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GbpUsd 5 min breakout

  • #141
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:46am Dec 14, 2009 9:46am
Quoting Cain
No trade for me today, the box is too big... Tomorrow will be another day, a profitable one I hope.
Yip, patient is the name of this game.

  • #142
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:51pm Dec 14, 2009 12:51pm
Quoting Cain
No trade for me today, the box is too big... Tomorrow will be another day, a profitable one I hope.

Good call Cain, too much groung to cover.
  • #143
  • Dec 14, 2009 2:44pm Dec 14, 2009 2:44pm
good call but to late just woke up and banked 21 pips was always a little worried as market was looking sqemish ans with no real direction will know for next time to be aware of large boxes

Quoting Bankshot
Good call Cain, too much groung to cover.
  • #144
  • Dec 14, 2009 2:56pm Dec 14, 2009 2:56pm
I’ve noticed that after the price breaks in one direction, it will often retrace a little bit … next, one of two things happens … either it will resume the original direction, or it will continue the pullback and eventually breakout opposite of the original direction … it’s this second situation that causes a “fake out” resulting in a loss … I’m wondering, would it be prudent to ignore the first breakout and wait for the second, as “confirmation” … you would lose the advantage of “set it and forget it”, but for someone who can put in a little more screen time, it might be worth it … thoughts, anyone?
  • #145
  • Dec 14, 2009 3:15pm Dec 14, 2009 3:15pm
There has been a little said about box size but I believe that a box of 50 pips or less has been mentioned as more reliable. Cain may have better guidance.
  • #146
  • Dec 14, 2009 5:22pm Dec 14, 2009 5:22pm
Quoting Bankshot
There has been a little said about box size but I believe that a box of 50 pips or less has been mentioned as more reliable. Cain may have better guidance.

When the box is too big I do not enter the trade, I actually don't have a right
value... when it's too big is too big. And why is that? Because the objective of this method is to take advantage of the move that the opening of the market has on
this pair. If a big move had already occur minutes before, the breakout is likely not to occur.


Watch for another possible triangle tomorrow guys.

Here's my chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 14 dec.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #147
  • Dec 14, 2009 6:20pm Dec 14, 2009 6:20pm
Quoting Bankshot
There has been a little said about box size but I believe that a box of 50 pips or less has been mentioned ...
I'm looking at the Average Daily Range for guidance ... for example, if the ADR is 170, a "good" box should be 30% of that or less (51 pips) ... (or maybe 35%, or 40% ... I haven't worked out the best percentage yet) ... the logic being, if it's only moved 51 pips so far, there's room for another 119 pip move ... and, obviously, if the box is too big, there's not much room for further movement ...
  • #148
  • Dec 15, 2009 6:33am Dec 15, 2009 6:33am
A very nice trade today with 52,9 - spread pips profit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #149
  • Dec 15, 2009 6:58am Dec 15, 2009 6:58am
Darn 1 minute spike triggered the buy and lost 40 pips. (I adjusted my SL) Back in time to adjust the lot size on the sell and 52.1 pips x 2 to the good.

Thanks again Cain!
  • #150
  • Dec 15, 2009 9:07am Dec 15, 2009 9:07am
My long entry was at 16318 and the price high was 16318, some people may have been lucky and not have been pipped in.
  • #151
  • Dec 15, 2009 9:08am Dec 15, 2009 9:08am
Really nice and simple system ! i started using this today and banked nice 53 pips

and yes, im with FXOpen and got filled on 1.6317 (long) today and the price went down all the way.
Sl 50 pips, doubled the lot size of the short pos. and this was a winner

anyone thought of using us open with this system too ?

and how do you manage lot size if your not watching the screen all the time ?
we need to get a EA outta this one!

rgds 4 this nice system !
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #152
  • Dec 15, 2009 9:11am Dec 15, 2009 9:11am
Hi Cain,

How will you treat the holidays with respect to your strategy? It seems many institutional traders go on vacation after the end of this week, and the volume and volatility drop off until after the first of the new year. I have already reduced my lot size this week in anticipation of the slowdown. Regardless, I will be placing at least a minimal amount on live trades for tracking purposes.

Good trading!
BC
  • #153
  • Dec 15, 2009 9:28am Dec 15, 2009 9:28am
Whoops, I forgot to add that my SL is based on 90% (not 100%) of the box (including buffer). The reason I use 90% is that on Oanda I can place both pending orders on the same chart account. This way if the 1st trade loses, it doesn't trigger the opposite order until a few pips later. Otherwise, if the 2nd pending trade is triggered at the same time the 1st trade hits its SL, both trades are closed by the broker. Also, if this strategy's win/lose ratio ends up at 50%, I still make a small profit. And, 90% still places the SL a few pips outside the candle hi/lo range.
  • #154
  • Dec 15, 2009 9:48am Dec 15, 2009 9:48am
Hi Bob,

Here's my chart - note I just add 10 pips either side of the HL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #155
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:26am Dec 15, 2009 11:26am
Quoting scorpion
Hi Bob,

Here's my chart - note I just add 10 pips either side of the HL
Hi Scorpion,

There's your problem...you didn't allow for the broker spread on the long pending order. Here's Cain's quote from post #9. "The orders are placed 10 pips plus the spread on longs, and just 10 pips on shorts." Had you followed this rule your long pending order would not have been filled and no loss would have been incurred.

