Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #209,002
- Nov 27, 2009 4:22pm Nov 27, 2009 4:22pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
having kids doesn't imply being married, does it now
I remember one call you made ... dj down to 6500 then back to 11000....
That was the call of the Century...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #209,003
- Nov 27, 2009 5:00pm Nov 27, 2009 5:00pm
yes, i was thinking about this for a long time, but i got encouraged to say it when someone else was actually supporting my analysis.
take a look at the weekly chart. it's SCARY, that monthly uptrend was absolutely not normal. trends like these (according to TA) end with disaster. sugar coating it wont work.
this is the scenario i'm thinking. 7000 levels, then a massive (i mean MASSIVE) 1-2 year governmental intervention that will drive DJ back to the highs at 10800 - 11000 levels and from there....... HELL.
by the way, did u buy ur guns...
- #209,004
- Nov 27, 2009 5:03pm Nov 27, 2009 5:03pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
hey lilmoe .. long time hope all is well
I remember one call you made ... dj down to 6500 then back to 11000....
That was the call of the Century...
well, the low went 500 pips below my prediction, but i guess for a LONG TERM prediction it's not THAT big of an error
if that same prediction is anywhere close to right, i think we should be in big-range mode between 11000 and 8500 for next year (maybe all year).
what's your take on 'long term' ?
- #209,005
- Nov 27, 2009 5:06pm Nov 27, 2009 5:06pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
LOL I remember the post also, and all I said was no way. Yet here we are
- #209,006
- Nov 27, 2009 5:42pm Nov 27, 2009 5:42pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Trading going well , not making billions of pips every week but at least consistant which is good
In regards to overall markets I think we test lows and maybe even lower. There is another crisis looming around the corner. Do you hear on the news how FDIC are spending about 5 to 10 billion per month on bank failures and that so far this year 120 have failed and they expect 400 to 1000 more before things really turn around, that CIT filed for chapter 11 , that AMBAC filed for chpater 11 and that 3 1.2 year bonds went negative , meaning that big money have to pay to hold the bonds , but they are willing to do that than buy equities... no you do not. All you hear is oh ' unemployment claims were ONLY 490 k this month , lets push the market up under LOW volume based on this half arsed good news.....
I is all going to come crashing down sooner rather than later
June 2010 , then contuned slide thru 3rd and 4th quarters , sideways / range 2011 and then bull market 2012 for next 5 years
GU target 1.4000
GJ 125
DJ as you said 8500
In regards to overall markets I think we test lows and maybe even lower. There is another crisis looming around the corner. Do you hear on the news how FDIC are spending about 5 to 10 billion per month on bank failures and that so far this year 120 have failed and they expect 400 to 1000 more before things really turn around, that CIT filed for chapter 11 , that AMBAC filed for chpater 11 and that 3 1.2 year bonds went negative , meaning that big money have to pay to hold the bonds , but they are willing to do that than buy equities... no you do not. All you hear is oh ' unemployment claims were ONLY 490 k this month , lets push the market up under LOW volume based on this half arsed good news.....
I is all going to come crashing down sooner rather than later
June 2010 , then contuned slide thru 3rd and 4th quarters , sideways / range 2011 and then bull market 2012 for next 5 years
GU target 1.4000
GJ 125
DJ as you said 8500
hey there big guy! how're your trades goin'?
well, the low went 500 pips below my prediction, but i guess for a LONG TERM prediction it's not THAT big of an error
if that same prediction is anywhere close to right, i think we should be in big-range mode between 11000 and 8500 for next year (maybe all year).
what's your take on 'long term' ?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #209,007
- Nov 27, 2009 6:13pm Nov 27, 2009 6:13pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
- #209,009
- Nov 27, 2009 7:14pm Nov 27, 2009 7:14pm
sounds good (analysis-wise) though sad in reality...
i have no idea what the heck everyone's thinking "it's going to be ok"....
i'll tell you what's going to be ok in the timeframe you established: MY CRAPPER!
btw, did u watch 2012 (the movie)? well im not really sure if that's what's going to happen to earth during the end of that year, but i think i'm sure that's how the MARKET will be!
I think we all miss you Crapper
and.. Happy Eid el Kabir..
