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DeMark TDST Trading

  • #201
  • Nov 27, 2009 3:01am Nov 27, 2009 3:01am


Attached Image



GBPUSD


The bulls are in control here on both the daily and weekly timeframe however their dominance is coming under threat as it appears the bears are sharpening their claws. Since the bulls took the upper daily BAT resistance level of 1.6554 they have really failed to make any progress and even produced a breakout failure. We are currently hovering right around the 60 day SMA and the 55 week EMA and should these levels be taken to a close I fear for the bulls. Taking this into consideration I would rather sit on the sidelines and see if the bulls can hold the MA levels or the bears can take them out. Should the latter play out the bears will have their sights on the lower daily BAT support at 1.5984 which if taken would be an important victory for the bears in the overall battle and open the way for a move to the 1.5 level initially where the weekly BAT support is situated.



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Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #202
  • Nov 27, 2009 3:26am Nov 27, 2009 3:26am
Quoting foggyTrader
Attachment


GBPUSD


[font=Verdana][size=2]The bulls are in control here on both the daily and weekly timeframe however their dominance is coming under threat as it appears the bears are sharpening their claws. Since the bulls took the upper daily BAT resistance level of 1.6554 they have really failed to make any progress and even produced a breakout failure. We are currently hovering right around the 60 day SMA and the 55 week EMA and should these levels be taken to a close I fear for the bulls. Taking this into...
Foggytrader, how do you determine the which brearish thrust to use and does iut mean anything. I ma referring to the bearish thrust high on the GBPUSD weekly chart
  • #203
  • Nov 27, 2009 4:04am Nov 27, 2009 4:04am
Quoting FXSnipe
Foggytrader, how do you determine the which brearish thrust to use and does iut mean anything. I ma referring to the bearish thrust high on the GBPUSD weekly chart
The rule of my daily and weekly analysis is as follows:

Break of upper BAT Resistance:

a) Look for a retracement of at least 25% from the high made post-bat breach to the swing low (draw fibo from high to low)
b) watch for bearish thrust bars
c) close back above the last bearish thrust bars high = Bullish confirmation
d) look for opportunities to go long

Break of lower BAT Support:

a) look for a retracement of at least 25% from the low made post-bat breach to the swing high (draw fibo from low to high)
b) watch for Bullish thrust bars
c) close below the last bullish thrust bars low = Bearish confirmation
d) look for opportunities to go short

I will also look for opportunities to go trade just after the daily breach if it is not in agreement with the weekly as it is more likely to give a strong retracement initially.

Hope this helps,

Cheers
Foggytrader

p.s. Just to let everyone know I am a little busy at the moment but the pairs I have not commented on this morning I am on the sidelines with all but USDCAD where I am looking to go long still, with the 1.0644 5 minute TDST support level the current opportunity should we get there and have a bounce. I will do full analysis of what happens the rest of the day and post them over the weekend in anticipation of next weeks trading. Looking at GBPJPY at the moment, if it closes where it is then I will look for opportunities to go long with a short-term target before I add to my short position later for an eventual move to 131 - 125.
  • #204
  • Nov 27, 2009 5:57am Nov 27, 2009 5:57am
Foggytrader, thanks something similar to Roy Kelly's system, currently reading his book. Looking forward to checking your analysis for next week
  • #205
  • Nov 27, 2009 6:09am Nov 27, 2009 6:09am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Foggy,

How strict is your trigger for entry?

See attached...


Magnus
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  • #206
  • Nov 27, 2009 6:13am Nov 27, 2009 6:13am
Quoting FXSnipe
Foggytrader, thanks something similar to Roy Kelly's system, currently reading his book. Looking forward to checking your analysis for next week
No problem, glad someone is getting involved. I don't see me taking anymore trades this week. But I am sure there will be more opportunities next week.

Out of interest, my only regret this week is shown in the chart below. I had been calling to go long for about the past two weeks on USDCAD but let my guard down and missed this one on the 15 minute. I don't often use the 15 minute chart especially for the likes of GBPJPY but if the risk is low enough I do take signals from time to time on the this timeframe. In this particular example the risk was only 13 pips. Although I am gutted I missed it, the chart only goes to increase my confidence that my methods are correct. I can assure anyone reading my thread that these opportunities present themselves every week, and what I am trying to do on this thread is tell people which ones to look for based on my experience.


