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$5k to infinite

  • #61
  • Nov 30, 2009 5:42am Nov 30, 2009 5:42am
Xar,

agree that this Dubai news is not that big or serious. the stock markets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi fell only about 8% or so. i use the word only because if this news was so serious i would have expected double digit falls.

ofcourse if you read the economic publications, they are reporting this Dubai news and the stock market fall as if it was the end of the world.

last point - every man and his dog knew that Dubai was and is credit burdened. surely the lenders to Dubai were expecting some sort of request to restructure debt or delay payment plan? isnt that how the real world works?



Quoting Xaron
Good morning!

Review

Wohoo! Now that was a rollercoaster last week. The US had their long thanksgiving weekend and there was an islamic holiday as well so we had very thin market conditions. And guess what? Dubai just announced they want a loan to set on hold. Now that was a bomb right into low liquidity markets. Honi soit qui mal y pense.
Right. So everyone and his grandma at the desks got in panic and as there were some holidays the juniors might have pulled the plug and pushed the Dollar up like there is no tomorrow. As I saw this...
  • #62
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:47pm Dec 1, 2009 7:47pm
Hi Xaron,

I have following your thread since november and I simply amazed by your result.

One thing that puzzle me about your long position on USD/JPY. The pair is on a downtrend right now and only the last 2 days that it shows sign of reversal.

What is your judgment to enter long USD/JPY? Is it simply because it's cheap historically or do you have a fundamental reason for this?

Thanks!
  • #63
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:13am Dec 2, 2009 1:13am
Good morning!

Just a short one. I closed my Dollar shorts and went long with another small position in the USD/JPY and added a small EUR/USD short. Not that I expect something spectacular but Gold raised to 1215 and it looks like it could see some profit taking soon. At least that's why I went short in the Euro.

I'm very confident with the USD/JPY that we've seen the bottom. I can't imagine to see it go below 84 at the moment where some intervention might took place.


Open trades

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...ons_021209.png


Prices

AUD/USD 0.9260
EUR/GBP 0.9090
EUR/USD 1.5080
GBP/USD 1.6580
USD/CAD 1.0460
USD/CHF 1.0000
USD/JPY 87.30
USD/NOK 5.6100
Gold 1212
Silver 19.20
Oil 78.80
Dax 5770
Dow Jones 10470


Account Summary

Starting date: 03-Nov-09
Starting Balance: $5,000

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/account_021209.png
  • #64
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:15am Dec 2, 2009 1:15am
Quoting jak12310
Hi Xaron,

I have following your thread since november and I simply amazed by your result.

One thing that puzzle me about your long position on USD/JPY. The pair is on a downtrend right now and only the last 2 days that it shows sign of reversal.

What is your judgment to enter long USD/JPY? Is it simply because it's cheap historically or do you have a fundamental reason for this?

Thanks!
Thanks! Regarding the USD/JPY I'm rather sure we've found the bottom due to the following facts:

1st: BOJ speaks about intervention and will sell the Yen if it continues.
2nd: The Dollar will see some love again, at least in short term
3rd: USDJPY might run into a wall around 84.00. Why?

84.00 (USDJPY) divided by 6.83 (USDCNY) = 12.30 (CNYJPY). This was the line in CNYJPY in November 1999 and Jan 2005. It might be so again in Q1 2010.
  • #65
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:26am Dec 2, 2009 6:26am
Xaron,

Thank you for your reply.

I notice that you closed your AUD/USD position. Technically speaking it is already break .9200 and now on the way to break .9300. Shouldn't you move the grid up instead?

Is it because your view of AUD/USD direction has change? Or is it because you expect feds going to hint a rate increase by the release of biege book today?

Thanks!
  • #66
  • Dec 5, 2009 1:41pm Dec 5, 2009 1:41pm
Transactions from this week. I had a hard day yesterday, but I've survived heavier storms...

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/account_051209.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...ons_051209.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...s_041209_1.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...s_041209_2.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...s_041209_3.png
  • #67
  • Dec 5, 2009 2:51pm Dec 5, 2009 2:51pm
Quoting Xaron
Transactions from this week. I had a hard day yesterday, but I've survived heavier storms...

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/account_051209.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...ons_051209.png

Aaron, you are a very good trader but i want to ask...why do you trade so many pairs that involve USD? Why are you long on AU, EU, and short UC... wouldnt it be safer and easier just to bump up position size on 1 pair and only focus on 1 chart.
Going to make it big by age 21.
  • #68
  • Dec 6, 2009 1:24pm Dec 6, 2009 1:24pm
And what are yout thoughts? Do you think EUR/USD continue rally in uptrend? Or it is patterns of downtrend? How long do you think yo keep your position eur/usd open?
By the way, very nice results
  • #69
  • Dec 6, 2009 1:33pm Dec 6, 2009 1:33pm
Quoting dstryr
Aaron, you are a very good trader but i want to ask...why do you trade so many pairs that involve USD? Why are you long on AU, EU, and short UC... wouldnt it be safer and easier just to bump up position size on 1 pair and only focus on 1 chart.
You are completely right. All I do is play against the USD which can be done easier with trading one pair. Especially the AU and EU behave somewhat linear correlated, the UC is a bit special though.

I thought about that as well and might do it in the future.
  • #70
  • Dec 6, 2009 1:34pm Dec 6, 2009 1:34pm
Quoting Slotery
And what are yout thoughts? Do you think EUR/USD continue rally in uptrend? Or it is patterns of downtrend? How long do you think yo keep your position eur/usd open?
By the way, very nice results
Thanks. As long as 1.48 holds I see no down potential. And with "holds" I mean a close above on the daily. If it goes lower I will have to close some longs. BUT, I don't think we have a trend change now.
  • #71
  • Dec 8, 2009 2:27am Dec 8, 2009 2:27am
Good morning!

