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  • #101
  • Dec 18, 2009 7:26am Dec 18, 2009 7:26am
Quoting Xaron
Why I think the Dollar will continue to weaken in 2010:

Let's make some assumptions about the money flows for 2010 regarding the Dollar.

So we have on the Dollar demand side:

USD demand (which would support the Dollar) due to:
1) technical corrections within the primary down trend for the Dollar
2) interventions from central banks (more likely if the Euro reaches 1.55+ levels)
3) unwinding of carry trades

As I don't see any systemic risks like in 2008 I think that "safe haven" argument don't count as the Dollar can't be seen as...
Too bad, I tough you were a "serious" trader, but I'm just realizing that you were just lucky riding this year trend...
Sustaining a more than 50% drawdown is not trading by any standard, it's just gambling imho.
Don't see how you can make money in the long term with this kind of discipline.
At least your thread will have a great educational value has to how and why traders have booms and busts.
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #102
  • Dec 18, 2009 8:50am Dec 18, 2009 8:50am
Yes guys, you're right. I was just overconfident.

1) I used too much leverage
2) I traded too many pairs (in exposure to the USD)
3) I closed trades too late

I just said to myself that I could ride out this deeper as I usually do because of the big gains from November. I still see that my leverage is way too high (from the beginning) and will reduce that in the future. Especially as I trade an AUD account here.

So be sure I won't give this up, call me not serious or whatever and I know I did mistakes which I hopefully use to learn from.

Guys, I never said that I'm a pro and know everything. My trading style works both in trending and ranging but has its really weak parts if the directional bias is not correct or the leverage too high. I will build some hard rules.

Thanks anyway for your opinions, I really appreciate them!
  • #103
  • Dec 18, 2009 8:57am Dec 18, 2009 8:57am
Yep, I'm sorry, I was a bit harsh i recognize it

I'm taking back the "not serious trader", as it looks like you're eager to work the situation, and you're lucid and able to recognize what went wrong.

With this state of mind and patience you'll get it back, but it will not be easy.

But trading is never easy !!!
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #104
  • Dec 18, 2009 9:13am Dec 18, 2009 9:13am
Quoting Xaron
Yes guys, you're right. I was just overconfident.

1) I used too much leverage
2) I traded too many pairs (in exposure to the USD)
3) I closed trades too late

I just said to myself that I could ride out this deeper as I usually do because of the big gains from November. I still see that my leverage is way too high (from the beginning) and will reduce that in the future. Especially as I trade an AUD account here.

So be sure I won't give this up, call me not serious or whatever and I know I did mistakes which I hopefully use to learn from. ...
Keep your chin up, your actually one of the few here that puts themselves on the line to be judged and you handle it with a positive outlook. Its all to common that when things are going well people are envious and jealous of your success, its all to common though that those same people jump on the judging bandwagon when the wheels look to fall off.

I know heading into the future you will learn and get better, at the end of the day no person is perfect at this and for those who think they are there have been some spectacular falls from grace over the past century, and usually by person/s we have come to admire and respect.

Just have yourself a happy festive period and a great New Year, see you in 2010.


Razor
  • #105
  • Dec 18, 2009 9:28am Dec 18, 2009 9:28am
Nobody is judging anybody or jumping into the judging bandwagon. Xaron was asking if he had forgoten anything and was asking for opinions.
By the way Xaron, it's not like you lost 50% of your initial deposit, you lost your profits and very very little of your initial deposit. I don't see why it would be so difficult to bring it up again. It's not as it you lost 50% of your intial balance and would need to double it to be break even. You are almost breakeven as it is.
  • #106
  • Dec 18, 2009 9:36am Dec 18, 2009 9:36am
Quoting wwwin
Nobody is judging anybody or jumping into the judging bandwagon. Xaron was asking if he had forgoten anything and was asking for opinions.
By the way Xaron, it's not like you lost 50% of your initial deposit, you lost your profits and very very little of your initial deposit. I don't see why it would be so difficult to bring it up again. It's not as it you lost 50% of your intial balance and would need to double it to be break even. You are almost breakeven as it is.
That's the common mistake.
Once profit is realized in the account, it should be viewed as the trader's money and not like some free to burn kind of money...
There is a big difference between unrealized p&l when you're in a trade an still taking the risk and realized p&l where money is definitely yours.

Just my opinion, but I think that it's a very important point, and a part of a trader's edge.
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #107
  • Edited 10:08am Dec 18, 2009 9:41am | Edited 10:08am
Quoting fxswing
That's the common mistake.
Once profit is realized in the account, it should be viewed as the trader's money and not like some free to burn kind of money...
There is a big difference between unrealized p&l when you're in a trade an still taking the risk and realized p&l where money is definitely yours.

