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DeMark TDST Trading

  • #461
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:41pm Dec 15, 2009 3:41pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Foggy,

Yes, I realise that any methodology will give some false signals no matter how good of a trader you are. I have read some of Demarks stuff and I just find it a bit confusing. Even though I find Demark's writing a bit confusing I find your TD indicator quite useful especially for locating areas of support and resistance. The GBPUSD trade I posted was just support and resistance and it was a really nice set up. From your example I see what you mean about the 9th candle and I will take a closer look to see if trading those breaks looks profitable...
Hey Dave,

Yes, if you read Jason Pearls book about DeMark, although very good, you will be even more confused. There are loads of different types of DeMark methods and they take a lot to get used to although so far I just trade the TDST support/resistance levels. However, I am looking into another way of trading the TD setups using my thrust method and at first glance it looks really good, but the stoploss might be a bit higher as it works better on higher timeframes like 30 minute and higher, I will post once I do some more testing over the festive period.

To answer your question about the line that changes colour and disapears. Right, the rule of DeMarks TD Setups is that each bar must close lower or higher than four bars earlier until we get nine in a row of the same direction and that is your TD Setup. The reason the line keeps changing colour and disapearing is because it is a possible TDST level. It might be green because the current bar is about to close higher than four bars before it. Then it will disapear because the candle comes below the close of four bars at which point it might change to red because it might now close below the close of four bars before and therefore be a possible TD Buy setup instead. So this can change all the time on the price action of each individual bar. Watch carefully at a current setup and look where the close of four bars ago is, then watch when the price suddenly goes over there the whole count will disapear. Think you will get it now.

Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #462
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:45pm Dec 15, 2009 3:45pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Inbox,

If you notice in my postings I never talk about any indicators other than the TD and BAT. I don't talk about them because they have nothing to do with this thread. So I would rather not post my indicators and templates out of respect for the originator of this thread. Believe me, the indicators on my chart will not help you trade with this methodology on a 5 min chart. Learn price action and support & resistance and you'll be able to trade any TF chart. Follow Foggies analysis and learn form him, he does a really good job of analysing...
Thanks Dave for the respect, although I wouldn't have been offended in any way but you are right it would be good to keep the thread clean as there are a million different ways we could try to alter and add things when it is best people just try it out, see what the likes of yourself and I am doing and maybe adapt it to their own methods.

Thanks also for the praise on my longer-term analysis, I was begining to wonder if anyone was actually getting anything out of it and whether it was worth continuing the postings.

Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #463
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:50pm Dec 15, 2009 3:50pm
To give the readers of my thread a little taster of what I am currently looking at I have taken a snapshot of the current USDJPY 4 hour chart and jotted down a few notes. Stoploss, risk and exits are not decided yet but I will either look to enter using the same method I do on the 5 minute chart or zoom in and hunt for opportunities on a smaller timeframe assuming it also goes along with my longer-term analysis.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj-example.jpg Size: 191 KB


Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #464
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:48pm Dec 15, 2009 4:48pm
Just a quick post to update my analysis as I have been otherwise engaged tonight so haven't found the time to do my full analysis but will post some charts and stuff tomorrow morning.

I am still actively trading EURGBP (Sell), GBPCHF (Buy), GBPJPY (Sell) and USDCAD (Buy). However, I will be adding EURUSD to that tomorrow (Buy) as we will be on the 9th bar of a TD Buy Setup and hopefully we will breach the BAT tomorrow at 1.4497 as we came within 5 pips of doing so today.

Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #465
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:52pm Dec 15, 2009 4:52pm
Hi Foggy,

On the 4hr UJ chart. You have a 9 count sell set up. The smallish candles that occur right after the 9th candles close don't trigger the short because the smallish doji type candles don't close below the bullish thrust candle, is that correct? Ok...moving higher we get several bullish thrust candles and then some bearish reversal candles. Which of those 2 cadles that I have marked would you enter short on?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj t4.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #466
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:03pm Dec 15, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Foggy,

On the 4hr UJ chart. You have a 9 count sell set up. The smallish candles that occur right after the 9th candles close don't trigger the short because the smallish doji type candles don't close below the bullish thrust candle, is that correct? Ok...moving higher we get several bullish thrust candles and then some bearish reversal candles. Which of those 2 cadles that I have marked would you enter short on?
After the sell setup I am looking for a bearish thrust, so as you can see this doesn't occur until 13 bars on your chart and 12 on mine if I remember correctly. Our data is slightly different so the entries wouldn't be the same but basically we get the same result. Regardless of what else is going on the entry rule is simply, after a sell setup go short on the close of the first bearish thrust bar and after a buy setup go long on the close of the first bullish thrust whenever they appear. On your picture though I would take the second candle you have marked because on your chart it is the first bearish thrust.

Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #467
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:10am Dec 16, 2009 2:10am
As you will know I posted my GBPCHF long entry from yesterday at 1.6834 but didn't have time to enter it on the demo account. Anyway I did the calculations manually on my trade management file and it shows that GBPCHF has now hit the would be 5% target for a complete 7% profit. So far this week there have been 2 trades, one loser with GBPJPY and the winner explained above so thats a nett 5% profit so far for the week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF-5%-Target.jpg Size: 193 KB


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Click to Enlarge Name: Entry-Details.jpg Size: 223 KB


Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #468
  • Dec 16, 2009 3:15am Dec 16, 2009 3:15am
Attached Image


AUDUSD

Remaining on the sidelines here although we are very close to the lower BAT support level of 0.8893. Should we breach this level I will start to look for opportunities to go long on a short-term basis with the view of selling once we remove a bullish thrust to the close.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.Daily.16.12.09.jpg Size: 185 KB


Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #469
  • Dec 16, 2009 7:53am Dec 16, 2009 7:53am
Interesting developments seen today in EURGBP and GBPCHF as both pairs test their respective TDST support and resistance levels on the daily chart. There are two possible outcomes here which should provide plenty of opportunities into the new year.

EURGBP

Attached Image


With EURGBP we are currently testing the 0.8901 TDST support level on the daily chart. Should this level be removed to a close this will confirm the bearish scenario and I will keep looking to add short positions right up to the ninth bars low of the TD Sell Setup. However, should we get a bounce here this tells me that the bulls are fighting back and while we remain bullish on the weekly chart I would view this as significant and I would start to look for opportunities to go long with an initial target of the ninth bars low at 0.9065.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP-16.12.09.jpg Size: 174 KB


GBPCHF

Attached Image


With GBPCHF we are currently testing TDST resistance at 1.7000 on the daily chart. Should this level be removed to a close tonight this will confirm the bullish scenario and I will keep looking to add to my long position all the way down to the ninth bars high at 1.6622. However, should we get a bounce from this level this will alert me to the fact that the bears might be ready for a fight back in which case I will look to take short positions with a target of 1.6622 initially but will hold my long incase this doesn't play out as a free trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF-Daily-16.12.09.jpg Size: 193 KB


With both pairs still above their trend breakout points things are still far from decided but I will be prepared for either scenario.

Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #470
  • Dec 16, 2009 8:10am Dec 16, 2009 8:10am
Attached Image


EURUSD

Currently on the ninth bar of a TD Buy Setup I have taken the decision to look for buying opportunities at this point with a view of a move to the 1.4966 level initially. Following the removal of the TDST support level to a close yesterday this market has turned bearish on the daily timeframe as far as DeMark is concerned. I had hoped we would take out the lower bat level of 1.4497 to give further confirmation of this bearish scenario before we completed the 9 count buy setup however this is still a possibility. To sum up, while I am looking for longs I wouldn't really expect to get any signals until the lower BAT has been removed but with the TD buy setup completing today we can't rule out a rally from here which would then leave the lower BAT intact and retain the bullish outlook from a BAT perspective.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.Daily.16.12.09.jpg Size: 183 KB


Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #471
  • Dec 16, 2009 9:14pm Dec 16, 2009 9:14pm
Hi Foggy,

I know that these trades my not be text book Demark trades but I am finding the indicator and your explanations very helpful.

Ok we have sell set up (Red 2). Price gets rejected @ 1.6308 and is rejected by the resistance level of the previous buy set up. I've marked the high of the 9th candle of the sell set up (red 2) @ 1.6319. Price gets to 1.6319 and gets rejected from that area. Price comes down and goes below the 1.6308 level and that is my entry. Out at 1.6275 for 33 pips. Any feedback would be appreciated.
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  • #472
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:11am Dec 17, 2009 1:11am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Foggy,

I know that these trades my not be text book Demark trades but I am finding the indicator and your explanations very helpful.

Ok we have sell set up (Red 2). Price gets rejected @ 1.6308 and is rejected by the resistance level of the previous buy set up. I've marked the high of the 9th candle of the sell set up (red 2) @ 1.6319. Price gets to 1.6319 and gets rejected from that area. Price comes down and goes below the 1.6308 level and that is my entry. Out at 1.6275 for 33 pips. Any feedback would be appreciated.
No problem Dave,

If you find a way to use the indicator then post and other people might find using it that way suits how they trade. Although remember, the down trend red nine counts are TD Buy Setups and the up trend green nine counts are TD Sell Setups.

Another nice trade though, good stuff!

Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #473
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:24am Dec 17, 2009 1:24am
Attached Image


AUDUSD

Since posting a bearish weekly outside bar several weeks ago the bears have made good progress here and have now taken out the daily BAT support at 0.8893. I will now wait until we get a bullish thrust bar at which point I will look for opportunities to go long in the short-term with the view to sell once we then close below the low of a bullish thrust.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.Daily.17.12.09.jpg Size: 163 KB


Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #474
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:39am Dec 17, 2009 1:39am
Attached Image


EURGBP

This pair is now developing into a classic bear BAT move and will now target the 0.8475 level initially. The bears have removed the TDST support at 0.8901 to a close which only goes to strengthen their position in this market. At this point I would rather sit on the sidelines and wait for further developments with a view of selling at a higher level. Although this level may well be out of reach I see the 0.9065/69 area as a big barrier for the bulls and would look to sell rallies to that level. In the mean time, should we make any bullish thrusts and fail to get up to the 0.9065/69 level I will look to sell the removal of the would be bullish thrusts to a close.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP-17.12.09.jpg Size: 183 KB


Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #475
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:09am Dec 17, 2009 2:09am
Attached Image


EURJPY

Since the bear squeeze move and resulting removal of the final bullish thrusts low around the 132 level I was hoping to see a move back up to test these levels with the view of adding shorts. However, the chance of seeing this level anytime soon appears to be fading. We did however make a bullish thrust candle on Monday and I now see the removal of this candles low at 129.61 as confirmation that the bears are ready to make another assault on the 126.88 level initially. Therefore, I will remain on the sidelines with a view of looking for selling opportunities should this low be removed to the close tonight.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY-Daily-17.12.09.jpg Size: 167 KB


The other chart I have attached is the 5 minute chart from yesterday. So far I can't seem to pick out the correct direction on this pair and really good setups keep appearing when I am on the sidelines. This one is particularly good, with only 14 pips risk followed by a 200 pip move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 17.12.09-DeMark.jpg Size: 200 KB


Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #476
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:31am Dec 17, 2009 2:31am
Attached Image


EURUSD

We have seen some significant moves by the bears over the past few sessions with the removal of the TDST support level to a close followed by the removal of the lower BAT support. Things are not looking good for the Euro bull at the moment and currently I can see the bears testing the 1.3900 level initially into 2010 following a pull back and quite possibly the 1.3120 level later. I had planned to look for buying opportunities following the nine count buy setup which was completed yesterday however, with the removal of the lower BAT support now I would prefer to see a bullish thrust bar before following this particular strategy as the risk remains to the downside until the bulls can force a temporary bottom signalled by a bullish thrust. On the chart below I have added my ideal scenario at this point, I would like to see the bears test the 1.4302 TDST support level and see the bulls fight back and place a short-term bottom. Should this scenario play out I would then look for opportunities to go long with a view of selling once a bullish thrust bars low is removed to a close.

To sum up, I am on the sidelines until we either get a bullish thrust around current levels or we test the TDST support of 1.4302. I see no reason to get involved on the bear side of this market at current levels.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.Daily.17.12.09.jpg Size: 173 KB


Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #477
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:55am Dec 17, 2009 2:55am
Attached Image


GBPCHF

Although I have been looking to go long for the last couple of weeks and the bulls remain in control so far as my BAT analysis is concerned I can't ignore the current price action around the TDST resistance. As you can see on the chart below, the last time we tested a TDST resistance level was way back in August and this produced a failure and substancial bear move. Taking this into consideration, I will take any chances to go short at current levels until the TDST level is removed to a close. On the bull side of this market I will hold my long position for the 1.7723 target and look to add to that should we remove the TDST level to a close.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF-Daily-17.12.09.jpg Size: 217 KB


Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #478
  • Dec 17, 2009 3:20am Dec 17, 2009 3:20am
Attached Image


GBPJPY

I was looking for selling opportunities as we approached the bullish thrusts low at 145.41 with no success. As we have now bounced off the 60 day SMA again and we sit right around the lows of of two bullish thrusts I would prefer to stand aside and await the removal of the 145.23 and 41 levels to a close with a view of looking for selling opportunities. I don't currently see any reason to get involved in the bull side of this market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY-17.12.09-Daily.jpg Size: 207 KB


Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #479
  • Dec 17, 2009 3:44am Dec 17, 2009 3:44am
Attached Image


GBPUSD

Following the removal of the MA levels to a close the bears took temporary control of this pair. However, while the bulls remained in control on the daily and weekly timeframe I prefered to sit on the sidelines and await further developments. At this point I will remian on the sidelines until either the bears can remove the lower BAT support at 1.5988 or the bulls can remove a bearish thrusts high to a close.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD-Daily-17.12.09.jpg Size: 202 KB


Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #480
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:02am Dec 17, 2009 4:02am
Attached Image


USDCAD

Since the bulls removed the daily BAT resistance some weeks ago this pair has been bullish on the daily timeframe. After a bit of a struggle it looks like the bulls are gaining some traction here however as we are moving ever closer to the daily TDST resistance level I would rather wait to see how this pair develops around this level with a view of taking shorts on a failure followed by longs after a pull back.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD-Daily-17.12.09.jpg Size: 173 KB


Cheers
Foggytrader
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