- #209,010
- Nov 27, 2009 7:38pm Nov 27, 2009 7:38pm
sounds good (analysis-wise) though sad in reality...
i have no idea what the heck everyone's thinking "it's going to be ok"....
i'll tell you what's going to be ok in the timeframe you established: MY CRAPPER!
btw, did u watch 2012 (the movie)? well im not really sure if that's what's going to happen to earth during the end of that year, but i think i'm sure that's how the MARKET will be!
- #209,011
- Nov 27, 2009 7:48pm Nov 27, 2009 7:48pm
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
Inserted Video
Trading going well , not making billions of pips every week but at least consistant which is good
In regards to overall markets I think we test lows and maybe even lower. There is another crisis looming around the corner. Do you hear on the news how FDIC are spending about 5 to 10 billion per month on bank failures and that so far this year 120 have failed and they expect 400 to 1000 more before things really turn around, that CIT filed for chapter 11 , that AMBAC filed for chpater 11 and that 3 1.2 year bonds went negative , meaning that big...
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- #209,012
- Nov 27, 2009 9:42pm Nov 27, 2009 9:42pm
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: bye FF | 8,806 Posts
hey there bud.
EVERYONE's been telling me i've been hiding in a cave, even close friends here where i live! looool.
i'm just too busy with stuff bro, what about u? how're the kids?
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
- #209,013
- Nov 27, 2009 10:25pm Nov 27, 2009 10:25pm
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: bye FF | 8,806 Posts
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
- #209,014
- Nov 28, 2009 3:25am Nov 28, 2009 3:25am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
Hi Moe.. glad to see you posting here again..
I think we all miss you Crapper
and.. Happy Eid el Kabir..
- #209,015
- Nov 28, 2009 3:51am Nov 28, 2009 3:51am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
gold has been a major player in the market. several days ago a friend of mine asked what i thought about gold. i told them that a top was established and we should see a drop from there. the uptrend in the past weeks was reaching a climax; meaning that it accelerated in a force stronger than that in the period of its uptrend, that usually indicates a top. we had the same behavior with oil back at the 150$ point. we should see heavy PA next week and MAYBE the week after, but it SHOULDN'T go further up (at least not 100's of pips over the current top).
CCI is indicating a bearish divergence on the weekly daily chart, and a weekly FE 100 target was reached. 1195 should be the top of gold for the year, and before the year ends we should see a significant drop.
don't worry about the news, when TA tells ya it's a top then they HAVE to come up with some sort of story (ie; Dubai) to drop gold prices.
nice evening star pattern on the daily chart (doji followed by a bearish hammer) also indicating a top.
should gold go down, then the dollar should start strengthening again. i know BS right? looool.
oil should start going down too i assume since it's been in range (correction) for some time now.
nothing's absolute, and figuring out bullish market tops or bearish market bottoms isn't an easy thing to do. gold's at all-times-high, and we have no previous data to compare previous levels, so predicting a top yields only 50% accuracy (max). i'm using previous behavior in oil to compare those two commodities' PA.
gold weekly Chart:
gold Daily chart:
CCI is indicating a bearish divergence on the weekly daily chart, and a weekly FE 100 target was reached. 1195 should be the top of gold for the year, and before the year ends we should see a significant drop.
don't worry about the news, when TA tells ya it's a top then they HAVE to come up with some sort of story (ie; Dubai) to drop gold prices.
nice evening star pattern on the daily chart (doji followed by a bearish hammer) also indicating a top.
should gold go down, then the dollar should start strengthening again. i know BS right? looool.
oil should start going down too i assume since it's been in range (correction) for some time now.
nothing's absolute, and figuring out bullish market tops or bearish market bottoms isn't an easy thing to do. gold's at all-times-high, and we have no previous data to compare previous levels, so predicting a top yields only 50% accuracy (max). i'm using previous behavior in oil to compare those two commodities' PA.
gold weekly Chart:
gold Daily chart:
- #209,016
- Nov 28, 2009 3:55am Nov 28, 2009 3:55am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2008 | 3,395 Posts
The Market pays you to be disciplined
- #209,017
- Nov 28, 2009 4:03am Nov 28, 2009 4:03am
- Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,753 Posts
Great to see you here Moe. I've read your journal with interest.
- #209,019
- Edited 7:45am Nov 28, 2009 4:25am | Edited 7:45am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2008 | 3,395 Posts
The Market pays you to be disciplined