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Mister ED's 4 hour Heikin Ashi system

  • #1,281
  • Dec 1, 2009 9:24am Dec 1, 2009 9:24am
It had been a wild ride for me. I went on a +2000 pips and -2000 pips ride since Sunday 6pm. Now, I'm back to flat from last Friday's close. I'm testing the 30 minutes bar right now. Let's see how that goes.
  • #1,282
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:11am Dec 2, 2009 6:11am
Quoting LongBar
Hi 7bit,

Welcome to the thread! Good questions you have - I'd love to get answers as well believe me

I think the closest thing would be to perform backtests on the same broker Mr Ed uses, ie FXDD and with his optimizations (days & bars per pair). I would suggest to run every tick (not only on control points) and ensure modelling quality of 90% to have some level of confidence in the results.

LB
Hi guys,
Ok, well I took Longbar's advise & backtested six pairs in Mr.Ed's broker, FXDD, using his optimizations, days & specific bars. If you want to see the times currently recommended for trading they are on the other thread.

So, firstly I opened a demo account with FXDD & downloaded the historical data & ran Mr.Ed's settings & optimizations for six pairs for 2009. This also includes his choice of whether to come out at TP1 or use a two-part trade. This information can also be found on the other thread. These were the results from Jan 1, 2009 to present:

EURGBP 10,000 to 11,050.97= 10.5% increase
GBPJPY 10,000 to 10,895.64= 8.9% increase* (this test cut short)
GBPUSD 10,000 to 9,720.53= 2.8% decrease
NZDUSD 10,000 to 7,243.89= 27.56% decrease
USDCAD 10,000 to 10,482.68= 4.8% increase
USDJPY 10,000 to 14,916.99= 49% increase

Now, I just realised after reading another forum that the historical data that is downloaded in MT4 actually ISN'T from that specific broker, but actually from Metaquotes. So, in order to make this test more accurate I opened a new FXDD account, located specific FXDD data, downloaded & imported into the account. I ran the tests again.

EURGBP 10,000 to 13,455.92= 34.6% increase
GBPJPY 10,000 to 9,976.32= 0.25% decrease
GBPUSD 10,000 to 9,346.70= 6.5% decrease
NZDUSD 10,000 to 9,264.10= 7.4% decrease
USDCAD 10,000 to 11,373.24=13.73% increase
USDJPY 10,000 to 19,526.53= 95.26% increase

Now, the results didn't look overly convincing so I'm not sure yet. USDJPY looked pretty good so I then tested over 3 years but ended short as it appeared only to be loosing on previous years.

I've attached the file results below. Firstly those in FXDD using Metaquotes data. Secondly, FXDD using FXDD imported data. Also I've made a compilation of Mr.Eds system with trading times & info on use of EA if it is helpful.

Now before anyone starts harping on about modeling quality, yes, only a few got 90% & the rest bad modeling. Unfortunately the data is what it is. It is as I've already said Metaquotes data & FXDD imported data. If you have a problem with the modelling quality complain to them, not me. Besides, in a scalping system with very small take profits, the modeling quality would have a big effect. On a 4hr system with a fairly large take profit & stop loss, I don't think the modeling quality would hugely affect the results.

Anyway, you can check the settings I've used for yourselves & please tell me where I've gone wrong in the settings, if that is the case.

Adios,
Barry
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 2009 FXDD but Metaquotes data.zip   117 KB | 448 downloads
File Type: zip 2009 FXDD with FXDD data.zip   126 KB | 470 downloads
File Type: doc Mister ED's 4 hour system.doc   183 KB | 916 downloads
  • #1,283
  • Dec 2, 2009 7:45am Dec 2, 2009 7:45am
Very interesting findings, Barry. Thanks for all your hard work.
  • #1,284
  • Dec 2, 2009 8:36am Dec 2, 2009 8:36am
I optimized the ea setting for every curency for year 2009. I used alpari uk platform and Metaquotes data. i didnt use mr ED's optimization.

Defoult settings were:
2 part trade
1000€
0.1 fixed lot
Ravi filter on
RaviFX shift=1

after 2009 optimization i tested every set file if it can survive 2007 and 2008

now i have set files for every pair that can survive (or be profitable) in 2008 and are very profitable in 2009 (from 300 to 800 %)

I am testing everything on alpari uk demo for a month now and it looks very promissing.For now i am 80% in profit with another 10% open positive trades.

