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The alternative method (50 pip candles)

  • #81
  • Dec 12, 2009 4:03am Dec 12, 2009 4:03am
Method is pretty easy on paper. But can we develop a simple EA for achieving this.

Thanks,
  • #82
  • Dec 12, 2009 8:12am Dec 12, 2009 8:12am
I've done a backtest fot this strategy, as per Zebulon rules, for the period between September 24 and December 10.

It ends up with:

239 trades (every candle)

120 wins
119 loss

max consecutive losses 6

50/50 as assumed....

but the strategy in that period ends with -1000pips... the problem is that the losses are bigger due to the stop of martingale after the third loss

The strategy has a probability of 50%, and has a risk/reward of 1:1

The very big problem are the series -50 -100 -200, not recovered because the martingale stops....they happens...and they happens more than we could think...
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #83
  • Edited Dec 13, 2009 2:49am Dec 12, 2009 8:26am | Edited Dec 13, 2009 2:49am
Quoting Chris_B
I've done a backtest fot this strategy, as per Zebulon rules, for the period between September 24 and December 10.

It ends up with:

239 trades (every candle)

120 wins
119 loss

max consecutive losses 6

50/50 as assumed....

but the strategy in that period ends with -1000pips... the problem is that the losses are bigger due to the stop of martingale after the third loss

The strategy has a probability of 50%, and has a risk/reward of 1:1

The very big problem are the series -50 -100 -200, not recovered because the martingale stops....they...
I don't think that about the results.
I have the test from august :
august = 2400 pips
september = 800 pips
october = 1900 pips
november = 950 pips
december = 850 pips
total = 6900 pips

I will do it from September 24 to December 10, and i will tell you.
  • #84
  • Dec 12, 2009 10:33am Dec 12, 2009 10:33am
Quoting zebulon
I don't think that about the results.
I have the test from august :
august = 2400 pips
september = 800 pips
october = 750 pips
november = 950 pips
december = 850 pips
total = 5750 pips

I will do it from September 24 to December 10, and i will tell you.
It must be almost impossible to get two tests to agree as you only need to be a few minuets difference between commencement times and the result will be quite different.
Realisitly no one is going to enter every trade back to back during such a prolonged period without an EA. A more meaningful test would be say daily London opening to New York close?
Koyco
  • #85
  • Dec 12, 2009 11:19am Dec 12, 2009 11:19am
Quoting zebulon

I will do it from September 24 to December 10, and i will tell you.
Yes...please do it...i've followed your rules...but maybe i've done some errors...
I've found 4 series 0f -50 -100 -200 (2 consecutives when I had 6 consecutive losses...)

The result reflects IMHO the statistichs...a strategy with 1:1 risk/reward and 50% probabilities has to end up in 0 in the long time...
Here the losses are recovered by the martingale...but not always...
So some times you win +50, sometimes you lose -50..
When the martingale works you recover and win +50, but when martingale fails you lose -350...

Teorically, if you don't stop your martingale after 3 losses...this strategy can only win, but you know what is the danger..
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #86
  • Dec 12, 2009 11:26am Dec 12, 2009 11:26am
I retest all on the period from september 24 to december 11.

I've made a mistake on october, it is 1900 pips instead of 750 pips.

My results, easy to verify, are :

September 24 to 30 = 1050 pips
october = 1900 pips
november = 950 pips
december = 850 pips

total = 4 750 pips
i explain the detail on the next posts...
  • #87
  • Dec 12, 2009 11:37am Dec 12, 2009 11:37am
Quoting zebulon
I retest all on the period from september 24 to december 11.

I've made a mistake on october, it is 1900 pips instead of 750 pips.

My results, easy to verify, are :

September 24 to 30 = 1050 pips
october = 1900 pips
november = 950 pips
december = 850 pips

total = 4 750 pips
i explain the detail on the next posts...
Probably I'm missing something...how is possible a more than 4000 pips difference between 2 tests??

If you post here your details maybe i can find where is my error..
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #88
  • Dec 12, 2009 11:49am Dec 12, 2009 11:49am
September 24 to 30

the candles :
RRRRRRR(RGRGR)RRRG(GRGRG)GRRGGGGGRRRG ()= range, green = win
+-+-+-+ -+-+- +-+- +-+-+ -+-+- +-+-+-+

-50+100-50+100-50+100-50+100+50+50+50+50-50+100-50-100+200+50+50+50+50-50-100+200+50-50+100-50+100+50-50+100+50=1050 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...yim/tongue.gif

i think it is better to understand the rules
  • #89
  • Edited Dec 13, 2009 3:14am Dec 12, 2009 12:18pm | Edited Dec 13, 2009 3:14am
october :

(RGRGR)RRGG(GRGRGR)RGGGGRR(RGR)RRR(RGRG)GGGGR(GRG)GGGGG
+-+++ +-+- +-+-+- +-+-+-+ -+- +-+ -+-+ -+-+- +-+ -+-+-


(GRG)(GRGRGRGR)RGGGGRRGGGGGRRGGGRRRRRR(RGRG)(GRGR)
+-+ -+------ -+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- +-++ +-+-

RGGGRRGGGGGRRR
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+

-50-100-200+50-50-100+200+50-50+100+50+50+50+50+50-50-100+200-50+100+50-50+100+50+50-50+100-50+100+50+50+50-50+100-50+100+50+50+50+50-50+100-50+100-50
+50+50+50-50-100-200+50-50+100-50+100+50+50-50+100-50-100+200+50-50+100-50+100+50-50-100+200-50-100+200-50+100-50+100-50-100-200+50+50+50+50+50
-50-100+200-50-100+200+50-50+100-50+100+50-50+100=1900 pips
  • #90
  • Dec 12, 2009 1:07pm Dec 12, 2009 1:07pm
Ok...I have found that i have a problem in my data feed datas for september and october...some day is missing...

