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Silent Service Method

  • #5,941
  • Nov 27, 2009 10:40am Nov 27, 2009 10:40am
Chris, I was long GU yesterday for that last leg up. When you and the guys were talking short.... I thought id take profit and see what price did. Nice trade

I see you trailing stops, do you trail all your stops? I posted last year about this too and am still in stop hell. I don't know a good a exercise to find a stop that fits me! I'm profitable but man I leave so much on the table. Its not just finding the most profitable but would like some thing that feels emotionally ok too. If you would share your experience with how you found what works for you with your stops (and not just Chris anyone please) I would appreciate it.
I use the mbq11 drop one lower time frame to look for conflicting PA sometimes and profit targets other times.

Hope you guys had a good turkey day!



Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #5,942
  • Nov 27, 2009 10:54am Nov 27, 2009 10:54am
Quoting whitegoodman
Damn my trades last night, I will miss that 2% of my account however in hindsight were still good trades, on another note I made it all back and then some today... nothing quite like, as Chris puts it "paying for information"..

Here below is an excerpt from my journal.
this isnt showing how to trade per se' more on how I approach the market, how I use other markets to trade, how I use fundamentals etc.
WG, thank you so much for sharing your processes. I hate to admit it but I just trade really simple and looks like I am missing something. If I understand you correctly the nykki broke down BEFORE the the sell off in AUD , EJ and GJ? If that is the case I will most defiantly have to start to incorporate this into my homework!
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #5,943
  • Nov 27, 2009 1:52pm Nov 27, 2009 1:52pm
Analysis for the weekend................gbpjpy at very interesting Support level of 140 and confluence with 50%Fibs.........i think we might have a runner here next week..............just out of curiosity..........might this be an indication of NFA..............only time will tell.......eurjpy behaving in similar way............all correlated pairs to gbpjpy are giving long signals................

cheers all and nice weekend...................imagine guys (including my gal) are out having beers.......n guess what am i doing...........doing my analysis........coz tomorrow am OUT........................HURRAAYYYY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy (daily).gif Size: 19 KB
  • #5,944
  • Nov 27, 2009 1:56pm Nov 27, 2009 1:56pm
Whats with all the Pin Bars forming on almost all pairs......gbpjpy, eurjpy, usdjpy, usdcad, gbpusd, ok...............all yen pairs have Pins................look for swing lows..........................
  • #5,945
  • Nov 27, 2009 2:05pm Nov 27, 2009 2:05pm
Don't forget the BOJ's threats of intervention. I may just avoid the yen pairs for a few days.
  • #5,946
  • Nov 27, 2009 2:38pm Nov 27, 2009 2:38pm
Quoting Danku
Whats with all the Pin Bars forming on almost all pairs......gbpjpy, eurjpy, usdjpy, usdcad, gbpusd, ok...............all yen pairs have Pins................look for swing lows..........................
How often does something like this happen, and do we then take trades where these have happened at the right levels, or would we perhaps write them all off as some strange price movement as could be seen on some thing similar to NFP friday?

To my uninformed mind this looks like some irrational behaviour. I guess however that as chartists we do take into account obviously important fundamentals, not to trade on but to decide whether or not to get in... would i be correct in this?

Apparently, Dubai had some trouble financing it loans, which is a major issue for them.

Loooit
Ask me again when I know what I'm talking about.
  • #5,947
  • Nov 27, 2009 3:27pm Nov 27, 2009 3:27pm
Quoting aSandman
Chris, I was long GU yesterday for that last leg up. When you and the guys were talking short.... I thought id take profit and see what price did....
That's how I do it as well.....but I thought Mike always stayed on the same time frame. He must have changed what he does.

I always take a look one time frame down, and leave it at that.....if I am going with the overall trend. If I am counter trend - I set targets......

As far as find what worked for me, I just kind of fell into it after experimentation. I can honestly tell you that it is all a personal matter. I can however, tell you a perfect litmus test:

If you can comfortably walk away from a trade, you have accepted the risk, the size, and the time frame you are working with. Anything less, and you are not in the right set up. I wish there was a cut and dry answer, but there really isn't. You mentioned you are profitable......so you are certainly on your way.
  • #5,948
  • Nov 27, 2009 3:34pm Nov 27, 2009 3:34pm
Quoting aSandman
WG, thank you so much for sharing your processes. I hate to admit it but I just trade really simple and looks like I am missing something. If I understand you correctly the nykki broke down BEFORE the the sell off in AUD , EJ and GJ? If that is the case I will most defiantly have to start to incorporate this into my homework!
I think WG would say something like this:

Knowing how the markets interact is like another tool. It's not completely necessary, but a lot of the time it can tell you where to look for a potential trade.

So for example, the Nikkei is going down, and so is gold.....sounds like a bad time for anything even remotely risk related......you know to look at places like the AUD/USD or AUD/JPY pair for example.....

This subject is a much larger scope than this post can cover, but it's a rough idea of what he's talking about.