Review

Ho... I've sweated yesterday. But first to Friday. Looks like we have a return to the fundamentals. The US news were somewhat good, at least better than expected (even though this fancy calculation makes the numbers look better than they actually are). So for the first time the USD went up together with the stocks.

On monday the Euro took another dive but made a low exactly at my daily trendline around 1.4760:

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/eurusd_081209.png

That level is very important now. A close(!) below would make up some more room to the south.


Analysis

So I had to close some of my longs to keep my leverage in control and added a nice 3:1 right at that trendline support with a stop at BE now. I don't have anything new and I'm still very confident about the long term USD weakness but the question is of course how low it can go before. For now the support seems to hold, the Euro did not close below 1.48 and we have some kind of a pin bar in the daily even though this doesn't necessarily mean something.


Plan

At the moment no changes. I'll wait for higher levels to load off my positions and would close some longs if the lows are broken.


Open trades

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...ons_081209.png


Prices

AUD/USD 0.9110
EUR/GBP 0.9050
EUR/USD 1.4810
GBP/USD 1.6360
USD/CAD 1.0540
USD/CHF 1.0200
USD/JPY 89.00
USD/NOK 5.6300
Gold 1157
Silver 18.10
Oil 76.50
Dax 5780
Dow Jones 10400


Account Summary

Starting date: 03-Nov-09
Starting Balance: $5,000

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/account_081209.png
  • #72
  • Dec 8, 2009 9:18am Dec 8, 2009 9:18am
Tough few days for longs.... but I remain confident that we will be rewarded. Only 11 days since the last swing high. Usually takes 20-25 days to make new swing high. I'm not blinking until below 4625. I was able to scalp and unload some longs between 4780 and 4880. Have reset another long at 4750, look to add at 4680 and 4630. Good luck in your trades, Xaron. I think we will get a chance to cash in before Christmas!
  • #73
  • Dec 8, 2009 9:29am Dec 8, 2009 9:29am
I agree, FX-Petra, at least I'm in the very comfortable situation that losses doesn't hurt so much because my account gained heavily in November.

Anyway I already closed some longs and added new ones lower.
  • #74
  • Dec 8, 2009 12:58pm Dec 8, 2009 12:58pm
This is a great journal Xaron. Though your way of trading does not quite fit my personality, it is refreshing to see someone making money while posting account statements. I am enjoying watching your progress. Thanks!
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #75
  • Dec 8, 2009 4:06pm Dec 8, 2009 4:06pm
Have to admit this is the first time I've seen an accurate journal. Atleast one that is easy to read and follow. Doing well SIR! Posting to subscribe.
  • #76
  • Dec 9, 2009 12:55am Dec 9, 2009 12:55am
Thanks guys, very kind of you!

Man what a ride... Support of 1.4760 has been broken, next target would be 1.4625. I don't see real reasons behind this than simple profit taking. I still see no sentiment change.

If you want to make money you must buy when there is blood on the street, and I'd like to add: even if it's your own.
  • #77
  • Dec 10, 2009 4:19am Dec 10, 2009 4:19am
Good morning!

Review

Uhhh... quite hard days for Dollar bears like I am. There was this news that Greece got a rating downgrade from Fitch. Pff... Come on. What about US? At least this weighted a bit on the Euro and I had to close some longs to keep control over my account. As usual this was a total overreaction, at least that's the way I see it.


Analysis

Buy! Buy! Buy! For me Aussie, Euro, Gold and Oil are strong buys now. I still believe we will see 1.52 in the Euro this year. There is just no change in the USD fundamental outlook. 1.47 and 1.4625 give a good technical support for now and that move down is seen as a great dip buying.


Plan

Wait for higher levels to load off my positions.


Open trades

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...ons_101209.png


Prices

AUD/USD 0.9170
EUR/GBP 0.9040
EUR/USD 1.4730
GBP/USD 1.6360
USD/CAD 1.0540
USD/CHF 1.0260
USD/JPY 88.40
USD/NOK 5.7300
Gold 1127
Silver 17.40
Oil 72.50
Dax 5680
Dow Jones 10350


Account Summary

Starting date: 03-Nov-09
Starting Balance: $5,000

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/account_101209.png
  • #78
  • Dec 10, 2009 6:26am Dec 10, 2009 6:26am
Open trades

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...ons_101209.png


http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/account_101209.png[/quote]

Hi Xaron, your results are qute impressive, but dont you think you are "a bit" overleveraged at the moment? Your current position value is 259895, which is almost a 40:1 leverage, especially considering the fact that all the pairs you trade have usd in them and all of them you short USD. So its like having one huge position and no stop loss. I share your view on the direction of USD but if some unexpected news come out again, your account can be very badly damaged, dont you think?

In any case, thanks for posting your results, they are very encouraging
  • #79
  • Dec 10, 2009 6:31am Dec 10, 2009 6:31am
You are completely right and I wouldn't let those positions open without a SL over night. For now I monitor them closely and already closed Aussie and Loonie (but reentered both again).
  • #80
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:37am Dec 11, 2009 1:37am
Nothing changed from yesterday, we are in range mode but I see further stabilization and the commodity currencies go up already together with gold again. Will see if I can cash in at higher levels.

You might notice my incredible leverage but if it goes down, my stops are in place and will bring down the exposure immediately.

Open trades

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/...ons_111209.png


Account Summary

Starting date: 03-Nov-09
Starting Balance: $5,000

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2009/aud/account_111209.png
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