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Silent Service Method

  • #6,061
  • Dec 4, 2009 3:31pm Dec 4, 2009 3:31pm
Quoting clockwork71
Well.....looks like that sharp pullback in Gold is happening. It's been a long time since NFP actually changed things. Perhaps this is the big pullback we have been waiting for?
Yes, just what I was thinking when I saw the textbook bearish pin bar from this week. I am not suggesting anyone short gold, but I will be waiting for this pull back to end so I can hop aboard. Combined with the bullish monthly pin bar in USDCAD from October, as well as the Dow reaching the end of its trendline triangle, might we have reached a point of market turnover?
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  • #6,062
  • Dec 4, 2009 5:09pm Dec 4, 2009 5:09pm
Quoting johnnyonspot
Yes, just what I was thinking when I saw the textbook bearish pin bar from this week. I am not suggesting anyone short gold, but I will be waiting for this pull back to end so I can hop aboard. Combined with the bullish monthly pin bar in USDCAD from October, as well as the Dow reaching the end of its trendline triangle, might we have reached a point of market turnover?
Very, very possible. I am not shorting gold either.....but just waiting.
  • #6,063
  • Dec 4, 2009 6:20pm Dec 4, 2009 6:20pm
sorry this may sound like a stupid question but how far back do you go for s and r. I find it sometimes hard to find decent weekly s and r to draw a zone from.

I always find a way to make it to technical dammit

we are more looking for solid s and r from the past that stands out. I have been drawing some zones on the month charts if i cant see any on the weekly. or sometimes its just easier to draw from the monthly as I find it to straining on the eyes with the weekly zoomed out. I guess it doesnt matter does it seems a monthly level wouldve been spotted on the weekly timeframe anyway?

Is this better than just drawing a zone from say a recent weekly bar high and not worrying about going to monthly to look at price flips.
I am assuming a monthly or zoomed out weekly is better to draw zones from seems its actually an important level in the past vs just a few recent weekly bar highs or lows etc?

thanks for your help

sorry the charts below arent the best example but im just trying to demonstrate what i am talking about
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  • #6,064
  • Dec 4, 2009 8:07pm Dec 4, 2009 8:07pm
Quoting supermatt
sorry this may sound like a stupid question but how far back do you go for s and r. I find it sometimes hard to find decent weekly s and r to draw a zone from.

I always find a way to make it to technical dammit

we are more looking for solid s and r from the past that stands out. I have been drawing some zones on the month charts if i cant see any on the weekly. or sometimes its just easier to draw from the monthly as I find it to straining on the eyes with the weekly zoomed out. I guess it doesnt matter does it seems a monthly level wouldve been...

Yes.....zoom it out! That makes it a lot easier. Check out this AUD chart on the monthly time frame. Also.....if you find monthly areas make more sense....then you certainly can play monthly s/r with daily candles......
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  • #6,065
  • Dec 4, 2009 9:52pm Dec 4, 2009 9:52pm
Ooops! Forgot to announce this.....

Bayport_Bob and Danku both win a book.

Please send me your address, and you should have them by Christmas. You both had good answers about my chart.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ds#post3259528

I'll do another one soon.

Chris
  • #6,066
  • Dec 4, 2009 10:04pm Dec 4, 2009 10:04pm
Ok, so I was waiting for a break out from a triangle in corn. I got it today, but in the other direction......you gotta work with the market - not against it.

It's 11 pm Friday, and Interactive Brokers chart server isn't online. I am using barchart.com charts for corn to visually show you why I am in this.

I am also attaching the trade info as well.
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  • #6,067
  • Dec 4, 2009 10:12pm Dec 4, 2009 10:12pm
I also went long USD/JP today. I think we are finally putting in that bottom that everyone was talking about. I am not shorting this pair anymore.

I am not sure why it shows up like this....(it's an ECN thing I guess....) but this shows my entry price.
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  • #6,068
  • Dec 5, 2009 7:37am Dec 5, 2009 7:37am
siemens on daily. pinbar which closed above the TL.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #6,069
  • Dec 5, 2009 9:01am Dec 5, 2009 9:01am
Quoting aserbfx
siemens on daily. pinbar which closed above the TL.

I like it, but there is only one concern. The last high was lower than the one before it. Other than that, it sets up nicely.

Chris
  • #6,070
  • Edited 10:44am Dec 5, 2009 10:27am | Edited 10:44am
Here is a stock that taught me a lesson (I think I learned it anyway) about not trying to buy the bottom. It is a nano tech company and I check in on it every other day or so. Anyway, looking at these charts it seems to be at a major pivot zone right now and potentially putting in a double bottom and has a bullish piercing pattern w/ increased volume on the weekly, as well as an inverted bullish hanging man on the monthly. I may trade it if the double bottom is confirmed. Here are the monthly, weekly and daily charts. The pivot zone is right around $36-40. Thoughts welcome.
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  • #6,071
  • Edited 11:50am Dec 5, 2009 11:29am | Edited 11:50am
Hey guys: I found a broker that I'd never heard of that has a TON of different instruments in MT4 format. The site is called "Broco Trading" and I think they must have 400 or so Stocks/Commodites/CFDs/ETFs available on their platform. I doubt anyone in the states can trade w/ them, but it seems good for charting. Anyway, i thought it might be useful:

Instead of calling it MetaTrader, they call it "BrocoTrader", but it's the exact same thing (it's MT4...)

http://www.brocompany.com/
  • #6,072
  • Dec 5, 2009 11:47am Dec 5, 2009 11:47am
Quoting johnnyonspot
Here is a stock that taught me a lesson (I think I learned it anyway) about not trying to buy the bottom....
The monthly makes me a little leery......I would certainly wait until the double bottom is confirmed. If we break above the inverted pin on the monthly, that would just be even more confirmation.

