Chart indicates we broke the negative trendline. i'm out. see ya. 
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #209,781
- Dec 4, 2009 6:32pm Dec 4, 2009 6:32pm
- | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Clear Cut System Trader | 1,111 Posts
- #209,783
- Edited 10:20pm Dec 4, 2009 9:29pm | Edited 10:20pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Money never sleeps | 5,878 Posts
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
- #209,784
- Dec 4, 2009 9:36pm Dec 4, 2009 9:36pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Money never sleeps | 5,878 Posts
I see bullish activity. The chart posted earlier is similar to what i'm seeing. I held a long last week and my tp was hit. I'm holding a long this week at 148.59. tight stop
I don't know.we'll see Sunday.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=209772
Whose Chart?... which one....?
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
- #209,785
- Dec 4, 2009 11:32pm Dec 4, 2009 11:32pm
- | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Clear Cut System Trader | 1,111 Posts
- #209,786
- Edited 3:48am Dec 5, 2009 3:45am | Edited 3:48am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Technical fundamentalist | 2,202 Posts
Well, I mentioned last week (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post3267925) that I’d like to see GY play back up to the 144.863/145.209 levels, but did not take the short that was contemplated… it got too close to NFP for me, and the PA just wasn’t convincing me. Now we see the 149.XXX region again (confluence/distribution area as indicated by green horizontal line), and I suspect that we will see this climb more before any significant drop – we seem to have convincingly broken the UTL, and the next daily candle should open above, providing we don’t have some major gap down when the brokers reopen. Not shown is how ascending price pretty much stopped at the M-R1 level (149.100), which coincides with a weekly 20 EMA. How convenient is that!
CCI levels have just turned positive, on a daily chart, just as they did mid October when what was suspected to be intervention, sent the price shooting back up off the low 140.XXXs. History tends to repeat, and everything tells me price is going up in a similar fashion to mid October.
My next level to consider shorting at – should price rise – is the 151.163 level (Red 50% fib level); minor pink trend also hits this level (shaded area), but feel safer with shorts (albeit subject to PA and time frames for holding) placed up at the fib confluence areas 152.638 to 153.978 (shaded area). However, I am aware of year-end book balancing by the large investors, and also a confluence of longer-term MAs that has occurred over the last few days. For example, this week has seen a cross and compression of a W20 EMA below a W50 SMA, and a price rise of approximately 900 pips to meet this, taking price to sit just above these two MAs… I have not seen this cross since November 2007 (237.XXX levels), and then price fell off a cliff. We had a cross of the W20 EMA above the W50 SMA back in June of this year, which, it could be argued, maintained a somewhat level price range (yes, I’m talking a few thousand pips, which my account cannot afford…LOL), but this latest cross would suggest a continuation, at a later date, of the bigger downtrend. I find that with all these MA crosses, a fight against always ensues, hence my reluctance to take any long-term shorting position at present, as I suspect a continuation of price rise until at least year end – who knows, it may stretch back up to the 161.XXX levels given the nonsense of the market. Please note, I do not trade based on MAs, but on Fib levels and PA… I use two other charts with MAs and a Guppy profile as a guide to longer term projections.
A lot could be said about historical patterns, MAs, fib levels, current economical/political situations and such like, but I feel that the price has been deliberately forced back to the confluence/distribution areas we have just experienced the last month or so, and I will mainly be looking for intra-day plays around obvious support/resistance levels for the remainder of the year. I’d hate to be down just before Santa arrives, as it would mean no whisky and mince pies for me – erm, sorry, I mean him.
Side note: I am short Cable (little punt to pass the time), with a TP in the 1.62 region, or maybe even 1.59 region. Beyond that, well, I’m looking at the 1.57 region. Thanks Malcolm14 for the VSA input, and DT for the ‘measured’ analysis.
And everyone else that I read, but that are too numerous to mention.
CCI levels have just turned positive, on a daily chart, just as they did mid October when what was suspected to be intervention, sent the price shooting back up off the low 140.XXXs. History tends to repeat, and everything tells me price is going up in a similar fashion to mid October.
