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Silent Service Method

  • #6,001
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:00pm Dec 1, 2009 8:00pm
Thank you Low and Chris for quick reply. FreeStockCharts.com site is awesome !!.

Hi Chris,

Regarding the pin bar candlestick pattern. You mentioned it does not matter even if it does not look like a pin bar. Can you please help me understand how to spot reversal ( other than Pin bar and engulfing bearish bar) when it happens closer to S+R zones? Should I go to one timeframe higher/lower to see familiar pattern ( something that looks like Pin) ?

I do what you have suggested once for newbies. I draw S+R lines/trend line on weekly chart and use daily to spot these candlestick patterns closer to these zones.
For newbies, can you suggest list of these forex pairs I should start with for paper trading ( the ones those repsect s/r zones better than others - I am guessing different pairs respect these zones to different extent )?

appreciate your advice.

Best regards
  • #6,002
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:49pm Dec 1, 2009 8:49pm
Quoting Imphilomath
Thank you Low and Chris for quick reply. FreeStockCharts.com site is awesome !!.

Hi Chris,

Regarding the pin bar candlestick pattern. You mentioned it does not matter even if it does not look like a pin bar. Can you please help me understand how to spot reversal ( other than Pin bar and engulfing bearish bar) when it happens closer to S+R zones? Should I go to one timeframe higher/lower to see familiar pattern ( something that looks like Pin) ?
What I meant was it might not look like a pin on my feed, because there is a 2 hour difference. You can only trade what you see.....if there is a pin on your feed, then by all means....trade it.

Quote
I do what you have suggested once for newbies. I draw S+R lines/trend line on weekly chart and use daily to spot these candlestick patterns closer to these zones.
For newbies, can you suggest list of these forex pairs I should start with for paper trading ( the ones those repsect s/r zones better than others - I am guessing different pairs respect these zones to different extent )?

appreciate your advice.

Best regards

I have found that the pair isn't as important. But there are some that you will find need larger stops than others. AUD/NZD and GBP/JPY are two good examples. As long as you are only risking 1% (or whatever your tolerance is) it really doesn't matter if it is 500 pips, or 100......it's still 1%.

I know some people tell you to start out with "The majors" only at first, but to be honest - there really isn't a difference. In fact, if you want to get good at this quickly - look at several different markets.

I would look at weekly S/R zones on stocks as well....maybe all the Dow 30 ones for starters, and paper trade the daily charts. It will help you.

Also, look into daily charts, based on weekly S/R lines on futures contracts. At this point - you want to find as many things to practice on as possible....don't worry about what you are trading, but how you are trading. That's what is important.

The Aussie stock trade I am in at the moment is a perfect example. I think it's APQ or AQP.....can't remember which. (I posted it a few posts ago.) I had never heard of this company until I stumbled across the chart. I liked the set up and only after that discovered it was a Platinum company. (I assume they mine it?) But that's that point- the chart told me to buy.....I don't really worry as to why.It just happened to make sense that it was a precious metal......

Chris
  • #6,003
  • Dec 1, 2009 11:33pm Dec 1, 2009 11:33pm
Thank you Chris. Appreciate your feedback. I plan to go through every forex chart I can and practice reading PA.

I had heard about AQP but never traded ( I am based in Sydney). Looks like you have access to all the instruments globally :-). Good luck with the trade, I see it is already moving up :-)

Thanks again !!
  • #6,004
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:12am Dec 2, 2009 6:12am
Here's a little update on the trades im currently in (not including that I have a small 10% of original size position still long EURCHF)

AUDUSD
USDCAD
EURAUD
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.png Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cad.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.png Size: 72 KB
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #6,005
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:20am Dec 2, 2009 6:20am
Thanks Clock and WGM,

These charts really are helping to cement in the knowledge that I have learned from this thread. I have read a lot and quite widely, and it seems to come down to how you use what you know... not how much you know... and what to forget...

Thanks again

Loooit
Ask me again when I know what I'm talking about.
  • #6,006
  • Dec 2, 2009 8:19am Dec 2, 2009 8:19am
Quoting Loooit
Thanks Clock and WGM,

These charts really are helping to cement in the knowledge that I have learned from this thread. I have read a lot and quite widely, and it seems to come down to how you use what you know... not how much you know... and what to forget...

