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Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #501
  • Dec 9, 2009 11:45am Dec 9, 2009 11:45am
My main levels of interrest. Will be nice to see which hold. The zones at bottom would be my potential long entry zones but only for a quick trade as I consider those contra trend. That is because I am rather bearish at the moment.

Bearish because:

The recent HHs on EU were rather week and here we go with a collapse. I am looking for a LH to short this market.
AU has made a LH and the next up swing was unable to climb higher. We still need a LL and a LH after to be sure.
Kiwi is already moving down.
GU - eh unreliable chip-chop cartoon as it has been for a while.
Loonie has made a potential HL, yet to make a HH. Also, a recent resistance line held so there is still a lot of accounts to chop before it goes up.

The whole storry may as well turn out the other way around and after some additional rock and roll EU, AU, NU up and UCAD down again - original trends reestablish.

What say you guys?

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Kind Regards zol
  • #502
  • Dec 9, 2009 12:07pm Dec 9, 2009 12:07pm
Quoting zoli
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM
HA HA BRILANT.
  • #503
  • Dec 9, 2009 1:27pm Dec 9, 2009 1:27pm
Took time out for the YouTube post you submitted, all those bad trades just melted away, I'm not sure if this form of attachment is permitted, but I'm glad you posted it, it is trading after all.

Nice light relief to a hectic profession.
  • #504
  • Dec 9, 2009 1:55pm Dec 9, 2009 1:55pm
Thanks guys. I believe that by the time of mastering this stuff we may as well form a band like that. lol.
Kind Regards zol
  • #505
  • Dec 10, 2009 2:52am Dec 10, 2009 2:52am
@4750? anyone watching that?
  • #506
  • Edited 11:00am Dec 10, 2009 8:21am | Edited 11:00am
Quoting coolshades
@4750? anyone watching that?
I'm still waiting for a final drop and watching 1.4620 . If it doesn't, too bad, could be a long wait for the next retrace before getting into e/u long.

usd/cad would have been @ BE now, didn't take it

edit: btw, e/u is ranging for a while now (watch H4) you might want to wait until it breaks out of that range (small triangle), I'm hoping to the downside to the low of november (~ 1.4620)
  • #507
  • Dec 10, 2009 12:53pm Dec 10, 2009 12:53pm
i took this trade and still at be. i also made 100 pips off nzdusd long at 92 and recovered an earlier loss (AH trade),

however still need to recover losses from a usdjpy, gu and eu trade.



quote=bazooki;3296567]I'm still waiting for a final drop and watching 1.4620 . If it doesn't, too bad, could be a long wait for the next retrace before getting into e/u long.

usd/cad would have been @ BE now, didn't take it

edit: btw, e/u is ranging for a while now (watch H4) you might want to wait until it breaks out of that range (small triangle), I'm hoping to the downside to the low of november (~ 1.4620)[/quote]
  • #508
  • Dec 11, 2009 6:49am Dec 11, 2009 6:49am
all quiet on the western front?

in at eurusd at 1.475 (off daily)

looking at audusd at 9200
  • #509
  • Dec 11, 2009 10:40am Dec 11, 2009 10:40am
well, 1.4620 didn't hold... sorry to see you got into e/u too early . keep an eye on false break-outs, this was definitely a false one to the upside.

1.46 doesn't seem to be holding either.
  • #510
  • Dec 11, 2009 10:42am Dec 11, 2009 10:42am
didnt. was looking to enter, work beckoned and by the time i returned, price was way below.

Quoting bazooki
well, 1.4620 didn't hold... sorry to see you got into e/u too early . keep an eye on false break-outs, this was definitely a false one to the upside.

1.46 doesn't seem to be holding either.
  • #511
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:19pm Dec 11, 2009 3:19pm
ok good you didn't take it then. next area i'm watching and hoping to * finally * hold is 1.4450-1.4500. there isn't really a usable 50% fib, but it's near the october low (support) / august high (resistance). the weekly chart does provide a 50% fib to ~1.4450 (swing june-dec), don't know if we can use that.

Dan, we haven't heard from you since last week! your opinion is also appreciated.

have a nice weekend all.
  • #512
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:33pm Dec 13, 2009 1:33pm
liquidity will be very low now so be careful. i am more and more thinking that the uptrend is losing its steam. lets see.

Quoting bazooki
ok good you didn't take it then. next area i'm watching and hoping to * finally * hold is 1.4450-1.4500. there isn't really a usable 50% fib, but it's near the october low (support) / august high (resistance). the weekly chart does provide a 50% fib to ~1.4450 (swing june-dec), don't know if we can use that.