Just my opinion, but I think that it's a very important point, and a part of a trader's edge.
I agree, I am not saying that you use profits to gamble. You should book them and treat them as what they are, your money. Did not you read my post above were I mentioned "protective stops"????.
The whole point of the post was to encourage Xaron.

At any rate, this thread is turning confrontational so I am out of here....I don't need to waste time explaining every post I make...There is money to be made today!!!!!!
  • #108
  • Dec 18, 2009 10:18am Dec 18, 2009 10:18am
Quoting wwwin
Nobody is judging anybody or jumping into the judging bandwagon. Xaron was asking if he had forgoten anything and was asking for opinions.
By the way Xaron, it's not like you lost 50% of your initial deposit, you lost your profits and very very little of your initial deposit. I don't see why it would be so difficult to bring it up again. It's not as it you lost 50% of your intial balance and would need to double it to be break even. You are almost breakeven as it is.
Let's not forget Xaron actually started the year with 10k, built it to over 20k and closed that account. He then opened this account with 5k This thread is a continuation of that same project and he is still in profit overall for the year-- in the neighborhood of 100%.

Holding losses longer than what most consider normal is part of grid trading and one of the perils. Xaron will re-evaluate and make a few corrections, just like any serious trader does.
  • #109
  • Dec 18, 2009 10:21am Dec 18, 2009 10:21am
Quoting wwwin
I agree, I am not saying that you use profits to gamble. You should book them and treat them as what they are, your money. Did not you read my post above were I mentioned "protective stops"????.
The whole point of the post was to encourage Xaron.

At any rate, this thread is turning confrontational so I am out of here....I don't need to waste time explaining every post I make...There is money to be made today!!!!!!
Lol, keep your cool...
Now if you can't exchange views with others I don't see the benefit of posting in forums.

I don't have problems if you don't agree with me, I don't have the universal truth, and if I can learn something, then I'll take it.

Don't know where you see the confrontation ?

If you feel offended, then I apologize
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #110
  • Dec 18, 2009 10:58am Dec 18, 2009 10:58am
Hi Guys

I traded BWILC approach myself from september on with a real account. Managed to gain 36 % til the beginning of december. Looking at the gain right now I have to say I lost almost everything I gained (still a little bit in the green right now) in the last 3 weeks. To me this is not acceptable...

The biggest problem with bwilc to me is that you have small positions (and small gains) when the price goes in your (fundamental) direction and big positions (and big losses) when price goes against you. Because you don't know how long and how much it will go against you it is very very hard (if not impossible) to choose the right gearing in this process. That just feels wrong to me, because I dont have control over my losses (in a mathematical meaning). I mean, its hard to know when to get the money out and realize losses.

Xaron, I like your view of the markets and I'm pretty sure you will be right in the long run. However even in a "normal" correction of the present uptrend, the euro-price can go down to 1,37 (50% fibo retracement) without any problems. With the trading like you did it in the last months you would be margin called multiple times. You cannot trade short term with a fundamental long term view.
(of course this is only my opinion and is in no way an attack of your style)

However this is what I learned from my own mistakes. I will re-evaluate my trading above the holidays and will change my trading style according to this observations. I thinking of combining my approach with a jacko like trading with a wide stop loss of around 100 to 150 pips and additionaly use some anti hedging if it goes against me.

Greetings

P.S. I someone wants to see how I failed look here http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Catwatch/oanda/1130
  • #111
  • Dec 18, 2009 11:10am Dec 18, 2009 11:10am
Regarding your big USD exposure, I found a simple but effective rule to prevent myself from opening too many trades on too many pairs. I try to think in "outcomes" to identify situations when I would put my bet on effectively the same thing.
For example: shorting EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD at the same time would be putting bets on the same outcome: USD strength. And I have a hard limit of 2 "bets" on the same "outcome".

We love BWILC, so this does not mean I can't have 3 shorts open on EUR/USD and 5 on GBP/USD at the same time. But I won't open on a 3rd pair, no matter how good the chart looks. There are exceptions but at least I will double check before putting on the 3rd bet.

Similarly, If I think EUR appears to be weak, I might short EUR/USD and EUR/JPY but then wouldn't touch EUR/GBP or EUR/CHF or anything.

Simple but effective, and limits number of open trades, exposure, margin usage etc. At least works for me!
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #112
  • Dec 18, 2009 11:52am Dec 18, 2009 11:52am
i am uncomfortable seeing so many brick bats hurled at Xaron. he had the balls to put up his accounts and trade naked in front of everyone. ofcourse no one asked him to do that, but he did it.

in addition, his accounts are overall still +ve for the year, something which 99.9% of the traders on FF cannot say. i thought i was up for the year, but have just spent the last few hours totalling up, and i am at breakeven and i thought i had a good year!