Cheers
Foggytrader
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  • #207
  • Nov 27, 2009 6:20am Nov 27, 2009 6:20am
Quoting Yuppie
Foggy,

How strict is your trigger for entry?

See attached...


Magnus
Thanks for the question magnus,

I would view the first example as a perfect setup and the second as a void setup. The second one closes below the TDST support and from my experience the highest it will go from there is the low of the 9th bar in the TD sell setup which produced the TDST support. I would leave the second one and await another opportunity. Perhaps if there was a TDST support level on the 15 minute chart at the same place it could be a bounce on that timeframe but otherwise, yes, I would just leave it.

Hope that answers your question, but yes, you have to be strict.

Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #208
  • Nov 27, 2009 6:54am Nov 27, 2009 6:54am
Quoting foggyTrader
No problem, glad someone is getting involved. I don't see me taking anymore trades this week. But I am sure there will be more opportunities next week.

Out of interest, my only regret this week is shown in the chart below. I had been calling to go long for about the past two weeks on USDCAD but let my guard down and missed this one on the 15 minute. I don't often use the 15 minute chart especially for the likes of GBPJPY but if the risk is low enough I do take signals from time to time on the this timeframe. In this particular example the risk...

I am surprised that few people follow this system as one can easily compound the account risking very little as far as I have seen this system inthe last coulple of days. I will do my analysis and backtesting on this as it got me excited. I have no problem of trading any system as long as the risk on each trade is small relative to the potential reward, this to me fits the profile. I have never traded nay sytem with such small stop loss levels
  • #209
  • Nov 27, 2009 8:02am Nov 27, 2009 8:02am
  •  Yuppie
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: ̿ ̿ ̿̿'̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪●)=/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ | 2,727 Posts
Quoting FXSnipe
I am surprised that few people follow this system as one can easily compound the account risking very little as far as I have seen this system inthe last coulple of days. I will do my analysis and backtesting on this as it got me excited. I have no problem of trading any system as long as the risk on each trade is small relative to the potential reward, this to me fits the profile. I have never traded nay sytem with such small stop loss levels
At the risk of sounding pedantic, Foggy has mentioned throughout this thread that there is discretion involved in this method.

Time-served, market experience and having [relatively] longer-term views seem crucial here.

(note: I reserve the right to be wrong)


Magnus
  • #210
  • Nov 27, 2009 10:08pm Nov 27, 2009 10:08pm
Hi FoggyTrader,

I have been following this thread for a week and had traded with some positive results. I liked this system with its low risk trades. I have some doubts and hope you can clarify for me.

1. Do you only use the cureent day support and resistant lines for entry? Do you use earlier days S/R lines for referance or entry when you enter a trade?

2. Do you only use the first failure candle as entry candle disregarding any subsequent failure candles that follow, irrespective of the size of the first or following candles?

3. Do you only enter long when the candle breach and bounce off the support line? What if the prices break above a last red or resistant line, before a new red/green line is formed and turn back to the same red line and bounce from the line, do you use this line as a long entry?

Appreciate your reply.

Thanks and regards,
lau

ps. the TDCount indicator seem to slow down my pc. Anyway to solve this problem?
  • #211
  • Nov 28, 2009 4:30am Nov 28, 2009 4:30am
Quote
ps. the TDCount indicator seem to slow down my pc. Anyway to solve this problem?
In indicator settings change "Numberbars" from 5000 to 1000 and should be fine.
  • #212
  • Nov 29, 2009 10:24am Nov 29, 2009 10:24am
Hi All,

Have been following this thread since the start of this thread. Personally, i'm a fan of TD Combo, TD Sequential and TDST.

I'm grateful to all contributors to this thread to make TDST trading alive. I've been following quietly and benefited from this thread. Thank you all.

However, i have the following personal issues which, i hope anyone of you can help me to overcome:

1. Can anyone suggest / help to move the wordings on the right side of the chart to the left side of the chart?

2. Can anyone upload the a version of the TD Combo indicator (if any) that STICKS to the original TD Combo rules? It's so hard to find one because most (if not all) writers of free TD Combo indicator wrote to their personal preference and application. I'm not saying that they are wrong, it's just that i like to stick to the originals....

Just to share: I would use TD Como on Daily and below timeframe and TD Sequential on Weekly chart.