Chris
  • #6,073
  • Dec 5, 2009 12:25pm Dec 5, 2009 12:25pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Hey guys: I found a broker that I'd never heard of that has a TON of different instruments in MT4 format. The site is called "Broco Trading" and I think they must have 400 or so Stocks/Commodites/CFDs/ETFs available on their platform. I doubt anyone in the states can trade w/ them, but it seems good for charting. Anyway, i thought it might be useful:

Instead of calling it MetaTrader, they call it "BrocoTrader", but it's the exact same thing (it's MT4...)

http://www.brocompany.com/

This would be a deal killer for me...

"About us

Broco is one of the most prominent brokerage companies in Russia operating in the field of Internet trading."
  • #6,074
  • Dec 5, 2009 2:20pm Dec 5, 2009 2:20pm
I suspect Asia is going to be wild on Sunday night. Since gold closed near the low of the day, and that day being up to a $70 drop, I think there will be some continuation of the move. Think about it: Can you imagine waking up on Saturday morning in Tokyo to see what happened to your position? I would be thinking of nothing else over the weekend.

This is going to be true with the AUD/USD, the EUR/USD, and just about anything else measured in USD. It will make for an interesting night to say the least. Friday's move was pretty violent. It's not so much that Australia or Europe is any worse than before, just that the Dollar is priced for the decline of Western civilization.

I am short of Corn, and long USD/JPY at the moment. When you Aussies wake up Monday morning, I would love to see a gap up on the USD/JPY. If I see that, it gives me a place to set stops, and let this thing run for ages......if not, well I have to wait for that chance. (I do think it's coming though.)

By extension....if we get dollar favorable gaps - Corn should fall again.

Only time will tell. Fed rate futures are now pricing the first rate hike in 2010, maybe the June area. Japan on the other hand is still talking more stimulus. We may be seeing the start of the Yen carry trade coming back. That's more of a macro view though.......

Chris
  • #6,075
  • Dec 5, 2009 2:26pm Dec 5, 2009 2:26pm
We've talked a lot about gold, but don't forget about the Gold Miners... Not saying I'm anxious to go out and short them, but you gotta be open to the possibility:

http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...ekly-12509.png

MGLN - Magellan Health Services Inc. - Chart is pretty self explanatory with what i'm thinking.

http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...509-Weekly.png

PCAR - PACCAR - Not as compelling, but I do like the fact that it couldn't break above $40...

http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...ekly-12509.png

Here's an interesting one...SWHC - Smith & Wesson. I don't like to short stocks below $10, but this one looks kind of interesting if it can break below that support line there (I marked it around $4.30 - For some reason the cart got cut off a bit)...

http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...kly-120509.png

And I don't want to totally bearish... Here's one that maybe is worth a shot from the long side. Also a conservative play w/ a decent dividend:

PM - Philip Morris International
http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...ekly-12509.png

I also have a few daily pins from Friday and a few other weekly pins on my radar.
  • #6,076
  • Dec 5, 2009 3:05pm Dec 5, 2009 3:05pm
not so much that Australia or Europe is any worse than before, just that the Dollar is priced for the decline of Western civilization.

hi Chris
could you elaborate more about this sentence .
regards
  • #6,077
  • Dec 5, 2009 3:15pm Dec 5, 2009 3:15pm
Quote
not so much that Australia or Europe is any worse than before, just that the Dollar is priced for the decline of Western civilization.

LOL. Got a good chuckle out of me there.

The dollar is priced so low it's now the international standard for limbo competitions.

The dollar is so weak that nuclear armageddon would be considered dollar bullish.
  • #6,078
  • Dec 5, 2009 3:38pm Dec 5, 2009 3:38pm
Here's a look at the DXY (Dollar Index) over the last 3yrs with weekly data:

http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...ollarIndex.png

Decline of western civilization you say? Why, this civiliazation is showing unprecedented progress... TV Shows like "Tool Academy" and "I Didn't Know I was Pregnant"... Magazines like "Us Weekly" and "InTouch".... Movies like "Old Dogs".... Team press coverage of the White House party crashers and Tiger Woods' mistress? No no, this country's doing just fine!

Sorry for the rant... Back to the topic: Yes, the US dollar has been much maligned and when your barber or Mother-in-law starts talking to you about how bad the dollar is and how we should all buy gold, that's when you know this move might be getting a little ahead of itself. Just my 2c...
  • #6,079
  • Dec 5, 2009 4:19pm Dec 5, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting samer960
not so much that Australia or Europe is any worse than before, just that the Dollar is priced for the decline of Western civilization.

hi Chris
could you elaborate more about this sentence .
regards
I was exaggerating a bit...sorry, I forget that not every one is a native English speaker.

What I meant to say was, that it was priced so low that it seems people are expecting the USA to suddenly collapse. I don't think that's coming for a very, very, long time. I live here, and trust me - I know.

I think certain things have changed, yes.....and for the better, but there will still be a USD in 10 years - no matter what the charts look like!

Chris
  • #6,080
  • Dec 5, 2009 4:20pm Dec 5, 2009 4:20pm
Quoting InfinitySL

Sorry for the rant... Back to the topic: Yes, the US dollar has been much maligned and when your barber or Mother-in-law starts talking to you about how bad the dollar is and how we should all buy gold, that's when you know this move might be getting a little ahead of itself. Just my 2c...

Yep.....I think we are going to see a continued correction in gold. (I get to buy it cheap someday.) I also expect the same in the USD, and the JPY has got to lose some value, or Japan is in even more trouble.

Chris
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