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GbpUsd 5 min breakout

  • #81
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:13am Dec 8, 2009 10:13am
Quoting j0ker
nice work Cain, the system is really great, i took ~60pips, too but box was huge @ 8:15 with nearly 45+20pips buffer.

what i figured out by watching the last month´s charts that maybe the SL doesnt need to be that great, about 70-80% of the box would do it and will increase profitability by trading bigger sizes and increasing risk reward ratio.

maybe someone can confirm that or has made the same observations?

I thought the same! I will start testing that idea in no time j0ker, it seems promising.
  • #82
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:16am Dec 8, 2009 10:16am
Quoting ghpking
Thanks, Cains, Great work, Great Strategy !
I read it last night, and did a few back testings, and put on a live trade today, and just now on the computer, it TP 68 pips, great !
Thanks a lot for show the light in Forex !

I'm glad for you! And for me!
  • #83
  • Dec 8, 2009 1:57pm Dec 8, 2009 1:57pm
I'm glad for both of you. I think we are close to a major support area for the pound, or resistance for the dollar or vise versa, be interesting to see what happens. should not make much difference to this system, bounce or break could be a strong move.
  • #84
  • Dec 8, 2009 2:02pm Dec 8, 2009 2:02pm
Did some backtesting for GBPJPY, since 3rd of November, 2009 till today.

783,1 pips

42 open trades
2 days gave me breakeven
2 days gave me losses on both orders

Seems nice.
  • #85
  • Dec 8, 2009 2:21pm Dec 8, 2009 2:21pm
Im liking this more and more!

Oz
  • #86
  • Dec 8, 2009 2:51pm Dec 8, 2009 2:51pm
I think you can afford 2 more dogs.
  • #87
  • Dec 8, 2009 3:00pm Dec 8, 2009 3:00pm
I do not follow this strategy, but I would like to offer some friendly adivce from someone who has been trading a little while.

I trade breakouts alongside my normal long term/swing and scalp trades. They can be profitable, but need to be backtested properly.

Please do not base past performance on 2 months backtests. You need to manually backtest 3 years minimum and then forward test 6 months before thinking of using a system such as this. Your method may work over the last 8 weeks, but could have failed for the rest of the year...I don't know because I haven't checked, but you should seriously consider testing thoroughly.

I only say this because I have seen so many methods work well for traders, only for them to fail 6 months -12 months later.

I wish you all great success, honestly, but please back test a couple of years manually first before committing cash.

I haven't singled you out, I mention this to plenty of other traders who stumble across a intial great preforming method/system.

All the best and I wish you success
  • #88
  • Dec 8, 2009 3:47pm Dec 8, 2009 3:47pm
Quoting direct-trade
I do not follow this strategy, but I would like to offer some friendly adivce from someone who has been trading a little while.

I trade breakouts alongside my normal long term/swing and scalp trades. They can be profitable, but need to be backtested properly.

Please do not base past performance on 2 months backtests. You need to manually backtest 3 years minimum and then forward test 6 months before thinking of using a system such as this. Your method may work over the last 8 weeks, but could have failed for the rest of the year...I don't know...

I agree with you, a 8 week backtest is not nearly enough to define a trading method as profitable or not.
Breakout techniques are specially inconstant, sometimes they work pretty good and then fail on other periods, although I do not think that a backtest should be as long as 3 years, the market changes quickly, and I tend to change with the market.
This strategy was tested from the beginning of this year with very good results, I lost my notes on that though... I explained that AMAZING story some pages ago.
I will can test it again, so I can provide more statistical confidence to those who happen to trade this technique, but at the moment I'm too busy with college.
Some help on that backtest would be appreciated for those who need that extra confidence boost.
I do have some issues on other people backtest results, I prefer my own research, its boring, it takes time, but it pays out.

For me I don't need it, I already tested the method back enough (at least in my opinion, a year is enough for me) and I was very pleased with my results on this pair (GBPUSD), this last test was just the result of a boring afternoon and does not represent a valid statistical sample, no one should trade it live based on such a tiny sample.
I personally dont feel the need to trade another pairs, I only trade GBPUSD, one market, one pair.


Good luck for your trades too Direct-trade, and thanks for your insight, you seem to be a experienced trader and your opinion is much appreciated here.

May the force be with you!
  • #89
  • Dec 8, 2009 6:06pm Dec 8, 2009 6:06pm
I've being visualy testing eur/usd at 8 o clock(one hour after the cable set up) this also looks good.Will keep ye posted.
  • #90
  • Dec 8, 2009 6:07pm Dec 8, 2009 6:07pm
Hi Cain,

Good work mate...could you please tell me that if you had say three losses in a row do you double up again for the fourth trade or cut your losses after two losses????

Keep up the good work..I'll be following with interest!!!!
  • #91
  • Dec 8, 2009 6:14pm Dec 8, 2009 6:14pm
Quoting fxblinkers
Hi Cain,

Good work mate...could you please tell me that if you had say three losses in a row do you double up again for the fourth trade or cut your losses after two losses????

Keep up the good work..I'll be following with interest!!!!
I only double if the first trade is a loss, if I have two losses in a row I stop. Next day I will keep normal lot size.
  • #92
  • Dec 9, 2009 2:41am Dec 9, 2009 2:41am
Hello Cain,

Thank you for sharing your system.

I placed my first trade today, Hopefully I got it right, but I took 49 pips.

Could you confirm the following?

