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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #11,641
  • Dec 17, 2009 6:48am Dec 17, 2009 6:48am
eye e/u 4343 and have to say my bias is north from 4300, my eyes will be open.
  • #11,642
  • Dec 17, 2009 7:07am Dec 17, 2009 7:07am
Quoting lilpip
eye e/u 4343 and have to say my bias is north from 4300, my eyes will be open.
Be careful, this seems to be a flight to safety move, rather than some technical pullback on the Euro.

Cracks being seen in the Euro model.

That being said, there's no knowing the bottom. The last couple of weeks of December can be rather wild as there's not much to stop the herd when it runs.
  • #11,643
  • Dec 17, 2009 7:23am Dec 17, 2009 7:23am
yup
no valuable buying either... the downward move isnt finished, but i still feel long term wise dollar is bear until bernanke signals an increase...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,644
  • Dec 17, 2009 7:28am Dec 17, 2009 7:28am
Quoting lilpip
eye e/u 4343 and have to say my bias is north from 4300, my eyes will be open.
yea, I have that same idea, and wonder if there needs to be a north move to square up positions above. Maybe, we'll see. The waves still form south and can see 4285. Just following PA.
  • #11,645
  • Dec 17, 2009 9:26am Dec 17, 2009 9:26am
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Y2JA9cd0&pos=4


......Jones, 55, has returned an average of 22 percent a year since he founded Greenwich, Connecticut-based Tudor Investment Corp. in 1986. The firm limited investor withdrawals from the $9.5 billion BVI fund in November 2008. It removed those restrictions three months later, placating some clients. Tudor, which oversees $11.5 billion, has kept smaller funds open.........
  • #11,646
  • Dec 17, 2009 8:32pm Dec 17, 2009 8:32pm
eyes on 4406-17 area.
  • #11,647
  • Edited 9:46pm Dec 17, 2009 8:39pm | Edited 9:46pm
aux, what are you looking at after your review?

Myself, Im not to confident of scaling in and out with attacks as Id hate to get on the wrong side of her.

Right now just going with what I know holding with small orders and watching areas

44o6-17
4302
bias is down from 4595
  • #11,648
  • Dec 17, 2009 9:10pm Dec 17, 2009 9:10pm
Quoting lilpip
aux, what are you looking at after your review?
Lilpip,

Sorry for the delay, on the phone with one of my sons in the military, he's coming home for the holidays, Merry Christmas to me!!!

Obviously Euro's headed south, but we seem to have put in a bottom for the time being, we busted out and doubled the small range we had going on there, pull backs into the mid 43's should catch another run north I'd think but timing for the Asian might be wrong and we consolidate again going into London.

Holiday trading is coming quick, and if northbound, we be fish swimming up stream, so be very nimble. Tis tough to run that direction as your always wondering when it will kick in again. But 4500 was untested as it broke south, that would be my guess.

regards
  • #11,649
  • Dec 17, 2009 9:22pm Dec 17, 2009 9:22pm
Quoting lilpip
Id hate to get on the wrong side of her.

bias is down from 4595
Yes.

May have to wait for it to set itself up to go south again.

Regards
  • #11,650
  • Dec 17, 2009 9:39pm Dec 17, 2009 9:39pm
Quoting auxesis
Lilpip,

Sorry for the delay, on the phone with one of my sons in the military, he's coming home for the holidays, Merry Christmas to me!!
regards
Hoo-ray for the both of you.

I thought maybe you started to celebrate yesterday when it was raining euros.
  • #11,651
  • Dec 17, 2009 9:51pm Dec 17, 2009 9:51pm
Quoting lilpip
Hoo-ray for the both of you.

I thought maybe you started to celebrate yesterday when it was raining euros.
Hahaha, not quite but it helps pay for the party!
  • #11,652
  • Dec 17, 2009 9:57pm Dec 17, 2009 9:57pm
mahes,
Your usually pretty good at scaling in and out hows your mindset ?