Xaron, keep on going. i have learnt a lot from you and you know that.
  • #113
  • Dec 21, 2009 1:27am Dec 21, 2009 1:27am
Good morning,

nothing to hide, that's the current situation:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...ons_211209.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/account_211209.png

That looks scary indeed, I know. Of course due to some stupid mistakes I did. I'm not dead yet. If(!) this is the bottom for now I'll be back in the plus soon. If not, well... then I have to close some stuff again.

Call me whatever you like to call me, but I stick to my Dollar bear view as long as there is no real improvement at all in the US.

This down move was rather huge and it reminds me on the deleveraging stuff of 2008. So no real USD demand due to fundamentals but due to carry trade unwinding. No doubts that the Dollar has been used as a funding currency. And I guess everyone who wanted to close their trades before year end has done this now.
  • #114
  • Dec 21, 2009 2:38am Dec 21, 2009 2:38am
It is not a sprint.

It is a marathon.

Keep Trading.
  • #115
  • Dec 21, 2009 2:13pm Dec 21, 2009 2:13pm
I think you are very brave in letting the whole world see your trading,i can not help but think it would put a lot more pressure on ones self,you have probably heard this before but having an opinion on the markets is a dangerous game,just trade the charts they are never wrong,if you look at att chart you will see double top on weekly,which is a sure sign that buyers are running out of steam,good luck with your trading.
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  • #116
  • Dec 21, 2009 10:11pm Dec 21, 2009 10:11pm
Quote
Hi Guys

I traded BWILC approach myself from september on with a real account. Managed to gain 36 % til the beginning of december. Looking at the gain right now I have to say I lost almost everything I gained (still a little bit in the green right now) in the last 3 weeks. To me this is not acceptable...

The biggest problem with bwilc to me is that you have small positions (and small gains) when the price goes in your (fundamental) direction and big positions (and big losses) when price goes against you. Because you don't know how long and how...

I myself have tried BWILC and i felt it did worked because forex prices usually reverse back. The current US $ strength is excessive because of thin december volumes.

The funda in BWILC is keep opening small positions so that if you are stuck, you do not book losses and ride the drawdown without getting margin calls.

The founder of BWILC has kept positions open for as long as 2 years before the prices reverse back. Thats the extreme case.

Nothing is easy be it BWILC or putting SLs. i have seen in many cases positions hit SLs, destroy trader confidence and then prices reverses back.
  • #117
  • Dec 21, 2009 10:27pm Dec 21, 2009 10:27pm
I feel bad for Xaron. He is a great trader with sound reasoning and research.

But market has got 'bipolar disorder'- excessive overeaction and mood swings. We get trapped with markets bipolar personality and can not think/react as fast as market over reacts.

I myself have been hurt with dollar rally and market over reaction and currently taking a break to reassess the markets and come up with a way/trade method to deal with market excessive mood swings.
  • #118
  • Dec 22, 2009 1:21am Dec 22, 2009 1:21am
Quoting sebby2468
I think you are very brave in letting the whole world see your trading,i can not help but think it would put a lot more pressure on ones self,you have probably heard this before but having an opinion on the markets is a dangerous game,just trade the charts they are never wrong,if you look at att chart you will see double top on weekly,which is a sure sign that buyers are running out of steam,good luck with your trading.
I see your point. But what's with the double top in August? Did look similar. But I know what you mean and I will use more technical stuff in the future. I think I still have to learn a lot of stuff. I think I will add something from what PeterFM does.
  • #119
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:54am Dec 22, 2009 3:54am
I'm a assuming your using a mini account size. you got some good trade. long aud and euro and short usd/cad. but i think you have opened too many usd/nok. how r u managing your losses? any stop loss?
  • #120
  • Dec 22, 2009 5:48pm Dec 22, 2009 5:48pm
Quoting Xaron
Good morning,

nothing to hide, that's the current situation:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...ons_211209.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/account_211209.png

That looks scary indeed, I know. Of course due to some stupid mistakes I did. I'm not dead yet. If(!) this is the bottom for now I'll be back in the plus soon. If not, well... then I have to close some stuff again.

Call me whatever you like to call me, but I stick to my Dollar bear view as long as there is no real improvement at all in the US.

This...
if it matters at all we have the same view as you here... i think its a beautiful position our drawdown tho right now is only about -2.3% scattered across 4 currencies with a bear http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif view with neutral exposure main difference as you seem to be very exposed to the $
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