Fundamentals from the Street

Everyone luvs the fundies regardless of wether they make any sense or not.

This thread however has nothing to do with the green refresh button. No way no way bada bada.

Instead its about the real fundamentals on the street for average joe, not the numbers or a poll of so called 'expert' economists.

FF has more correspondants in more countries then bloomberg, cnbc and the beeb combined.

So lets here it boys. Whats really going on where you are.

They are charging more because raw materials are costing more.

Even then its not easy passing those increases on to customers.

Higher prices havn't translated in to higher profits.

Even though we've got a weak sterling now (in comparison to 2 yrs ago), import prices for fmcgs is still competitive. UK wasn't the only country to devalue its currency.

The only upside has been stronger sales for uk ebayers listing in europe. Compare the price of uk wii fit to eurozone, and the dollar signs will start rotating in your eyeballs.

US retail sales due in under an hour.

Is it up just cuz of christmas or is the us consumer out spending again like the good ole days.

And whats the sentiment on the street of newyork, chicago, phily, etc etc. Are you upbeat or is the cold season dragging you down?

Analysts expect rates to remain on hold until the last quarter of 2010.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWEA526420091211

Chicago Unemployment - I have a friend who was notified his job ends on 12/17. Have another friend who just found a job after 3 months looking - starts Jan 4. Tells me the unemployment rate will stay the same for foreseeable future. Not statistically valid - but about as good as any other forecast.

I have a friend in Europe that works as a teacher. He mentioned to me that teachers salaries were cut by 15 %.

I remember when the volcano first errrupted having a discussion with a friend o mine who said that this was going to be a different type of recession then the ones we've had before in the uk.

the reason for this was that we now have a different type of economy. previously we were geared toward manufacturing, and now we are geared toward the service sector.

the key difference being that when a recession occurs and the population stops spending, the manufacturers get hit the hardest. As for the service sector, recession or no recession, you still need to service your car, have your hair cut. If a business is booming it needs accountants and lawyers, if its going bust, it still needs accountants and lawyers.

i'm not really sure its holding true. i have collected a lot of friends in the i.t. sector over my lifespan and am aware of equally hard times ahead for them. they used get out of bed and land a contract job, now, well, they stay lying in bed.

atleast 3 of them will be joining the jobless post christmas. so i dont have great hopes for january jobless no's. there might be a spike due to seasonal work, other then that its still in the pits.

The UK economy now has no more manufacturing strength but focused on financial sector. Due to the relative high cost of biz in the UK, it is only suitable for those higher margin sector such as finance, real estate, tourism. One obvious example is that the UK no longer has automotive manufacturing industry. The crisis has hit it especially hard and for the UK economy now is even more indebted compared to the US

Reduction in claiment count today, but no change in unemployment rate.

UK goverment is famous for massaging the numbers, or changing the definition of what a claiment is or what unemployment means.

Skilled engineers who were previously working at Jaguar or Rover now stacking shelves in Asda and Tescos for christmas.

And with a snap election looming, rumours are its going to be in May 2010, masssaging the numbers is going to be even more important.

I doubt the new year is going to bring much more cheer.

UK gdp numbers to be released tomorrow are expected to tell us that we're finally out of recession.

A finely tuned Labour party election machine will be out to juice it for all its worth.

I'm not a believer in 'V' shaped recoveries, so I suppose the double dip will have to wait until after the elections.

Heres to May 2010.

Nothing to celebrate. Price seems to say it all.

BOE's inflation report due out this week.

In my guestimation should be a good one.

Tanking my engine used to cost 35 pips a week. Now it costs well over 40 pips to fill up. And the cost of fuel is an important barometer.

I've never understood why inflation is considered such a good thing. All it does is make things cost more. Deflation is definately the way forward. Atleast money is worth something.

In macro-economics, inflation is considered to be better than deflation in the long run. Economics is governed by demand vs supply law. Chronic deflation reduce consumer demands as they put off purchase of their more valuable money and in anticipation of further price declines. This behavior will in turn reduce the overall production of goods & services, lower GDP, causes higher unemployment rates.

High inflation in fact is also considered harmful. As money losing value at fast speed, economic planning & development is difficult to implement, wages cannot rise fast enough to catch up with price increases, consumer demand can fall in real value as they become effectively poorer. Real income of companies can be smaller because of reduced overall demand and high inflation rate. High inflation can also cause falling confidence of the local currency, which further reduce its value.

The ideal economic environment thereby needs slightly moderate inflation rate, in the range of 1-2 percent annually. This would best stimulate the economy in the long run.

I think inflation/deflation is more a direct consequence of fiet currency.

"Sterling hammered by UK political uncertainty" Reuters



I haven't witnessed a UK election in the last 30 years where there wasn't speculation about ending up with a hung parliment.

I fail to remember the last time there was one.

I've been reliably informed that it was in 1974.

More than anyone would ever need or want to know about 1974...

http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/1974.html

http://www.infoplease.com/year/1974.html

http://www.answers.com/topic/1974

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_..._February_1974

I am in the UK, and here is some fundamental news from the street:
My cleaner says she can't come on Saturday as usual because she is going to a 'business summit'. When I asked, she said it was some banks coming to the church and 'you can borrow money!'.
There you go, make of it what you will.
Banks are desperate to lend or being made to?

Rejoice – the pound is down again

timesonline.co.uk


Last i heard, Japan holds significant ammount of foriegn reserves which more then offset most of its borrowing. Last i heard, the UK has to borrow even to have foriegn reserves.

Last i heard, Japan makes stuff people want to buy. Last i heard, manufacturing in Britain was having the last convulsions of a dieing dog. 'Made in GB' doesn't mean what it used to around the world 30 years ago.

Last i heard, the UK isn't the only country pursuing a policy of weakening its currency. So its still a level playing field internationally. Especially in those zones where most of our imports come from.

We may comparing apples and oranges here.