Another difference is that in my backtest i did not restart the sequence at the start of every month...so if the month ended with + order...i went on with - order...and did not restarted with +...but this can't make so many difference...

The rules are clear Zebulon...I will retest starting from november, or with another data feed...
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #91
  • Dec 12, 2009 1:28pm Dec 12, 2009 1:28pm
very interesting thread you all have here. Is when you say you put a red line and green line for the 50 pips, how do you do that?
  • #92
  • Dec 12, 2009 5:30pm Dec 12, 2009 5:30pm
Quoting JarodM
very interesting thread you all have here. Is when you say you put a red line and green line for the 50 pips, how do you do that?
I draw it manually
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 09-12-11 22 08 32.jpg Size: 35 KB
  • #93
  • Dec 12, 2009 8:44pm Dec 12, 2009 8:44pm
What we really really need is an EA... Quicker backtest and maybe we can add some filters...

Cīmon coders!
  • #94
  • Dec 12, 2009 11:35pm Dec 12, 2009 11:35pm
Quoting zebulon
I draw it manually
what is the last 12 orders u put in? i would like to try myself from here. thanks alot. i want to see whether it tallies and i would take it from there =D
  • #95
  • Dec 13, 2009 3:28am Dec 13, 2009 3:28am
Quoting ja5on
what is the last 12 orders u put in? i would like to try myself from here. thanks alot. i want to see whether it tallies and i would take it from there =D
Here are the orders, the last one (+) is active.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 09-12-13 10 27 12.jpg Size: 47 KB
  • #96
  • Dec 13, 2009 4:54am Dec 13, 2009 4:54am
If you are getting more winners than losers then why not use the reverse labouchere system This is ideal for trend systems were your winners outstrip your loser
I have used in roulette and works rather well
Example of system
Every time you lose you add one lot to your trade,every time you win deduct one lot from your total lots
Example

LOSE 1 LOT TOTAL LOSS 1
LOSE 2 LOTS TOTAL LOSS 3
LOSE 3 LOTS TOTAL LOSS 6
LOSE 4 LOTS TOTAL LOSS 10
WIN 5 LOTS TOTAL LOSS 5
WIN 4 LOTS TOTAL LOSS 1
WIN 3 LOTS TOTAL WIN 2
WIN 2 LOTS TOTAL WIN 4
So if you have 4 losing trades and 4 winning trades you would win 200 pips
I haven't read the whole thread so I don't know whether you have longer losses than 4
2nd example
L L L W W L W W L L L W W W
1 2 3 4 3 2 3 2 1 2 3 4 3 2
-1 -3 -6 -2 +1 -1 +2 +4 +3 +1 -2 +2 +5 +7


7 WINS 7 LOSSES = PROFIT OF 7* 50 =350
  • #97
  • Dec 13, 2009 6:08am Dec 13, 2009 6:08am
Quoting raylin
If you are getting more winners than losers...
I think, this looks good. Can anybody do a backtest and see how it performs.....
  • #98
  • Dec 13, 2009 6:50am Dec 13, 2009 6:50am
Quoting raylin
If you are getting more winners than losers then why not use the reverse labouchere system This is ideal for trend systems were your winners outstrip your loser
I have used in roulette and works rather well
Example of system
Every time you lose you add one lot to your trade,every time you win deduct one lot from your total lots
Example

LOSE 1 LOT TOTAL LOSS 1
LOSE 2 LOTS TOTAL LOSS 3
LOSE 3 LOTS TOTAL LOSS 6
LOSE 4 LOTS TOTAL LOSS 10
WIN 5 LOTS TOTAL LOSS 5
WIN 4 LOTS TOTAL LOSS 1
WIN 3 LOTS TOTAL WIN 2
WIN 2 LOTS TOTAL WIN 4
So if you have...
An interesting concept and I tried applying it to the December positions and found you got into some very high lot placing which unless you have a very large fund could not be sustained. Assuming I got it right.
  • #99
  • Dec 13, 2009 9:15am Dec 13, 2009 9:15am
Zebulon,

here are couple of interesting progressions, maybe for some inspiration;-)

http://www.win-maxx.com/basics/basics03.html
http://www.win-maxx.com/basics/basics_pluscoup.html
http://www.win-maxx.com/basics/basics_beresford01.html
http://www.win-maxx.com/basics/basics_deance.html
http://www.win-maxx.com/basics/basics_dalem_agr.html
http://www.win-maxx.com/basics/basics_dalem_str.html
http://www.win-maxx.com/basics/basics_diff_betting.html
http://www.win-maxx.com/basics/basics31.html
http://www.win-maxx.com/basics/basics30.html
http://www.win-maxx.com/basics/basics28.html
http://www.win-maxx.com/basics/basics34.html
  • #100
  • Dec 13, 2009 9:21am Dec 13, 2009 9:21am
I found out that those months where this strategy does not work it works with higer bars, I mean 100 pips or even 200. It is higer volatility that makes diference. So it is silly to hope that it will work all the time, so it needs some adaptation.The increasing volatility can easy be found by counting our bars. More bars /more volatility/bigger bars. It make sense guys
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