Are there really traders with 100% Success Rate??? | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Is There Any Simplest Method To Success In Forex? 63 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Forex success, are there any stories? 3 replies

Attachments: Are there really traders with 100% Success Rate???
Exit Attachments

Are there really traders with 100% Success Rate???

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 15, 2009 5:30am Dec 15, 2009 5:30am
Well i tried my level best to find a trading method with 100% success rate but didnt find that kind of method from last three years. Though my success rate is very good from my current method which is near 80/85 % & sometimes below that average but not that 100%. If i trade for example 10-trades in a month than i lose 2/3 trades and thats for sure... & wins 7/8 out of those 10 trades but losing trades cost me much because of my high level of stoploss.
Anyways i saw some statements of live traders from different sites like Zulu & other sites and also saw statements of live traders of fxcm mini and micro account winners still there is no trader with that 100% success ratio. Some traders with no losing trades in a month than in other month they have losing trades & vice-versa.
I was wondering is really there are tradrs with that 100% success rate??? This is possible? Or its impossible???
I want to be a trader with a 100% winning trades but still it seems impossible to me. Seems still there is no method which give 100% success result. Well Whats your experince , success ratio and comments?
Thanks.
  • #2
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:42am Dec 15, 2009 5:42am
Quoting PipHacker
Well i tried my level best to find a trading method with 100% success rate but didnt find that kind of method from last three years. Though my success rate is very good from my current method which is near 80/85 % & sometimes below that average but not that 100%. If i trade for example 10-trades in a month than i lose 2/3 trades and thats for sure... & wins 7/8 out of those 10 trades but losing trades cost me much because of my high level of stoploss.
Anyways i saw some statements of live traders from different sites like Zulu & other sites and...

That is one of the ways to get a high win rate but a high win rate with a poor risk vs return will usual yield you poor results, depending on how out of shape that figure is.

As for winning 100% of the time. After 3 years you still have not clicked that it is impossible to achieve the above. Yes in the short term you may have some success and if you never take a loss (no stop loss trading) and manage not to go boom then yes you could also argue but seriously 100% is not needed to make something in this realm and the longevity of it is impossible to do.

You dont need to search any longer. Settle down with a few tried methods and over the course of the year weed out what you dont like and really work on what you do.

Razor
  • #3
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:46am Dec 15, 2009 5:46am
100% winning trades and 0% loosing trades? Not very likely.

100% success rate in terms of following your plan and accepting the outcomes of trading that (well tested) plan? Not easy to do, but can be very rewarding.... far more so than chasing a 100% profitable trades objective!
  • #4
  • Dec 15, 2009 6:26am Dec 15, 2009 6:26am
Quoting PipHacker
but losing trades cost me much because of my high level of stoploss.

I was wondering is really there are tradrs with that 100% success rate??? This is possible? Or its impossible???
100% success rate? No.

Pay attention to the bold section above (I highlighted). You are a profitable trader when your winners are bigger that your losers. At the point that someone can be "right" only 40% of the times and still be profitable.
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #5
  • Dec 15, 2009 6:48am Dec 15, 2009 6:48am
100% win rate? You need Merlin's Amazing Strategy!!!
  • #6
  • Dec 15, 2009 6:58am Dec 15, 2009 6:58am
there is absolutely NO method which has 100% success rate, except if you are a bankster which works at goldman SACKS or jpm and gets oral satisfaction by barack hussein o.

all trading methods are just an edge. even with 60% success rate you can make a whole lot of money.

the 100% success rate you might have seen can only be from muppets, which accept big drawdown levels. there is no other possibility since in terms of orderflows you have a good chance that price comes back to specific levels to fill the left remaining orders of a big orderblock waiting there. there is no magic in using 400 pip stops...

but trading is about picking the trades where the odds are in your favor and bail with a small loss if the trade does not work out- if it wasn't that way, we pretty much wouldnt need any system. check for the weekly trend, enter according to the trend- use 1000p stops. good luck.



