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The Really Really Boring Forex System

  • #81
  • Nov 29, 2009 10:28pm Nov 29, 2009 10:28pm
Eduardo,

I am currently in an AUD/USD long trade from 0.9100

Current price is close to 0.9200

Given current conditions, would you advise my adding to my position if price hits 0.9200? If so, same # of lots, or more? or less?

Thanks,
BC
  • #82
  • Nov 29, 2009 11:20pm Nov 29, 2009 11:20pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Eduardo,

I am currently in an AUD/USD long trade from 0.9100

Current price is close to 0.9200

Given current conditions, would you advise my adding to my position if price hits 0.9200? If so, same # of lots, or more? or less?

Thanks,
BC
Considering the news of the other day I'm playing the cautious route now and I have closed all except my original entry at 0.9120 taking small profits on all. I'm still keeping my stop loss at 0.885 but I am going to wait for a big push to the upside so I can lock in some profit before I risk any more capital.

For you I recommend either doing the same and waiting until we see some expected upside movement before adding on anymore and/or moving stops to break even on the profitable trades you have open until we see a clearer picture of the trend.

It's consolidated a little with some potentially adverse news but if you look at most xxxusd pairs they have had a similar wobble so my fundamental outlook hasn't changed yet, just a bit more cautious for a week or two.

Ed
  • #83
  • Nov 29, 2009 11:48pm Nov 29, 2009 11:48pm
Quoting Eduardo
Considering the news of the other day I'm playing the cautious route now and I have closed all except my original entry at 0.9120 taking small profits on all. I'm still keeping my stop loss at 0.885 but I am going to wait for a big push to the upside so I can lock in some profit before I risk any more capital.

For you I recommend either doing the same and waiting until we see some expected upside movement before adding on anymore and/or moving stops to break even on the profitable trades you have open until we see a clearer picture of the trend....
Thanks, Eduardo...much appreciated. I will follow your game plan.
  • #84
  • Nov 30, 2009 3:30am Nov 30, 2009 3:30am
Quoting Bobcat2
Thanks, Eduardo...much appreciated. I will follow your game plan.
Glad to see someone is

I think we should wait until we see a break above 0.93-0.94. That seems to be a pretty strong resistance level. Once it has broken and closed above 0.94 I think stops should be just below 0.93.

This could take a little while so not much action just yet. Boring, boring, boring, told you it would be.
  • #85
  • Nov 30, 2009 10:31pm Nov 30, 2009 10:31pm
Quoting Eduardo
Glad to see someone is

I think we should wait until we see a break above 0.93-0.94. That seems to be a pretty strong resistance level. Once it has broken and closed above 0.94 I think stops should be just below 0.93.

This could take a little while so not much action just yet. Boring, boring, boring, told you it would be.
No problem, Eduardo. I am more than content with boredom if the net results are tasty pip pie!
  • #86
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:01am Dec 1, 2009 8:01am
Up today, I think we could see the breakthrough in the next few days.
  • #87
  • Dec 4, 2009 12:03am Dec 4, 2009 12:03am
Quoting Eduardo
Up today, I think we could see the breakthrough in the next few days.
Eduardo,

I am patiently waiting...waiting...waiting
  • #88
  • Dec 4, 2009 5:19am Dec 4, 2009 5:19am
Quoting Bobcat2
Eduardo,

I am patiently waiting...waiting...waiting
93-94 is proving to be a really strong area. All the more reason that once it breaks it's a great place to put your stop just below. I'm happily just collecting the swap at the moment, position growth will come with time.
  • #89
  • Dec 7, 2009 9:24pm Dec 7, 2009 9:24pm
Hi Eduardo,

Waiting for the next entry is a lot like watching corn grow! lol

Price has eroded to the 0.9138 level. Would you consider a long entry at 0.9150?

Thanks,
BC
  • #90
  • Dec 7, 2009 9:57pm Dec 7, 2009 9:57pm
Hi All,

I stumbled across this thread and found it is exactly the same thing that I have resolved to do in my trading as well. Trade Swap positive with small positions and add when those positions can be covered and an entry presents itself. I truly believe this will be a sound strategy in the long run. Nice work you have brought to the forum Eduarado. Simple and effective I am sure.

I would like to share an 'indicator' with you that was thrown my way last year sometime. When I finally came to the conclusions that Eduardo did I realized the benefit of this indi. It seems to work properly and in my mind makes it a little easier to see which pairs are 'in play'. Personally I am combining it with other indicators to help determine trend direction and possible new entry points but I don't want to clutter the thread with a pile of indi's, however this one seems to work well with mt4 platform and I would like to share it with you all here. I hope you find it helpful.

Dan


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File Type: ex4 spread swap.ex4   4 KB | 417 downloads
  • #91
  • Dec 7, 2009 10:14pm Dec 7, 2009 10:14pm
Here's a screenshot of what the indi looks like.

My only wish is that I had been doing this since March and not just getting started!!!

As you can see I do have a entry in place. My stops are not quite as large as what Eduardo uses but I am comfortable with the risk.



