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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #11,661
  • Dec 18, 2009 1:36am Dec 18, 2009 1:36am
Quoting Fana
Hi friends. After some time, i have discovered my trading timeframe.1M,5M, and 15M. This is really i like because of my nature. Is here somebody who uses he same?
15M-Trends and breakouts
5M-What is currently happening...
1M-thats from where to execute orders and watch current price actions(nimble, every time able to stop)
Bigger timeframe is for me stress, waiting, i cant bear such prolonged way...
Regards. Fana
Hi Fana,

I think Lusan trading 1m from his journal & Maheswara some he trades 30secs

Me I lost when I trade 1min so I changed to 5mins it's much better results bcos 1min lots of noises, just like lion is waiting for the right moment for his prey to come very close to him if it is too far he will miss his prey -so patient patient & patient. I'ld like to trade 1min tf too it's very fast but I couldn't make it so I change to 5mins now I feel much better.
I saw from lusan journal he started with 1min tf and he can make it

I don't have much time just like you so after I entered my trade I know exactly where is the rescue level & attack level so I set alert MT4 and I'm watching TV at the same time but I still on the lose side at the moment

Cheers,
  • #11,662
  • Dec 18, 2009 1:41am Dec 18, 2009 1:41am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Hi Pete,

I can assure you that the 95% losers theory (actually even more) also applies at institutional level. At least at the end of the day and those amounts are staggering, but they are always hedged, through a variety of instruments like options etc. You must understand that their MO is different and usually longer term and their million dollar end of day loses are merely paper losses.

As for news traders I doubt there are any reliable information, however it is a known fact that central banks and major banks are often involved pre and post...
Thanks Mark I'm much clearly now

cheers,
  • #11,663
  • Dec 18, 2009 1:53am Dec 18, 2009 1:53am
IMHO 15M is pointless if you also use 5M - it gives you almost the same picture. 1M or 5M depends on your mindset and nerves - I personally use 5M most of the time with seldom dips into 1M for quicker actions. But that's just me. Fti explained how to use the time frames for all 3Ks back in the thread (there was even a screenshot, if memory serves me well) - try to search for it.
  • #11,664
  • Dec 18, 2009 1:53am Dec 18, 2009 1:53am
Quoting pete.alfa
Hi everyone,

I've been wondering quite sometime that:-

1. Are banks & institutions only take profit from retail(95%loser)? are the profits enough for them for their business?

2. who are trading news whom are making profit & whom are making loss?

Thank you, as I can see in the thread you are all making money so you are not 95% of the loser you are 5% of the winner

Best regards,
Hi Pete,

to your 2nd question. I'm trading the major news figs.
I do not have any prediction before the release.
But I'm really fast, when the news is out:
1. The fact that news is above or below expectations gives me the bias
2. I do trade pute PA including the spike, based on a tick chart and confirmd my 1 min chart.
If it is to hectic, I stay at the sidlines
But I would guess that I trade 75% of the major news published through my trading session. And I would also guess that I make profits or end at least with BE in 95% of all traded news.
But it requires a lot of training and experience and a really reliable trading environment. And I do not mix it up with my fti way of trading. It is a very different technique and is done on an extra account. And I never try to rescue a bad newstrade. I kill them within a few seconds, when momentum is against my position. Average endurance of positons is ~ 10 seconds.
I would describe that style as News-Sniping.

CU,
MaMood
  • #11,665
  • Dec 18, 2009 2:11am Dec 18, 2009 2:11am
I think time frame is of least importance given that you trade the prices not the time frame. Whatever time frame you use is really just a different picture of the same price movement. Some of them "shorten" the game plan thus resulting in use of smaller time frames are due to time constrain reasons.
  • #11,666
  • Dec 18, 2009 2:11am Dec 18, 2009 2:11am
Quoting Fana
Hi friends. After some time, i have discovered my trading timeframe.1M,5M, and 15M. This is really i like because of my nature. Is here somebody who uses he same?
15M-Trends and breakouts
5M-What is currently happening...
1M-thats from where to execute orders and watch current price actions(nimble, every time able to stop)
Bigger timeframe is for me stress, waiting, i cant bear such prolonged way...
Regards. Fana
Hi Fana,

I guess my way of dancing is located at the lower end of timeframe spectrum. I guess most important is, that you take a certain ratio between the different TFs you are using.

