning, have only just pulled charts up. I can see AUDUSD went thru the 23.6 earlier, I doubt I'd take that long now r/r not worth it.

GBPYEN at the extremes looking like it could break above, I think I'll leave that b@sterd alone today.

What you watching?

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,569
  • Dec 18, 2009 5:57am Dec 18, 2009 5:57am
Quoting Misterdaz
My latest shot of EURUSD. Black is weekly, red is daily. Interesting to see how price reacts between the different time value levels.

Attachment

MD.

MD an important factor on your chart is length of trades.

It is very important to note that a weekly Fib could take the whole week to get to target.

The Daily obviously much sooner.

Now how many more pips will you gain on the weekly Fib and how much longer is your money at risk. All important factors in Risk Reward calculations.

I'll take 50 pips in hours over 100 pips in days any day of the week.
  • #4,570
  • Dec 18, 2009 6:00am Dec 18, 2009 6:00am
Quoting Misterdaz
To be honest have been busy with money market stuff this morning, have only just pulled charts up. I can see AUDUSD went thru the 23.6 earlier, I doubt I'd take that long now r/r not worth it.

GBPYEN at the extremes looking like it could break above, I think I'll leave that b@sterd alone today.

What you watching?

MD.

Not watching any at the moment, I just completed reversals on GBPUSD and EURJPY earlier.
  • #4,571
  • Dec 18, 2009 6:07am Dec 18, 2009 6:07am
no problem....thank you for all your valuable input ...please keep it coming.....i saw that you posted a 112 pip loss ...maybe this evening i can post a chart that will help understand what happened there...if youd like.. right now im off to work
  • #4,572
  • Dec 18, 2009 6:24am Dec 18, 2009 6:24am
Quoting Misterdaz
MD.
GBP/JPY
  • #4,573
  • Dec 18, 2009 6:30am Dec 18, 2009 6:30am
Quoting Trader_X
no problem....thank you for all your valuable input ...please keep it coming.....i saw that you posted a 112 pip loss ...maybe this evening i can post a chart that will help understand what happened there...if youd like.. right now im off to work
I would appreciate it very much. I think some of my problem came when I enter the Market to soon after the 1.382 fib ext was hit but im not sure. Like I said earlier im more of a longterm trader but I was just trying out a shorter term/timeframe trade.
  • #4,574
  • Edited 6:49am Dec 18, 2009 6:38am | Edited 6:49am
Quoting bartstop
That fast dip down sure shook the market up, I'm going to give it some time to settle out before I get back in. Probably be morning before I trade again. I can't help but to walk these fibs up and down the swings counting pips. Not that I'm greedy hehehe.
Im sitting on the sidelines today and waiting for the GBY/JPY to make up it's mind on where it wants to go. I still think it's going to go down but it could be going up. I'll just wait and see.
  • #4,575
  • Dec 18, 2009 7:17am Dec 18, 2009 7:17am
Quoting FX Compass
MD an important factor on your chart is length of trades.

It is very important to note that a weekly Fib could take the whole week to get to target.

The Daily obviously much sooner.

Now how many more pips will you gain on the weekly Fib and how much longer is your money at risk. All important factors in Risk Reward calculations.

I'll take 50 pips in hours over 100 pips in days any day of the week.
Compass, I fully understand the longer term trades require deeper stops. I was just looking at hourly trading. If my target was 50 points away I certainly wouldn't risk more than that. Regardles of any system I like to chase my stop up sensibly if I get into profit, it can get you out too soon sometimes but it's not as bad as being 40 points up then taking a 50 pt stop.

Must be past your bedtime.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,576
  • Dec 18, 2009 7:48am Dec 18, 2009 7:48am
Quoting Misterdaz
Compass, I fully understand the longer term trades require deeper stops. I was just looking at hourly trading. If my target was 50 points away I certainly wouldn't risk more than that. Regardles of any system I like to chase my stop up sensibly if I get into profit, it can get you out too soon sometimes but it's not as bad as being 40 points up then taking a 50 pt stop.

