Attachments: DeMark TDST Trading

DeMark TDST Trading

#141
Nov 24, 2009 7:50am Nov 24, 2009 7:50am

foggyTrader
| Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Always look at both scenarios | 640 Posts

Quoting foggyTrader

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GBPJPY

My first attempt to add to my shorts was stopped out earlier and from that mini rally the bulls had a go at the 146.93 TDST resistance level and failed. I am now short at the low of the failure candle - 1 pip 146.82 stoploss at 147.19.

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Cheers
Foggytrader

Ignored

I am using a quick stop on this one as we have hit the closest TDST support level and made another TDST resistance level now at 146.98 which offers a fresh opportunity to add short positions. Considering these developments It may range around for a bit now.

Cheers
Foggytrader

#142
Nov 24, 2009 8:13am Nov 24, 2009 8:13am

foggyTrader
| Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Always look at both scenarios | 640 Posts

Quoting FXSnipe

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Such stop outs should be expected from time to time but key is to hold on to winning positions to come out a winner at the end. to me this is a very good system as the stop loss levels are very tiny in comparison to the expected payoff. Foggy trader what is the maximum number positions you've added ever since you traded this sytem

Ignored

Well it just depends really, last year saw a massive shakeup in the position of money around the world and brought about moves that had never been seen before and may not be seen again. Like so many others I would presume, there was really an embarrassment of riches trading forex last year. You would take a signal with a long-term target and it was hit before you got up in the morning. I would say I can remember having four short positions in GBPJPY at one point which met my target in a couple of days and in the grand scheme of things my target looked small after the move. However, I don’t think we will be so lucky this year, I think patience will be the name of the game but I do think I can build up several positions on several pairs and get the rewards. Although as I say things may not be so fast this year so I am looking into other ways of taking shorter-term profits and I will keep everyone posted and if anyone else has any other ideas I would welcome some input.

Cheers
Foggytrader

#143
Nov 24, 2009 8:21am Nov 24, 2009 8:21am

foggyTrader
| Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Always look at both scenarios | 640 Posts

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AUDUSD

I have been looking for a good opportunity to short AUDUSD and I just caught this one. Good signal though and only 12 pips risk, I got in with 14 pips risk at 0.9211.

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Cheers
Foggytrader

#144
Nov 24, 2009 10:30am Nov 24, 2009 10:30am

foggyTrader
| Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Always look at both scenarios | 640 Posts

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GBPJPY

Here we go again folk’s, there is a plethora of TDST counts for this pair today which tells me there is a bit of a battle going on between the bulls and the bears. Another failure at a TDST resistance level so the setup can't be ignored, let’s hope the market is telling us something and with only 22 pips risk it is a reasonable risk/reward situation where GBPJPY is concerned. Tight stops are still the name of the game here though and I will monitor this one carefully.

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For anyone who is interested, if I get time tonight I plan to look at all the entries made today using my risk 2% take 7% strategy and I will post the results with some commentary sometime this evening.

Cheers
Foggytrader

#145
Nov 24, 2009 12:39pm Nov 24, 2009 12:39pm

FXSnipe
| Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Spot FX Trader | 126 Posts

foggytrader, please do post your results. I do think that one can scalp a few pips everytime a signal is seen and let anoher posiiton run

#146
Nov 24, 2009 2:06pm Nov 24, 2009 2:06pm

foggyTrader
| Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Always look at both scenarios | 640 Posts

Quoting FXSnipe

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foggytrader, please do post your results. I do think that one can scalp a few pips everytime a signal is seen and let anoher posiiton run

Ignored

Please find below the profit and loss since I started the thread. I have blacked out certain aspects for privacy but you can still check all my entries to see if there is any better way to mange the trades.

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Hope this helps,

Cheers
Foggytrader

#147
Nov 24, 2009 3:34pm Nov 24, 2009 3:34pm

foggyTrader
| Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Always look at both scenarios | 640 Posts

Money Management Experiment

As I have mentioned in previous posts today, I am looking into changing my MM approach to trading the TDST DeMark method. I have been looking into a strategy based on using a certain percentage of your account to determine targets as opposed to having to choose entries based on technical analysis. The rules are as follows:

Entry is using the DeMark 5 Minute

Risk 2%
Reward 1st unit 2%
Reward 2nd unit 5%
Move to breakeven once 1st unit is closed

I have looked back through all my entries since I began the thread and got some promising results. I have attached the excel sheet for everyone’s perusal. Please go through each entry, and check my calculations to make sure I am not missing something. The success of this obviously depends on choosing the direction to take on each pair but so far I seem to have done an ok job at that, but perhaps using my long-term targets are wrong. You can check through the thread and see where I said only to look for certain directions on each pair and they will all match. I would appreciate anyone’s input here as I think it shows promiss.