As fti has told us, he uses most of the time M5, H1 (and very seldom daily) charts. So he has a short TF for timimg and feeling the dance. And a longer TF for seeing the major trend and areas of special interest. Keeping this in mind would let me think, that M1,M5 and H1 would correspond to his settings.

But please remember, that fti is zooming out one level for every failed rescue approach. That let's him see the suprior trends and S/R zones. And that defacto explains, why rescuing a bad position could take a rather long time.
From my own experience I would say, that you need a real good feeling for the dance, the shorter the timeframes are, that you are dancing on. Why do I think so? Because there is always the possibility of a sudden 50 pip move. When your are dancing lower Tfs, your exposure will be most likely higher to get the profits with less pips. So it will kill you much sooner, when caught on the wrong side of the move. You have to be very sure in your market feeling and react really fast and without hesitation, to avoid losses ....

Just my 0.02EUR :-)

CU,
MaMood
  • #11,667
  • Dec 18, 2009 2:17am Dec 18, 2009 2:17am
Hi all


Gentleman waiting 5 minutes, 1 minute for me very choleric.


How long is the usual wait for a lady?
You wait a long time and you will suffer a lifetime,
you wait a short time and not come to you. :o)

Hi Fana

Why the daily trend?
What is the open time window?
Why quick battle?
What is day and night positions?
What size and why?
  • #11,668
  • Dec 18, 2009 2:22am Dec 18, 2009 2:22am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Fana,

I guess may way of dancing is located at the lower end of timeframe spectrum. I guess most important is, that you take a certain ratio between the different TFs you are using.

As fti has told us, he uses most of the time M5, H1 (and very seldom daily) charts. So he has a short TF for timimg and feeling the dance. And a longer TF for seeing the major trend and areas of special interest. Keeping this in mind would let me think, that M1,M5 and H1 would correspond to his settings.

But please remember, that fti is zooming out one level...
Something I don't understand is why everybody is looking for a fast dance ? Time constrain I can understand, but my feeling is that most are over leveraged and thus do no have the buffer for the whole game plan to play out.

That said, I myself is often "over leveraged" by generally accepted standards. But having well defined risk parameters solved the problem.
  • #11,669
  • Dec 18, 2009 2:29am Dec 18, 2009 2:29am
Time frames only give you the size of the "dancing floor", it is the music itself (the market action) which defines how fast the dance should be. Risk management is constantly there and is based on several factors, not just on leverage.
I personally have an additional factor to consider - the lack of time to trade, which also shortens my dancing session. But that's just my cup of tea.
  • #11,670
  • Dec 18, 2009 2:31am Dec 18, 2009 2:31am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Something I don't understand is why everybody is looking for a fast dance ? Time constrain I can understand, but my feeling is that most are over leveraged and thus do no have the buffer for the whole game plan to play out.

That said, I myself is often "over leveraged" by generally accepted standards. But having well defined risk parameters solved the problem.
Hi,

I guess you are right with your assumption.
At least for me the reason for a fast dance are my time constraints.
For example on Monday and Tuedays I only can trade the London Opening session from ~08:00 to 11:30 my local time. So I do not have the possibility to expand my time window, when Iget into trouble.

But there is another reason as well:
Our brain and our eyes can recognize a fast movement much better than a slow one. Remember you can determine that it is moving much better for a dog than for a crumpet/snail. So it is much easier to detect an increasing momentum, when focussing on smaller timeframes. At least that is my very personal experience ....

And the third reason: You do have to fight that much against one of your scopions: The impatience

Cu,
MaMood
  • #11,671
  • Dec 18, 2009 2:50am Dec 18, 2009 2:50am
Regarding patience maybe a mindset change may help, a friend of mind once showed me an article about poker psychology and I find it really helpful for trading, at least for me, let me quote some points form the article. I replaced the word poker with trading.


Patience is what you need waiting in line at the bank, waiting for the light to turn green, waiting for an unproductive meeting to end. In all these cases, you know when your goal-banking, driving, returning to useful work-will be reached. Patience is accepting that your goal will come in its own time that it cannot be rushed. Also, being patient means that if you pass the time day-dreaming nothing is lost.

