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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #11,421
  • Dec 5, 2009 5:42pm Dec 5, 2009 5:42pm
[quote=Kooz;3284066]Hey guys...a little late to the party...but in this case I think it is better late that not show up! I hope to become a active member on this thread as I highly value FTI's teachings.

My background: I have been trading forex on/off for about 4 years. Just recently joined FF as a member and hope to become a contributor on this thread.

This story really resonated with me as one of my scorpions is take have this contrarion mindset of overbought/oversold. It immediately brought up memory of Thanksgiving day 2009 where I was buying the USD/Yen on the dips at oversold levels and taking small profits.

I was in retrospect, picking pennies in front of a steamroller as i established a fresh long position only to see the market keep falling away. As some of you may know, that was a particularly volatile day for the usd/Yen but after a very nerve wrecking rescue session I was able to come back out at breakeven....however, i had to "fight tooth and nail just to get there"

I hope to learn more, specifically the attack skews and strategy in the coming days .

Welcome to the thread Kooz,
I'm also junior(newbie too) here, but with your experience 4 yrs me & newbies can learn from you. Thanks in advance & hope to hear from you.

Have a good weekend.
  • #11,422
  • Dec 5, 2009 5:59pm Dec 5, 2009 5:59pm
Quoting Fana
Yes - guitar and violins..I had music group, but now i have a rest because of trading... Happy weekend to all :-)
Well we have 4 musicians now - well great.

@Fana - you must be good ha with your own band what type of music you play?

@M-H trader - you are very young & your potential is very very high. R u trading full time now?

Me I had a band long long time ago I play pop music right now temporary stop due to working full time & trading(and also study about trading). Hopefully I set up a band again(just for fun) when I can be able to trade full time(hopefully 6 months times) bcos I dont have to work anymore just trading ha ha hopefully I'll make it.

Have a good weekend
  • #11,423
  • Dec 5, 2009 9:34pm Dec 5, 2009 9:34pm
Quoting pete.alfa
@M-H trader - you are very young & your potential is very very high. R u trading full time now?

Me I had a band long long time ago I play pop music right now temporary stop due to working full time & trading(and also study about trading). Hopefully I set up a band again(just for fun) when I can be able to trade full time(hopefully 6 months times) bcos I dont have to work anymore just trading ha ha hopefully I'll make it.

Have a good weekend
Hey Pete

I'm almost trading full time hours wise but not capital wise. I study/trade as much as i can so its a work in progress.
  • #11,424
  • Dec 6, 2009 6:14am Dec 6, 2009 6:14am
Quoting pete.alfa
Well we have 4 musicians now - well great.

@Fana - you must be good ha with your own band what type of music you play?

@M-H trader - you are very young & your potential is very very high. R u trading full time now?

Me I had a band long long time ago I play pop music right now temporary stop due to working full time & trading(and also study about trading). Hopefully I set up a band again(just for fun) when I can be able to trade full time(hopefully 6 months times) bcos I dont have to work anymore just trading ha ha hopefully...
Hello Pete
Electronical bacgrounds with live instruments. I just do programming and sing. I am going to do also guitar, because of troubles with guitarists. Itis very interesting, that when i want to find some really good persons to cooperate. That is one of the most difficulties, life provides... And that is just also why i have choosen TRADING. I like to drive myself best i can. It depends only on me. That is what i need, wen i do anything. I am such person... Only my girlfriend can enter into my decission process...
  • #11,425
  • Edited 7:53am Dec 7, 2009 2:53am | Edited 7:53am
been long time since london gave such a treat...
good trade to all

a nice passtime read
http://www.cigaraficionado.com/Cigar...22,491,00.html
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,426
  • Dec 7, 2009 3:21am Dec 7, 2009 3:21am
Quoting maheswara
been long time since london gave such a treat...
good trade to all
You are right. I caught a nice downward movement on the EUR/USD. I wonder if it will keep going. Anyway, all the best and good trading. Ray
  • #11,427
  • Dec 7, 2009 6:55pm Dec 7, 2009 6:55pm
Hi All,
heard this report on 29 nov 2009.
can any one verify if this is true?

Inserted Video


any clues much appreciated.
  • #11,428
  • Dec 7, 2009 7:23pm Dec 7, 2009 7:23pm
Quoting fti
Hi All,
heard this report on 29 nov 2009.
can any one verify if this is true?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RACRiUA5vmQ

any clues much appreciated.
The troop buildup in Afghanistan is correct, Some are being deployed now, with the bulk to ship out early 2010. Total additional troops 30K.

Is the Russian report creditable? I had heard that Bush 3 years ago, had tried to repeal the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, stemming from our Civil War which basically bans the Military from conducting deployment on US soil, instead local law enforcement agencys are used and each state's governor has within their ability to call up his/hers own states National Guard to help in local state matters, but not the US Military, we would have to be under a state of martial law for that to happen, a very serious step to undertake.

It begs to ask the question, what did they know then?

Since 9-11 the edges of Military versus Civil jurisdiction have been blurred under the name of domestic terrorism defense, we have given up some freedoms for the giuse of protection.

