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GbpUsd 5 min breakout

  • #161
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:42pm Dec 15, 2009 3:42pm
Interesting system, joining the thread.
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
  • #162
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:51pm Dec 15, 2009 3:51pm
Cain,

My manual backtesting to Oct 1, 2009 indicates your doubling-up lot size on the opposite trade after the 1st trade loses, is highly successful. I'm showing 15 wins out of 19 trading sessions including the last 9 in a row. Given the success rate, what do you think about increasing the 2nd order to 2.5x or perhaps 3x the first losing trade? Does the thought of this make me a greedy person? Of course!

If the first trade wins...all the better.
  • #163
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:02pm Dec 15, 2009 4:02pm
Quoting scorpion
Thanks Bob,

I didn't get pipped in on the long (just about missed it), so took profit on the short.

I understand Cains adding the spread to the box but don't see what the significance is of adding it to the long side but not the short side, in forex longs and shorts are in effect the same unlike in the stockmarket.

Anyway, good pips taken by everyone again thats the most important, especially on a fiddly day like today with no real direction.

ps - Adding the 3 pip spread to the buy buffer doesn't match with the 17 pip difference you said...
Hi Scorpion,

You add the spread to the long position because the price quoted is the Ask price. You are already at the Bid price on the short position, so you don't need to add it to the short trade.

You are correct about my earlier statement about the price being 19 pips shy of a long order being filled. Old eyes I guess...and too much garbage on my chart that covered up that trigger...sorry for the misinformation. I removed that post as to not confuse anyone further. Thank you.

Point is...that spread saved a loss from occuring. And the additional saving grace is that the double-up rule would have turned that loss into a profitable day, anyway.

Take care,
BC
  • #164
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:19pm Dec 15, 2009 4:19pm
well done Cain,your system is a winner,would you perhaps share another one as a christmas present

thanks
  • #165
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:42pm Dec 15, 2009 4:42pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Cain,

My manual backtesting to Oct 1, 2009 indicates your doubling-up lot size on the opposite trade after the 1st trade loses, is highly successful. I'm showing 15 wins out of 19 trading sessions including the last 9 in a row. Given the success rate, what do you think about increasing the 2nd order to 2.5x or perhaps 3x the first losing trade? Does the thought of this make me a greedy person? Of course!

If the first trade wins...all the better.
Bob,15 wins and 4 loosers,but the loosers are for 3 lots each i.e the original buy and and the double up.
This equates to 15 wins and 12 loosing trades,one more on the loosing side and its 15wins and 15 loose .

Regards Alb
  • #166
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:09pm Dec 15, 2009 5:09pm
Quoting tbardolph
I'm looking at the Average Daily Range for guidance ... for example, if the ADR is 170, a "good" box should be 30% of that or less (51 pips) ... (or maybe 35%, or 40% ... I haven't worked out the best percentage yet) ... the logic being, if it's only moved 51 pips so far, there's room for another 119 pip move ... and, obviously, if the box is too big, there's not much room for further movement ...

This looks like something we should take in consideration, let us know when you have some more detailed info on that.


Thanks in advance!
  • #167
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:38pm Dec 15, 2009 5:38pm
Quoting scorpion
My long entry was at 16318 and the price high was 16318, some people may have been lucky and not have been pipped in.


Quoting Hova
Really nice and simple system ! i started using this today and banked nice 53 pips

and yes, im with FXOpen and got filled on 1.6317 (long) today and the price went down all the way.
Sl 50 pips, doubled the lot size of the short pos. and this was a winner

anyone thought of using us open with this system too ?


and how do you manage lot size if your not watching the screen all the time ?
we need to get a EA outta this one!

rgds 4 this nice system !

My long were at 1.632099, including spread, no longs for me today. Short at 1.62654.

When the first order is activated, and I don't have the time to see it reach the tp or sl I double the second order when the first is activated, this way there are 3 possible outcomes:
tp of the first, no activation on the second (1 win)
tp of the first, tp on the second (3 wins)
sl of the first, tp on the second (2 wins)
sl on the first, and sl on the second (3 losses)

I only do this when I don't have the time to watch the orders.

This Friday I will take some vacations and during that time till next year arrives I will conduct some back-tests testing the statistical efficiency of the first and second orders, different RR, etc...
  • #168
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:42pm Dec 15, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting dalbianc
I'm not a good mql4 programmer so I'm only trying to test some trading strategies, especially box breakout.
I'd like to discuss with you the best way to implement Cain's strategy, so we will be able to backtest it carefully. Moreover, as a lot of you, I have a work and not so time to stay in front of a pc...