I found the attached TD Sequential from MQL4 Community and it seems to stick to TD's original rules (i think). It also draws the TDST levels and matches the TDST levels as provided in this thread.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MAB_TD_Sequential.mq4   11 KB | 534 downloads
福 孠Victor V
  • #213
  • Nov 29, 2009 12:39pm Nov 29, 2009 12:39pm
Quoting 8800
Hi FoggyTrader,

I have been following this thread for a week and had traded with some positive results. I liked this system with its low risk trades. I have some doubts and hope you can clarify for me.

1. Do you only use the cureent day support and resistant lines for entry? Do you use earlier days S/R lines for referance or entry when you enter a trade?

2. Do you only use the first failure candle as entry candle disregarding any subsequent failure candles that follow, irrespective of the size of the first or following candles?

3. Do you...
Hello 8800,

Glad to hear you are getting something out of my thread,

To answer your first question, The reason I added the numbers to the counts (the big numbers below/above the TDST lines) is because I see them as a sequence. For example, lets say there are 3 TD buy setups giving us 3 TDST reisistance levels numbered obviously 1, 2 and 3. Lets then say number three and two are breached but number one has not been tested but then we get another TD buy setup giving us a new number 1 TDST resistance level. I then disregard the old number 1 and view the new number 1 as the start of a new trend/sequence. So to answer your question, I use the support/resistance lines if they are on the previous day so long as they are still part of the current sequence/trend. This is not part of DeMarks methods but my own as far as I can tell.

To answer your second question, yes, I only use the first candle not any other, this tells me that there is a clear failure.

To answer your third question, I only enter the bounce off the TDST support or resistance lines. There are a number of different ways to trade DeMark. If you wish to trade the close above TDST I would recommend that when you get a close above a resistance level I would look for a failure of the 9 bars high and if you get a close below the TDST support level I would look for a failure of the 9 bars low to go short. Personally, I don't really trade these kind of setups at present but they are there for sure.

I only really trade bounces off the TDST levels and try not to complicate things, why bother!

Hope this helps,

Cheers
Kevin
  • #214
  • Nov 29, 2009 1:28pm Nov 29, 2009 1:28pm
Quoting camvcvoo
Hi All,

Have been following this thread since the start of this thread. Personally, i'm a fan of TD Combo, TD Sequential and TDST.

I'm grateful to all contributors to this thread to make TDST trading alive. I've been following quietly and benefited from this thread. Thank you all.

However, i have the following personal issues which, i hope anyone of you can help me to overcome:

1. Can anyone suggest / help to move the wordings on the right side of the chart to the left side of the chart?

2. Can anyone upload the a version of the TD Combo indicator...
Hello camvcvoo,

To answer your first question, there is no point moving the data to the left hand side of the screen, then you can't really see it for bars on the chart and besides, thats where the history data appears when you use that function. Personally, I don't have the data showing until I have a setup then I change it to true, perhaps if having it on the right hand side of the chart is such a problem you could try doing that.

To answer your second question, I don't really understand what you mean, follow the original rules? The indicator I use follows DeMarks TD setup rules but doesn't give you the 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th bars. If someone can re-code the indicator to this feel free.

I have tried the indicator you have posted before, it gives me a sore head. Keep things simple!

Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #215
  • Nov 29, 2009 3:02pm Nov 29, 2009 3:02pm
Attached Image


AUDUSD

The Aussie bulls took control of this pair on the daily chart by breaching the upper BAT resistance level of 0.6843 on the 19th of March this year. Since this breach we have seen a rally of some 2500 points surpassing the 2nd Fibonacci target of 0.8447 by 958 points in the process. We have now also had 5 TD Sell setups along the way without testing the TDST support levels. Personally, I would argue that the bull trade is extremely overcrowded here and getting involved at current levels is not the play. However, I would need to see a break of the 0.8893 level before becoming involved on the bear side of this trade from a daily perspective.

The Aussie bulls also have control of this pair on the weekly chart since they surpassed the 0.7990 upper BAT resistance level on the week of the 24th of May this year and are currently protected all the way down to the 0.8033 level. Having come some 248 pips short of the first Fibonacci target of 0.9653 and posted a bearish outside bar formation two weeks ago it looks as though the bulls are going to have a fight on their hands. Last week I attempted to join the bears following the bearish outside bar however I see that opportunity as passed now and will wait for an opportunity to get involved from a daily perspective.

