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Pivots and Trends with the JPY

  • #81
  • Nov 23, 2009 8:00am Nov 23, 2009 8:00am
the market didn't like the green numbers I guess, but I'm not a good fundamentalist anyways, this e/u is overbought but still fighting to hit a higher note, I'm short and will add if it goes higher, we will see where this go
The Chonchy
  • #82
  • Nov 23, 2009 8:04am Nov 23, 2009 8:04am
the national economist association is releasing the outlook fro 2010 in a few minutes, and gold keeps skyrockeeting, as long as gold keep raising e/u will keep going up, and the swisse down, I may short the u/chf if this continue
The Chonchy
  • #83
  • Nov 23, 2009 8:07am Nov 23, 2009 8:07am
Quoting Islander
Hi - are you talking about the Canadian Retail Sales? - I have the only US data as the Home Sales at 10am est
8:30am CAD
Core Retail Sales m/m
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif 1.1%
0.4%0.7%http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/m...us_revised.gif
8:30am CAD
Core Retail Sales m/m
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif 1.1%
0.4%0.7%http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/m...us_revised.gif


no wonder the dollar didn't go no where is the canadian retail sales, wow this nyquill is killing me, I should stop trading or drinking it
The Chonchy
  • #84
  • Nov 23, 2009 8:08am Nov 23, 2009 8:08am
yes Islander at 10:00 is the other news so sorry, excuse my fllu confusion with the retail number, won't happen again
The Chonchy
  • #85
  • Nov 23, 2009 8:14am Nov 23, 2009 8:14am
this is what I was talking earlier, price embarced to the R2 a while ago and it took some time to get there but here is only a few pips from it
The Chonchy
  • #86
  • Nov 23, 2009 8:20am Nov 23, 2009 8:20am
Quoting knuckledrag
Oil may come back to the 74 aria or even break below-----and Gold needs to retest 1120. Not that any of this will happen this week but its always a possibility.

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both trades are good knuckles gold at 1169 is a good sale, it must retrace to that 120 level, and oil should move back too, a disapointing home sales is not going to do it, but some cook numbers will, we will see
The Chonchy
  • #87
  • Nov 23, 2009 8:21am Nov 23, 2009 8:21am
where do you see oil going firstboss?
The Chonchy
  • #88
  • Nov 23, 2009 9:13am Nov 23, 2009 9:13am
it hit that pivot up there and is coming down with the green numbers, let see where we are going 45xx or some where in there, je, je, I wish, I have a small short from the hit of that pivot at 4998
The Chonchy
  • #89
  • Nov 23, 2009 4:07pm Nov 23, 2009 4:07pm
Quoting chonchy
where do you see oil going firstboss?
Boss? If you were talking to me, well its to late now. Just keep in mind that gas production has been reduced because of lack of demand. Oil may keep going up on speculation but the refineries are slowing production (some news story I didn't bookmark) so the demand is down in the US.
  • #90
  • Nov 23, 2009 5:19pm Nov 23, 2009 5:19pm
Quoting knuckledrag
Boss? If you were talking to me, well its to late now. Just keep in mind that gas production has been reduced because of lack of demand. Oil may keep going up on speculation but the refineries are slowing production (some news story I didn't bookmark) so the demand is down in the US.
Boss, yes you are my boss, but Firstboss is a fellow trader, my friend too, that is a member of the "elite" group and was here yesterday posting when i asking about the oil but it looks like he was gone by then, he will be back later, so here is a new day with my flu with me, he don't want's to leave me, tomorrow I'm going straight to the doctor to see what is going on.

Central is at the 1.4959, with daily Pivot point at 1.4929, %K and price looks like it want's to go down but small time frames are in discrepancy so until this two guys don't setle this discrepancys price is going to be hovering around the central and M3 to the up side and from central to the PP to the down side, if price enbarc to the M3 pivot, the trade is to go long to the M3 4978, take parcial profit there, or all and see what is going to do next, if it enbarcs to the PP the trade will be there to the 4929 and just take profit there, practice like that and then maybe you can ride all the way to the other stops with practice, and analising the bounces, good luck guys

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The Chonchy
  • #91
  • Nov 23, 2009 5:55pm Nov 23, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting chonchy
Boss, yes you are my boss, but Firstboss is a fellow trader, my friend too, that is a member of the "elite" group and was here yesterday posting when i asking about the oil but it looks like he was gone by then, he will be back later, so here is a new day with my flu with me, he don't want's to leave me, tomorrow I'm going straight to the doctor to see what is going on.