Quoting PipHacker
Well i tried my level best to find a trading method with 100% success rate but didnt find that kind of method from last three years. Though my success rate is very good from my current method which is near 80/85 % & sometimes below that average but not that 100%. If i trade for example 10-trades in a month than i lose 2/3 trades and thats for sure... & wins 7/8 out of those 10 trades but losing trades cost me much because of my high level of stoploss.
Anyways i saw some statements of live traders from different sites like Zulu & other sites and...
  • #7
  • Dec 15, 2009 6:59am Dec 15, 2009 6:59am
There's nothing wrong with being wrong sometimes. Chasing 100% success rate will get you nowhere. Losing trades are inevitable and are very useful, they keep the thought of "being unbeatable" away.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #8
  • Dec 15, 2009 7:02am Dec 15, 2009 7:02am
Quoting Porkpie
100% win rate? You need Merlin's Amazing Strategy!!!
I was waiting for that to come up
  • #9
  • Dec 15, 2009 7:03am Dec 15, 2009 7:03am
Quoting Porkpie
100% win rate? You need Merlin's Amazing Strategy!!!
Porkpie, the wizard himself stated that this little AMAZING secret is 99,9% accuracy.... ... far form 100%!

Cheers!
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #10
  • Dec 15, 2009 10:54am Dec 15, 2009 10:54am
I know a trader in south africa who has a 100% winning but few trades of his which gets stuck run in drawdown till prices reverse back which happen always.

He has a 70-80% winning rate in first attempt.

The rest of the trades run in drawdown till prices come back and most of trades he again closes them in profit rather then closing at break even.

No stop losses...each of his trade is opened with a mini lot (commensurate with account equity) and in case if a trade gets stuck, let it run in drawdown till prices reverse back.

Extreme Example: in dec 2007, he got stuck in e/u long position of 1.43..the prices crashed after that reaching 1.24 in feb 2009 but his trade was open and he exited the trade at 1.50 in nov 2009.

That was an extreme example but most of his drawdown trades gets closed within a day to 2 months when prices reverse back.

He had not stop trading when a position gets stuck in a drawdown...it is plan in such a way (based on account equity) that if he gets stuck, he has enough equity to run a drawdown.

It is not an advisable method of trading but this method has brought him 100% success rate.
  • #11
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:14am Dec 15, 2009 11:14am
Quoting kingfisher
It is not an advisable method of trading but this method has brought him 100% success rate.
whats the point waiting for months just to get out slightly above be?
in the meantime opportunities got left behind. margin was used for nothing.
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #12
  • Edited 11:33am Dec 15, 2009 11:22am | Edited 11:33am
There is a management theory floating around at the moment that proposes to interpret Pareto's Principle in such a way as to produce what is called Superstar Management. The theory's supporters claim that since 20 percent of your people produce 80 percent of your results you should focus your limited time on managing only that 20 percent, the superstars. The theory is flawed, as we are discussing here because it overlooks the fact that 80 percent of your time should be spent doing what is really important. Helping the good become better is a better use of your time than helping the great become terrific. Apply the Pareto Principle to all you do, but use it wisely.

http://management.about.com/cs/gener...reto081202.htm

Ride the winners and cut the losers and never be discouraged that more oftern than not, the majority of your trades will be losers and the great majority of your trades will be a wash (smaller winner or small loser). It’s the small minority of trades that will make you a consistent winner at the end of the year and over the course of a lifetime. Trend trading is boring and will probably give you a home run every one in ten trades with a couple doubles and triples in between.

http://www.chrisperruna.com/2009/02/...ple-8020-rule/
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #13
  • Dec 15, 2009 12:39pm Dec 15, 2009 12:39pm
Quoting silverheat
whats the point waiting for months just to get out slightly above be?
in the meantime opportunities got left behind. margin was used for nothing.


That's called the "opportunity cost"... waiting months to prove a supposed 100% rate and let lots of good trades pass away. That's a losing position, IMHO. He's only trying to prove he's right, no offense intended.

Cheers!
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #14
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:15pm Dec 15, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting Porkpie
100% win rate? You need Merlin's Amazing Strategy!!!
.......or the Crystal Ball indicator (attached) + Martingale MM.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Crystal Ball.ex4   3 KB | 799 downloads
  • #15
  • Dec 16, 2009 8:40am Dec 16, 2009 8:40am
no, there is no such thing as 100% success rate
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #16
  • Dec 16, 2009 9:32am Dec 16, 2009 9:32am
How do you know what is or is not possible? Unless you've tested an almost infinite number of hypotheses and eliminated them all then you could not possibly know what can be achieved. In light that there probably are an infinite number of hypotheses, then there probably is a method that has been 100% successful, at least up until this point in time.