One thing i noticed demotesting. Second part of the trade often closes in smaller profit then the first part.
Longbar could you code a little improvement for the EA so that when it closes the firs part it uses some kind of trailing profit for the second part (so if the trend reverses it closes the second part with the same or biger profit then the first part)

Boki
  • #1,285
  • Dec 3, 2009 3:08am Dec 3, 2009 3:08am
Quoting wrenski
Very interesting findings, Barry. Thanks for all your hard work.
Cheers! Thanks also again to everyone's involvement in this thread.

Quoting boki
I optimized the ea setting for every curency for year 2009. I used alpari uk platform and Metaquotes data. i didnt use mr ED's optimization.

Defoult settings were:
2 part trade
1000€
0.1 fixed lot
Ravi filter on
RaviFX shift=1

after 2009 optimization i tested every set file if it can survive 2007 and 2008

now i have set files for every pair that can survive (or be profitable) in 2008 and are very profitable in 2009 (from 300 to 800 %)

I am testing everything on alpari uk demo for a month now and it looks very promissing.For now i am 80% in...
Boki, are you saying you used default settings but the only ones you changed are the ones mentioned in your above post? Is it possiblke to upload just one of your strategy tester reports.

Thanks mate,
Barry
  • #1,286
  • Dec 3, 2009 11:37am Dec 3, 2009 11:37am
Hi Longbar,

Thanks again for your work on this EA. Could you check something? I've been doing some more testing on the most recent 1.6.2 checking the various parameters. I think the ATRMinimumTriggerPips parameter could be useful for avoiding flat periods, but from my tests in strategy tester it doesn't appear to be working. I was testing on EURGBP with 12, then 15 (the ATR on this currency is very low) & noticed the trades were exactly the same. So I changed the setting to 50 so it should not take any trades but it started to take the same trades as before.

So unless I am doing something wrong this parameter doesn't seem to be functioning. Maybe if you have time you could look at this...

Cheers,
Barry

P.S. Whereabouts in Ireland are you from?
  • #1,287
  • Dec 5, 2009 6:38am Dec 5, 2009 6:38am
Sorry, made a mistake in my last post. When I was looking at my chart, not the strategy tester, I had the wrong time frame open, hence the low ATR values. I'll check again
  • #1,288
  • Dec 9, 2009 7:38pm Dec 9, 2009 7:38pm
Quoting xiaojian
It had been a wild ride for me. I went on a +2000 pips and -2000 pips ride since Sunday 6pm. Now, I'm back to flat from last Friday's close. I'm testing the 30 minutes bar right now. Let's see how that goes.

How are the M30 bars working out?
  • #1,289
  • Dec 10, 2009 4:12am Dec 10, 2009 4:12am
Quoting Barry777
Hi guys,
Ok, well I took Longbar's advise & backtested six pairs in Mr.Ed's broker, FXDD, using his optimizations, days & specific bars. If you want to see the times currently recommended for trading they are on the other thread.

So, firstly I opened a demo account with FXDD & downloaded the historical data & ran Mr.Ed's settings & optimizations for six pairs for 2009. This also includes his choice of whether to come out at TP1 or use a two-part trade. This information can also be found on the other thread. These were the results from Jan 1,...
I had the EA vr. 1.6.2 optomised for the currency pairs for trading on FXdd where my account is. Then I had an email from them informing me of the leverage reduction so I opened an account with Alpari (UK) who offer 500:1. When I back tested the EAs there I got wildly different results, so I've optomised them for Alpari. Having noticed that FXdd get their data from Metaquotes and Alpari don't I phoned the tech help this morning to find out more. The woman told me that Alpari began trading in 2006 and have their data in the historical files but that it might be patched in places with MQ data up until 2007. She was extremely vague on the phone and I'm not convinced that even she knew what she was talking about. So for Alpari I'm only backtesting and optomising to 2008. I suppose the only real way to test is to run it in real time forward.

