Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

dont forget gj needs uj to help it drop and i dont know how far japan will allow uj to continue down before some sort of proper intervention rather than just sabre rattling. for all we know they are spending the weekend preparing their intervention coordinating with other countries? either way uj back above 87.11 might indicate the bottom is done for now, if it stays below it then we head back down.

im still confused as to how uj is now well below financial crisis lows and gj is 2500 pips up from it despite the uk being in about the worst state of the lot.

I absolutely agree. I think we're guaranteed to go as high as 144 at the very least. 144, 146, and the highest is 148.

wrong count.

This is exactly right; as retail traders, we are at the complete mercy of the central banks. Without warning, every scrap of analysis can be wiped from the page. The comment about Japan being busy this weekend is almost certain IMO. Various Japanese bigwigs spent Thursday evening sh1tting bricks at the pace of Yen strength, so it's fair to assume they are doing more than just watching. Put yourself in their shoes; would you let Thursday mk2 happen during Asia on Sunday? Or would you be setting the groundwork this weekend? So far, I have not seen too much weekend movement in prices. xe.com were quoting 141.8 late on Friday, but that soon changed.

I would not be surprised to see Kaboom seriously challenged this week.

enjoy ..if you are happy today with GJ dont be mad next time it hurt u...GJ is the best and the worst pair u can trade.....very volatile for newbie....just play Safe...

follow the trend...PA is bearish, possible retrace back to 144-146 ...you need not to wait for price to break 135 just trade the signal ur chart give u..
enjoy

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/sean_hy...03/147146.html

Make sure and check the date on that headline. The BOJ has been crying since 100, why are we testing 85 then? We were at 156 on the GBP/YEN.

yep its entirely possible that nothing will come of it which is why im looking down more than up at the moment. gotta play it safe though, if they do intervene in uj in a big way then gj could skyrocket and u be a few hundred pips down before u blink after it jumps over any stop you might have and lands 200 pips on the other side.

plus, if they werent happy at 100, they will be far less happy now, and more likely to intervene. they were never likely to intervene near 100.

having said that, if you were going to intervene, would you try and do it against the whole market selling, or would you let it double bottom at 85 first and THEN intervene when a lot of people are taking profits off and going long anyway?

ill look to short gj if uj stays under 87.11, but ill make damn sure im out when uj gets near 85 just in case.

maybe BOJ is not match for "smart money"....It takes time for them to respond...

I ve been trading on g/j for about 2 years.I dont know who is a newer trader in your opinion.if It is me /I va been trading on g/j for about 2 years and I ve made hundread of $ just on this pair.If you could diagnose how this pair could be profitable you would pay more attention to it.newer trader
hey guys what do u think who could be a newer trader?

there isn't a central bank out there who's "no match"...

don't worry, everything's going according to "plan"...

forex is predetermined. we traders just try to figure out where "they" determined price to be.

made an A4 post it on wall above pc
i suggest everybody else do this as well

or death of GU and strengh increase usd

yep

From the look of the current situation pound may suffer from the financial crisis that is taken place now. From my study when financial crisis is coming pound will be devastated furthermore with the recession issue. I will short gbpusd

yes... agreed my friend... Im so happy to see you again...

dollar index ...look at that volume on Monthly , according to VSA that is all buyers

It's not unusual at yeard end. Thus, long USD till Feb or Mar

yo yo!!!!!!!!!!

By Matt Carniol Dubai:

Not A Permanent Effect If…

While global stock markets plunged (and the dollar rose) in the wake of Dubai World’s effort to reach a standstill agreement with its creditors, one has to keep the most important fact in mind. Technically, at least at this time, there is no default nor is there likely to be one. And although there could be some restructuring of the $80 billion stockpile of debt accrued, the impact will likely be but a short term, a knee-jerk reaction that will soon be forgotten by investors.

Dubai World, which is controlled by the government of Dubai, did however have something that was very important to investors; an implicit guarantee from other United Arab Emigrate nations (especially from oil-rich Abu Dhabi) that the debt would be repaid.

Background

Abu Dhabi and Dubai are two members of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a federation of seven small states that was formed in 1971. Abu Dhabi is by far the richest of the seven because it has the bulk of oil reserves and is the federation’s capital. Since the 1980’s, Dubai has been intent on diversifying its economy because it has little or no oil and it’s main thrust has been a huge infrastructure expansion in support of a global financial hub. The states of Dubai and Abu Dhabi are ruled by royalty and there are long-established merchant family relationships between them.

Dubai has experienced cash flow problems since the collapse of Lehman last year and it became necessary to do what many governments do when cash appears to be running short-issue more debt. In February, the UAE central bank subscribed $10B out of a proposed $20B bond program issued by Dubai. On Wednesday, two Abu Dhabi banks subscribed a further $5B to the program, leaving another $5B yet to be issued. Then something strange happened.

On Wednesday, the Dubai department of finance made two statements, saying first it had raised the remaining $5B and then two hours later asking for a standstill until the end of May on payments due from Dubai World.

The Reaction

As is typical with any debt crisis, the credit default swaps protecting the bonds rose dramatically in price. Investors in Asia and Europe (U.S. markets were closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday) fled risky assets (stocks and any currencies other than the dollar and the yen). S&P futures declined as much as 3% in overnight trading but by Friday morning had pared the loss to around 2.5%.

The (Likely) Result

Investors in the region (primarily banks like RBS and Barclay’s) will need to reassess their risk premiums in future transactions, since the formerly implicit sovereign guarantees seem to be less so. But by global standards the amounts are relatively small and in any event, much (if not all) is likely to be repaid. What this sets up then, in my opinion, is a chance to once again “buy low,” or to partake in what Warren Buffett refers to as being greedy when others are fearful.

Now, doing this of course involves a bit of risk in that it’s extremely difficult to time the best entry correctly. Even Buffett himself failed miserably at this when he made his famous Goldman Sachs investment (announced on September 23, 2008) which came months before an actual bottom was seen in the stock although at this point, he’s billions of dollars ahead of the game.

Of course, if the data next week should surprise to the downside, Dubai will be viewed as a tipping point. There are a number of important reports such as Chinese, European and American PMI numbers due for release next Monday and Tuesday and of course, we’re in the holiday shopping season so reports on sales will obviously be very important to investors as well. I’m looking for the data and sales figures to continue the trend of improvement as the global economy continues its modest rebound from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and if all works out as planned, the Dubai effect will recede to the backrooms of the banks involved.