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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #209,342
- Dec 1, 2009 12:38pm Dec 1, 2009 12:38pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts
Trade what you see, not what you think.
- #209,343
- Dec 1, 2009 12:42pm Dec 1, 2009 12:42pm
- | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,666 Posts
Price remains within the bear flag, patience my friends... don't rush to get in.. wait for the best opportunity
i hope it comes back to 142 area, im stuck short
- #209,344
- Dec 1, 2009 12:43pm Dec 1, 2009 12:43pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts
you mean dont rush to get in short or dont rush to get in long?
i hope it comes back to 142 area, im stuck short
Trade what you see, not what you think.
- #209,345
- Edited 1:05pm Dec 1, 2009 12:51pm | Edited 1:05pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
i have been in similar situations before for a few times and i know how sensitive you can get.
calm down, look at the charts and decide if you must close the losing trade, or hedge it, or leave it like that.
CALM DOWN.
calm down, look at the charts and decide if you must close the losing trade, or hedge it, or leave it like that.
CALM DOWN.
you mean dont rush to get in short or dont rush to get in long?
i hope it comes back to 142 area, im stuck short
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #209,346
- Dec 1, 2009 12:59pm Dec 1, 2009 12:59pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
the relevant levels here are: first resistance is 146.30/60; next strong resistance is 148.10; next is 149.30... and finally the last one is 153.25.
supports are at 142.60 (the strongest one); then, weaker supports are at 143.96 (today's pvp...) and 141.
my opinion is that 142.60 should be tested again, maybe even tonight. if it holds, then look for another possible rally to 146.30/60 area; if not, then shorts should be in control again and 141 will be next target.
so, plan accordingly for a possible hedge if you see a bounce from 142.60. but be careful, it might be a fake one to where we are now... better watch it and secure it as soon as possible.
---
p.s. would you like to see some charts?
supports are at 142.60 (the strongest one); then, weaker supports are at 143.96 (today's pvp...) and 141.
my opinion is that 142.60 should be tested again, maybe even tonight. if it holds, then look for another possible rally to 146.30/60 area; if not, then shorts should be in control again and 141 will be next target.
so, plan accordingly for a possible hedge if you see a bounce from 142.60. but be careful, it might be a fake one to where we are now... better watch it and secure it as soon as possible.
---
p.s. would you like to see some charts?
you mean dont rush to get in short or dont rush to get in long?
i hope it comes back to 142 area, im stuck short
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #209,347
- Dec 1, 2009 1:09pm Dec 1, 2009 1:09pm
- | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,666 Posts
i have been in similar situations for a few times before and i know how sensitive you can get.
calm down, look at the charts and decide if you must close the losing trade, or hedge it, or leave it like that.
CALM DOWN.
it looks like it MIGHT come down from right here, its riding along the daily uptrend line that it bashed into during sundays open and hasnt reached 38.2 of the 153 to 139 range yet.
the entire move in gj seems to be dollar weakness and pound strength because UJ is still sitting well below key 87.11. as malcolm said yesterday USDX seemed to show lots of buyers and todays down move on 4h seems to have shown buyers again towards the end if im reading it right. so that could indicate dollar strength very imminent now? although im not sure what dollar strenght means for gj. if uj is the main driver and dollar strength drives uj up, even if pound is weak gj may still rise.
so infact, i dont know what the hell it will do next
- #209,348
- Dec 1, 2009 1:13pm Dec 1, 2009 1:13pm
- | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,666 Posts
the relevant levels here are: first resistance is 146.30/60; next strong resistance is 148.10; next is 149.30... and finally the last one is 153.25.
supports are at 142.60 (the strongest one); then, weaker supports are at 143.96 (today's pvp...) and 141.
my opinion is that 142.60 should be tested again, maybe even tonight. if it holds, then look for another possible rally to 146.30/60 area; if not, then shorts should be in control again and 141 will be next target.
so, plan accordingly for a possible hedge if you see a bounce from 142.60. but...
why do you say 142.60? i put 142.57 as the 23.6 retrace of move 153 to 139. seems to be some at 142.60 but more at 142.30? if it got to 142.60 i could probably average myself out.