I will remain on the sidelines until the daily level of 0.8893 is breached.

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Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #216
  • Nov 29, 2009 3:22pm Nov 29, 2009 3:22pm
Attached Image



EURGBP


Although the bulls have control of this market all the way down to the 0.8229 level from a weekly perspective, the bears have made a significant statement by breaching the 0.8866 lower BAT support on the daily chart. In a situation where the daily break goes against the weekly bias I recommend trading the bounce of this break as I did two weeks ago by suggesting long trades up to the 61.8% retracement level. Price has now failed twice at the 50% retracement level and should we get a close below the last bullish thrusts low of 0.9037 we could see a move down to the 0.8477 level initially.

I will remain on the sidelines until the daily bullish thrusts low of 0.9037 is removed to a close or the upper daily BAT resistance of 0.9289 is breached.


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Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #217
  • Nov 29, 2009 3:46pm Nov 29, 2009 3:46pm
Attached Image



EURJPY


Having been under control of the bears on the weekly chart since August 2007 the bull’s break of the upper daily BAT resistance in March this year lacked any follow through. The bulls finally lost their last line of defence on Friday by losing the significant lower daily BAT support level of 129.42 and handing full control back to the bears. Although these are significant development in the longer-term picture one still can’t ignore the hammer formation posted on Friday therefore as we have had a breach of the lower BAT support but also a reaction I will attempt to take small longs this week up to the 50% retracement line at 133.02 while waiting for the low of a bullish thrust to be removed to a close at which point I will look to go short for a target of 119.29 initially.

I will attempt small longs up to the 133.02 level while I look for the low of a bullish thrust bar to be taken to a close.


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Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #218
  • Nov 29, 2009 3:58pm Nov 29, 2009 3:58pm
Attached Image



EURUSD


Since breaching the upper BAT resistance level of 1.3452 back in March of this year EURUSD has been in control of the bulls. The bullish outlook was also supported and confirmed following the removal of the weekly BAT resistance in MAY. Currently until we test either the daily TDST level of 1.4578 or the daily BAT support level of 1.4319 I will remain on sidelines for this pair.


I will remain on the sidelines here until we breach the lower BAT support Level of 1.4319


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Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #219
  • Nov 29, 2009 4:09pm Nov 29, 2009 4:09pm
Attached Image


GBPCHF

Since removing the BAT resistance level of 1.7096 last week the bulls have regained control here on the daily chart. However, unless the bulls can remove the 1.7940 weekly BAT resistance level, the bears will remain in overall control here. Following the removal of the daily level I took some short positions targeting the 61.8% retracement level at 1.6730. Those positions were closed out for a profit and I moved to the sidelines. Since then we have kept going and made two more bearish thrust candles. While the lower daily BAT support of 1.6181 holds I will look to buy a retest of the last bearish thrusts high at 1.6697 should this level be removed to a close targeting the 1.7723 level initially.


I will remain on the sidelines unless we close above 1.6697 or remove 1.6181


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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Cheers
Foggytrader
  • #220
  • Nov 29, 2009 4:24pm Nov 29, 2009 4:24pm
Attached Image


GBPJPY

 Since breaching the lower daily BAT support at 144.31 the bears took control of this pair on the daily chart. With bulls having control on the weekly chart it was a question of who was going to come out on top and I believe that has almost been decided with events last week. This has however come as no surprise with the bulls unable to remove the TDST resistance at 152.78 then failing to hold the 60 day SMA. On Friday morning the bears ran riot removing the TDST support level of 141.53 with ease while also removing the trend breakout point at 139.69. I see these developments as confirmation that the bears have taken full control of this market and have the weekly lower BAT support of 131.96 in their sights. Should this be broken we open up a move to sub-100 levels into 2010. Monday will see us on the 9th bar of a TD buy setup and after the hammer candle which was also a bounce from the TDST support level on Friday I would be happy to look for opportunities to go long despite my overall bearish stance however I will be using a tight daily stop while holding my other short position and adding to that at higher levels or the recapture of a bullish thrusts low to a close.

I will look for opportunities to add small long positions with tight stops while holding my short position and possibly adding to this at a higher level

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Cheers
Foggytrader
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