My next level to consider shorting at – should price rise – is the 151.163 level (Red 50% fib level); minor pink trend also hits this level (shaded area), but feel safer with shorts (albeit subject to PA and time frames for holding) placed up at the fib confluence areas 152.638 to 153.978 (shaded area). However, I am aware of year-end book balancing by the large investors, and also a confluence of longer-term MAs that has occurred over the last few days. For example, this week has seen a cross and compression of a W20 EMA below a W50 SMA, and a price rise of approximately 900 pips to meet this, taking price to sit just above these two MAs… I have not seen this cross since November 2007 (237.XXX levels), and then price fell off a cliff. We had a cross of the W20 EMA above the W50 SMA back in June of this year, which, it could be argued, maintained a somewhat level price range (yes, I’m talking a few thousand pips, which my account cannot afford…LOL), but this latest cross would suggest a continuation, at a later date, of the bigger downtrend. I find that with all these MA crosses, a fight against always ensues, hence my reluctance to take any long-term shorting position at present, as I suspect a continuation of price rise until at least year end – who knows, it may stretch back up to the 161.XXX levels given the nonsense of the market. Please note, I do not trade based on MAs, but on Fib levels and PA… I use two other charts with MAs and a Guppy profile as a guide to longer term projections.
A lot could be said about historical patterns, MAs, fib levels, current economical/political situations and such like, but I feel that the price has been deliberately forced back to the confluence/distribution areas we have just experienced the last month or so, and I will mainly be looking for intra-day plays around obvious support/resistance levels for the remainder of the year. I’d hate to be down just before Santa arrives, as it would mean no whisky and mince pies for me – erm, sorry, I mean him.
Side note: I am short Cable (little punt to pass the time), with a TP in the 1.62 region, or maybe even 1.59 region. Beyond that, well, I’m looking at the 1.57 region. Thanks Malcolm14 for the VSA input, and DT for the ‘measured’ analysis.
And everyone else that I read, but that are too numerous to mention.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
- #209,787
- Dec 5, 2009 7:14am Dec 5, 2009 7:14am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2008 | 5,712 Posts
I closed my long hedged positions and waiting for the mega tsunami
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlPqL...eature=related
WIPEOUT!!
Unless Weekly closes at or below 146.38...which is on Sunday...
This thing is going to 150.50 - 151.44.. Minimum...Before any retrace...IMO..Break 153...say hello to 157- 159..
Look at your Daily...you will see whats going on there..
Depends on your style of trading...swing.... intraday...day trade...Market will give you one more chance to get out..or decide after the break of 146.80--50.
the only one...
bad trade for me, but loss is a part of forex
- #209,790
- Dec 5, 2009 11:32am Dec 5, 2009 11:32am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 7,908 Posts
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
- #209,792
- Edited 11:58am Dec 5, 2009 11:46am | Edited 11:58am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
let's look at this (extreme 
) chart showing pvp areas for the last 3 years.
149 comes up as the most intense traded area for the current year. think about that when you are planing ahead - if there is a break to the upside, then up we go. and i mean, UP.
) chart showing pvp areas for the last 3 years. 149 comes up as the most intense traded area for the current year. think about that when you are planing ahead - if there is a break to the upside, then up we go. and i mean, UP.
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #209,793
- Dec 5, 2009 11:59am Dec 5, 2009 11:59am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 7,908 Posts
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
- #209,795
- Dec 5, 2009 11:39pm Dec 5, 2009 11:39pm
- | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Clear Cut System Trader | 1,111 Posts
- #209,796
- Dec 6, 2009 1:35am Dec 6, 2009 1:35am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 7,908 Posts
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
- #209,798
- Dec 6, 2009 6:04am Dec 6, 2009 6:04am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Know Your Wave | 2,640 Posts
- #209,800
- Edited 7:15am Dec 6, 2009 6:35am | Edited 7:15am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Know Your Wave | 2,640 Posts
