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Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #401
  • Nov 24, 2009 11:04am Nov 24, 2009 11:04am
as the daily ranges for different pairs expands and contracts has anyone experimented with using some fraction of ATR of X number of days instead of round numbers of 100 or 50?
  • #402
  • Nov 25, 2009 7:24am Nov 25, 2009 7:24am
I posted my thoughts on this one a few days ago page 24 #351, I have since traded this pair when it reached 0.9200 and currently at break even. I expect it to reach 0.9350 before meeting some resistance and I'm hopeful it will reach 0.9400 so that 100 pips profit can be locked in.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 25th nov.jpg Size: 127 KB
  • #403
  • Nov 25, 2009 7:30am Nov 25, 2009 7:30am
With regards to the last post, if I was a little more experienced using this method, I may have looked at 0.9050 as a point of support, watched price as it closed above the tendline and entered at 0.9150, however, that's experience I will learn and as each trade is recorded in a journal, I will look back at all of them and see if the percentages are in my favour, if so, then earlier entries will be incorporated into this method.
  • #404
  • Nov 25, 2009 7:43am Nov 25, 2009 7:43am
Quoting Xj8
With regards to the last post, if I was a little more experienced using this method, I may have looked at 0.9050 as a point of support, watched price as it closed above the tendline and entered at 0.9150, however, that's experience I will learn and as each trade is recorded in a journal, I will look back at all of them and see if the percentages are in my favour, if so, then earlier entries will be incorporated into this method.
Hi XJ8,

I think this is an important point – building experience and confidence are both vital on the path to becoming a trader.

It is also important to be aware of how price reacts to your level when it gets there – if you have a trendline that has been respected in the past and price stalls when it gets there you can be relatively confident that it is time to get in a trade. If however price slams straight through it then you may want to reconsider. This is an important part of the method in my opinion.

I don’t really pay attention to candle closes - although I used to. I used to watch for candlestick formations at these levels as well but I found (for me) that watching for a price bounce (as we have talked about in the past) is good enough to get in a trade.

I am in on the A/U trade, long from 0.9100 after the rejection of the trendline (as per the attached chart).

Congratulations on your trade by the way!

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-11-25_1330_AU.png Size: 36 KB
  • #405
  • Edited 8:33am Nov 25, 2009 8:02am | Edited 8:33am
Hi Dan,

Thanks for your thoughts, looking at the charts I can see why you got in at 0.9100, I'll watch more closely in future, one day I'll be fast on the draw like you, in the meantime, I'll let my confidence build up at a sedate pace and monitor your reasoning a little longer, perhaps 2010 will see me at your level of confidence with this system.
  • #406
  • Nov 25, 2009 8:11am Nov 25, 2009 8:11am
Me too. Still trying to trade like you. Your style so far is simple and you kept it simple. Had I done the same instead of expecting the market to go where I wanted it to go, I would be happily making pips!
today it seems like i missed out on opportunities like AUDUSD, EURUSD and GBPUSD.

-___-

Hopefully 2010 will not see me repeating the same mistakes, else....shoot me!
  • #407
  • Nov 25, 2009 9:22am Nov 25, 2009 9:22am
same here got in at 0.9200 will need to be a bit sharper still at break even now.
  • #408
  • Nov 25, 2009 12:31pm Nov 25, 2009 12:31pm
relax, you are not alone.

Quoting herzog21
today it seems like i missed out on opportunities like AUDUSD, EURUSD and GBPUSD.
  • #409
  • Nov 25, 2009 4:56pm Nov 25, 2009 4:56pm
Quoting coolshades
relax, you are not alone.

yes, really, got in gu and au yesterday (demo), and not in eu, but for me it's ok, when I looked at the eu charts I didn't see any reason to enter a trade, so I'm perfectly comfortable with my decision even if the price skyrocketed over 1.51

remember, there will be a lot of other moves like these in the future, you don't have to grab every pip that the market is offering
  • #410
  • Nov 26, 2009 3:59am Nov 26, 2009 3:59am
what are your guys thoughts on trading today and tomorrow?

Watching with interest as AUSUSD is coming back to support line...
  • #411
  • Nov 26, 2009 5:25am Nov 26, 2009 5:25am
Quoting bluehorizon
what are your guys thoughts on trading today and tomorrow?

Watching with interest as AUSUSD is coming back to support line...
Hi,

My A/U trade closed today for +100 pips and I will be looking at re-entering today; I am thinking about 0.9200.

My E/U trade came within 3 pips of it's life this morning so I haven't got any plans on that unless price heads back down - in which case my first area of interest will be the 1.4950 - 1.5000 area.

Regards,

Dan
  • #412
  • Nov 26, 2009 8:20am Nov 26, 2009 8:20am
Quoting DanUK
Hi,

My A/U trade closed today for +100 pips and I will be looking at re-entering today; I am thinking about 0.9200.

My E/U trade came within 3 pips of it's life this morning so I haven't got any plans on that unless price heads back down - in which case my first area of interest will be the 1.4950 - 1.5000 area.