FXCM MT4, I chose the 8:00-8:10 bars for 12/09 (I believe MT4 is GMT+1). This is 2:00 am Eastern Time

The Hi was 1.61942 and the Low was 1.616.48
Opened the buy at 1.62042, stop at 1.615.48 and TP at 1.62536 (Hit in 70 minutes)

The sell was placed at 1.61548, stop at 1.61942 and TP at 1.61054


Thanks again!
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip GU BreakOut.numbers.zip   95 KB | 379 downloads
  • #93
  • Dec 9, 2009 2:54am Dec 9, 2009 2:54am
Happy Days, 49 more pips in the bank this morning.
  • #94
  • Dec 9, 2009 5:46am Dec 9, 2009 5:46am
Well done today guys.. I had a late night so slept through this mornings open. I spotted a similar method over on babypips and the guy had pretty decent results..you might get a few ideas from his back testing to improve this method even more. See the link below...

http://forums.babypips.com/free-fore...-breakout.html

Hey Cain, I understand this is a basic question but could you please clear up for me the time of the box. I am based in Ireland so my time is GMT. Do you use 8am -8.10am or 7am-7.10am..I just want to be 100% sure before I start testing... thanks again for sharing with us and I will post up some of my charts with entries from tomorrow on...

Blinkers........
  • #95
  • Dec 9, 2009 5:53am Dec 9, 2009 5:53am
I'm still following this thread, but backtesting is showing mixed results. The main problem are the days when you have an initial loser, so you double your lot size on the next trade and that loses too.

If your pending orders are 5% of capital, the above scenario loses 15% which means you need another 3 winners (without compounding) to break even.

Now the win/loss ratio is pretty good but a couple of losers wipes you out.

November and the beginning of December have been very good, but September and October were only OK. July was a loser.

Well done to Cain for bringing this system, but Novembers successes are a little misleading so I'm trying to find a way to cut the losses...
  • #96
  • Dec 9, 2009 8:37am Dec 9, 2009 8:37am
Quoting fxblinkers
Well done today guys.. I had a late night so slept through this mornings open. I spotted a similar method over on babypips and the guy had pretty decent results..you might get a few ideas from his back testing to improve this method even more. See the link below...

http://forums.babypips.com/free-fore...-breakout.html

Hey Cain, I understand this is a basic question but could you please clear up for me the time of the box. I am based in Ireland so my time is GMT. Do you use 8am -8.10am...
So i'm not alone here Blinkers,7 and 7.10 Wexford time,keep in touch.
  • #97
  • Dec 9, 2009 10:21am Dec 9, 2009 10:21am
Quoting Pips Queak
I'm still following this thread, but backtesting is showing mixed results. The main problem are the days when you have an initial loser, so you double your lot size on the next trade and that loses too.

If your pending orders are 5% of capital, the above scenario loses 15% which means you need another 3 winners (without compounding) to break even.

Now the win/loss ratio is pretty good but a couple of losers wipes you out.

November and the beginning of December have been very good, but September and October were only OK. July was a loser....
I think the same, and like I said before its best to move the stop to breakeven after certain box size distance is done so at least there won't be any loses.

This method is abit like the 'Early Bird Catches the Worm' method here:-

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=197615

I have tried at the hours of 1:30am GMT for Asian open, London open and US open and most months barley give a profit and just about break even...
  • #98
  • Dec 9, 2009 1:42pm Dec 9, 2009 1:42pm
Another good day, very good shooting Cain.
  • #99
  • Dec 9, 2009 2:11pm Dec 9, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting slade1986
Hello Cain,

Thank you for sharing your system.

I placed my first trade today, Hopefully I got it right, but I took 49 pips.

Could you confirm the following?

FXCM MT4, I chose the 8:00-8:10 bars for 12/09 (I believe MT4 is GMT+1). This is 2:00 am Eastern Time

The Hi was 1.61942 and the Low was 1.616.48
Opened the buy at 1.62042, stop at 1.615.48 and TP at 1.62536 (Hit in 70 minutes)

The sell was placed at 1.61548, stop at 1.61942 and TP at 1.61054


Thanks again!

You're correct!
  • #100
  • Dec 9, 2009 2:34pm Dec 9, 2009 2:34pm
Quoting Pips Queak
I'm still following this thread, but backtesting is showing mixed results. The main problem are the days when you have an initial loser, so you double your lot size on the next trade and that loses too.

If your pending orders are 5% of capital, the above scenario loses 15% which means you need another 3 winners (without compounding) to break even.

Now the win/loss ratio is pretty good but a couple of losers wipes you out.

November and the beginning of December have been very good, but September and October were only OK. July was a loser....
You have to remember that in July we were in day light saving time and the clocks were one hour behind, being that way, we would trade this breakout box at 7.15 am GMT+1 and not at 8.15 am GMT +1.

I re-did a quick back-test to July and it wasn't a loser, I have 264,4 pips profit (this value already has the typical spread of 2,5 pips subtracted). And don't forget important news releases, chart patterns and of course common sense.
264,4 pips in 20 trading days gives you a average profit of 13,22 pips a day, compound that according to your risk (mine is normally 3% of my total capital) and account value and you will get a sweet profit (in my opinion at least).

About the doubling lots question, you can choose not to do it if you're not comfortable with the risk and you will end with a break even day... far better than a loser.


Let me know if you find some way to reduce the losses of filter some of the whipsaws, that would be nice!


Thanks for for effort on the backtest though Pips Queak!


Cain
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