Can it happen, possibly....... it's called the (SHIF) scenario, shit hits the fan, a classic example of what to expect was played out in the Argentine economic crisis (1999–2002).

But if (when) we go down, the total world financial system will go with it. Hey, everyone's been looking for a one world government???? Wait till next year and we can not finance our short term debt, some 3.5 trillion dollars or over 30% of our GDP, what happens then????

Regards,
  • #11,429
  • Edited 7:49pm Dec 7, 2009 7:38pm | Edited 7:49pm
Quoting auxesis
The troop buildup in Afghanistan is correct, Some are being deployed now, with the bulk to ship out early 2010. Total additional troops 30K.

Is the Russian report creditable?...
thanks aux,
noted, scary contingencies.
so first sign is usd going down pips, for "shif" to take place?
I am watching that bear with eagle eyes.

regards.

Was wondering why chet was kissing heli below belt, yesterday.
Seems they know something.
If the usd plunges, and he wants cheap euros, europe will hyper-inflate. Really wonder where these people read their economics. Makes for bad Alumni.
  • #11,430
  • Dec 7, 2009 8:30pm Dec 7, 2009 8:30pm
Quoting fti
Was wondering why chet was kissing heli below belt, yesterday.
Seems they know something.
If the usd plunges, and he wants cheap euros, europe will hyper-inflate. Really wonder where these people read their economics. Makes for bad Alumni.
Hyper-inflation, that's what I expect next year here, Heli will be forced to raise rates to lure Treasury buyers, as the required servicing of our short term debt ( 2 Trillion due) plus an additional expected 1.5 trillion deficit will be unsustainable--- while they keep purchasing them through 3rd party sources to keep the illusion of stability and faith in the system, rates continue to climb to keep attracting more offshore inflows as the skepticism grows over the ability of the US to repay, past performance will win out for a while till the shell game is up, buy that time interest rates and inflation will have left the average US citizens with nothing as their fiat dollar will not be worth the paper it's printed on.

my .0000000002 cents

BTW. It's good to see you back!!!
  • #11,431
  • Dec 7, 2009 9:33pm Dec 7, 2009 9:33pm
And to top off the night, here's one that really gets my goat... like we need to spend more %&#@*! money

http://www.thenewamerican.com/index....-stimulus-bill
  • #11,432
  • Dec 7, 2009 9:42pm Dec 7, 2009 9:42pm
lets say u ve a company with huge debt amount, and u know u will never be able to pay it back , no matter how much u increase ur production...
u r collapsing sooner or later ,

wont u try to borrow as much as u can before defaulting, since anyway when u dafault everything is back to 0...

I think this is the same mindset they have now...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,433
  • Dec 7, 2009 9:58pm Dec 7, 2009 9:58pm
Quoting maheswara
lets say u ve a company with huge debt amount, and u know u will never be able to pay it back , no matter how much u increase ur production...
u r collapsing sooner or later ,

wont u try to borrow as much as u can before defaulting, since anyway when u dafault everything is back to 0...

I think this is the same mindset they have now...
Except the country defaults and owes the FED everything.

Here's an interesting read on the time line of the Argentine collapse.

http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/8040.pdf
  • #11,434
  • Dec 7, 2009 10:56pm Dec 7, 2009 10:56pm
Quoting auxesis
Except the country defaults and owes the FED everything.

Here's an interesting read on the time line of the Argentine collapse.

http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/8040.pdf
interesting read, the asian crisis was more or less very similar,
looks like currency devaluation is a natural effect for excessive debt structure...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,435
  • Dec 8, 2009 12:43am Dec 8, 2009 12:43am
looking at e/u 4839 for scout entry with no feel of direction, any thoughts?.
  • #11,436
  • Dec 8, 2009 4:51am Dec 8, 2009 4:51am
Hi ALL,

Hope everyone is doing well.
This very trying times, be careful, watch the exposure size.

Will be posting , when I settle down.
Nice to be back.

regards
  • #11,437
  • Dec 8, 2009 5:00am Dec 8, 2009 5:00am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,

Hope everyone is doing well.
This very trying times, be careful, watch the exposure size.

Will be posting , when I settle down.
Nice to be back.

regards
Thanks for the hint and welcome back. Ray
  • #11,438
  • Dec 8, 2009 5:08am Dec 8, 2009 5:08am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,

Hope everyone is doing well.
This very trying times, be careful, watch the exposure size.

Will be posting , when I settle down.
Nice to be back.

regards
Welcome back Sir.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #11,439
  • Dec 8, 2009 5:51am Dec 8, 2009 5:51am
Quoting luSan
Welcome back Sir.
Hi Lusan,
How's the going?

Just a HongKong Singer
Inserted Video


regards
  • #11,440
  • Dec 8, 2009 5:56am Dec 8, 2009 5:56am
Quoting fti
Hi Lusan,
How's the going?

Just a HongKong Singer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTBptF3-ySg&fmt=18

regards
Hi FTI!

How are you doing?

I'm still around and kicking....

Nice to see you again here.

Rgs,

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