Regards,

Dan
Hi Dan, I'm thinking about entering A/U at 0.9200 with a stop loss of 100pips. If the trade goes against us we have the choice of applying the AH i.e. if price goes down to 0.9000-0.9050 area we could enter an AH order to go long at 0.9100. Support is currently at 0.9100, so at which point would you call this a break of trend rather than applying the AH? Do you trade trend breaks?
  • #413
  • Nov 26, 2009 8:39am Nov 26, 2009 8:39am
Quoting DanUK
Hi,

My A/U trade closed today for +100 pips and I will be looking at re-entering today; I am thinking about 0.9200.

My E/U trade came within 3 pips of it's life this morning so I haven't got any plans on that unless price heads back down - in which case my first area of interest will be the 1.4950 - 1.5000 area.

Regards,

Dan

Hi Dan,

Is this what your are seeing personally?

If it breaks 1.4950 would you be looking to enter anywhere between 1.4850 - 1.4900?

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 42 KB
  • #414
  • Nov 26, 2009 1:02pm Nov 26, 2009 1:02pm
anyone considering E/U 1.5 long, problem is not enough PA at the moment to rely on, since US markets are closed.
  • #415
  • Nov 26, 2009 8:16pm Nov 26, 2009 8:16pm
I was in this trade earlier in the week, this system allowed me to get to break even where it exited, as price moved further down, I placed an order to re-enter at 0.9200, once price moved away from this to 0.9150, I canceled the trade and sat back from it until it settled and gave me a better signal to enter at a more solid level.

Once price broke through 0.9150 where I had a long term trendline (based on a daily chart) buy trades were not an option for me. I will wait for another opportunity to buy.

Looking at the chart as I type this, the level at 0.9000 has a 50% retrace, round number and a downward sloping trendline, previous resistance which has since proven to be current support, but not a trendline I would put any faith in to at the moment. Looking at that massive move down has encouraged me to take the rest of the week off.

I may be letting an opportunity pass me buy here, but there will be more trades along the way that I will feel more comfortable taking.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 27th nov.jpg Size: 117 KB
  • #416
  • Edited 8:29pm Nov 26, 2009 8:25pm | Edited 8:29pm
Quoting bazooki
anyone considering E/U 1.5 long, problem is not enough PA at the moment to rely on, since US markets are closed.
I realise your post was 7 hours before this submission and you would have recalibrated by now, this is my view as price has since unfolded.

The latest push down has made me look at a fib from 3rd November to the most recent swing high at 25th November, giving a 50% fib at 1.4883, daily trendline passes through this at approx 1.4900, the confluence of the round number, 50% fib and trendline has made me look at 1.4900 as a probable area for price to stumble, whereby I would be looking at 1.4950 as an entry, I would definately like to see price hit one of these barriers first.

Just my take.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 27th nov.jpg Size: 115 KB
  • #417
  • Nov 26, 2009 8:40pm Nov 26, 2009 8:40pm
Gu is still sketchy, I still think a buy trade is the order of the day with this currency pair, I'm looking at 1.6300 where there are two barriers but the trendline is some distance away, I would like this to be closer. The arrow indicates the 4th - 9th December would have all three converging at the same point, so I'll leave this pair until then, hopefully price will fall into my trap (I wish) and give me the perfect setup around that date.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 27th nov.jpg Size: 108 KB
  • #418
  • Edited 9:33pm Nov 26, 2009 9:18pm | Edited 9:33pm
Quoting Xj8
I realise your post was 7 hours before this submission and you would have recalibrated by now, this is my view as price has since unfolded....
yes, japan sold everything they could sell right at the session open. i think your view is just fine. although i'm not sure about your daily trend line, couldn't find more points of support, other than those 2 in your chart. edit: sorry, found more points of support bit further away march + april

A/U: i'm watching 0.8900-0.8950 support
  • #419
  • Nov 26, 2009 9:52pm Nov 26, 2009 9:52pm
Quoting Xj8
Gu is still sketchy, ... so I'll leave this pair until then, hopefully price will fall into my trap (I wish) and give me the perfect setup around that date.
I like your 50 But if it falls, Your Daily TL will be useless.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU originaly posted by XJ8.JPG Size: 117 KB
  • #420
  • Nov 27, 2009 7:02am Nov 27, 2009 7:02am
Quoting Bemac
I like your 50 But if it falls, Your Daily TL will be useless.
Attachment
I understand your logic, but I think price can be a bit more predictable than we give credit. There is a probability that price will indeed push through the 50% fib I have in place, possibly breach the trendline (but not by much) then I expect it to retrace back to around 1.6500 and again retest 1.6300 and the longer term trendline, somewhere in the vicinity of 4th - 9th December, only once it does this will I consider a trade at 1.6350, it's too early at this stage.

GU could be in free fall, if so, there's nothing to stop the bears to push for 1.5750. It's really just a waiting game to see what price does when it reaches a particular level, then apply your trading plan.

Anyway, I've posted a chart predicting what I think may happen, again it's only an assumption, but the real deal is to wait and see what happens as price unfolds.

If anyone out there has and knows how to use a crystal ball, I'm sure we would all appreciate the sharing part, until then, it's all best possible guess.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 27th b nov.jpg Size: 110 KB
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