Hi! Thanks for your efforts, a EA should make easier to test this for a more reasonable amount of time and switching between differents settings.
I wish I could help you.


Thanks again!
  • #169
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:43pm Dec 15, 2009 5:43pm
Quoting fxblinkers
I have done some manual testing on MT4 for the period from 31st Aug until today. I'm not sure how accurate the MT4 data is but I found it quite interesting nonetheless... I included trading days with a range above 75 pips as zero as I think the target is too far..anyway in a total of 77 trading days using Cains rules I found that there would have been 2004 pips profit..thats an average of 26 pips a day......
Very nice! I will check this on my boring vacations!
  • #170
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:45pm Dec 15, 2009 5:45pm
Quoting pikeliver
well done Cain,your system is a winner,would you perhaps share another one as a christmas present

thanks

Maybe I will...
  • #171
  • Edited 7:18pm Dec 15, 2009 6:51pm | Edited 7:18pm
Quoting arrowloopboy
Bob,15 wins and 4 loosers,but the loosers are for 3 lots each i.e the original buy and and the double up.
This equates to 15 wins and 12 loosing trades,one more on the loosing side and its 15wins and 15 loose .

Regards Alb
Hi Arrow,

Look at it this way. The 1st trade is a loss...you can't change that fact. You have to judge the 2nd trade on its own merits. In my sampling there were 19 trades with 15 of them being winners. !5 wins times 2 lots = 30 units of profit. 4 losses times 2 lots = 8 units of loss. Net profit on the 2nd trade is significant with a net of 22 profit units.

Yes, the 1st trade was a loser 19 times. Subtract 19 from 22 and you still have a positive gain of 3 units including both trades. The significance is that without the 2nd trade, you would have lost 19 units. The doubled-up 2nd trade more than cancels out ALL of the losses! It doesn't get much better than that!

Good trading!
BC
  • #172
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:47am Dec 16, 2009 4:47am
sell stop 1.6246 sl 1.6281 tp 1.6210 result -36 pips (0.1 lots)

buy stop 1.6284 (spread factored in) sl 1.6246 tp 1.6324 (0.2 lots)result 40 pips profit.

I like this system would indeed add to my repertoire of system thanks cain.
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
  • #173
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:02am Dec 16, 2009 5:02am
Quoting okehiedon
sell stop 1.6246 sl 1.6281 tp 1.6210 result -36 pips (0.1 lots)

buy stop 1.6284 (spread factored in) sl 1.6246 tp 1.6324 (0.2 lots)result 40 pips profit.

I like this system would indeed add to my repertoire of system thanks cain.
same 4 me thx @ cain !
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #174
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:31am Dec 17, 2009 2:31am
Not liking the size of that spread this morning,going to look at Eur/Usd at 8 instead,its being doing o.k
  • #175
  • Dec 17, 2009 3:48am Dec 17, 2009 3:48am
Didn't like the box size, so I didn't trade. Would've closed for 75 pips on the sell.
  • #176
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:00am Dec 17, 2009 4:00am
I love the cabel 73 pips banked today, dont know if i should cancel the other ? :/


im in love with a system

you should look @ us open for a quick 10-20 pip move, fast money right there
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #177
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:06am Dec 17, 2009 4:06am
Quoting Cain
This looks like something we should take in consideration, let us know when you have some more detailed info on that.


Thanks in advance!
I'll take 50% of the daily average

On GBP/USD its 170 pips right now, so if the box is more than 85pips, i would not take the trade
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #178
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:30am Dec 17, 2009 4:30am
Great strategy, thank you, Cain
  • #179
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:54am Dec 17, 2009 4:54am
Quoting dalbianc
I'm not able to implement this part of the strategy. How to find if an order was closed by a stoploss or a takeprofit? not always OrderClosePrice()==OrderStopLoss() is the right condition! In which way have I to examine the orders history?? and then which is the right way to double lot size?
I need same sample code to understand!

I hope someone will give us some ideas to implement the EA! thanks
if (OrderProfit() < 0) // it was not a TP but a loss

I hope it helps.
  • #180
  • Dec 17, 2009 5:00am Dec 17, 2009 5:00am
There is no way you canchange the lotsize of a pending order using the OrderModify() function, you need to delete and recreate the order... or just add another order.

I'm a developer if you need help making the EA ask me I'll be happy to help.
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