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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #11,361
  • Nov 30, 2009 8:24pm Nov 30, 2009 8:24pm
I would think that the south move is in order...of course, I have been so many time wrong...who knows...I am 100 % sure that I am 50 % right....so I am selling Euros.....in range mode.

DA, welcome back...watch out with those minarettes in Euro. They might be falling.
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #11,362
  • Nov 30, 2009 8:49pm Nov 30, 2009 8:49pm
Quoting MaMood
@raja

have checked my last 24 trading days.
Had 3 loosing days.
-> 87.5% winning days.

Have a very special way of money and risk management.
Means I'm used to start nearly every morning with a fresh 3000EUR account. In this 24 days I made ~9393EUR profit.

Would characterize my dances as a very short term dancing style.
What the M5 chart is for fti and most others here is for me the M1 chart (supported with 5 sec chart for better timing of the entries).

Cu,
MaMood
Nice job MaMood, it feels good, doesn't it? Keep up the good work!
DutchAngel, good to see you back, too.
Now, where the heck is fti? Really miss him. Perhaps he will give us an early Christmas present and drop by his old stomping grounds.
  • #11,363
  • Nov 30, 2009 8:49pm Nov 30, 2009 8:49pm
I remember fti saying somewhere in this thread that his benchmark performance is 95% or 97%, somewhere around there. Well...

Good morning everyone
  • #11,364
  • Nov 30, 2009 11:39pm Nov 30, 2009 11:39pm
@mamood,
whoa , consistency at the highest level huh?
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,365
  • Dec 1, 2009 1:38am Dec 1, 2009 1:38am
Quoting Fana
Dear fti
Äfter 3month of live trading i did huge mistake. Loss 40 % . Do you thik that its normall? I was doing about 1% a day and than i just ... crazy...
I trade like this: I see 15M trend and reverses. From 5M and 1M i go to it with 1. When its ok, let it to some 15-30pips... When it is wrong, i dont close it,but add 1. When ok, take first some 10 and than...i close the second.
Is this model ok?
It works good, but i have to ensure. Because i let all positions there until i close it with or without my dollars... And my rescue is like my first...
It sounds like you are trading a classic Martingale system - adding to losers until they become winners. This type of trading results in a high percentage of small winners, until one day, you blow up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

I recommend you do a google on Martingale systems, play around with some Excel spreadsheet simulations, and then decide if you want to continue trading the same way.

Good luck.
  • #11,366
  • Edited 1:54am Dec 1, 2009 1:44am | Edited 1:54am
Hi Friends,

thx for your kind words.
But to be honest, because I gave not all details to you about my MM, the performance is neither 300% nor is it close too.

Will give you some details a little later (or you do some research in this thread or in TAF Lounge. I'm using my way of MM for more than a year now and have disclosed most details some time ago....).

But as I have said, will give you some details later. Have to focus on London opening now ....

CU,
MaMood
  • #11,367
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:28am Dec 1, 2009 2:28am
Quoting kfmfe04
It sounds like you are trading a classic Martingale system - adding to losers until they become winners. This type of trading results in a high percentage of small winners, until one day, you blow up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

I recommend you do a google on Martingale systems, play around with some Excel spreadsheet simulations, and then decide if you want to continue trading the same way.

Good luck.
Give these guys a break...you got no idea how this is done. READ the thread.
  • #11,368
  • Dec 1, 2009 4:19am Dec 1, 2009 4:19am
Hello.

Now i live in my new flat and have all ready for trading. Never allow bad circumstaces (trading from park or car) to affect my trading. It was a great lesson for me. This doesnt mean, that i didnt make a progress with myself(mostly of my ego and circumstances). That huge loss of 40% was from my bad psychology. And that is,on what i hardly work. I pationly care about my psycho-condition. I have very good tradingsystem. It is derivativeness of FTI, adapted to myself. (trying to improve details with experienced forex friends here).
And i can responsibly declare, that i am better than before.
  • #11,369
  • Dec 1, 2009 4:23am Dec 1, 2009 4:23am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Give these guys a break...you got no idea how this is done. READ the thread.
aiyahmarklah : Thank you.
  • #11,370
  • Dec 1, 2009 4:35am Dec 1, 2009 4:35am
Quoting Fana
aiyahmarklah : Thank you.
  • #11,371
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:02am Dec 1, 2009 7:02am
Quoting GEfx
Hi ru,
Not me, but why do you ask the question? My approach is to trade my strategy on selected currency pairs each day until I have a loss (per pair) or until I get bored (which occurs more often than a loss), either of which tells me my approach has completed a cycle until the market reloads. By definition, I may have a small loss on every pair traded each day but very seldom have a loss for the day. I recommend focusing on trade execution and see what kind of win/loss ratio you can come up with. Best wishes to you.
Since I recently discovered this thread I just wanted to find out how some of you who have been here for the past 2 years are actually faring with this approach.

