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Silent Service Method

  • #6,241
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:45pm Dec 14, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting calderone
I'd like to get Chris's take on this as well.

Don't be frustrated. My trades have been in and out of profit just like yours (ej, eucad). This is a nasty time of year to be trading and I didn't give my hopes up. Hang in there, you're in the right thread.
Also, I must add this time of year - it might be a little wiser to take profits at S/R, mainly because the lower volume makes for odd movement.

Chris
  • #6,242
  • Dec 14, 2009 2:03pm Dec 14, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting clockwork71
Also, I must add this time of year - it might be a little wiser to take profits at S/R, mainly because the lower volume makes for odd movement.

Chris

Have you considered scaling out of your positions? Just take half your positions out at some point during the move up. So that when price hits you at BE, you still have some profits booked.

I am a mathematician by profession, and I would be the first to say that this is not an OPTIMUM solution to MAXIMIZING profits. However, I think most of us know that trading is MOSTLY not about maximizing profit per se, it's about minimizing risk. Well, I think scaling out is a compromise between these two objectives.

I would say take your time and look back at your journal and see what your results thus far would look like had you scaled out. I would say that if you are a breakeven trader, scaling out would add a little bit to your bottom line. Don't get me wrong, moving to breakeven is by far the most important (minimizing risk) and but sometimes you need to hold on to some of those pips by taking some profits.

I am sure everyone has gone through this situation before where after you get taken out at B/E you look at your trade and say "damn, I should have just taken my profits when I was up 200 pips." Well, profit is not profit until you actually realize those pips. As long as your trade is still out there, it's free game, the market can take you out anytime.

Hope some of this helps.

Kulu
  • #6,243
  • Dec 14, 2009 2:18pm Dec 14, 2009 2:18pm
I completely agree with Chris. However I'd also like to add from my own personal experience that sometimes when you enter markets on pull backs you have a better chance of riding it along if the trade is meant to be a home run. Since price is always re-visiting broken/past S/R levels and remembering that price is a function of market psychology there is a tendency for you to get shaken out of a lot of moves. But the truth is that it happens to all traders so I think you should keep doing what you're doing and not change pattern because of this fact. Your home run will always come but there's no harm in taking some off at some point (paying yourself for the trade).

For me, I can't say I haven't had this issue so here's what I usually do.. I usually place my trades in bits (and of course not more than 3%). After the set-up say a good PA at a nice S/R area, I put 1% into the market after the first pull back (sometimes a limit order, sometimes at market order). I then place the second 1% or 2% (depending on the scenario) as a sell or buy stop which takes me in at the break of the candle. Once in profit I now have the luxury of moving the SL's to their various B/E's. This way, I have noticed even if the last lot (trade taken at normal break of PA) goes in my favor and turns against me stopping me @ BE, in most cases I would still have the other 1% in.

But here's the bad part of using this technique: Using a pin bar as an instance, as most people like to get in ONLY at the break of the pin bar (which is ideally how it should be played), you might get faked out.

I really like smaller stops so if I get in after a pull back I get a better R:R on the first 1%. However if I don't get a pull back I just let the market take me in on the break of the PA set up being aware of the necessary conditions and making up my mind about if I want to have a fixed TP or move SL to BE and watch. If I take this last option then I would not worry even if I get stopped out @ BE because I decided to take the risk that way. Remember, you can't expect to be in every home run unless you are a really agressive trader. So do not feel discouraged. A BE is not bad afterall, your home runs will always come..

Cheers
  • #6,244
  • Dec 14, 2009 2:42pm Dec 14, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting Danku
i wanted to find out what the views of everyone here especially the experienced members, Chris, Low, WGM etc etc, you know yourselves.

Ever since i started on the 4-hr and then the Daily my trading has improved quite abit and am now past breakeven....i have been doing some analysis over the past month or so and tested my analysis on demo and it seems to work quite well and i thought i get views here.

Today is a very good example of what i want to describe below.......i have noted when i get a Daily setup off S/R and target 106pips.....8 out of...
I've had this happen to me numerous times when I'm not around to watch the trade. Chances are that my original assumptions are still valid and I just need to be patient and wait for the next opportunity.

