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Silent Service Method

  • #6,281
  • Edited 12:51am Dec 15, 2009 12:34am | Edited 12:51am
Ran across this stock while looking at my volume filter. It burst through resistance around $16 on December 1st and has now retraced back to support and has bullish PA. You cannot see it on these charts, but it is also on its 20 day MA. Looking further back in time, not included on the weekly posted here, there is a solid top at $18, which explains the convincing fashion in which $18 is rejected on this weekly chart. So perhaps this could be a better shorting opportunity than long. Maybe wait for it to retrace against the bearish weekly PA and wait for a bearish entry signal on the daily. If it goes past $18, wait for retrace and bullish PA at $18. I will be watching............ Thoughts welcome as always.
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  • #6,282
  • Dec 15, 2009 1:55am Dec 15, 2009 1:55am
Quoting clockwork71
Somewhere in FF, there is a thread that was started by PeterFM, that looks at that specific question. He found that it was less profitable in the long run. In fact, let me ask this question:

"If you are taking partial profits, how often are you taking partial losses?" That's always been my thinking anyways. However, there are a few great traders in my own group that do it - so I can't really knock it.
yeh its all depends on your time horizon you trade on I guess... Id say you either do one: full losses and full profits, or partial losses and partial profits. I do the latter as Im often try to scalp/job a position trade with scalping, all depends on style.

You could feasibly take the partial loss, full profit targets I guess, twould be intersting
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #6,283
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:52am Dec 15, 2009 4:52am
Quoting clockwork71
The British Pound - That currency that wouldn't hurry up and die. LOL

Ahahah... yeah right
  • #6,284
  • Dec 15, 2009 6:33am Dec 15, 2009 6:33am
Kiwi
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  • #6,285
  • Dec 15, 2009 7:44am Dec 15, 2009 7:44am
Hi clockwork, why not wait for the monthly pins to break ? or is the idea to keep the stop smaller
  • #6,286
  • Dec 15, 2009 8:53am Dec 15, 2009 8:53am
Quoting clockwork71
Somewhere in FF, there is a thread that was started by PeterFM, that looks at that specific question. He found that it was less profitable in the long run. In fact, let me ask this question:

"If you are taking partial profits, how often are you taking partial losses?" That's always been my thinking anyways. However, there are a few great traders in my own group that do it - so I can't really knock it.
This is it: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=12273

Good info there...

Cheers!
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #6,287
  • Dec 15, 2009 8:54am Dec 15, 2009 8:54am
If I understand correctly, Chris is using the monthly PB for direction, i.e, he is only interest in shortin this pair. So you move to a lower timeframe and look for shorts. I am sure the small stop loss is part of it, but I think they main reason is, based on the longer time frame, shorts are higher probability plays than longs at this moment for this pair.

Kulu

Quoting advfntrader
Hi clockwork, why not wait for the monthly pins to break ? or is the idea to keep the stop smaller
  • #6,288
  • Dec 15, 2009 9:23am Dec 15, 2009 9:23am
Echoing my last post, mathematically scaling out is not an optimum strategy. It's a "feel good" solution. It makes you feel good that you've taken profit at some point even though you finally get taken out at BE (there is nothing wrong with BE, but in the long run, if your risk/reward is out of whack, you won't be better off scaling out). Not to say that you can't be successful doing this, I know traders that scale out and are profitable traders. It all comes down to what works for you.

But again, everything is not based on mathematics, just do what works for your situation.

Kulu

Quoting HouseTrader
This is it: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=12273

Good info there...

Cheers!
  • #6,289
  • Dec 15, 2009 10:04am Dec 15, 2009 10:04am
Quoting kulu
If I understand correctly, Chris is using the monthly PB for direction, i.e, he is only interest in shortin this pair. So you move to a lower timeframe and look for shorts. I am sure the small stop loss is part of it, but I think they main reason is, based on the longer time frame, shorts are higher probability plays than longs at this moment for this pair.