Thanks for sharing. I get a sense of how you go about it.

rgds
  • #11,372
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:09am Dec 1, 2009 7:09am
Quoting auxesis
Raja,

In the last 2 months I've had like 34 days that I have been able to trade at some level or capacity, in all but 3 of those days if memory serves.. I've ended in some type of profit. Obviously some were a push or barely past break even and there were a few good days mixed in as well.

I'd say you need to reevaluate your goals and check your overall view, either you are trying to micro manage your trades, not taking into the larger context of your price action, or your getting caught on time restraints that do not allow you recover if entries...
That's impressive ! 3 out of 34.

I had some problems identifying the trend and that got me into some trouble. Otherwise i had to close some trades at a loss either because did not want to stay up whole night to nurse trade or had to attend to the kids.

but still nowhere near your performance.

thanks

rgds
  • #11,373
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:16am Dec 1, 2009 7:16am
Quoting maheswara
@raja,

but I can say about 90% winning days ...
that is 2 days out of 20 days in a month I end up losing ...

just make sure such losing day is never above ur winning day average... if it crosses the line , reduce positions , fight back slowly , dont lose control and head ...


good trade
You've got impressive record as well !

I'll keep the advice in mind.

Thanks

rgds
  • #11,374
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:23am Dec 1, 2009 7:23am
Quoting MaMood
@raja

have checked my last 24 trading days.
Had 3 loosing days.
-> 87.5% winning days.

Have a very special way of money and risk management.
Means I'm used to start nearly every morning with a fresh 3000EUR account. In this 24 days I made ~9393EUR profit.

Would characterize my dances as a very short term dancing style.
What the M5 chart is for fti and most others here is for me the M1 chart (supported with 5 sec chart for better timing of the entries).

Cu,
MaMood

Amazing MaMood! and using M1 only.

I'm tending to M1 as well and timing w 10sec. Waiting for M5 to develop is a little too long due to limited trading time.

Thanks for sharing.

rgds
  • #11,375
  • Dec 1, 2009 1:13pm Dec 1, 2009 1:13pm
dear TAF congratulations for the anniversary


Blessing all
  • #11,376
  • Dec 1, 2009 1:49pm Dec 1, 2009 1:49pm
Quoting raja udang
Question for Mahe and other long time practitioners,

are you guys achieving above 90% win ratio ?

rgds
ru
I suggest reading this thread and studying it carefully plus all of the other material within it. By rescuing bad trades we should realise a high success ratio, over 90%. Not all trades will be successful but with experience most should.
  • #11,377
  • Dec 1, 2009 4:06pm Dec 1, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting Fana
Hello.

Now i live in my new flat and have all ready for trading. Never allow bad circumstaces (trading from park or car) to affect my trading. It was a great lesson for me. This doesnt mean, that i didnt make a progress with myself(mostly of my ego and circumstances). That huge loss of 40% was from my bad psychology. And that is,on what i hardly work. I pationly care about my psycho-condition. I have very good tradingsystem. It is derivativeness of FTI, adapted to myself. (trying to improve details with experienced forex friends here).
And i...
good to see that you have tour own flat now. in my own experience my psycho-condition is greatly infuenced by my inviroment....often i choose to clean my house instead of trading, if i have 1 or 2 hours.

again congratulations on your new space, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #11,378
  • Dec 1, 2009 5:40pm Dec 1, 2009 5:40pm
I feel like going north.
-Of course, I could be wrong.
Good luck to all.
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #11,379
  • Dec 2, 2009 2:50am Dec 2, 2009 2:50am
Quoting Fana
aiyahmarklah : Thank you.
I read your quote regarding your trade style. I remeber I also did the same in the beginning and the reason is that the new traders never want to lose a single trade. This style of trading only could be fruitful for a very small time but in the long run you will lose all what you gain because for exmple sometimes some currency just in one direction and when it comeback then you might lose all or your position will be liquidated.
So the best way of trading is to get the good knowledge as how to trade
technically and fundamentally. Then most of the time you will win and there will be no risk.
  • #11,380
  • Dec 2, 2009 3:06am Dec 2, 2009 3:06am
Quoting luSan
I feel like going north.
-Of course, I could be wrong.
Good luck to all.
I think you are perfectly alright as the daily chart is clearly showing that
EUR/USD
is going towards north but i think only upto 1.5180 to 1.5200
and from here it might take a U turn back to 1.5000 level .
So it is adviseable to remain in upward trend to capture 80 pips and then
get yourself out from the trade and then watch for the next signal.So happy trading
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