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(False) Breakout & Trend Reversal Strategies?? 12 replies

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USDCAD trend reversal?

Well I didn't fade the USD/CAD at 1.0540 after seeing USD gain broadly on the back of the Dubai news.

If anything, I think USD/CAD could pop up to 1.0700-20 area tomorrow, and likely won't continue lower till early next week. New idea is to sell up in 1.07 area, tentatively. I don't usually use limits etc. as I like to be awake and watching the PA before putting on a position. Paid off today as I didn't get short 1.0540. I feel like I made 50 pips on that! haha


Quoting Vengeance
Oh yeah, look to fade the USD/CAD around 1.0540...or lower at 1.0525...Target 1.0415 - 1.0370/80.
So did you short this at 1.07ish? The daily looks now to be a short opportunity going into next week.
Cheers
CanuckCT

Quoting Vengeance
Well I didn't fade the USD/CAD at 1.0540 after seeing USD gain broadly on the back of the Dubai news.

If anything, I think USD/CAD could pop up to 1.0700-20 area tomorrow, and likely won't continue lower till early next week. New idea is to sell up in 1.07 area, tentatively. I don't usually use limits etc. as I like to be awake and watching the PA before putting on a position. Paid off today as I didn't get short 1.0540. I feel like I made 50 pips on that! haha
No. I didn't have the chance to as by the time I got to work it was back in the 1.06s. Should be interesting to see what happens this coming week...
Waiting For a Nice BreakOut



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Thats right. I think the pair made two control levels for brake out. Its 1. 04 for trend down and 1.0745 for trend up. When the pair brakes one of it. Then we may talk about the direction .
Its good that this thread finally its alive again.

As the result of the NFP news last Friday, the break of 1.0583 level suggest an uptrend move to 1.0700 level is feasible?
-Only you and your signal, stick to it. The rest are just noise-
It will take a large sentiment change for the USD to reverse the damage of the Obama administration, and Bernanke. There may be a USD short covering rally near term, but in my view the USD will trade in a channel for the next few months.
A useful CAD read is: Welcome to ScotiaFX-Commentaries & Research.
google: scotia fx daily report. One of the better sheets I have found re:Cad. They had an interesting chart Dec 4th.
Quoting foto
It will take a large sentiment change for the USD to reverse the damage of the Obama administration, and Bernanke. There may be a USD short covering rally near term, but in my view the USD will trade in a channel for the next few months.

Oil is at a 6 month support level. If oil breaks its range expect this pair to follow suit.
Just Trade It
The political forces in the U.S. and other Nations of the World have large vested interests in the Global Warming scenario. The greens are in control for now and the agenda is to maintain high fossil fuel prices to wean the world away from carbon based energy technologies.
Even though my personal view is that it is political suicide to cram this theory down the throats of working people and their wallets, it none the less, is well on its way towards completion.

Keep a close watch on the upcoming energy summit. If it is just a bunch of politico's pointing fingers then true market economic forces wil drive oil prices. If instead there is a consensus, then oil and other fossil fuels are headed higher. The recent hacked climate change e-mail disclosures out of the U.K., with possible data manipulations are being investigated by the U.N. now.

Certainly the developing Nations of China and India will use these developments to delay concesssions on Carbon emissions.
4H looks to be "bear flag in down trend" continuation. If so, I'm awaiting $ to dip .0520ish then buy. STO on 4H is O/B ( so I expect a dip).TP 0590?

News tonight mentioned Dubai Holding (possible default).

Risk aversion? will Dubai become "DoBuy" USD?
Think my plan tomorrow will be scalp on 5M chart.
Did ok tonight in quiet mkt time
Last night, went long @ 0540 TP @ 0590.

Today, just scalped her down.
4H flag broke to downside.
D chart STO down 1.04ish prev lows on Nov 11 & Dec 1 ( looks to be strong support.

I 'll look for retrace trades tonight on 5M
Quoting foto
The political forces in the U.S. and other Nations of the World have large vested interests in the Global Warming scenario. The greens are in control for now and the agenda is to maintain high fossil fuel prices to wean the world away from carbon based energy technologies.
Even though my personal view is that it is political suicide to cram this theory down the throats of working people and their wallets, it none the less, is well on its way towards completion.

