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The Reason why 95% Traders fail

  • #21
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:41pm Dec 13, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting calderone
It's hard for a new trader to know the difference between crapola and a solid method.
True, I think it's actually a function of an open mind and logic how quickly one progresses beyond this stage. Beyond the focus on rubbish you have the problem of people becoming irrationally attached to erroneous ideas, people would rather defend rubbish to the bitter end than admit defeat, the whole 'nedging' thing illustrated this beautifully. Another thing which happens commonly is 'groupthink' (J16, Jacko etc).
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #22
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:43pm Dec 13, 2009 12:43pm
Quoting Craig
True, I think it's actually a function of an open mind and logic how quickly one progresses beyond this stage. Beyond the focus on rubbish you have the problem of people becoming irrationally attached to erroneous ideas, people would rather defend rubbish to the bitter end than admit defeat, the whole 'nedging' thing illustrated this beautifully. Another thing which happens commonly is 'groupthink' (J16, Jacko etc).
Good point re: groupthink
  • #23
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:00pm Dec 13, 2009 1:00pm
Quoting swingtrader
No dear i dont agree with you...forum does helps people,but one needs commonsense to understand which advice he shud take and which he shud ignore

Sadly most people lack any kind of sense and the things being preached and believed in sadly pretty much all of them don't work at all, you can prove it to them and despite there losing money they'll still keep going blaming luck for there losses, ARRRGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ie Candle Sticks there randomly formed nothing more or less they hold ZERO Predictive Value but pretty much everyone wait on there next H4 candle to show them the way!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #24
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:19pm Dec 13, 2009 1:19pm
Quoting Turveyd
Sadly most people lack any kind of sense and the things being preached and believed in sadly pretty much all of them don't work at all, you can prove it to them and despite there losing money they'll still keep going blaming luck for there losses, ARRRGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ie Candle Sticks there randomly formed nothing more or less they hold ZERO Predictive Value but pretty much everyone wait on there next H4 candle to show them the way!!

Everyone must believe in something! Don't tase me bro! lol
  • #25
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:35pm Dec 13, 2009 1:35pm
Quoting LaTeCoMeR
Holly molly_indycator
ROFL Thats the " Never Losing System " i saw on fap turbo.com
  • #26
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:53pm Dec 13, 2009 1:53pm
I think people get wrapped up in these systems of where when this line crosses this and this candle does that and forget that these are not the things that move the market. At any given moment an event can happen that makes the market take off and it has very little to do with any indicator. The indicator that works best for me when trading the euro/usd is the Dollar index chart, plus a dow futures chart helps too. When you see the dollar index rocketing up, you know it's good time to go short on the euro/usd. Waiting for some obsolete, primitive candle-system will guarantee that you miss most of the move by the time you get in. Trading what you think will happen is always inferior to "Real-time" trading...what is happening at that moment. Spending years trading Micro-lots and earning nothing chasing systems seems to be a fruitless endeavor, in my opinion. Learning to see what the market is doing at any given moment and acting without hesitaion is the way to succeed.
  • #27
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:57pm Dec 13, 2009 1:57pm
Well,

I prefer don't do to that newbie x experienced comparison...

At some time we all have been newbies at something, right?

I was once a newbie doctor. I'm not anymore.

I consider myself a Fx rookie (it's stated in my profile)

But (IMO) how can the gap be filled? Most newbies seem to start as TJPLD stated...direct to the "Trading Systems". They don't even take a sniff at the "Sticky"s topics on Broker and Rookie Sections... they are too anxious or too lazy to do it. The small part that, in some moment, find AND explore those sections, see the Trading System section in a different way (at least I hope)...

No newbie would ever go to the Trading Systems threads without studying the basics of Fx market, brokerage, orders, leverage... If you don't understand from where the spread comes, you are not ready to even demo some trading system... but we been there, done that.... time will tell who is doing the homework...

Cheers!
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #28
  • Dec 13, 2009 2:03pm Dec 13, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting Tjpld
... they attach to much importance to "Trading Systems".
And as the markets start to open you will see the "interactive trading" forum numbers climb. It will fill with people who are waiting for someone to tell them whether they should be long or short. It's the reason you will see 300-400 people viewing and only about 10-15 posting. The rest are using it as a signal service.
  • #29
  • Dec 13, 2009 2:04pm Dec 13, 2009 2:04pm
Quoting calderone
Everyone must believe in something! Don't tase me bro! lol
aahhh that made my day haha

btw, out of those 95%, how many are really traders? Not many. That statistic is BS in my opinion.