I tell all of my students/members/trading buddies, etc. the same thing: You need to know other markets as well as forex. Believe it or not - forex is secondary to several markets.
  • #5,949
  • Nov 27, 2009 3:39pm Nov 27, 2009 3:39pm
Quoting Low
Don't forget the BOJ's threats of intervention. I may just avoid the yen pairs for a few days.
I have this theory that were aren't too far from a long term play shorting the Yen again......maybe going long USD/JPY......but only time will tell. If I go long this pair, I need a good set up, and hold it forever. I haven't seen it yet - but I have my eyes wide open.
  • #5,950
  • Nov 27, 2009 3:57pm Nov 27, 2009 3:57pm
Quoting aSandman
WG, thank you so much for sharing your processes. I hate to admit it but I just trade really simple and looks like I am missing something. If I understand you correctly the nykki broke down BEFORE the the sell off in AUD , EJ and GJ? If that is the case I will most defiantly have to start to incorporate this into my homework!

no the nikkeis down move was as a reuslt of the strength in Yen, all eyes are on the 87 level on the Yen this week and once it broke the move was violent to the downside hitting plenty of stops (you can tell it hits stops by the rapid move and how price seems to 'jump' down)

Cos im predominantly focused on AUDUSD atm I was make sure I have the SPI (Aussie equties future). Gold, Euro, Pound (not as linked as Euro and Aussie but still), S&P 500, Nikkei, Hang Seng charts open... the market changes throughout the day and can often change in character depending on various markets opening times, for example when Honk Kong/China opens up it seems the rest of Asian region follows. So yeah at times you can often get 'leads' by just keeping an eye on other markets...
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #5,951
  • Nov 27, 2009 4:03pm Nov 27, 2009 4:03pm
Quoting clockwork71
I have this theory that were aren't too far from a long term play shorting the Yen again......maybe going long USD/JPY......but only time will tell. If I go long this pair, I need a good set up, and hold it forever. I haven't seen it yet - but I have my eyes wide open.
Yeh theres so much talk over the squwak about Japanese exporters saying this is unsustainable, Fuji saying they are 'keeping an eye' on it yada yada.

I personally got short when it came up near 87 last night, and on the 4hr chart looks bearish.. However I do believe if we are looking for Yen depreciation you'd wanna get in on a good break of 87 to the upside, or if your more conservative look for a break and retest of 87... keep in mind that the BOJ is known to influence their currency the smost by intervention, so its not really a idle threat.

Also on another interesting note, it seems Eurchf is getting very close to that 1.50 level again... are the SNB still stepping in or is it jsut traders pre-empting now, who knows...
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #5,952
  • Nov 27, 2009 4:06pm Nov 27, 2009 4:06pm
CW,

You got any thoughts going into next week? I'm really on the fence everywhere. I'm holding shorts on gbpusd and gold, and long usdcad. The Dubai-default selloff was neato and all, but will likely be resolved through the weekend, providing solid ground for US indexes and PM's to continue their upward trajectory.

On the counterpoint there's the BOJ (and China too) complaining about dollar weakness, and both the Yen and the Swissy are at levels worth watching. Add the DXY 2-day pin, and there appears to some merit to holding these trades.
  • #5,953
  • Nov 27, 2009 8:00pm Nov 27, 2009 8:00pm
Quoting whitegoodman
Yeh theres so much talk over the squwak about Japanese exporters saying this is unsustainable, Fuji saying they are 'keeping an eye' on it yada yada.

I personally got short when it came up near 87 last night, and on the 4hr chart looks bearish.. However I do believe if we are looking for Yen depreciation you'd wanna get in on a good break of 87 to the upside, or if your more conservative look for a break and retest of 87... keep in mind that the BOJ is known to influence their currency the smost by intervention, so its not really a idle threat....

I actually have been watching that EUR/CHF myself......the great thing is that you have some obvious stop levels there. A real no-brainer trade if I ever saw one.

As for the Japanese.....they are hurting in a few ways. The exporters are getting waxed by the currency issues, but let's not forget one other thing: Treasuries. They are losing money on a lot of different fronts. The Yen will be very interesting to say the least. I am looking for a long signal, but on a larger time frame. It will be obvious when it happens.....it normally is.

Until then, it's all conjecture anyways.
  • #5,954
  • Nov 27, 2009 8:08pm Nov 27, 2009 8:08pm
Quoting Low
CW,

You got any thoughts going into next week? I'm really on the fence everywhere. I'm holding shorts on gbpusd and gold, and long usdcad. The Dubai-default selloff was neato and all, but will likely be resolved through the weekend, providing solid ground for US indexes and PM's to continue their upward trajectory.

On the counterpoint there's the BOJ (and China too) complaining about dollar weakness, and both the Yen and the Swissy are at levels worth watching. Add the DXY 2-day pin, and there appears to some merit to holding these trades.
I am including a weekly chart of the "Dixie"....(Dollar Index) It shows major support at the bottom of those bars, so yes.....it makes sense.

