Support line is near 1.486
Watch the rise (or fall) of a trader gone naked
Hi,
I thought for a while, when the Euro broke through 1.5062, that the up trend would continue. I can still see higher lows but no higher highs above 1.5150. To me, it looks like a short term consolidation between the supporting trend line and the horizontal resistance. This kind of situation usually ends up in a break out on the upside.
Since the market hasn't left the 1.5 area behind, there are doubts if it will continue north or go back to the south. I've got the option to wait until the direction is clear again or I can trade the lines counting on that the overall upward moving trend will continue.
So... the plan until the situation changes is to buy at the support line with an initial SL of at least 100 pips. When in a trade and the price gets near the horizontal resistance, I will put a trailing on it.
Detailed chart
Overview
I thought for a while, when the Euro broke through 1.5062, that the up trend would continue. I can still see higher lows but no higher highs above 1.5150. To me, it looks like a short term consolidation between the supporting trend line and the horizontal resistance. This kind of situation usually ends up in a break out on the upside.
Since the market hasn't left the 1.5 area behind, there are doubts if it will continue north or go back to the south. I've got the option to wait until the direction is clear again or I can trade the lines counting on that the overall upward moving trend will continue.
So... the plan until the situation changes is to buy at the support line with an initial SL of at least 100 pips. When in a trade and the price gets near the horizontal resistance, I will put a trailing on it.
Detailed chart
Overview
- #145
- Dec 4, 2009 8:52am Dec 4, 2009 8:52am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,462 Posts
It's Friday and there's the NFP.
Have a nice weekend!
beam
Also...how did the user name "beam" come about? Hinting towards a BMW owner?
Following your blog beam, good stuff.
Also...how did the user name "beam" come about? Hinting towards a BMW owner?
Today, the NFP brought the market down to the support line. I don't like to enter trades just before the weekend. But I will look into it again within a couple of hours.
beam
On the news tonight, they talked about that the NFP today indicated an end of the recession of the US economy. Maybe the EURUSD trend will change. A lower low, below 1.48, will be a decent half signal. We will see. I think extreme caution is suitable now.
For the last time this week: Have a nice weekend!
Best regards,
beam "maybe-too-much-whiskey-for-posting"
But then again, who can turn down a glass of Lagavulin? Maybe the best Single Malt in the world.
For the last time this week: Have a nice weekend!
Best regards,
beam "maybe-too-much-whiskey-for-posting"
But then again, who can turn down a glass of Lagavulin? Maybe the best Single Malt in the world.
My stop order to buy got run over by 14 pips only. So the general idea with a buy stop was good, but I was too greedy with the distance. I wanted to pick up too much pips in the assumed climb.
I will now sit back and enjoy the show. The plan is to wait for the next retrace. As usual... Boring, yes, but profitable I hope.
beam
I will now sit back and enjoy the show. The plan is to wait for the next retrace. As usual... Boring, yes, but profitable I hope.
beam
- #154
- Dec 7, 2009 2:59pm Dec 7, 2009 2:59pm
- Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Suaviter in modo, fortiter in re | 1,851 Posts
My stop order to buy got run over by 14 pips only. So the general idea with a buy stop was good, but I was too greedy with the distance. I wanted to pick up too much pips in the assumed climb.
I will now sit back and enjoy the show. The plan is to wait for the next retrace. As usual... Boring, yes, but profitable I hope.
beam
It's tough when you look back at the charts and think 'I coulda traded that setup' but you've got to go with your instincts sometimes and accept that no position is also a position.
Let's see what tomorrow brings.
I'm not a Monday trader as a rule but I made myself do nothing today. It was such a big reaction on Friday's NFP I am waiting to see if there is any real change in direction.
It's tough when you look back at the charts and think 'I coulda traded that setup' but you've got to go with your instincts sometimes and accept that no position is also a position.
Let's see what tomorrow brings.
My mistake this time was that I was that I trusted the trend too much. My instinct told me that the market could go anywhere, but I was so determined to go with the trend, no matter what. The lesson is learned and payed for.
Thanks,
beam
Hi,
You probably think that this is it. The "naked" trader has gone nuts, and has gone back to his foolish quest for the Holy Grail.
But it is not so, believe it or not. Have a look at Using Bollinger Band "Bands" To Gauge Trends by Boris Schlossberg. I haven't added the B. Bands to my chart as a signal. It is meant to be a tool with which I can better analyze the market situation. Read the article and you will figure out how.
Now, back to the market. On the weekly chart, there is obviously a retrace going on. A new resistance line is also now visible. On the daily, there is nothing else to do but to wait for a retrace (and the end of it).
I hope this week will bring you great profits!
Weekly chart
Daily chart
You probably think that this is it. The "naked" trader has gone nuts, and has gone back to his foolish quest for the Holy Grail.
But it is not so, believe it or not. Have a look at Using Bollinger Band "Bands" To Gauge Trends by Boris Schlossberg. I haven't added the B. Bands to my chart as a signal. It is meant to be a tool with which I can better analyze the market situation. Read the article and you will figure out how.
Now, back to the market. On the weekly chart, there is obviously a retrace going on. A new resistance line is also now visible. On the daily, there is nothing else to do but to wait for a retrace (and the end of it).
I hope this week will bring you great profits!
Weekly chart
Daily chart