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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #11,381
  • Dec 2, 2009 4:06am Dec 2, 2009 4:06am
shahzadhyder, I guess you are referring to my online profile where it states my preferred strategy "martingale". Did not expect anybody to take it seriously. I do use some form of progressive or anti progressive strategy, depends on my mood or market risk profile. Other than that all I can say is as a community, FF and this thread has helped me much and I am enjoying the money, after being mind f***ed by the market for 3 yrs.

Apart from myself, unfortunately what is being presented in this thread is not straight forward with step by step instructions. To make things worst, the author for his own reasons presented much info in "parables" requiring the reader to decipher it themselves. This has created a lot of misunderstanding.

The sad thing is how this thread had developed recently. The original students have rarely come forward to clear misconceptions. Why ? My guess is that the each have their own version of what is being taught and for reasons good or bad, kept to themselves. But of course they are not obligated to do so.

Like it or not, this thread is on life support, it past its prime time. For me its a good sign, long lively threads are usually commercial platforms trying to sell something.

This has been repeated to death. The juice is in the first 200 pages. Folks looking for systems need not apply. And for those who still thinks this thread is about bashing technical analysis, I strongly suggest you read this thread, and you will appreciated TA and put it to more profitable use.
  • #11,382
  • Dec 2, 2009 4:38am Dec 2, 2009 4:38am
Happy trading day to everyone. No trades this morning since London open. Seems to be much congestion now, but am watching the GBP/$ for possible entry soon. Only a few announcements later, too. Have to see how this develops today, perhaps a day to do home projects. Everyone take a deep breath, stay focused, but move around from time to time so as not to be confused with someone on life support -- LOL. Trade well everyone.
  • #11,383
  • Edited 9:30am Dec 2, 2009 4:48am | Edited 9:30am
theres a thin line between averaging losers and rescuing, it looks and sounds similar ,
the line is the 1000+ hours screen time ...
with the experience , u ll know instantly which are losers and which are not,

off course with a defensive mm and sound risk management it is possible to rescue every positions ,even one which is a loser... but most retail traders might not have the resources for it (baby sitting 24hrs or 3 layers of traders to control risk)

adjusting the MO to the highly leveraged retail trading is ur job , each person has a different risk appetite and different personality ...
as he has said , he gives the picture , now go n color it ...
good trade
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,384
  • Dec 2, 2009 4:59am Dec 2, 2009 4:59am
Quoting maheswara
theres a thin line between averaging losers and rescuing, it looks and sounds similar ,
the line is the 1000+ hours screen time ...
if u ve the experience , u ll know instantly which are losers and which are not,

off course with a defensive mm and sound risk management it is possible to rescue every positions... but most retail traders might not have the resources for it (baby sitting 24hrs or 3 layers of traders to control risk)

adjusting the MO to the highly leveraged retail traders is ur job , each has a different risk appetite , different...
Well said...
watchout with
all the upcoming figures this week.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #11,385
  • Dec 2, 2009 9:16am Dec 2, 2009 9:16am
A sobering read........

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...den-94908.aspx
  • #11,386
  • Dec 2, 2009 12:47pm Dec 2, 2009 12:47pm
Quoting fti
Hi Pips_Cruiser,

You are wise. there within "IF", are great lessons about life and living.
Unfortunately, these can only be recognised when one comes into its fold. ( level)

Have it as reference, is the already the guilding light for the journey.
I am glad that you are in it.

regards

I do howerver have a version , the fti version of desiderata, with most of the this stuff in there.
I'll give it to you ppl , at the end, God willing.

Hi All ,currently reading the thread second time but could not find Fti version of desiderata. Can someone please guide me?
Thx
Naveen
  • #11,387
  • Dec 2, 2009 12:52pm Dec 2, 2009 12:52pm
OK, I am done for the day. It took 11 trades to get to my daily objective, grabbing 8-14 pips per trade. Hard way to make a living. Hey auxesis, I started reading the article and got depressed. Good trading everyone. See you at the next London open.
  • #11,388
  • Dec 2, 2009 12:55pm Dec 2, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting auxesis
A sobering read........