- #209,349
- Dec 1, 2009 1:16pm Dec 1, 2009 1:16pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
there's lots of traders new to me now, but i'd like to say something for all of u guys...
why don't we all leave the silly posts aside and stick to analysis and sharing beneficial information. i'm sure there's lots of other threads for jokes or making fun of others.
back to analysis...
now that i look at the daily chart closer, i accidentally saw something i didn't see before. a bullish HD with a double bottom... now that's a bit interesting. daily 50ema is at 148.20, and the possibility of that being retested is very high, since it's next to a daily trendline. all we need is a close above the daily CCI30 -100 line for confirmation of that setup. a close above 50ema would suggest scrat's value at 153.22
i'm not shoring 4h 50ema, but i might short daily 50ema if we reach there. otherwise i'll wait for a good swing setup signal on the 4h chart.
chart:
why don't we all leave the silly posts aside and stick to analysis and sharing beneficial information. i'm sure there's lots of other threads for jokes or making fun of others.
back to analysis...
now that i look at the daily chart closer, i accidentally saw something i didn't see before. a bullish HD with a double bottom... now that's a bit interesting. daily 50ema is at 148.20, and the possibility of that being retested is very high, since it's next to a daily trendline. all we need is a close above the daily CCI30 -100 line for confirmation of that setup. a close above 50ema would suggest scrat's value at 153.22
i'm not shoring 4h 50ema, but i might short daily 50ema if we reach there. otherwise i'll wait for a good swing setup signal on the 4h chart.
chart:
- #209,350
- Dec 1, 2009 1:26pm Dec 1, 2009 1:26pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Take The A-Trade | 2,303 Posts
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
- #209,351
- Dec 1, 2009 1:30pm Dec 1, 2009 1:30pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Take The A-Trade | 2,303 Posts
Btw, I don't dare to short on this conditions, Bullish Engulfing on daily, close above 5 Sma.
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
- #209,353
- Dec 1, 2009 1:46pm Dec 1, 2009 1:46pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
- #209,354
- Dec 1, 2009 1:49pm Dec 1, 2009 1:49pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Take The A-Trade | 2,303 Posts
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
I think we need to keep an eye on UJ... Once it comes down it will bring GJ right along with it. Patience is key for many of us right now.
sure stick the charts up
why do you say 142.60? i put 142.57 as the 23.6 retrace of move 153 to 139. seems to be some at 142.60 but more at 142.30? if it got to 142.60 i could probably average myself out.
- #209,356
- Dec 1, 2009 1:58pm Dec 1, 2009 1:58pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Trading, Not Posting | 2,130 Posts
if uj is the main driver and dollar strength drives uj up, even if pound is weak gj may still rise.
so infact, i dont know what the hell it will do next
I'm in a inadvertent long on UJ from last night, which became worse when Japan (as it usually does) announced too little too late in anti-yen strengthening measures. It feels like 86.5 might be a good based for now, and I think I see a trend up for at least the next 12 hours. I can only interpret sterling strength from the meteoric GU 240 pip rise, yet GY nor UJ have barely moved. I expect GY strength, but the battle within UJ leaves me perplexed. Oh well, better to observe than risk the extremely unknown.
- #209,357
- Dec 1, 2009 2:11pm Dec 1, 2009 2:11pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Take The A-Trade | 2,303 Posts
classic divergence and hidden divergence are two different things... HD is another term for OB/OS..
and i'm also not sure if that's a bullish engulfing pattern either.
you have an example of a hidden divergence on the previous signal of your indicator.
LFXJPY:
GBPLFX:
GJ = GBPLFX*LFXJPY
And check this example of bullish engulfing, pretty similar to Geppy daily candle close today:
Trade your charts
Jhon
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
- #209,358
- Dec 1, 2009 2:35pm Dec 1, 2009 2:35pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
i work with tick profiles and base my trades on s/r levels as identified by daily/weekly/monthly profiles.
here are 2 charts. h4 (for weekly profiles), and m30 (for daily profiles). as you can see, for the current week - h4 chart - our pvp (that is where the most ticks occurred so far) is at 142.58.
then, for daily profiles, price has been above daily pvp - until today, well, this means a retracement (at least).
i put arrows on h4 chart, they show pvp values for current and previous weeks.
here are 2 charts. h4 (for weekly profiles), and m30 (for daily profiles). as you can see, for the current week - h4 chart - our pvp (that is where the most ticks occurred so far) is at 142.58.
then, for daily profiles, price has been above daily pvp - until today, well, this means a retracement (at least).
i put arrows on h4 chart, they show pvp values for current and previous weeks.
sure stick the charts up
why do you say 142.60? i put 142.57 as the 23.6 retrace of move 153 to 139. seems to be some at 142.60 but more at 142.30? if it got to 142.60 i could probably average myself out.
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #209,359
- Dec 1, 2009 2:40pm Dec 1, 2009 2:40pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
Nihil Sine Deo.