Did you double your lot size for the short trade? If so, you would still have made your profit for the day.

Sorry...but if you aren't trading with all the rules in place, you are pursuing a different strategy and your results won't be the same as Cain's.

Good trading, Scorpion!
BC
  • #156
  • Dec 15, 2009 12:47pm Dec 15, 2009 12:47pm
I'm not a good mql4 programmer so I'm only trying to test some trading strategies, especially box breakout.
I'd like to discuss with you the best way to implement Cain's strategy, so we will be able to backtest it carefully. Moreover, as a lot of you, I have a work and not so time to stay in front of a pc

This is my way to define the box over the 8.00 and the 8.10 candles:
PHP Code
extern string  periodBegin    = "08:00"; 
extern string  periodEnd      = "08:10";
extern int     Offset         = 100;
extern double  Lots           = 0.05;
extern int     Slippage       = 3;
and in the start() function:

PHP Code
datetime TradeDate = TimeCurrent();
datetime TimeBegin, TimeEnd;
double PriceHigh, PriceLow;
int iBarBegin, iBarEnd;

TimeBegin = StrToTime(TimeToStr(TradeDate, TIME_DATE) + " " + periodBegin);
TimeEnd = StrToTime(TimeToStr(TradeDate, TIME_DATE) + " " + periodEnd);

iBarBegin = iBarShift(Symbol(), PERIOD_M5, TimeBegin, true);
iBarEnd = iBarShift(Symbol(), PERIOD_M5, TimeEnd, true);
   
PriceHigh = High[Highest(NULL, 0, MODE_HIGH, iBarBegin - iBarEnd, iBarEnd)];
PriceLow = Low [Lowest (NULL, 0, MODE_LOW , iBarBegin - iBarEnd, iBarEnd)];
then i make the two pending orders in this way:

PHP Code
int buyTicket = OrderSend(Symbol(),OP_BUYSTOP,Lots,PriceHigh + Offset*Point,Slippage,PriceLow + Offset*Point,PriceHigh + Offset*Point + (PriceHigh - PriceLow),"_BUY_",0,0,CLR_NONE);
if(buyTicket>0)
  if(OrderSelect(buyTicket,SELECT_BY_TICKET,MODE_TRADES)) 
     OrderPrint();
  else 
     Print("Cannot send order because of : ",GetLastError());

int sellTicket = OrderSend(Symbol(),OP_SELLSTOP,Lots,PriceLow - Offset*Point,Slippage,PriceHigh - Offset*Point,PriceLow  - Offset*Point - (PriceHigh - PriceLow),"_SELL_",0,0,CLR_NONE);
if(sellTicket>0)
   if(OrderSelect(sellTicket,SELECT_BY_TICKET,MODE_TRADES)) 
      OrderPrint();
   else 
      Print("Cannot send order because of : ",GetLastError());
Now the problem!!
"If the take profit of the first orders is not reached I duplicate the lot size in order to cover my previous loss and still make profit..."

I'm not able to implement this part of the strategy. How to find if an order was closed by a stoploss or a takeprofit? not always OrderClosePrice()==OrderStopLoss() is the right condition! In which way have I to examine the orders history?? and then which is the right way to double lot size?
I need same sample code to understand!

I hope someone will give us some ideas to implement the EA! thanks
  • #157
  • Dec 15, 2009 1:05pm Dec 15, 2009 1:05pm
Quoting dalbianc
I'm not a good mql4 programmer so I'm only trying to test some trading strategies, especially box breakout.
I'd like to discuss with you the best way to implement Cain's strategy, so we will be able to backtest it carefully. Moreover, as a lot of you, I have a work and not so time to stay in front of a pc...
perhaps you could look @ the trades of this day, if the last trade was a loss, double the lot size with a setable number ?


im not a mq4l coder at all, haven't tried it yet, but i hope you could do something with this.
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #158
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:37pm Dec 15, 2009 2:37pm
same happened to me doulbled up and bagged the pips

Quoting slade1986
Darn 1 minute spike triggered the buy and lost 40 pips. (I adjusted my SL) Back in time to adjust the lot size on the sell and 52.1 pips x 2 to the good.

Thanks again Cain!
  • #159
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:48pm Dec 15, 2009 2:48pm
I have done some manual testing on MT4 for the period from 31st Aug until today. I'm not sure how accurate the MT4 data is but I found it quite interesting nonetheless... I included trading days with a range above 75 pips as zero as I think the target is too far..anyway in a total of 77 trading days using Cains rules I found that there would have been 2004 pips profit..thats an average of 26 pips a day... What I found more interesting was that while using the same rules for SL , time frames and buffer but changing R/R ratio to 3/2 the return was +2822 pips... (183 pips/wk and 37 pips p/day) Just some food for thought for you!!!!!!

Blinkers........
  • #160
  • Edited 3:27pm Dec 15, 2009 3:21pm | Edited 3:27pm
Thanks Bob,

I didn't get pipped in on the long (just about missed it), so took profit on the short.

I understand Cains adding the spread to the box but don't see what the significance is of adding it to the long side but not the short side, in forex longs and shorts are in effect the same unlike in the stockmarket.

Anyway, good pips taken by everyone again thats the most important, especially on a fiddly day like today with no real direction.

ps - Adding the 3 pip spread to the buy buffer doesn't match with the 17 pip difference you said you had or was that just a mistake.
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