Out of hundred, only 5 make it. What constitutes having made it? I know guys in the business who have a mental breakdown and lost everything after 15 years. I know guys who have made a ton in two years, but who's to say that'll hold out? I know guys going strong after 20+ years.

And after that fact, how many of those so called traders burn out after a few years totally. With that in there, I'd like to know that statistic after 5 years trading. Anything less, IMO, isn't enough.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #30
  • Dec 13, 2009 2:11pm Dec 13, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting Tjpld
Exits. That's where your P/L is made. Which defines your Sucess Rate, Profit Factor, Avg. Profit/Loss and in the end your overall profitability.

To get the best Exits psychology is a huge thing too. How good is system that gives the potential to earn 100 Pips each trade with 30 Pips Risk when you exit after 20-30 because you're afraid you might end up with nothing? This way you're going to make you life very hard and you will probably end up losing.

RR doesn't mean anything there no way you can controll it. You can only set your risk the reward...
Everybody gets the signal (for the most part). It's how you work it that makes you cash or breaks you.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #31
  • Dec 13, 2009 2:23pm Dec 13, 2009 2:23pm
In my opinion a great factor in Forex profitability is a system which does not utilise a standard stop loss which puts you out after it is hit.
If a stop loss hit then triggers a justified trade opening in the same direction once the SL is hit then I believe you are already ahead of many that are going to take the loss and be sidelined.
  • #32
  • Dec 13, 2009 2:41pm Dec 13, 2009 2:41pm
...not sure how accurate these stats are but it probably has something to do with it.

 

  1. 42 percent of college graduates never read another book after college.
  2. 80 percent of U.S. families did not buy or read a book last year.
  3. 70 percent of U.S. adults have not been in a bookstore in the last five years.
  4. 57 percent of new books are not read to completion.
  5. 50 percent of American adults are unable to read an eighth grade level book.

http://drpezz.wordpress.com/2009/04/...ng-statistics/

  • #33
  • Dec 13, 2009 3:25pm Dec 13, 2009 3:25pm
Quoting Kas1
...not sure how accurate these stats are but it probably has something to do with it.
[list][*]42 percent of college graduates never read another book after college. [*]80 percent of U.S. families did not buy or read a book last year. [*]70 percent of U.S. adults have not been in a bookstore in the last five years. [*]57 percent of new books are not read to completion. [*]50...
Even if these stats are over-estimated by, let's say... 20%.... it still makes me deathly scared.... I wander how it is down here in Brazil....
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #34
  • Dec 13, 2009 4:06pm Dec 13, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting mike w
aahhh that made my day haha

btw, out of those 95%, how many are really traders? Not many. That statistic is BS in my opinion.

Out of hundred, only 5 make it. What constitutes having made it? I know guys in the business who have a mental breakdown and lost everything after 15 years. I know guys who have made a ton in two years, but who's to say that'll hold out? I know guys going strong after 20+ years.