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...den-94908.aspx
Thanx for sharing, Auxesis.
Yes that read was sobering, ideed!
  • #11,389
  • Edited 1:59pm Dec 2, 2009 1:35pm | Edited 1:59pm
Quoting NAVEEVIa
Hi All ,currently reading the thread second time but could not find Fti version of desiderata. Can someone please guide me?
Thx
Naveen
hello naveen, i believe the text is always the same.... this is not the version of fti but it's all about the wonderfull messege.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/9428847/Desiderata

greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #11,390
  • Dec 2, 2009 9:49pm Dec 2, 2009 9:49pm
Hi Friends,

have an interesting read to give you a short summary about the recent market sentiment ....

http://www.reuters.com/article/globa...5AT03U20091203

CU,
MaMood
  • #11,391
  • Dec 3, 2009 4:05pm Dec 3, 2009 4:05pm
taking some off the table, eyes open e/u 5034 area.
  • #11,392
  • Dec 3, 2009 4:24pm Dec 3, 2009 4:24pm
[quote=auxesis;3276295]A sobering read........

[url]

incredible. And obvious. Thanks for this... Time to buy a cabin in the woods and arm up. Hah.
  • #11,393
  • Dec 3, 2009 8:06pm Dec 3, 2009 8:06pm
Quoting auxesis
A sobering read........

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...den-94908.aspx
Ole cow....I'd better buy my house pretty soon
before the dollar goes to hell.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #11,394
  • Edited 10:30pm Dec 3, 2009 9:21pm | Edited 10:30pm
Quoting luSan
Ole cow....I'd better buy my house pretty soon
before the dollar goes to hell.
Buy silver or gold wait for inflation, and for the dollar to get there , cash in your metal for a bigger bang for your buck.
Right now if you grab 2 or 3 dimes out of that roll of 1964 dimes you can buy a gallon of gas.
I say wait for inflation make your profit and buy 2 cabins, that 2nd one is for when your in the dog house.

checkout barter4silver.com, my buddy and I are just about to launch a national directory for the business's wanting to except silver and gold for payment (hopefully we can make it a success as their is no national directory).
Check out the videos under articles and you also might appreciate the book by mike maloney titled guide to investing in gold and silver.
  • #11,395
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:38am Dec 4, 2009 1:38am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
shahzadhyder, I guess you are referring to my online profile where it states my preferred strategy "martingale". Did not expect anybody to take it seriously. I do use some form of progressive or anti progressive strategy, depends on my mood or market risk profile. Other than that all I can say is as a community, FF and this thread has helped me much and I am enjoying the money, after being mind f***ed by the market for 3 yrs.