Rgds,
McKevvy
  • #1,290
  • Dec 10, 2009 7:24am Dec 10, 2009 7:24am
Quoting McKevvy
I had the EA vr. 1.6.2 optomised for the currency pairs for trading on FXdd where my account is. Then I had an email from them informing me of the leverage reduction so I opened an account with Alpari (UK) who offer 500:1. When I back tested the EAs there I got wildly different results, so I've optomised them for Alpari. Having noticed that FXdd get their data from Metaquotes and Alpari don't I phoned the tech help this morning to find out more. The woman told me that Alpari began trading in 2006 and have their data in the historical files but that...
Hi McKevvy

There are definifintely differences between brokers and the results that you can get. Therefore I strongly agree that you get data from a broker that you are happy with and backtest but also forward test the system for a significant time before drawing any conclusions.

With this type of system there can be significant draw downs, but that is the price you pay for a technically driven system that doesn't require any interpretation.

In the longterm things balance out, but this is not a get rich quick system that makes hundreds of pips every day. However it is robust according to my results.

All the best
Mister ED
  • #1,291
  • Dec 10, 2009 9:19am Dec 10, 2009 9:19am
I tested system on 15 mins and 30 minutes and it's not working. It generated too much false signals. I find the 4hr better for longer term and 1Hr for shorter term. I discovered using a second trend indicator like CCI(20) can verified the Heikin Ashi trend.

I just started to learn the MQL4 language and realized MQL5 is coming out next year. Therefore, I'm going straight to MQL5 from here. I want to add CCI into the system. I manually checked the charts and found it does reduce many false signals generated by Heikin Ashi; even on 4 hour charts.

"Market trends only 20% of the time, but it generates 80% of the profit."
  • #1,292
  • Dec 10, 2009 9:26am Dec 10, 2009 9:26am
I am testing the H1 this month with NO interference and discretion. I am currently down 387 pips. Not good so far!!
  • #1,293
  • Dec 10, 2009 9:34am Dec 10, 2009 9:34am
I would use 4 Hour or even Daily charts if you're a day-trader or short-term trader. I rather be a long term trader.
  • #1,294
  • Dec 10, 2009 11:16am Dec 10, 2009 11:16am
Quoting xiaojian
I would use 4 Hour or even Daily charts if you're a day-trader or short-term trader. I rather be a long term trader.
Hi Guys

My feeling is that the system doesn't work on a lower time frame but it is good that you also have confirmed this

Mister ED
  • #1,295
  • Dec 10, 2009 11:53am Dec 10, 2009 11:53am
I agree with this sentiment. HA type systems are notoriously jumpy at shorter timeframes.

The point of HA is to apply a type of smoothing that approaches SMA smoothing as periods increase. Conversely, as the periods reduce, the smoothing is reduced almost exponentially. This effect is only amplified by using shorter timeframes, which by nature are more sensitive to noisy price fluctuations.
  • #1,296
  • Edited 2:19pm Dec 13, 2009 11:39am | Edited 2:19pm
So I have been following this thread and was wanting to give the EA a try.

What's the difference between the ATR.mq4 and Heiken_Ashi_Smoothed.mq4 ?
These are indicators, right? Is there a good EA that takes care of this system?


Are these complete EAs with a long term approach. stop/loss, etc. ?
  • #1,297
  • Dec 13, 2009 3:53pm Dec 13, 2009 3:53pm
Barry - When you found the USDJPY was the most profitable based on your startegy testing, which version of Longbar's EA were you using? And you optimized to Mister Ed's settings?
  • #1,298
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:00am Dec 14, 2009 9:00am
In the EA, there's a parameter for Entry. What's Revered Retrace means?
  • #1,299
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:53pm Dec 15, 2009 3:53pm
Quoting xiaojian
In the EA, there's a parameter for Entry. What's Revered Retrace means?
Hi xiaojian,

I guess you refer to EntryMethod=3, Reversed standard entry.

This will take the opposit trade of the actual trigger. When BUY is triggered according to the strategy this EntryMethod will enter a SELL. On SELL trigger the EA will BUY.

Note that this method will not act on retracement triggers.

Longbar
  • #1,300
  • Dec 16, 2009 10:41am Dec 16, 2009 10:41am
thanks very much for explanation.
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