The e/u just showed us a 80 pip, are you ready to wrestle if shes against you ?
  • #11,653
  • Dec 17, 2009 10:11pm Dec 17, 2009 10:11pm
Hate to say this cause it simply dont seem right as I hardly ever feel not up to the task but I half to say I must need a break as my mind does not seem up to it.
I surely hate to miss out.
everyone have a good day.
  • #11,654
  • Dec 17, 2009 10:19pm Dec 17, 2009 10:19pm
Quoting lilpip
mahes,
Your usually pretty good at scaling in and out hows your mindset ?

The e/u just showed us a 80 pip, are you ready to wrestle if shes against you ?
hey lilpip ,
it depends , if my size doesnt fit the move , ill cut some and readjust...
if my size is scoutlike , ill flip against fast move...

I didnt catch the move up ... havent started trading yet ... just woke up when she moved... lots of moves during asian past few days ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,655
  • Dec 17, 2009 10:35pm Dec 17, 2009 10:35pm
Hi everyone,
Looks like some choppy trading during the morning Asian session between 1.4350 and 1.4300. Just put a scout in short on the EUR/USD at 1.4402
Should be an interesting trading day. Kind regards. Ray
  • #11,656
  • Dec 17, 2009 10:38pm Dec 17, 2009 10:38pm
I mentioned previously that my buddy and I want to launch a directory for those business's that except silver and gold as payment.

For those that have a business stop by barter4silver.com check out some of the articles decide if its something you want to do and list your business free of charge.
  • #11,657
  • Dec 18, 2009 3:06am Dec 18, 2009 3:06am
Hi friends. After some time, i have discovered my trading timeframe.1M,5M, and 15M. This is really i like because of my nature. Is here somebody who uses he same?
15M-Trends and breakouts
5M-What is currently happening...
1M-thats from where to execute orders and watch current price actions(nimble, every time able to stop)
Bigger timeframe is for me stress, waiting, i cant bear such prolonged way...
Regards. Fana
  • #11,658
  • Dec 18, 2009 3:07am Dec 18, 2009 3:07am
Hi everyone,

I've been wondering quite sometime that:-

1. Are banks & institutions only take profit from retail(95%loser)? are the profits enough for them for their business?

2. who are trading news whom are making profit & whom are making loss?

Thank you, as I can see in the thread you are all making money so you are not 95% of the loser you are 5% of the winner

Best regards,
  • #11,659
  • Dec 18, 2009 3:32am Dec 18, 2009 3:32am
Quoting Fana
Hi friends. After some time, i have discovered my trading timeframe.1M,5M, and 15M. This is really i like because of my nature. Is here somebody who uses he same?
15M-Trends and breakouts
5M-What is currently happening...
1M-thats from where to execute orders and watch current price actions(nimble, every time able to stop) Bigger timeframe is for me stress, waiting, i cant bear such prolonged way...
Regards. Fana
Hi Fana

You ask the timeframes?
Read carefully this thread, described why and how to use time frames.

Regards
  • #11,660
  • Dec 18, 2009 3:34am Dec 18, 2009 3:34am
Quoting pete.alfa
Hi everyone,

I've been wondering quite sometime that:-

1. Are banks & institutions only take profit from retail(95%loser)? are the profits enough for them for their business?

2. who are trading news whom are making profit & whom are making loss?

Thank you, as I can see in the thread you are all making money so you are not 95% of the loser you are 5% of the winner

Best regards,
Hi Pete,

I can assure you that the 95% losers theory (actually even more) also applies at institutional level. At least at the end of the day and those amounts are staggering, but they are always hedged, through a variety of instruments like options etc. You must understand that their MO is different and usually longer term and their million dollar end of day loses are merely paper losses.

As for news traders I doubt there are any reliable information, however it is a known fact that central banks and major banks are often involved pre and post news, mostly as a manipulation measure and is easily detected.


Happy holidays
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