Thanks again

Loooit
Very well put.
  • #6,007
  • Dec 2, 2009 9:56am Dec 2, 2009 9:56am
Hey whitegoodman....nice trades, got stopped out on EURAUD also last week but managed to pick something off USDCAD.....currently still long GBPCHF but i do not like the way it is behaving......i will wait for tonight's close to make a decision on whether to contine holding.............please keep them coming....................also Chris............freestockcharts.com ROCKS................do you use them for your charting then make entries with IB or what do you do?

Cheers

Quoting whitegoodman
Here's a little update on the trades im currently in (not including that I have a small 10% of original size position still long EURCHF)

AUDUSD
USDCAD
EURAUD
  • #6,008
  • Dec 2, 2009 10:15am Dec 2, 2009 10:15am
Quoting Danku
Hey whitegoodman....nice trades, got stopped out on EURAUD also last week but managed to pick something off USDCAD.....currently still long GBPCHF but i do not like the way it is behaving......i will wait for tonight's close to make a decision on whether to contine holding.............please keep them coming....................also Chris............freestockcharts.com ROCKS................do you use them for your charting then make entries with IB or what do you do?

Cheers
Yes, I use freestockcharts.com to look at charts the night before, and then pull up my IB charts for a shorter time frame. (I already know the price area I am looking for) By doing this, I can "fine tune" an entry.
  • #6,009
  • Dec 2, 2009 10:52am Dec 2, 2009 10:52am
Check out the two attached charts. I am not longer willing to buy the Kiwi Dollar, or at least until we make a clean break above those pins.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzddaily.png Size: 53 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdmonthly.png Size: 40 KB
  • #6,010
  • Dec 2, 2009 5:05pm Dec 2, 2009 5:05pm
I'm eyeing up this pin on the silver daily. My only worry is it's size (it's 73% of the 30 day average). What do you guys think?

Edit: the longer I watch the higher it's going and the less pin-like it becomes. Think I'll give this one a miss...
Attached Image
  • #6,011
  • Dec 2, 2009 5:25pm Dec 2, 2009 5:25pm
It’s all in the Order flow

Order flow is the reason we have up and down movement in any financial market. Orders are made up of buyers and sellers, some of these orders are placed at market price but others are pending orders. Without any orders being placed the market would flat line . This is basic information but is a key factor often overlooked.
You may have heard of the term “order book” where in certain markets you can see buyers and sellers placing orders at specific prices, this can give you a clue as to where the market may be pushed. I have not looked into this, because volume in the forex market is not monitored as a whole, you may be able to use tools via your broker for volume or they may have an order book. But, it does not contain volume across the whole market.
I use S & R as one of my main tools, I don’t know if you do, but may I suggest that you give it a serious look. I set up my s & r lines from the weekly chart, price honours these areas time and time again, even when you look back years. Why do I look for s & r on weekly charts, because they are so POWERFUL.
Have you ever seen price meandering around for days, then it seems to hit a certain price/area and be catapulted 200 odd pips in a very short space of time, your left scratching your head.
What has happened then ?........ price has hit a bunch of pending orders or a whole bunch of orders have gone in @ market price, as price moves a flood of traders are trying to get in at the best price they can get, the more momentum behind this the further price is pushed.
That’s it, price HIT a level where ORDERS were lying in wait, BIG ORDERS.
“Hit a level” you say, that’s correct!. Now, is this level an imaginary place, I mean………how can we see it. An “order book” could be handy, you would see those orders piling in, but we cannot rely on just our broker order book can we ? So, look at the chart for clues, did it look like price hit a brick wall, huge rejection from the area, maybe a pinbar. What price likely encountered was weekly based s & r.
Let say you have plotted your s & r levels, your scanning the daily charts and you find that price has been in correction and is about to hit a s& r level, you investigate further you have divergence and confluence. Do you think that you would be the only one seeing that, I would bet you more often than not that the SMART MONEY is there too.
Our job is to find out at what areas these big orders are being placed, it has to be crystal clear, it has to jump out at you, do you have the signal or trigger ? if you don’t your maybe guessing.
This has served me well in my journey, I hope you can pull something from it too, it may not be the best interpretation you will find, but someone asked me it and I thought I would share it.
I need to finish something i started
  • #6,012
  • Edited 5:55pm Dec 2, 2009 5:53pm | Edited 5:55pm
Quoting MattW
Edit: the longer I watch the higher it's going and the less pin-like it becomes. Think I'll give this one a miss...
Hi MattW,

its only a pinbar when it closes like a pinbar, many a time i was caught out by different bar formations, only to place the trade before the bar had closed.

I was stuck in a trade that looked nothing like it did half hour before. I had to learn the hard way.