Break even is a winning trade in my book, just not as much fun as a profitable one.
  • #6,245
  • Dec 14, 2009 2:56pm Dec 14, 2009 2:56pm
Quoting wh1zz0
I completely agree with Chris. However I'd also like to add from my own personal experience that sometimes when you enter markets on pull backs you have a better chance of riding it along if the trade is meant to be a home run. Since price is always re-visiting broken/past S/R levels and remembering that price is a function of market psychology there is a tendency for you to get shaken out of a lot of moves. But the truth is that it happens to all traders so I think you should keep doing what you're doing and not change pattern because of this fact....
I try to get in at roughly the halfway point of the pinbar. If it misses me......I can try somewhere else or just look for something else. It doesn't work all the time but I can run a smaller sl. Not that I'm over leveraged, I'm just cheap that way. lol
  • #6,246
  • Dec 14, 2009 2:58pm Dec 14, 2009 2:58pm
Quoting clockwork71
Also, I must add this time of year - it might be a little wiser to take profits at S/R, mainly because the lower volume makes for odd movement.

Chris
No doubt! It's been like ping pong.
  • #6,247
  • Dec 14, 2009 3:17pm Dec 14, 2009 3:17pm
Exactly market do not care about 50 pip or 100 , we have strong SR like the weekly ones for example and the less strong , i would close some of my position on the weaker one and if it retrace i will reenter again , in the begining i used to be in a very profitable position and waiting for it to reach the next SR , and it reverse on me and i close it at BE . i find scaling it at minor SR , more rewarding . while keeping in mind that my target is the next SR .
for example if i have shorted gold( i wish i did ) , i would take some profit near 1100/1125( weekly trendline ) , so if it retrace i will find a way to renter again . and the remainig of my position i move to BE and keep targeting 1000.
traders has different appetite for risk . but this the way i would do ( i m not that good so dont listen to me )
regards

Quoting clockwork71
If I were to do either - it would be based on S/R, mainly because that's what I will often do with counter-trend trades anyways. Remember, the market doesn't care if you are 50 pips to the good - so picking a random number won't help. The next S/R area? Well that is certainly something the market does care about.

Chris
  • #6,248
  • Dec 14, 2009 4:08pm Dec 14, 2009 4:08pm
Another thing to consider in regards to current trades, is that a some subconscious level, some of us "calling a top/bottom" because of the dollar bounce.

Short eurusd>>>very countertrend
same thing long usdjpy, and short gold.

Ordinarily, for CT trades, you would just set a target (TP) and call it good. But because there some suspicion these trades may really be "turning points" no one wants to get out too early.

I'm not sure how it will all turn out, but on the eurcad for example, going long is very countertrend , so I've set a TP (though it certainly doesn't look like it's going to play nice).
  • #6,249
  • Dec 14, 2009 5:07pm Dec 14, 2009 5:07pm
A lot of great traders around in here , good work guys

Gusy what is your call about USD JPY ????

actually what do you think about the JPY in the coming period .

have a great week all
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  • #6,250
  • Dec 14, 2009 6:17pm Dec 14, 2009 6:17pm
Quoting samer960
Exactly market do not care about 50 pip or 100 , we have strong SR...
Good points......
  • #6,251
  • Dec 14, 2009 6:19pm Dec 14, 2009 6:19pm
Quoting Low
Another thing to consider in regards to current trades, is that a some subconscious level, some of us "calling a top/bottom" because of the dollar bounce.

Short eurusd>>>very countertrend
same thing long usdjpy, and short gold.

Ordinarily, for CT trades, you would just set a target (TP) and call it good. But because there some suspicion these trades may really be "turning points" no one wants to get out too early.

I'm not sure how it will all turn out, but on the eurcad for example, going long is very countertrend , so I've set a TP (though...

One thing I might say about this is this:

If you are setting T/P and it turns out to be the trend changing - there will be other opportunities. So if USD/JPY is at it's bottom, then there are going to be a ton of chances to go long.....
  • #6,252
  • Dec 14, 2009 6:21pm Dec 14, 2009 6:21pm
Quoting vic_elc
A lot of great traders around in here , good work guys

Gusy what is your call about USD JPY ????

actually what do you think about the JPY in the coming period .

have a great week all
Personally, I feel we are trying to find a bottom. But to be honest - my post above is probably the safest option. Take little bites out of the market until it's obviously going up.

