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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #11,581
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:28am Dec 14, 2009 8:28am
Quoting 012
ah yes a talk on brokers..
I been with OANDA demo-ing the last month or so, was with DBFX before and now just started on SAXO. OANDA's spreads are really to die for... can barely even get spreads like that in the interbank markets on the EUR/USD. OANDA seems the best of the lot for me.. but, a major concern is how they disconnect you from time to time... I am still fresh in this retail brokerage game.. can somebody with experience with OANDA enlighten me? as I am probably a whisker away from depositing some serious cash with them..

*I am referring...
Hi 012,
all is well as can be. You should be on holidays by now? Interbank's quite quiet already.

yes, the oanda prices are real slick. but like you mentioned, they drop line sometimes, esp at most critical timing. I had experienced much of these with many brokers. If on professional levels, many will get the line off for at least a few weeks. But retail has no clout, so grind teeth. A hard place and the deep blue sea. At retail broking, I guess , if situation get hairy, they off line. Even some lower tier banks does the same, on and off. Its not like these chaps are tier 1. Only that interbank have many access avenues, retail traders are locked to their brokers. So the trick is to have a few brokers, spread the business around with the hard working ones and let the scums scavenge for business in the rubbish bins.

Good to see you around.

regards
  • #11,582
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:36am Dec 14, 2009 8:36am
Quoting 012
ah yes a talk on brokers..
oanda is good , except on 1 thing...
they always give u the worst price if there is a price clash ,
say market is moving down quickly , ur oanda screen lags and the price is showing 1.5012/1.5014
while the market is already at 1.5001/1.5002 , u know the real price and u r trying to buy at 1.5002 ...
u send the market order of 1.5014 since ur screen says so , oanda gets the market order 1.5014 from ur side , compares it with the current market price, and will give u whichever is the worst price , this case u ll get 1.5014 instead of 1.5002...

all it takes is a lag from their server to mess ur positions ,
I dont know if they can induce such lag or its a natural cause from fast market or excess client orders, as long as u know the real price u can decide if u want to wait till the lag goes or play with their rule ...

other than this , Im fine with everything else...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,583
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:38am Dec 14, 2009 8:38am
ah yes.. FTI...starve them.. haha... but yes Interbank is very very quiet... there are even news of brokerage houses thinking about consolidating or closing shop.. its pretty bad.. markets are extremely thin..most players are squared up going into the new year...even IB vols are coming off...for certain exotic crosses... riskies are kinda flat.. not much action..
so that gives me more time to participate here and read up and learn more.. and demo as well.. okay well if thats a disadvantage that all retail brokers have, i would have to go with OANDA to reduce my cost then..

Well, been reading "Education of a speculator" by Victor niederhoffer, dont judge the man... before LTCM, he was spectacular.. something stood up that i thought i'd share.

" A market bottom is usually reached when the last dumb seller sells".

And FTI, I know your stance on technical analysis... but just out of curiousity what is your take on the whole TD indicators?
  • #11,584
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:47am Dec 14, 2009 8:47am
Quoting maheswara
oanda is good , except on 1 thing...
they always give u the worst price if there is a price clash ,
say market is moving down quickly , ur oanda screen lags and the price is showing 1.5012/1.5014
while the market is already at 1.5001/1.5002 , u know the real price and u r trying to buy at 1.5002 ...
u send the market order of 1.5014 since ur screen says so , oanda gets the market order 1.5014 from ur side , compares it with the current market price, and will give u whichever is the worst price , this case u ll get 1.5014 instead of 1.5002...

all...
Yeah i always get shity quotes. Even more so today lol
  • #11,585
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:51am Dec 14, 2009 8:51am
Quoting 012
ah yes.. FTI...starve them.. haha... but yes Interbank is very very quiet... there are even news of brokerage houses thinking about consolidating or closing shop.. its pretty bad.. markets are extremely thin..most players are squared up going into the new year...even IB vols are coming off...for certain exotic crosses... riskies are kinda flat.. not much action..
so that gives me more time to participate here and read up and learn more.. and demo as well.. okay well if thats a disadvantage that all retail brokers have, i would have to go with OANDA...
hi,
ya the bad thingy about oanda , is that I don't like them taxing customer withdrawals. and incrementally. They suppose to be on the ball and make the dough from business, not taxes.

012, as I had testified, reliance on indicators builds for rigidity and sloppyness in mindset. Their performance depends much on the perimeter sets of their holy grails. And there is alway a trade-off from between too close and too far. From my experience, had not seen any dealers on indicators being consistent in their performance. Whereas, the bread and mortars boys nimbleness, and dynamics overshadows those on indicator leads."Feel" and vigilance builds for better in my opinion. To make money from the dynamic market, skill and vigilance is a prerequisite. Even rigidity in money management is a no no with me. All of Technical Analysis to me is only a small part of my decision process.


regards
  • #11,586
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:53am Dec 14, 2009 8:53am
1 question.. how do you know what the real price of the market is? from another broker or?

FX is shady business...there is no integrity in retail FX i would assume so.. no "word is my bond". So i am actually okay with the slippage so to speak.. but i do seek clarification for the question above.
  • #11,587
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:02am Dec 14, 2009 9:02am
thank you for providing clarity on that FTI and yes I have been hunting around.. for the lowest taxes... and believe it or not, OANDA is pretty decent... DBFX is insane... so are the rest..unless you go with CMC markets.. or maybe a local bank like DBS Vickers?
I dont know, so far I have only surveyed and interviewed a couple of brokers.. so my knowledge is quite shallow.

But, these costs do bother me, as in time.. they will add up.. and decrease my chances of staying profitable.
  • #11,588
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:04am Dec 14, 2009 9:04am
Quoting 012
1 question.. how do you know what the real price of the market is? from another broker or?