Apart from myself, unfortunately what is being presented in this thread is not straight forward with step by step instructions....
I do understand that your point of view is very interesting as you lost almost 3 years in the trade and now finally when you are using this martingale system you find yourself in profitable position. I am a very good player of roulette and mini bakarat as well and many times i win usung the
same martingale system but unfortunately sometimes what you do when you lose constantly 9 times or 10 times then you are going to lose all what you have gained. If you do not believe then go to any Casino and check yourself that sometimes all black are appearing in a row like even 13 times or 14 times and by this time you lose all your money because the process is doubling. like a bet of 5 will be 10 and then 20 then 40 then 80 then 160 then 320 and until it reach like 4000 to 8000 dollars as well. so just to win only 5 dollars you risk 8000 dollars thats not wise. you can win only some times but just one time this sort of lost will totaly break your financial position. Once I started a practice account with 50,000.- dollars and i was doing the forex trade like the same style and and i took this 50,000.- dollars account to 110,000 dollars in just one month but when i did the same thing in live account then i lost all my money. After that i decided to learn hard the japense candels and the techincal and the fundamental reactions on the currencies. Truthfully I find technical analysis more beneficial then even trading on fundamental news as sometimes the broker charges you too much as a slippage that instead of ganining you lose and market is too fast i think only very very trained dealers can do that not me.Also market moves 95 percent on its natural harmonic wave system and 5 percent move on fundamental news. I usually stop trading when i see there is fundamental annoucement going on and even then japense candels can lead you the direction as the formation of these candels is the direct result of what the big boys are doing in the whole world. If you check my thread on GBP/USD and EUR/USD you will find me 80 percent correct and do it very cautiosly and do not trade without placing stop loss order. However martingale system can be useful in case of trading Gold or Silver as if you see the History these two metals always have one direction which is upward but you should have lot of money in your account in order to sustain some losses and then wait for the market to go up again.
I hope this will illustrate the position and as this is very interesting subject I will requst other members to join this topic and say something on this.
  • #11,396
  • Dec 4, 2009 2:11am Dec 4, 2009 2:11am
Quoting shahzadhyder
I do understand that your point of view is very interesting as you lost almost 3 years in the trade and now finally when you are using this martingale system you find yourself in profitable position. I am a very good player of roulette and mini bakarat as well and many times i win usung the
u r in the wrong room,
wat u r saying has no relevancy to the thread ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,397
  • Edited 5:36am Dec 4, 2009 5:23am | Edited 5:36am
Quoting shahzadhyder
I do understand that your point of view is very interesting as you lost almost 3 years in the trade and now finally when you are using this martingale system you find yourself in profitable position. I am a very good player of roulette and mini bakarat as well and many times i win usung the
same martingale system but unfortunately sometimes what you do when you lose constantly 9 times or 10 times then you are going to lose all what you have gained. If you do not believe then go to any Casino and check yourself that sometimes all black are appearing...
Hi Shah,

I read this thread up to 200 pages almost 3 times(some parts 4-5times) there are some hiding value in there.

Like Maheswara said
theres a thin line between averaging losers and rescuing, it looks and sounds similar ,
the line is the 1000+ hours screen time ...
with the experience , u ll know instantly which are losers and which are not,

So please work hard to be one in 5% whom successed & 95% are the losser. Few yrs back I've never heard of Price Action I only knew TA so I thought TA only the way to trade but I've never made it until 10 mths ago I heard of PA then I started to do research of PA.
Luckily I found this thread few mths ago then I read,read & read then practiced & practice now I'm hardly making a loss(still learning curve). Now I concentrate in attack mode after this I'll go for live.

IN Casino you r betting with machines or cards no charts to feel the emotion of all traders. Still if you know youself & your enemy you will win(AOW) in casino. I met someone - his occupation is glamber going to casino every day and most of the day he makes $200+ then he finish of that day (but he also has some bad day) but all total he is making a living by go to casino.

So please do work hard it's not easy. Please read up to 200pages(at least 2 times) & practice later on. if you cant do this then this thread is not for you there are so many threads in FF which some of them might suit you( even in ppl in this thread some of them trade 1min tf some 5mins some even 30sec so different ppl different mind set).

By the way I'ld like to thank fti & all the seniors in this thread - guiding me until today. Thank you I'm almost getting there & very soon.

 Best Regards,
  • #11,398
  • Dec 4, 2009 6:17am Dec 4, 2009 6:17am
Have I mentioned lately how much I love the $/CAD?
  • #11,399
  • Dec 4, 2009 9:21am Dec 4, 2009 9:21am
Hi all,

recent loss recovered... had some long position on UJ from 85.75 closed at sweet 89.70.....


Dont know it is good to play with BOJ some time.......


V
  • #11,400
  • Dec 4, 2009 9:26am Dec 4, 2009 9:26am
shahzadhyder, think you need to define risk first ? Stop this martingale bs. Thanks but no thanks for your lengthy post. I stopped wasting my time when you wrote this " I am a very good player of roulette and mini bakarat".
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