I could be wrong, but that's what stop losses are for.
  • #6,253
  • Dec 14, 2009 6:26pm Dec 14, 2009 6:26pm
You ever considered using a split lot strategy? Take X lots, close 2/3rds of at some point, move the rest to BE and let it ride. Just seems a good way to capture trends that may or may not happen.
  • #6,254
  • Dec 14, 2009 7:18pm Dec 14, 2009 7:18pm
You know, I would not really be surprised if GBP blows up (but still concerned about the low volume).. market may try to price in the anticipated 1.8 CPI plus checking out how that GU chart looks, price just sitting on top of the daily trend line having bounced off the 61 fib level. I'm long 1% on this one (just a little swing play though). Also watching my main trade (gold short) VERY closely.

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  • #6,255
  • Edited 8:56pm Dec 14, 2009 8:05pm | Edited 8:56pm
Quoting clockwork71
Personally, I feel we are trying to find a bottom. But to be honest - my post above is probably the safest option. Take little bites out of the market until it's obviously going up.

I could be wrong, but that's what stop losses are for.
thanks for the reply
good, we have the same feeling , i also feel that the 84.xx area is the low for this year , USD might gain some strength in the upcoming period specially within the first quarter of next year , just a crazy feeling i know i should never trust it .
my indicator still bearish as long as the price is below the cloud, i agree with you that the safest thing to do is looking for shorts and SL is to save us .
good luck and have a great week
  • #6,256
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:39pm Dec 14, 2009 8:39pm
Quoting Rabid
You ever considered using a split lot strategy? Take X lots, close 2/3rds of at some point, move the rest to BE and let it ride. Just seems a good way to capture trends that may or may not happen.
Somewhere in FF, there is a thread that was started by PeterFM, that looks at that specific question. He found that it was less profitable in the long run. In fact, let me ask this question:

"If you are taking partial profits, how often are you taking partial losses?" That's always been my thinking anyways. However, there are a few great traders in my own group that do it - so I can't really knock it.
  • #6,257
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:40pm Dec 14, 2009 8:40pm
Quoting Low
Another thing to consider in regards to current trades, is that a some subconscious level, some of us "calling a top/bottom" because of the dollar bounce.

Short eurusd>>>very countertrend
same thing long usdjpy, and short gold.

Ordinarily, for CT trades, you would just set a target (TP) and call it good. But because there some suspicion these trades may really be "turning points" no one wants to get out too early.

I'm not sure how it will all turn out, but on the eurcad for example, going long is very countertrend , so I've set a TP (though...
"Only users lose drugs?" LOL

Reminds me of my hillbilly Grandfather who once said - "You ain't drunk until you have to grab the grass to keep from falling off the face of the earth!"

  • #6,258
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:42pm Dec 14, 2009 8:42pm
Quoting wh1zz0
I completely agree with Chris. However I'd also like to add from my own personal experience that sometimes when you enter markets on pull backs you have a better chance of riding it along if the trade is meant to be a home run. Since price is always re-visiting broken/past S/R levels and remembering that price is a function of market psychology there is a tendency for you to get shaken out of a lot of moves. But the truth is that it happens to all traders so I think you should keep doing what you're doing and not change pattern because of this fact....
One thing this made me think of: When there is a clear trend, (long term) why are you worried about taking profits? You should be worried about adding to your position.
  • #6,259
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:44pm Dec 14, 2009 8:44pm
Quoting wh1zz0
You know, I would not really be surprised if GBP blows up (but still concerned about the low volume).. market may try to price in the anticipated 1.8 CPI plus checking out how that GU chart looks, price just sitting on top of the daily trend line having bounced off the 61 fib level. I'm long 1% on this one (just a little swing play though). Also watching my main trade (gold short) VERY closely.

Attachment
The British Pound - That currency that wouldn't hurry up and die. LOL
  • #6,260
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:32pm Dec 14, 2009 9:32pm
Here are the last 21 trading days (on an intra-day bass) of the S&P 500. We've gone...nowhere! But it looks like we're approaching the upper end of the range. Is it breakout time or is this just another "sell the rip" opportunity? Time shall tell...

Here is a look at the last 21-days (sorry the scale is so hard to read):

http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q.../SPX-21day.png

1121 is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from 1576 (the S&P's top on 10/12/2007) to 666 (March Lows). Is it any wonder that last week's move topped out at just below 1120? Anyway, we're getting to an interesting place on the chart. To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if we grind all the way up to 1200... But i suppose lets see what inflation is (PPI tomorrow, CPI on Wednesday) and lets see what the Fed Says on Wednesday...Oh...and we also have to get through 1120!

Just some food for thought...
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