Must be past your bedtime.

MD.
It is now, in 13 minutes I turn into a pumpkin. Or is that Frog ?

Have a good weekend.
  • #4,577
  • Dec 18, 2009 8:33am Dec 18, 2009 8:33am
G'Day hopefully all is well mates.

Here is a brilliant lights out fib. Sometimes it is super simple to see. Good luck shorting GY... snort chuckle. If you were to trade this chart... one must...or well yes must ,off of just this chart, wait for the break and to figure drawdown... since once this pierces you will not lose. ...88.88 or 87.32, but... stops are another topic since they assume , generally, you could be wrong.

For the Eagle eyed blokes here this is already triggered long on a smaller fib.

As a bonus... here is a fun GY long (we already knew that from the weekly though right? right?) trade chart... that spike down fit very nicely. It looks better on diferent D1 data but this works too.

If there was any doubt(on this 61.8 property set up)... this chart confirmed on the hard rejection of the 38 and re pierce... in which we took 95% of traders money methinks.

Chaps, Take brief moment to thank all the chaps heavily shorting gy looking for 80 right now as they will be paying your house note for a while. Thank you normal traders!! Gy is not the wild beast of popular thought. It is a kitten.

A fib "must" and I apologize for this( as I detest absolutes).. but MUST have respect( and I suppose this only applies for me or if you want precise and accurate trading).. a fib chart with "zones" or "areas" is rubbish to trade and should be binned. They will work... but how might one know what is going on and when? Aye mates?

If this range is too big for your pocket book... then just only look for long set ups in side of it on smaller time periods and voila. weeks of easy winning trading.... or you can just gamble...chuckle.

Happy Hols!

TK
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uyd1.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gyh4.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #4,578
  • Dec 18, 2009 8:48am Dec 18, 2009 8:48am
Quoting Checkz
Im sitting on the sidelines today and waiting for the GBY/JPY to make up it's mind on where it wants to go. I still think it's going to go down but it could be going up. I'll just wait and see.
I would be over all targetting 164 and I might be shocked if it doesnt hit 190. Since the whole board on FF thinks 80... there is a fantastic chance I am right... also the fibs to support it well.. at least 164 atm.

Doesn't also feel like 139 ish... is the bottom... It does doesn't it.

Where an instrument is going... is decided well before it gets there. Sometimes years in advance. decades even.

Gents... many of you many never fully comprehend the genuis of Skunny or the power of this and that is alright...for those few that do... it is as much a scientific/philosophical marvel as it is a capital way to make bin loads of coin. Luck and chance play literally no part in trading...with this tool, sweat and learned skill.

A side note ... the movie PI? non fiction.


TK
  • #4,579
  • Dec 18, 2009 8:58am Dec 18, 2009 8:58am
Quoting Misterdaz
SK, I have moved my fib to exactly the same place. The Greek news has really killed the EUR of late.

Tomorrow may be the last day we see much action in the markets. Looking out the window here I doubt I'll see the office tomorrow, could be a white christmas.

MD.

The Euro has appeared to topped and is headed to ATLEAST 1.15 over the next year(s) or so. The greenback still has teeth... sharp ones. Don't bet against the yanks. Take a gander at a dollar chart... hyper bullish in a fierce "rubberband" style pullback.

This seems to indicate a collapse of equities( 5500 looks nice to start) and some nice upward moves by those daft twits ( or are they? Much easier to assume stupidity then calculating manipulation at the Fed.

TK
  • #4,580
  • Dec 18, 2009 9:36am Dec 18, 2009 9:36am
Quoting Checkz
I got stopped out of Sell trade suffered 112 pip loss. I simply got in to early. Next time I'll wait and let the market tell me where it wants to instead of me trying to tell it where I want it to go. I learned my lesson.
I'm guilty of that to. I'm trying to get in my head "trade what you see, not what you think". But it's really hard sometimes. I almost did it last night on that USDCHF chart I posted.
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