Keep a close watch on the upcoming energy summit. If it is just a bunch of politico's...

I don't know about you but I used to live in L.A and when I left the first thing I noticed is that the sky is blue, not brown. Global warming or cooling (lets just call it climate change) has always happened since day one. Nothing we can do to stop it, but if they can increase the quality of the air we breath and the water we drink then I am all for it. I would love to see a city full of electric cars and no smog. Long Oil Long!
Just Trade It
It is always a great good to put effort into living in accordance with Mother Nature.
The transition from a fossil fuel energy source as the prime fuel for economic growth to one based on alternative renewable energy is not a simple thing. It will take more then sophistry by the politico's to accomplish this.
Economic hardships that quitting cold turkey will have can trigger a mind boggling depression. From such things comes great Wars of true horrors.
Feel good speeches without commercialy implementable technologies is
useless rhetoric. Retooling entire National economies is the subject of epic novels.
Perhaps America and the World is at the threshold of a truly new age that will usher in something as economicaly evolutionary as the advent of the industrial revolution.
In the meantime we as traders look to the future, but need to keep our feet grounded in today.
Political and economic policies and central banks do have an impact upon market perceptions and directly impact upon currency exchange rates.
Regan's "Voodoo" economics produced a strong U.S.D. because the policies that where implementated tapped into a most basic human incentive. That of self betterment through hard work and investment.
People went the extra mile to achieve their dreams.
The wealth redistributers do not understand this. I would venture that
"Ghetto" economics is not the way to generate wealth and so we have a plunging U.S.D and stagnation.
What it will take is a major change in the 2010 elections to trigger a change in perceptions.
We also are entering an unknown outcome of War period.

We truly are living in interesting times.
Thank you for letting the loonie be a strong performing currency against the USD lately.
I see that you have let the 34 ema go less than the 50 ema & both are going down.

MacD is > H2O line but < signal & both are headed down.

$ is now @ the up TL ( from 15 Oct- 1 Dec)

So please, please, please, let it go down to my TPP 1.0408 ( prev low)!!!!!

Give Iggy ( the wannabe pm & the heck with the country) & his sidekick Jack ( me too) Layton, lumps of coal ( heck, a couple of Cape Breton coal mines).

Thanks Santa.
LOL. Problem is my old longs are turning into coal too.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
Quoting Duce
LOL. Problem is my old longs are turning into coal too.

PS: Santa;

Please turn Duce's coal into diamonds ( but only after my TPP; ok? Cuz, I asked 1st.)
I forget the comedian's name; however, he did a routine that went something like this:

Why are the Canadian Forces helicopters called Sea King? Because they are always seeking the water.

Why do they call the helicopters "Labradors"? These are frigging dogs that dive into the water. Why can't they name them eagles,gulls or terns - you know, things that can FLY?

Then Canada buys submarines from the UK- that LEAK- so they gotta be towed across the Atlantic!

Yeah, I suppose "Loonie" is an appropriate name.

Today, there is an up sperm candle (Daily) & STO o/s & heading up.
I am looking for short term buys. $ also @ low BB
Longer term: MacD< H2O & signal & heading down. The up TL from Oct 15-Dec 1 was broken.
Fundaloonally, USD is reported to be the 2010 "carry trade" currency.
I shall have bias to short with TPP 1.0205 (09/10/15 low).
Scotiabank sheet today : CFTC data: big boys are largest net long position on CAD.
They are looking @ parity mid-2010 & .97 @ year end.

So I shall "thong" US/CAD ( not a pretty visual) but the profits will pad my "codpiece".
Yep; I shall become a bare on this pair.
Quoting Scarecru
Scotiabank sheet today : CFTC data: big boys are largest net long position on CAD.
They are looking @ parity mid-2010 & .97 @ year end.

So I shall "thong" US/CAD ( not a pretty visual) but the profits will pad my "codpiece".
Yep; I shall become a bare on this pair.
Good luck with that trade. Oh, and remember that of the Big 5 banks ranked in Canada Scotia is number 6.

Not to mention that the weekly is showing divergence but hey your positive about your trade thong and all so no problem.

Oh another thing, The Canadian government said just last November that it would not be increasing rates anytime soon because of the concerns over the export manufatures in Canada and the weakness of the US dollar.
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