And remember, past performance is absolutely no guarantee - just because a method has performed incredibly in the past doesn't mean it isn't going to fail catastrophically when you bet your life savings on it. You don't know how many balls are in the bag, you can only observe the statistics and you should be aware of the precariousness of drawing conclusions from them, especially when you're betting your money on it.

Why do you need to win 100% of the time anyway? Shoot for the stars by all means! Just don't be disappointed if you only get the moon. I think it was Confucius who observed that most people don't shoot at all.
  • #17
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:50am Dec 17, 2009 4:50am
Quoting birdt
How do you know what is or is not possible? Unless you've tested an almost infinite number of hypotheses and eliminated them all then you could not possibly know what can be achieved. In light that there probably are an infinite number of hypotheses, then there probably is a method that has been 100% successful, at least up until this point in time.

And remember, past performance is absolutely no guarantee - just because a method has performed incredibly in the past doesn't mean it isn't going to fail catastrophically when you bet your life savings...
Ah too true, it takes me to the writings of Nicholas Taleb and his room of monkeys typing away. If there was an infinite number there would quite literally have to be 1 that would eventually type the Illiad word for word. This is quite relevant to your post and that it would be subjective to todays results. The next challenge would be relevant to Nicholas' next question, would you invest you life savings, or a portion on it that the method and its working from today onwards, similiar to would you invest in that particular hero monkey to write Odyssey.

It is interesting that there are some out there that feel the compelling need to hold what could only be described as the holy grail, when there are plenty of challis' that offer sustanable results. I myself would prefer the other challis', I at least know at a conscious level that I need to employee a level of discipline in future trading. The question is if you had the challis off 100% perfection, would you place your life savings into the next trade just because it has performed that way in the past.

Having such a thing is like playing russian roulette. There is absolutly no certainty, even with a 100% system, that the outcome of future trades is going to be 100%, therefore I would bet that most Sane traders would still approach the model with risk management in mind, which really defeats the need to find it when there are thousands of ways to trade with exactly the same approach.

Really the above, after re reading sounds like a pile of philosophical dribble but since I has taken me soooo long to write and methodically (randomly) think out Im going to hit the submit button

Razor
  • #18
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:58am Dec 17, 2009 4:58am
Central Banks??
Life is a school for the soul
  • #19
  • Dec 17, 2009 5:09am Dec 17, 2009 5:09am
Quoting Razor_trader
Really the above, after re reading sounds like a pile of philosophical dribble but since I has taken me soooo long to write and methodically (randomly) think out Im going to hit the submit button

Razor
hehe, yeah you did kinda flub that last sentence.

But what is 100% wins anyway ??

One guys career is one trade. A winner. 100%

Another goes for 1 pip. He very carefully takes only solid breakouts and hasn't lost yet. In that case - 1 pip isn't a very wise target. Still, he's only 100% until that dreaded stop loss takes away his precious record.

And for what ?? What's the point ?? You don't get paid for a perfect record.

Talk about looking for success in the wrong places.

100% account growth would be a worthy goal. But, win rate has to be multiplied by risk/reward to have any real meaning.

(I might get challenged on that last sentence, but I think you get the idea)
  • #20
  • Dec 17, 2009 5:22am Dec 17, 2009 5:22am
Quoting Razor_trader
Ah too true, it takes me to the writings of Nicholas Taleb and his room of monkeys typing away. If there was an infinite number there would quite literally have to be 1 that would eventually type the Illiad word for word. This is quite relevant to your post and that it would be subjective to todays results. The next challenge would be relevant to Nicholas' next question, would you invest you life savings, or a portion on it that the method and its working from today onwards, similiar to would you invest in that particular hero monkey to write...
I couldn't say it better, my friend!

The platonic fold is where we see that in theory, it's possible to a monkey in this infinite amount of monkeys to write the Odyssey. but what's the probability? It's relevant to the point that it's worth the time you have to sit and wait for the monkeys? I guess it's not. I guess we don't have enough lifetime to see it...

As i stated before, no one needs a 100% system, only if it's only for the purpose and feeling of "being right"... a 40% accuracy system, when aplied with correct MM and since your winners are bigger than your losers can make a profitable run...

Cheers!

PS: I just love my signature....
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
1 trader viewing now