Cheers
Foggytrader

Attached File(s)

2% 5%.zip 10 KB | 413 downloads

#148
Nov 25, 2009 1:29am Nov 25, 2009 1:29am

foggyTrader
| Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Always look at both scenarios | 640 Posts

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AUDUSD - Looking for selling opportunities

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EURGBP - On the Sidelines

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EURJPY - On the Sidelines

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EURUSD - On the Sidelines

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GBPCHF - On the Sidelines

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GBPJPY - Looking for selling opportunities

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GBPUSD - Looking for Buying opportunities

#149
Nov 25, 2009 1:30am Nov 25, 2009 1:30am

foggyTrader
| Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Always look at both scenarios | 640 Posts

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USDCAD - Looking for Buying Opportunities

Cheers
Foggytrader

#150
Nov 25, 2009 1:50am Nov 25, 2009 1:50am

FXSnipe
| Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Spot FX Trader | 126 Posts

Quoting foggyTrader

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Please find below the profit and loss since I started the thread. I have blacked out certain aspects for privacy but you can still check all my entries to see if there is any better way to mange the trades.

Attachment

Attachment

Hope this helps,

Cheers
Foggytrader

Ignored

Foggytrader,
Thanks for sending this through , these results are impressive I will have a look at the spreadhseet you have sent, It would not be a good idea to commnet on how best to manage the trades at this stage as I still need to look at this strategy in more detail. I will give you feed abck on the spreadsheet in due course

#151
Nov 25, 2009 1:57am Nov 25, 2009 1:57am

foggyTrader
| Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Always look at both scenarios | 640 Posts

Quoting FXSnipe

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Foggytrader,
Thanks for sending this through , these results are impressive I will have a look at the spreadhseet you have sent, It would not be a good idea to commnet on how best to manage the trades at this stage as I still need to look at this strategy in more detail. I will give you feed abck on the spreadsheet in due course

Ignored

Well, its a long process and the open p/l will change so its not impressive as of yet, but it should be in due course.

Cheers
Foggytrader

#152
Nov 25, 2009 2:12am Nov 25, 2009 2:12am

foggyTrader
| Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Always look at both scenarios | 640 Posts

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GBPJPY

As I am looking to for selling opportunities on this pair I have identified TDST resistance levels on the 5 minute at 147.85 and the 15 minute at 147.88 level while the 60 day SMA is also located at 147.87. With this area showing up on several timeframes I see a failure here as an ideal opportunity to take a short position.

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Cheers
Foggytrader

#153
Nov 25, 2009 4:06am Nov 25, 2009 4:06am

foggyTrader
| Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Always look at both scenarios | 640 Posts

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GBPJPY

We came some 20 pips short of the prefered selling level before the bears pilled in here. The first chart below show GBPJPY daily and it illustrates that the bears are defending the 60 day SMA. However, the weakness is coming through from USDJPY which it should be noted has just gone through daily TDST support at 88.34 and is on the 9th bar of a bearish exhaustion sequence as shown in the second chart below.

So should USDJPY close back above the 88.34 TDST support tonight I will be attempting small longs in that pair. While with GBP looking bullish against the CHF (daily), EUR (daily) USD (daily & weekly) and JPY (weekly) we may not get much follow through from here.

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I will keep you posted,

Cheers
Foggytrader

#154
Nov 25, 2009 4:11am Nov 25, 2009 4:11am

FXSnipe
| Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Spot FX Trader | 126 Posts

Quoting foggyTrader

Disliked

Attachment

GBPJPY

As I am looking to for selling opportunities on this pair I have identified TDST resistance levels on the 5 minute at 147.85 and the 15 minute at 147.88 level while the 60 day SMA is also located at 147.87. With this area showing up on several timeframes I see a failure here as an ideal opportunity to take a short position.

Attachment

Cheers
Foggytrader

Ignored

Cool analyis, it looks like price failed at 147.65, about 20 pips fro your level, this one passed me by

#155
Nov 25, 2009 4:22am Nov 25, 2009 4:22am

fxtaiko
| Commercial User | Joined Jul 2009 | 174 Posts

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#156
Nov 25, 2009 4:24am Nov 25, 2009 4:24am

fxtaiko
| Commercial User | Joined Jul 2009 | 174 Posts

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#157
Nov 25, 2009 4:33am Nov 25, 2009 4:33am

foggyTrader
| Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Always look at both scenarios | 640 Posts

Quoting fxtaiko

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Ignored

Nice entries Fxtaiko,

Personally I don't take TD buy and sell setups, but it is another way to use the DeMark indicator. I guess based on my analysis I could also take TD setups but I am sure there are many false signals. Once price makes a TD setup the retracement tends to be brief then it heads back in that direction which is why I then trade the bounce from that level as it gives us confirmation.

By all means, check back and post you findings, thanks, good trading

Perhaps with the entries you took the exit partial profit level should be the TDST support levels on both charts.

Cheers
Foggytrader

#158
Nov 25, 2009 5:13am Nov 25, 2009 5:13am

foggyTrader
| Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Always look at both scenarios | 640 Posts

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USDCAD

Looking at the daily chart of USDCAD tell me that the bulls have not lost their battle yet. I am still happy to look for long positions at present levels to add to my lonely one position left. I would only change my view once the bullish thrust/outside bar of 12/11/09 has its low removed at which point I will stay on the sidelines until the lower TDST support at 1.0263 and the lower daily BAT support of 1.0175 levels are challenged.

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