Central is at the 1.4959, with daily Pivot point at 1.4929, %K and price looks like it want's to go down but small time frames are in discrepancy so until this two guys don't...


Go to bed. Your a man (act like a baby and get the wife to wait on you) not a trading god. We'll be fine until your better. I'm still short and long all over the place----.
Go get some rest, if its the crap going around here, your going to feel like crap for about a week and a half. Sorry
  • #92
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:16pm Nov 23, 2009 6:16pm
Quoting knuckledrag
Go get some rest, if its the crap going around here, your going to feel like crap for about a week and a half. Sorry
Ditto that. I made the mistake of trying to trade through the crud all last week and I was fortunate to finish at break-even...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #93
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:22pm Nov 23, 2009 6:22pm
Quoting The Fool
Ditto that. I made the mistake of trying to trade through the crud all last week and I was fortunate to finish at break-even...
I haven't had it yet. The wife had it two weeks ago. I keep telling her the alcohol content in her blood is to low.

You know what they say----an ounce of prevention............
  • #94
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:32pm Nov 23, 2009 6:32pm
Quoting knuckledrag
I haven't had it yet. The wife had it two weeks ago. I keep telling her the alcohol content in her blood is to low.

You know what they say----an ounce of prevention............
oh man is so bad that I went to the dentist with my doughter and they needed to check me out too and I could not get in because I started on one of thos crissis coughfing and coughfing that I had to get out of there, anyways I being short from the 4996 and add here at 4950 if it retrace at the 4929 PP I'll add some more, good luck
The Chonchy
  • #95
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:34pm Nov 23, 2009 6:34pm
Quoting The Fool
Ditto that. I made the mistake of trying to trade through the crud all last week and I was fortunate to finish at break-even...
ain't nothing worst than working like this, is so frustrating, but......we are workaholics
The Chonchy
  • #96
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:44pm Nov 23, 2009 6:44pm
Quoting chonchy
oh man is so bad that I went to the dentist with my doughter and they needed to check me out too and I could not get in because I started on one of thos crissis coughfing and coughfing that I had to get out of there, anyways I being short from the 4996 and add here at 4950 if it retrace at the 4929 PP I'll add some more, good luck


Shot and long the EUR------swing on the GBP. Presently short------

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  • #97
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:47pm Nov 23, 2009 6:47pm
Quoting chonchy
ain't nothing worst than working like this, is so frustrating, but......we are workaholics
If you're really sick better to step away from the chalupa, Carlos. It will be here for you when you are ready. Hope you get well quick!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #98
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:50pm Nov 23, 2009 6:50pm
Quoting The Fool
If you're really sick better to step away from the chalupa, Carlos. It will be here for you when you are ready. Hope you get well quick!

Dido, go whine and get the wife to rub your feet.
  • #99
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:57pm Nov 23, 2009 6:57pm
the low power of the hour is going to make dificult to pass the EMA at 4920, but asia at 8.00 may have a puch to take it to the next pivot, I'm taking profit at the 4929 and then reenter at the retrace if it retrace if not I will just enter when I can for the next 4895 M2 we will see how this develop

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The Chonchy
  • #100
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:03pm Nov 23, 2009 7:03pm
Quoting chonchy
where do you see oil going firstboss?
Well, I see 2 possibilities with oil: it will go up, but if not - it will go down :-)

Seriously speaking, imho, there is a bullish candle formation on the WEEKLY chart below:

I see here that the price went north through a historically significant level, as well as the first fibo retracement level, and formed four squeezed candles (that's my unofficial term :-) ) right above these levels.
This tells me that a new momentum is being built above these new support levels.
Therefore, I'll dare to name the oil price between $80 and $90 in the coming weeks.

As for fundamental considerations that knuckledrag mentioned - even though the demand is lower in the US right now, it is growing considerably in China. Also, I am not looking at this as oil getting more expensive - it's the USD getting cheaper against currencies, commodities, and stocks.
In other words, oil price looks stable in other currencies.
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"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
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