FX is shady business...there is no integrity in retail FX i would assume so.. no "word is my bond". So i am actually okay with the slippage so to speak.. but i do seek clarification for the question above.
2 other brokers for me , mt4 doesnt lag unless the broker wants them to ...
also oanda has that connection bar at the bottom, if its not green , good chance u r lookin at lagged price...

done for the day ,
good trading to all
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,589
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:05am Dec 14, 2009 9:05am
Quoting 012
1 question.. how do you know what the real price of the market is? from another broker or?

FX is shady business...there is no integrity in retail FX i would assume so.. no "word is my bond". So i am actually okay with the slippage so to speak.. but i do seek clarification for the question above.
, you know 012, even amongst interbank brokers they don't share the dealer "bond" motto. so don't expect it from the small ticket brokers la. Generally there is slight slippage, broker to broker. In essence for small tickets , it probably drops into some junior dealers nostrols. so prices within the scope of reuters"asap" indication is respectable, i guess. if you watch a few broker prices, after some time, you can roughly gauge which brokers are on and which are off. Unless we have some professionals arbitraging the small ticket prices, improvement is not expected anytime soon.

Like for oanda, they carry a 0.9 pip ball and chain mostly. so by default they should be quite on the ball mostly. But do expect some book bias, from time to time.



regards
  • #11,590
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:07am Dec 14, 2009 9:07am
For those who love to worry about the future:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aRMkt.e8ujIo

http://www.elliottwave.com/features/...articleid=4938

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...y-serious.html

Enjoy.

Rgs,

Textor
  • #11,591
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:23am Dec 14, 2009 9:23am
Quoting textor
For those who love to worry about the future:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aRMkt.e8ujIo

http://www.elliottwave.com/features/...articleid=4938

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...y-serious.html

Enjoy.

Rgs,

Textor
Hi Tex,
Yep, this is what I was referring to in my weekend post. These countries are either going to be bailed out (which will be very difficult for the EU and the ECB), or they will leave, which will be a huge problem for the euro. I wonder if Germany and France will do much to bail them out (any Germans or Frenchmen out there who are willing to pay more taxes for these countries?), and I am not sure why the ECB would add PIGS debt to the ECB balance sheet, so this is something worth watching over the next few months. Interesting stuff going on all over the world.

BTW, I am using FXCM/UK, and would not recommend any broker that I have ever used.
  • #11,592
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:25am Dec 14, 2009 9:25am
haha yes sir AMEN to that.. its just the lesser of the evils in this game...
OANDA with caution it is then.
Guys, i gotta hit the sack.. another day for me tomorrow..! till tomorrow evening..

stay nimble guys!
  • #11,593
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:58am Dec 14, 2009 9:58am
Quoting GEfx
Hi Tex,
Yep, this is what I was referring to in my weekend post. These countries are either going to be bailed out (which will be very difficult for the EU and the ECB), or they will leave, which will be a huge problem for the euro. I wonder if Germany and France will do much to bail them out (any Germans or Frenchmen out there who are willing to pay more taxes for these countries?), and I am not sure why the ECB would add PIGS debt to the ECB balance sheet, so this is something worth watching over the next few months. Interesting stuff going on...
Hi GEfx,

The subject is interesting and the consequences much more, but remember
that the future is unknowable.

Don't build your own trap.

Rgs,

Textor
  • #11,594
  • Dec 14, 2009 4:37pm Dec 14, 2009 4:37pm
Nice conversation you all have.
I am out for the rest of the year.
I will return to the dancing floor shortly after the first of the year.
So now I just watch and enjoy other dancing.
Good luck to all.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #11,595
  • Dec 15, 2009 1:16am Dec 15, 2009 1:16am
Quoting maheswara
oanda is good , except on 1 thing...
they always give u the worst price if there is a price clash ,
say market is moving down quickly , ur oanda screen lags and the price is showing 1.5012/1.5014
while the market is already at 1.5001/1.5002 , u know the real price and u r trying to buy at 1.5002 ...
u send the market order of 1.5014 since ur screen says so , oanda gets the market order 1.5014 from ur side , compares it with the current market price, and will give u whichever is the worst price , this case u ll get 1.5014 instead of 1.5002...

all...
Hi mashes,
When Oanda price has big difference from others--
Never click at the moment when Oanda price not moving, this moment can really deliver a package of ticks to beat you upon your clicking;
But, it's relatively safe to click when Oanda price keeps running, or you see the green/red light is flashing.
  • #11,596
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:38am Dec 15, 2009 3:38am
Quoting imjscn
Hi mashes,
.
yup,
or if u feel price isnt right , use limit order to get price u want...

good trade to all
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,597
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:34am Dec 15, 2009 5:34am
Never got used to Oanda platform and feeling comfortable with the platform I use is very important for me. I am with FXCM/UK now too - not bad, especially if you stay out of the news. I tried Alpari UK some time ago and it's not bad either. Being a price action trader however I prefer platforms with good order management which happens to be MT4's Achilles' heel.

Excellent day for trading the Yen btw. Best of luck and lots of pips to everyone.
  • #11,598
  • Dec 15, 2009 8:42am Dec 15, 2009 8:42am
Interesting read from the unhappy liberal left

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics..._sellout/print
  • #11,599
  • Edited 10:22am Dec 15, 2009 10:00am | Edited 10:22am
Cable's is a 5 day 150 pip side ways range, sitting on a powder keg.
  • #11,600
  • Dec 15, 2009 10:26am Dec 15, 2009 10:26am
Quoting auxesis
Cable's is a 5 day 150 pip side ways range, sitting on a powder keg.
cannon seems pointed south, aux.

regards
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