Dan, we haven't heard from you since last week! your opinion is also appreciated.

have a nice weekend all.
  • #513
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:47am Dec 14, 2009 8:47am
Quoting coolshades
liquidity will be very low now so be careful. i am more and more thinking that the uptrend is losing its steam. lets see.
you are right, perhaps it is even best not to trade the rest of this year anymore, because of this. some traders are even looking at 1.42-1.43

usd/cad is approaching the upper descending trend line again, however, I wouldn't trade this one, it looks like it's caught in an triangle (I guess you got stopped out last week?). you can see the triangle here, kindly already provided by Xj8. note this is a week-old chart, so price not up to date.
  • #514
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:26pm Dec 14, 2009 12:26pm
nope, i made 100 pips of usdcad last monday

Quoting bazooki
you are right, perhaps it is even best not to trade the rest of this year anymore, because of this. some traders are even looking at 1.42-1.43

usd/cad is approaching the upper descending trend line again, however, I wouldn't trade this one, it looks like it's caught in an triangle (I guess you got stopped out last week?). you can see the triangle here, kindly already provided by Xj8. note this is a week-old chart, so price not up to date.
...
  • #515
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:41am Dec 15, 2009 3:41am
Quoting bazooki
ok good you didn't take it then. next area i'm watching and hoping to * finally * hold is 1.4450-1.4500. there isn't really a usable 50% fib, but it's near the october low (support) / august high (resistance). the weekly chart does provide a 50% fib to ~1.4450 (swing june-dec), don't know if we can use that.

Dan, we haven't heard from you since last week! your opinion is also appreciated.

have a nice weekend all.
Hi Bazooki,

I haven't posted anything lately as I've decided to wrap up my trading for 2009 and take an early Christmas break! I am not keen on trading at this time of year unless there are really good signals... which there aren't at the moment (on the pairs I trade anyway!).

I do read everything being posted though so if you want any advice/help etc please ask and I will reply!

Regards,

Dan
  • #516
  • Dec 15, 2009 6:58am Dec 15, 2009 6:58am
Quoting DanUK
Hi Bazooki,

I haven't posted anything lately as I've decided to wrap up my trading for 2009 and take an early Christmas break! I am not keen on trading at this time of year unless there are really good signals... which there aren't at the moment (on the pairs I trade anyway!).

I do read everything being posted though so if you want any advice/help etc please ask and I will reply!

Regards,

Dan
Have a good xmas Dan and a prosperous 2010
  • #517
  • Dec 16, 2009 6:40am Dec 16, 2009 6:40am
Quoting Porkpie
Have a good xmas Dan and a prosperous 2010
Thanks Porkpie, Merry Christmas to you too!
  • #518
  • Dec 16, 2009 7:22am Dec 16, 2009 7:22am
Using a daily chart, I placed an inner Trend Line from 16th June, we had 3 touches from it before price gave up on it and broke through on the 15th December, I thought it may head towards 1.4450 where a 50% retrace level taken from the 16th June would see it bounce back to the inner TL and then resume back down.

The bigger picture shows a previous resistance line could become support much further down where a fib from 27th October 2008 shows a 50% retrace at around 1.3750.

For the shorter term 1.4600 and 1.4650 seem the most logical areas to sell. It's all best guesse at the moment, I don't have a good TL coming from the top (3rd Dec), best I can see is rather a steep one.[IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/Owner/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot.png[/IMG]
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  • #519
  • Dec 16, 2009 7:42am Dec 16, 2009 7:42am
Posting lower highs at the moment, suggests to me a probable sell if there is a decent set up. 16th November and 2nd December are the points I have taken my downward TL from, a fib from 16th November takes the 50% to approx. 1.6500 and the 19th Dec where there is confluence of three barriers. A fib taken from the second point of the upper TL on the 2nd December takes a 50% fib retrace to approx. 1.6450, giving confluence of three barriers around 22nd December.

I'll sit on my hands until I see something happen around these times, if price pushes its way through the lowere TL then I'll re-assess other probable set-ups.
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  • #520
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:44pm Dec 17, 2009 1:44pm
i hadnt looked at this thread for a long while since i thought most of us had downed tools on this system till new year.

i missed a few good short entries and i will be looking to short around 1.45,if at all it gets there!

Quoting Xj8
Posting lower highs at the moment, suggests to me a probable sell if there is a decent set up. 16th November and 2nd December are the points I have taken my downward TL from, a fib from 16th November takes the 50% to approx. 1.6500 and the 19th Dec where there is confluence of three barriers. A fib taken from the second point of the upper TL on the 2nd December takes a 50% fib retrace to approx. 1.6450, giving confluence of three barriers around 22nd December.

I'll sit on my hands until I see something happen around these times, if price pushes...
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