To be honest, I don't know if that whole Dubai thing will work itself out over the weekend like you say. All I know is that it's front page news all of the sudden. A lot of people seemed to be really, really interested in this. I don't know that it's the trend change of a lifetime, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some follow through. If there is any bad news over the weekend - it's on like Donkey Kong.

I am still short GBP/USD myself. I didn't short gold or anything else, so I am fine as far as those are concerned myself. In fact, I am still long a few things via options, etc.

I didn't get home in time today to adjust my GBP/USD trade....so I am still there. I am not worried one way or the other. The fear always leads to losses in the end. All you can do is let the trade work out based on your technical skills. I have a profit locked in, so it's really easy for me I suppose, but the truth is this: You can't control what happens when the market opens back up.

I can say this though: If you close out, it will fall another 500 pips right afterward. It just seems to happen that way, doesn't it?

Chris
  • #5,955
  • Nov 27, 2009 8:54pm Nov 27, 2009 8:54pm
Quoting clockwork71
I actually have been watching that EUR/CHF myself......the great thing is that you have some obvious stop levels there. A real no-brainer trade if I ever saw one.

As for the Japanese.....they are hurting in a few ways. The exporters are getting waxed by the currency issues, but let's not forget one other thing: Treasuries. They are losing money on a lot of different fronts. The Yen will be very interesting to say the least. I am looking for a long signal, but on a larger time frame. It will be obvious when it happens.....it normally is.

Until...
Ahhh the Japanese economy...

Let's not forget they have been running massive budget deficits for ages. Their current deficit is over 10% of GDP and their total outstanding public debt will reach the ungodly sum of 200% of GDP by 2011. To put that in perspective, although the US budget deficits have exploded the last 2yrs, our accumulated debt is still around $12tr vs. our current GDP of $14tr.

To make matters worse, the Japanese economy is getting older (demographically) and will lose many workers in the coming years to retirement (further lowering their tax base). Add to this concoction the fact that they're paying unusually low rates on long term debt (10yr government bonds in japan yield 1.5% -- And you thought US treasuries were unappealing at 3.5%!!). If for some reason their borrowing costs increase they could be pushed further and further into debt based on interest on their newly issued debt.

It's not hard to envision a very bad economic scenario for Japan. I just hope the US isn't mirroring the steps the Japanese took during their "lost decade".

But I digress.... (sorry for the tangent) The EUR/CHF looks setting up for a big move: Obvious downtrend on the weekly going back to the fall of 2007, it looks like 1.50 has been a line in the sand (for the market, and more recently for the SNB). My chart doesn't show touches it had in 2000, 2003 and 2004, but the level held up pretty well, but not so much in 2001-2002. If that level gets taken out, could be a nice short. If not, the bounce off 1.50 and break of the trend line could give you a nice long. I'll be keeping an eye on it.

Here's what my weekly chart looks like:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf-weekly.gif Size: 27 KB


Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
  • #5,956
  • Nov 28, 2009 2:48am Nov 28, 2009 2:48am
ebay on the daily. up or down? i guess up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ebay.png Size: 17 KB
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #5,957
  • Nov 28, 2009 5:51am Nov 28, 2009 5:51am
speaking of japan, lots of daily pins on jpy pairs, most at ppz
  • #5,958
  • Nov 28, 2009 6:29am Nov 28, 2009 6:29am
Hey Loooit, As the Pins are mostly on strong S/R, i am not looking for major moves just a move to the next minor S/R....as marked on my charts in white........i think there is quite abit of irrationality taking place here and i do not trust these pins will eventually give runners hence the need for my minor S/R, i think the Dubai issue has alot to do with the Thursday & Friday movements no wonder i lost on the AUDUSD long.......cheers

Quoting Loooit
How often does something like this happen, and do we then take trades where these have happened at the right levels, or would we perhaps write them all off as some strange price movement as could be seen on some thing similar to NFP friday?

To my uninformed mind this looks like some irrational behaviour. I guess however that as chartists we do take into account obviously important fundamentals, not to trade on but to decide whether or not to get in... would i be correct in this?

Apparently, Dubai had some trouble financing it loans, which is...
  • #5,959
  • Nov 28, 2009 10:06am Nov 28, 2009 10:06am
Quoting clockwork71
a perfect litmus test:

If you can comfortably walk away from a trade, you have accepted the risk, the size, and the time frame you are working with. Anything less, and you are not in the right set up. I wish there was a cut and dry answer, but there really isn't. You mentioned you are profitable......so you are certainly on your way.
Right on. This is the advice I was looking for. Thank you

Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #5,960
  • Nov 28, 2009 11:39am Nov 28, 2009 11:39am
Quoting aSandman
Right on. This is the advice I was looking for. Thank you

Jason


Actually, what is completely ironic is the first time I ever did this: It was by accident. My wife needed to go somewhere, and I was going to close the trade for a small loss, but wasn't sure what to do about it to be honest. She simply said: "I thought you used stop losses, isn't that what they are for?" I figured, she was right. I came home, and I was up triple digits (in pips) for the first time ever. There was a huge lesson in that trade.

Chris
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