Kulu

Exactly. Once it breaks the monthly pins.....it becomes a longer term play for me. Until then, I will sell any bearish PA. It is starting to look like it won't be today. (no real surprise) So I have stops moved up to shortly above the 4 hour pinbar that just formed.
  • #6,290
  • Dec 15, 2009 10:05am Dec 15, 2009 10:05am
Quoting advfntrader
Hi clockwork, why not wait for the monthly pins to break ? or is the idea to keep the stop smaller
I would also point out that these bars are setting up for shorts......mainly next year would be my guess. 2 monthly pinbars could point to a trend change.
  • #6,291
  • Dec 15, 2009 10:44am Dec 15, 2009 10:44am
Chris
what 's your target for EU .
thanks
  • #6,292
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:27am Dec 15, 2009 11:27am
Did anyone play this bullish daily PB on GBP/CHF? I thought it looked good enough to put in a buy stop overnight @ 1.6847 and woke up with a few pips in the account. Lots of resistance above ~ 1.70 though...


http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...ily-121509.gif

I find that I'm getting into a routine of doing all my daily scans around 6:30-7pm or so and place any buy/sell stops then, then let the trades execute (if they get hit) while I sleep. Forced discipline!

Also with the FXPro demo feed for charting, their daily bars close at 5 or 6pm EST (I believe that's midnight London or GMT) which is much better than waiting around for my MB Trading Feed (i.e. my trading platform) to close the bar @ midnight!
  • #6,293
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:34am Dec 15, 2009 11:34am
Quoting InfinitySL
Did anyone play this bullish daily PB on GBP/CHF?...

Good call
am long but demo
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  • #6,294
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:53am Dec 15, 2009 11:53am
Quoting samer960
Chris
what 's your target for EU .
thanks
Hey Samer Big bro
am not answering your Question to Chris but i might show my view for this pair

at the moment we are on a daily S range , i believe it might hold from here or at least to test the next level and then rebound for a while, the Flat lines in the Cloud will act as a point of attraction for the price and then it might get rejected to continue the down move
my 2 cents

good luck everyone
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  • #6,295
  • Dec 15, 2009 12:07pm Dec 15, 2009 12:07pm
Quoting samer960
Chris
what 's your target for EU .
thanks

Short term 1.45 - long term 1.38 or so.
  • #6,296
  • Dec 15, 2009 12:27pm Dec 15, 2009 12:27pm
hey warrior
thanks for your reply . as u can see the first target in your reply is the same as chris short term .
maybe it is time to book some profit . +323pip
thanks

Quoting vic_elc
Hey Samer Big bro
am not answering your Question to Chris but i might show my view for this pair

at the moment we are on a daily S range , i believe it might hold from here or at least to test the next level and then rebound for a while, the Flat lines in the Cloud will act as a point of attraction for the price and then it might get rejected to continue the down move
my 2 cents

good luck everyone
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  • #6,297
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:00pm Dec 15, 2009 2:00pm
Quoting samer960
hey warrior
thanks for your reply . as u can see the first target in your reply is the same as chris short term .
maybe it is time to book some profit . +323pip
thanks
great we are working on the same targets
i think it is a good idea to take some profits
Good luck samer
  • #6,298
  • Dec 16, 2009 1:02am Dec 16, 2009 1:02am
I think it's time to bail out of my Gold short position. Why lose about +600 pips... Not willing to give anything back. Trend is up. LOL
  • #6,299
  • Dec 16, 2009 3:13am Dec 16, 2009 3:13am
Hi all, been slowly reading this thread the past couple of days & finding it very interesting. Currently only about 300 posts into it but would love to know peoples opinion of the below trade on the eur/aud. Was it a trade anyone else took or considered? The blue lines are what i considered to be the zones & the dashed lines have been my long entries. I kinda feel at this stage its more luck then anything as I've made nearly 200 pips on my entry in 24 hours & now trying to plan my next move...i.e should I b/e, take some profit etc

Quick rundown on me I am only a few months into my trading 'career' & still learning loads all day, started out as most by raeding babypips then losing some money, trying various indicators & systems but nothing hit home. Then discovered J16 & now Clockwork. I see myself at the breaking even stage & taking profit is definitely my weakness atm. I live in Aus, have 2 young girls & work long hours with little time to myself so long timeframes & from what I have read so far pure PA very much suits me & most importantly makes sense.
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Learning to be rigid in my rules & flexible in my expectations
  • #6,300
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:05am Dec 16, 2009 4:05am
Quoting wh1zz0
You know, I would not really be surprised if GBP blows up (but still concerned about the low volume).. market may try to price in the anticipated 1.8 CPI plus checking out how that GU chart looks, price just sitting on top of the daily trend line having bounced off the 61 fib level. I'm long 1% on this one (just a little swing play though). Also watching my main trade (gold short) VERY closely.

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As anticipated. I'm fully out of Gold short as well.
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