In trading, you never know when your goal-a favorable betting opportunity-will occur. You must be mentally alert and ready for action at all times because at any time, you might have to act. In the meantime, unfavorable betting opportunities are constantly present, tempting you to take foolish chances. Rather than patience, what you need to learn is what I call “deliberate non-action.” You must understand that not acting is one of the most important actions in trading. You must accept the counter-intuitive idea that not taking action is an integral part of the game and essential to your long-range goal of making money.

Again, this is why patience is the wrong idea. Being patient means you fall into a routine of automatic decisions that dulls your thinking and causes you to loose your edge. Alertness is required at all times and to stay alert, you must think of non-action as a deliberate action.

Hope this helps.
  • #11,672
  • Dec 18, 2009 2:59am Dec 18, 2009 2:59am
Quoting MaMood
Hi,

I guess you are right with your assumption.
At least for me the reason for a fast dance are my time constraints.
For example on Monday and Tuedays I only can trade the London Opening session from ~08:00 to 11:30 my local time. So I do not have the possibility to expand my time window, when Iget into trouble.

But there is another reason as well:
Our brain and our eyes can recognize a fast movement much better than a slow one. Remember you can determine that it is moving much better for a dog than for a crumpet/snail. So it is much easier...
Nicely put.
the time frame does not seem as important as mindset. 2 things to bear in mind as per my own experience: capitalization and available trading time. The point is screen time, life style and patience. I tried many combinations and I always ended up coming to the same. Chief is right: market structure, capitalization and you. So I would use whatever works. Just remember the many time he reminds us to be flexible.

Currently I am using 1D, 1H and 15M because of my job commitment. It works for me.

Happy trading to all.
I will be departing for Florida tomorrow morning and so I will be away. Merry xmas to all and your family.
Chief, if you read this, I wish you the best and once again thanks for all your kind teaching.
Now let celebrate.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #11,673
  • Dec 18, 2009 3:28am Dec 18, 2009 3:28am
my reason for 5-minute time

5 minutes based on human nature
as "3 averaging 7".
  • #11,674
  • Dec 18, 2009 3:51am Dec 18, 2009 3:51am
Happy trading day everyone. The market action is short on action so far today! Glad to see some chatter here today. Completely agree with aiyahmarkla's post on deliberate non-action. Good stuff there.

As for time frames, I work up the Day and 4H charts each day, trade the 1H, and use the 10M for entry. I will sometimes look at a 3M chart when in trade management to refine my 10M view. For me, keeping the 1H picture in mind is critical.

auxesis, happy to hear about your son. God bless him.
  • #11,675
  • Dec 18, 2009 4:20am Dec 18, 2009 4:20am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
.... deliberate non-sction
Yes - that's it!
Thx for your snippet.

CU,
MaMood
  • #11,676
  • Dec 18, 2009 5:04am Dec 18, 2009 5:04am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Regarding patience maybe a mindset change may help, a friend of mind once showed me an article about poker psychology and I find it really helpful for trading, at least for me, let me quote some points form the article. I replaced the word poker with trading.


[color=Blue]Patience is what you need waiting in line at the bank, waiting for the light to turn green, waiting for an unproductive meeting to end....
Nice post
  • #11,677
  • Dec 18, 2009 5:04am Dec 18, 2009 5:04am
Quoting GEfx

auxesis, happy to hear about your son. God bless him.
Thanks!
  • #11,678
  • Dec 18, 2009 5:43am Dec 18, 2009 5:43am
I still do not understand.
Waiting, waiting for something = create notpatience.
My opinion - "be still dancing"
  • #11,679
  • Dec 18, 2009 5:50am Dec 18, 2009 5:50am
Quoting Gro
I still do not understand.
Waiting, waiting for something = create notpatience.
My opinion - "be still dancing"
Gro,

It depends on the time frame managed, remember the post FTI stated that no position is a position. It is possible that there are times when it is best to step aside.
  • #11,680
  • Dec 18, 2009 6:41am Dec 18, 2009 6:41am
Quoting auxesis
Gro,

It depends on the time frame managed, remember the
post FTI stated that no position is a position. It is possible that there are times when it is best to step aside.
I thought waiting for something (pattern,support etc.)
creates bad patience (predctive, ilusions mind).
therefore still be in the dance.
Course, that know when to be outside the market.

5 minutes using as human nature.
and change not, because my ego is a creative :o)
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