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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #208,401
  • Nov 23, 2009 3:02pm Nov 23, 2009 3:02pm
wedge formation ? possible break lower ,after the completion of the 5th wave? similar to all jpy crosses.
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  • #208,402
  • Nov 23, 2009 3:14pm Nov 23, 2009 3:14pm
on down side GU most see 1.6300 , by now there is sell pressure on GJ , on the upside 149.5x is still available for GJ
Making money not by predicting just by following ...
  • #208,403
  • Edited 3:30pm Nov 23, 2009 3:19pm | Edited 3:30pm
Yeah, I hear you with the hold coin toss thing.. I know Karmo looks at the Gann Hi Lo indicator to determine Directon...if price is below he only goes short and its above he only goes long. I also heard a Trader from Goldman say he only goes long for his clients, if price is above a 90 sma, or vise versa goes short for his clients if price is below a 90 sma.. All that being said, I am more incline to go with what you suggest. a coin toss.

Best of Succes to you with your short.

Quoting ewokuk
i have no idea, its been a coin toss to guess the direction for the last 6 weeks. but im already short and i wouldnt be going long from here either so im staying short. hopefully the asians do their job and push it back down
  • #208,404
  • Nov 23, 2009 3:21pm Nov 23, 2009 3:21pm
Quoting gl4di4t0r
on down side GU most see 1.6300 , by now there is sell pressure on GJ , on the upside 149.5x is still available for GJ
where have you been hiden?
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #208,405
  • Nov 23, 2009 3:23pm Nov 23, 2009 3:23pm
possible H&S formation on 30 min on eur/jpy.

srry to discuss the eur/jpy in gbpy/jpy section,but all jpy crosses in similar situation.
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  • #208,406
  • Nov 23, 2009 4:03pm Nov 23, 2009 4:03pm
Quoting donfriday
where have you been hiden?
hey don , how r u? , i was in trouble in this last few month.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...60#post3251760
Making money not by predicting just by following ...
  • #208,407
  • Nov 23, 2009 5:49pm Nov 23, 2009 5:49pm
gj1h
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  • #208,408
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:25pm Nov 23, 2009 6:25pm
before you ask sinner, i have no analysis for the bond yields today. Either my platform is acting up with badly misquoted figures or there is some really strange shit happening on the bond market that's making any analysis practically impossible.

On my platform (can't guarantee accuracy today)
2 yr bond yield in the last 2 hours has 36 bps range [0.73% , 1.09%] and its still wildly jumping all over the park.
  • #208,409
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:30pm Nov 23, 2009 6:30pm
Quoting Eulogy
before you ask sinner, i have no analysis for the bond yields today. Either my platform is acting up with badly misquoted figures or there is some really strange shit happening on the bond market that's making any analysis practically impossible.

On my platform (can't guarantee accuracy today)
2 yr bond yield in the last 2 hours has 36 bps range [0.73% , 1.09%] and its still wildly jumping all over the park.
Could be the fact that the Fed sold USD44bln in 2Y notes last night at 0.802 with a bid:cover of 3.1?
  • #208,410
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:47pm Nov 23, 2009 6:47pm
Quoting sinner-
Could be the fact that the Fed sold USD44bln in 2Y notes last night at 0.802 with a bid:cover of 3.1?
not really sure, it really depends on how much of that $44b the Fed monetised itself through its funny-money printouts. Typically with a B/C at 3.1 at such a low yield i would have expected the effect of the volatility range on the yields to be on the downside rather than the upside. I'm thinking it had more to do with the 3m ounces gold option expiry yesterday.
  • #208,411
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:51pm Nov 23, 2009 6:51pm
Quoting Eulogy
not really sure, it really depends on how much of that $44b the Fed monetised itself through its funny-money printouts. Typically with a B/C at 3.1 at such a low yield i would have expected the effect of the volatility range on the yields to be on the downside rather than the upside. I'm thinking it had more to do with the 3m ounces gold option expiry yesterday.
Yes is there any word on whether those calls were cashed in at the exchange for USD or delivery requested? I can't find anything.
  • #208,412
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:51pm Nov 23, 2009 6:51pm
Congrads Man. your patience is paying off on your Short. I could take a page from your book... Awesome Job!

Quoting ewokuk
shit! tried to open a short on gcad and opened it on gj instead at 147.75.
  • #208,413
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:57pm Nov 23, 2009 6:57pm
can we have a possible discuss on the H&S pattern on weekly ? neckline @139 and possible break would tumble the gbp/jpy to 127 and further out. anyone who got the same view?
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  • #208,414
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:01pm Nov 23, 2009 7:01pm
Quoting sinner-
Yes is there any word on whether those calls were cashed in at the exchange for USD or delivery requested? I can't find anything.
doubt it, those options (if they existed) were never in-the-money and since it was the last day there was literally no time value in them either.
  • #208,415
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:11pm Nov 23, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting Eulogy
doubt it, those options (if they existed) were never in-the-money and since it was the last day there was literally no time value in them either.
Quoting Eulogy
doubt it, those options (if they existed) were never in-the-money and since it was the last day there was literally no time value in them either.
But I heard talk yesterday of them being bought heavily despite being OTM? i.e. people were willing to pay 1200 for gold delivery? I think if that business with the tungsten gold plated bars is true then it's possible SOMEONE is willing to pay 1200 for delivery of real gold. Also heard of heavy buying on March 1300 and June 1500 calls?

Yesterday was a really weird day and my thinking is along the lines of China bought gold out of NZ fairly heavily. But I have no basis for that claim other than the "Tokyo on hols - gold went up" routine and talk on the wire of China buying NZDUSD.
  • #208,416
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:15pm Nov 23, 2009 7:15pm
Quoting ewokuk
told you 148.25

this damn thing had better get its arse back down towards 147 now or i will not be happy, already screwed myself out of 50 pips by shorting gj at 147.75 instead of gcad (infact its 100 pips cos gcad did actually drop 50 pips from when i shorted it so ive lost 50 from that, and ended up -50 on gj instead, great!!)
Glad it worked out for you - it hit 147.1 ~15 min ago, will go up a little and then may drop further. I had a pending short @ 147.9, and cancelled it prior to having leave home, chickening out. Would have been a nice, safe & patternable ~80 pips.
  • #208,417
  • Nov 23, 2009 8:00pm Nov 23, 2009 8:00pm
Quoting Gucc
can we have a possible discuss on the H&S pattern on weekly ? neckline @139 and possible break would tumble the gbp/jpy to 127 and further out. anyone who got the same view?

yes .... 100 % agree .. 2010 to 2011 things could get ungly ...

1,4000 is my call gu JUne 2010
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #208,418
  • Nov 23, 2009 8:07pm Nov 23, 2009 8:07pm
Quoting malcolmb14
yes .... 100 % agree .. 2010 to 2011 things could get ungly ...

1,4000 is my call gu JUne 2010
Maybe a lot earlier
If we look at the monthly cycle, USD tends to strengthen by the end of year till March.
  • #208,419
  • Nov 23, 2009 11:42pm Nov 23, 2009 11:42pm
Quoting mktjong
Maybe a lot earlier
If we look at the monthly cycle, USD tends to strengthen by the end of year till March.
is the main culprit atm...
  • #208,420
  • Nov 23, 2009 11:42pm Nov 23, 2009 11:42pm
ANY PREDICTIONS??
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
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