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #92
  • Dec 8, 2009 1:43am Dec 8, 2009 1:43am
Quoting Bobcat2
Hi Eduardo,

Waiting for the next entry is a lot like watching corn grow! lol

Price has eroded to the 0.9138 level. Would you consider a long entry at 0.9150?

Thanks,
BC
I have a feeling the 91 level is going to hold but of course I don't know that. My original entry is at 91.20 so I'm hovering around break even at the moment and I'm not interested in opening any more until it's a bit higher (93-94 ish on the way back down).

If 91 breaks the next support is 89 which I would place a buy order at about 89.20 with the stop loss not far below 89. If it breaks that I would want to see positive signs of the uptrend resuming before I got involved again.

It's been stuck between 89 and 94 for quite a while now. Look how it has bounced between the support and resistance lines. When either of these boundaries breaks (and obviously I'm thinking it will be to the upside) we should see a fairly rapid move to the 96-97 level.

I know it's boring but just count the swap and when we do get the movement we are patiently waiting for we should be able to lock in some profit and get some more positions open
  • #93
  • Dec 8, 2009 1:55am Dec 8, 2009 1:55am
Quoting andante9
Hi All,

I stumbled across this thread and found it is exactly the same thing that I have resolved to do in my trading as well. Trade Swap positive with small positions and add when those positions can be covered and an entry presents itself. I truly believe this will be a sound strategy in the long run. Nice work you have brought to the forum Eduarado. Simple and effective I am sure.

I would like to share an 'indicator' with you that was thrown my way last year sometime. When I finally came to the conclusions that Eduardo did I realized...
Hi Dan, thanks for posting. I'm sure this will be a strategy that will come good in the end. I would have loved to have worked this out a little sooner as I'd probably have 2 or 3000 pips locked in now and a bundle in swap!

I loaded the indicator and it works fine. If you find it useful then use it but I already know the swap I get paid because it appears on my account every night. I know from looking at the interest rates table which pairs will give me a positive swap.

I'd say the trend direction is a fairly easy one to spot at the moment. Have a read of Jacko's thread if you haven't already. What indicators are you using to determine that?

I'm using good old fashioned support and resistance levels (from the silent service method thread) to determine my stop loss and entries.

Not much about my strategy is new, to me it's just the best bits from the best threads on this forum!

I look forward to you posting some new ideas anyway, it's always good to have other traders posting what they are thinking for the benefit of everyone else.

Ed
  • #94
  • Edited Dec 10, 2009 12:15pm Dec 9, 2009 7:10pm | Edited Dec 10, 2009 12:15pm
Here is what I put together a couple of days before I saw your thread and why I was excited to find your strategy.

The trend indicator is Trend Magic.
The entry is a ema4 and ema5 crossover w arrows.
The spread swap indicator is the primary indicator (never buy or sell negative swap for long term stategies). This indi makes it easy to browse different pairs but is not necessary in your method since you are trading only one pair.
The strategy is . . . the principles you have been discussing here in this thread and one that I saw myself recently.

I had this picture together to post in another forum but since it goes along so nicely with what you are doing here I decided to show it here. As you can see I am getting in very late in this trend however, you have to start somewhere and I just got a signal so I'm trying to establish a position.

EDIT: Reviewing this pic I see that entry 4 would have triggered and been stopped out. But by collecting the swap and letting your winners run the small losses are no big deal.

Attachment
  • #95
  • Dec 10, 2009 2:42am Dec 10, 2009 2:42am
Quoting andante9
Here is what I put together a couple of days before I saw your thread and why I was excited to find your strategy.

The trend indicator is Trend Magic.
The entry is a ema4 and ema5 crossover w arrows.
The spread swap indicator is the primary indicator (never buy or sell negative swap for long term stategies). This indi makes it easy to browse different pairs but is not necessary in your method since you are trading only one pair.
The strategy is . . . the principles you have been discussing here in this thread and one that I saw myself recently....
Well if all that works for you then go with it. I think I'll stick to the support and resistance method.

We are starting a bit late in the trend and when the trend does reverse or make a major consolidation then we'll get stopped out but I believe there is plenty of upside potential yet in this trend. A lot of Australian pundits are watching parity very closely this time, could well make a substantial move above it
  • #96
  • Dec 16, 2009 10:25pm Dec 16, 2009 10:25pm
Just bought at 0.8920. This is going to go one of two ways now, either 89 will hold or it won't. I still think it will, US interest rates are on hold and not much has changed fundamentally for the Aud. The next few days will tell.
  • #97
  • Dec 17, 2009 7:30am Dec 17, 2009 7:30am
Hi

Price is approaching a resistance zone at .8850 - If we break thru (and I hope not because I will be stopped out) I think we may see the pullback reach next resistance zone at .8500
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  • #98
  • Last Post: Dec 17, 2009 9:48am Dec 17, 2009 9:48am
It actually bounced from the 100 sma to the pip. I reckon it will close above 89 tonight and carry on up from there but I could easily be wrong.
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