And after that fact, how many of those so called traders burn out after a few years totally. With that in there, I'd like to know that statistic...
Well, I have no doubt about traders having breakdowns etc., it's the ones that make it on the long haul that I aspire to.
  • #35
  • Edited 4:29pm Dec 13, 2009 4:08pm | Edited 4:29pm
For what it's worth..been trading for less than a year, under the direction of someone who invested in a few training courses and is well studied in trading. My older brother. I have never really considered anything past hands on expierience, seeing the market changing all the time I can't imagine a system thats able to make this transition. Been sitting in front of the monitors watchin candles and learnin about news as it swings and killes a small account. started trading with $500.00 Built n lost the account for total losses of say 3,000 or so. I don't believe in playing with monoply money because I know how cash effects judgement so I figure ya gotta learn with what ya plan on playin with! Now I started trading bigger....I took a 9,000 acct down to 2500 over 7 mos....took, relaxed, scaled down, used patience n brought it back to over 10,000 in lil more than 3 weeks. I believe in the chart time & expierience theory. There are alot of things to consider and no way you can trade Forex without sittin in front of the candles n seeing the market do it's thing. Im still a couple thousand from home, but with any luck...I'm gettin closer to my goals every day! Not sure if this helps but if you trade an amount ya can take profits with...say lot or two...it's alot easier to take profits before the table pulls them from under ya. This has been the key for me..trade bigger n take fewer pips...20 pips for $200 is allot easier to take than 20 pips for $40. I allways ended up givin the $40 back ...been keepin the $200's. LoL Just my expierience n like My Mentor whos still lil shy, cant let fear keep ya outa trades- when things go well take credit when they go bad..scale down n re-organize, but take responsibility and learn from your mistakes. follow your own trading intuition. I learn somthing every day I trade- this is not an easy way to get rich...but I am convinced it is a way! If you apply the time and learn all you can from the pro's. Just use what works and discard what doesn't- if things go right I'll be makin money within my first year of trading...if not I'll be scaling down and learnin more...trust me I'll get it if it's the last thing I ever do! If nothing else I have unshakeable motivation and time! nweeks will tell the story.....I've got the blinker on..not sure if I've turned the corner yet!
  • #36
  • Dec 13, 2009 5:07pm Dec 13, 2009 5:07pm
Quoting FX Compass
In my opinion a great factor in Forex profitability is a system which does not utilise a standard stop loss which puts you out after it is hit.
If a stop loss hit then triggers a justified trade opening in the same direction once the SL is hit then I believe you are already ahead of many that are going to take the loss and be sidelined.
Absolutely. I'm surprised to see anyone around FF say it.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #37
  • Dec 13, 2009 5:23pm Dec 13, 2009 5:23pm
Quoting magnumfreak
And as the markets start to open you will see the "interactive trading" forum numbers climb. It will fill with people who are waiting for someone to tell them whether they should be long or short. It's the reason you will see 300-400 people viewing and only about 10-15 posting. The rest are using it as a signal service.
Haha excellent observation! For how long have you been studying FF Crowd Behavior? lol

http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/2016/crowd.png

Now they are joing the Interactive Trading Threads to confuse each other with new learned systems.

Twee should make some colorfull charts out of these numbers.
  • #38
  • Dec 13, 2009 5:33pm Dec 13, 2009 5:33pm
Quoting FX Compass
In my opinion a great factor in Forex profitability is a system which does not utilise a standard stop loss which puts you out after it is hit.
If a stop loss hit then triggers a justified trade opening in the same direction once the SL is hit then I believe you are already ahead of many that are going to take the loss and be sidelined.

Correct, the SL is taking a gamble on IF this price hits then the direction should continue against you so logically taking the opposite position at that time would be logical.

Ofcourse sometimes in a SL hit and reverse situation it's BAD, but thats the traders fault for bad SL placement and method.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #39
  • Dec 13, 2009 5:48pm Dec 13, 2009 5:48pm
Whats scary is the Eur/Usd thread in the Interative section. That entire thread is frightning, even for an experienced trader. You got rookies calling out (with conviction) trading levels and trading advice to other noobies. In addition, traders that has lost 50% of equity in less than 24 hours now asking for advice and trade signals. Wow. But when you give them advice it's blowed off as if I you're the inexperienced trader. So, you asked wh 95% if traders fail ... I believe it's because they don't listen and think they have a grasp of the market.

Those on this thread talking about not downing the inexperienced but if I started a thread on just trading with price action, money management, and a little Risk/Reward very little will comment and all will leave in a week. If you tell then the hard truth about trading no one will listen. I tell then the fabble of quick riches in Forex, all eyes and ears on me. If I start a thread with all the indicators I can think of, I'll have over 100,000 views in a matter of hours.

Look, I'm not trying to down the noobs but why should I waste my time with them? When they are ready to listen and not waste my time, I'll have no problems teaching them what I know. I may not have all the answers but I am profitable and I will teach them all that I know. No one will win every trade but there are things to look for and steps to take so that you can increase your odds.
  • #40
  • Dec 13, 2009 5:54pm Dec 13, 2009 5:54pm
Quoting magnumfreak
And as the markets start to open you will see the "interactive trading" forum numbers climb. It will fill with people who are waiting for someone to tell them whether they should be long or short. It's the reason you will see 300-400 people viewing and only about 10-15 posting. The rest are using it as a signal service.
not necessarily a dumb strategy. Looking at what is painfully obvious and go the other way, and hopefully will catch the stops.
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