fxswing - Trading notes, analysis and market thoughts

New real new information in the market, still no new high.

Will let the market take daily low and 3 days low as support, before searching for reversal.

We're still above the 50% retracement of Monday's move at 1.4936.

If we go lower will watch 1.4918 (last week high) as potential support.

Take note that Latest high low swing 1.5063 - 1.4627 is 1.4845...

Can we close the week above 1.4844 former monthly high ?

Let's see if OIL can bounce from here ...

Market gapped above the breakout point at 1.4901.

Watching the weekly HVA above 1.5017.

Market looks stuck in a 1.4844 - 1.4968 range...

We're trading a lot below weekly LVA 1.4892, this could signal a future lower move, perhaps to test the monthly LVA 1.4686.

Market is rejecting the monthly HVA at 1.4968, even if the weekly HVA is higher at 1.5017.

Well I've been an avid reader since I discovered this thread a couple of months ago. Still trying to get my head around it - but very nice looking charts.

Please don't stop posting...

Regards,
David

I'm in year end light trading mode now.
But I will try to find time to post some charts (probably on week-end).

Will restart full trading activities and journal on January 2 2010

I was expecting maybe another week of trade-able markets but it all seems pretty stale today!

David

Here we go....


EURUSD trend change alert !!!
Market was able to take the important 1.4627 swing low.
Now it will probably retrace, but uptrend can't be trusted ANYMORE, unless a new a high above 1.5145 is made invalidate that move.

Probable retracement point 1.4883. First VPOC 1.4836.

No trend complacency anymore, EURUSD must prove the direction, before any more risk is committed to the long trend side.

But it's still not a downtrending market, we've just hit the neutral point.
1.4600-1.4900 probably the new range unless we collapse to sub 1.4500.

Buying now the 1.4627 low with a retracement target 1.4883. Strict MM and tight stop because of the lack of market trend.
Stops below 1.4580, time frame 2-15 days.

Market magic in action.

We retested the 2007 close / 2008 open today

1.4587 is a critical point, watch the potential gigantic bear trap there...

What is clear is that the 1.3972-1.4587 should provide very strong support next year...

Do you think that it's a coincidence ?

Don't think so, market magic in action, indeed

If we can stay above the 1.4627 break point, we could retrace up to the 1.4817-1.4844 zone.

Notice how the weekly value traded below the monthly value.
EURUSD will stay weak until it can trade above the weekly LVA 1.4682 and close above it.

Food for thoughts...

Was already out of eurusd bull trend below 1.4827.

Now I'll let the dust settle and will only take small intraday trades, nothing big and no swing trades before January 18, 2010...

No need to fight, and hurt the account, will enjoy the Christmas Season, and prepare for next year trading

Watching weekly value boundaries...

USD/CHF showing topping action ?

Potential support 1.2239-1.2249.