Good luck with the bar hunting Matt

Regards

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #6,013
  • Dec 2, 2009 9:33pm Dec 2, 2009 9:33pm
Quoting MattW
I'm eyeing up this pin on the silver daily. My only worry is it's size (it's 73% of the 30 day average). What do you guys think?

Edit: the longer I watch the higher it's going and the less pin-like it becomes. Think I'll give this one a miss...

Always go with caution, when in doubt, stay out. Good decision.

Besides, to be honest - going against gold or silver right now is like playing chicken with a train!

Chris
  • #6,014
  • Dec 2, 2009 9:35pm Dec 2, 2009 9:35pm
Quoting bigwal
It’s all in the Order flow

Order flow is the reason we have up and down movement in any financial market. Orders are made up of buyers and sellers, some of these orders are placed at market price but others are pending orders. Without any orders being placed the market would flat line . This is basic information but is a key factor often overlooked.
[font=Times New Roman][size=3]You may have heard of the term “order book” where in certain markets you...
I would urge all of you to print this post out and read it occasionally. I couldn't put it any better than he did.

Great post.
  • #6,015
  • Dec 2, 2009 10:16pm Dec 2, 2009 10:16pm
Quoting MattW
I'm eyeing up this pin on the silver daily. My only worry is it's size (it's 73% of the 30 day average). What do you guys think?

Edit: the longer I watch the higher it's going and the less pin-like it becomes. Think I'll give this one a miss...

Here's something to think about too:

http://i47.tinypic.com/2hd5w91.png
  • #6,016
  • Dec 3, 2009 1:09am Dec 3, 2009 1:09am
A GREAT POST
Thank you

Quoting bigwal
It’s all in the Order flow

Order flow is the reason we have up and down movement in any financial market. Orders are made up of buyers and sellers, some of these orders are placed at market price but others are pending orders. Without any orders being placed the market would flat line . This is basic information but is a key factor often overlooked.
[font=Times New Roman][size=3]You may have heard of the term “order book” where in certain markets you...
  • #6,017
  • Dec 3, 2009 8:19am Dec 3, 2009 8:19am
Hey gents -

Just a quick word of caution about today: Starting fairly early today we get Ben Bernanke's confirmation hearings in the Senate. Who knows if anything noteworthy will get said, but they'll be grilling him on the dollar, monetary policy, bailouts and I would imagine any hint that they might shoot him down for a 2nd term could cause some volatility in the markets (stocks, bonds, currencies, etc.)

Just something to be aware of as you plan your day and of course tomorrow in non-farm payrolls Friday, so try to avoid the potholes!
  • #6,018
  • Dec 3, 2009 8:59am Dec 3, 2009 8:59am
Quoting InfinitySL
Hey gents -

Just a quick word of caution about today: Starting fairly early today we get Ben Bernanke's confirmation hearings in the Senate. Who knows if anything noteworthy will get said, but they'll be grilling him on the dollar, monetary policy, bailouts and I would imagine any hint that they might shoot him down for a 2nd term could cause some volatility in the markets (stocks, bonds, currencies, etc.)

Just something to be aware of as you plan your day and of course tomorrow in non-farm payrolls Friday, so try to avoid the potholes!

Yeah.....the next two days are not the best to be trading. Add the fact we are rapidly heading towards Christmas....and well...it makes for a challenging environment to say the least.

Chris
  • #6,019
  • Dec 3, 2009 10:11am Dec 3, 2009 10:11am
Hey guys, do you manage stocks any differently to Fx or do you just trade it as a chart?

This is Brunswick Corp (BC) US Stock Daily
Got stopped in by a pip or two but still confident this will play out...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BC Daily 3rd Dec.JPG Size: 44 KB
  • #6,020
  • Dec 3, 2009 12:33pm Dec 3, 2009 12:33pm
Quoting MattW
Hey guys, do you manage stocks any differently to Fx or do you just trade it as a chart?

This is Brunswick Corp (BC) US Stock Daily
Got stopped in by a pip or two but still confident this will play out...
A chart is a chart is a chart. It really comes down to volume. If a instrument is a little less liquid, you need to go up in time and give the stops a little more room is all.

Think of it this way: Some stocks are like EUR/USD, highly traded, liquid, and you can have relatively tight stops. (Microsoft is an example) Some other stocks are more like GBP/JPY. A little less liquid, a higher pread, and larger stops are needed. (Think a small NASDAQ listed tech company.)

Chris
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