Trend Trading Chart Thread | Page 20 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Are you a trend trader or a counter-trend trader? 29 replies

Trading bounces off daily chart trend lines 13 replies

Trend trading with 55EMAs on the Daily Chart 10 replies

Is Grid Trading (combined trend following and counter trend) Profitable? 3 replies

Attachments: Trend Trading Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #381
  • Nov 20, 2009 1:54pm Nov 20, 2009 1:54pm
ok, interesting. have a look at euraud. by my reckoning we should have a 6200 short entry early next week (assuming!)

have a good w/e all.


Quoting Xj8
In a nutshell comes to mind. The other point regarding three hits, I'm not sure what I was referring to, could have been relevant to the post regarding the trendline or other barrier, I'll have to backtrack to find that point to give you a better answer. And yes 0.9200 is a probability for AUD/USD depending on what happens when it gets there, where I have marked, using your crosshair on MT4 it shows that confluence would occur on or around 24th/25th.
  • #382
  • Nov 20, 2009 2:10pm Nov 20, 2009 2:10pm
Quoting coolshades
ok, interesting. have a look at euraud. by my reckoning we should have a 6200 short entry early next week (assuming!)

have a good w/e all.
I never look at this pair, at your invitation I opened the chart and will give you my thoughts.

Price has already passed through the trendline on the third time of asking and is now acting as support, had 1.6200 held along with the 50% and round number then I would have had an order to sell at 1.6150. It's gone too far through to consider this now. I don't see another setup past this one at the moment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro aud picture 1.jpg Size: 86 KB
  • #383
  • Nov 20, 2009 3:23pm Nov 20, 2009 3:23pm
yes, i'm leaning towards down myself, perhaps a little rally at start of next week, then down!?

A-Us partner in crime, E-U (daily), is also looking like it wants to roll

Quoting Xj8
I notice that 3 hits off a trendline can be common, when price moves towards a trendline for the third time it will respect it on most occassions (about 70%) and move away from it, the fourth time it will break or weaken it, and very rarely will a fifth attempt hold it. I think this trendline is about to go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 211109-2.gif Size: 48 KB
  • #384
  • Nov 21, 2009 12:33pm Nov 21, 2009 12:33pm
We have a solid foundation support @ 1.4800 in regards to the EURO/USD.

Our highs are getting lower, and lower, and forming a descending triangle

If this breaks 1.4800 - I think the EURO will free fall of its ascending major TL, just like the pound did recently break out.

Oh yeah, ignore that buy!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro21freefall.jpg Size: 107 KB
  • #385
  • Nov 21, 2009 10:50pm Nov 21, 2009 10:50pm
"Trade what you see not what you think"
eur/usd is still bullish. Dont sell a bull until you KNOW its a bear. There is a reason you follow the trend and dont try to predict the market.
I also think that 1.4700 is the support that needs to be broken before you think about selling. However it was broken only a few weeks ago by almost 100pips but went right back up(false breakout).
Just a thought to be better safe than sorry
  • #386
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:54pm Nov 22, 2009 1:54pm
Quoting Pipscalibur
"Trade what you see not what you think"
eur/usd is still bullish. Dont sell a bull until you KNOW its a bear. There is a reason you follow the trend and dont try to predict the market.
I also think that 1.4700 is the support that needs to be broken before you think about selling. However it was broken only a few weeks ago by almost 100pips but went right back up(false breakout).
Just a thought to be better safe than sorry
I'm 50:50 on this one. From the end of Nov' 07 to Mar '08 it took several attempts to break 1.50. It's been a strong barrier and we've had a lot of congestion so I think it's likely that price will rise fast if we do break above 1.50. On the other hand, if price breaks below 1.47 I think we'll see a sharp fall.

There's a mirror situation in the USD/CHF with price struggling to break below a big round number (1.0000).

I think we need to be ready to trade either way. If we get a rebound off 1.4750 I'll be ready with a long trade. If it goes through 1.4700 I'll be going short.

In the long run we should see the EUR/USD fall as the US economy stengthens. I think it's a question of when and it could be the release of one piece of economic news that takes it either way and changes the sentiment in the market.
  • #387
  • Nov 22, 2009 4:03pm Nov 22, 2009 4:03pm
DAN
I think This way of trading is profitable but we have to considar 2 important things:
1_the markt must show us a good signal of candle stick to enter the position(I think just fibo isnt enough)
2_It is really necessary to know the next sup or res that market is supposed to reach and our tp must be before them.
  • #388
  • Nov 23, 2009 2:59am Nov 23, 2009 2:59am
this system does not work to tps. and i think we also need to be aware of the danger of adding more and more filters to complicate system.

at the end of the day, as i have said before and i am sure all experienced traders will agree on, any decent system will work. its the trader that fails.



Quoting 0nline
DAN
I think This way of trading is profitable but we have to considar 2 important things:
1_the markt must show us a good signal of candle stick to enter the position(I think just fibo isnt enough)
2_It is really necessary to know the next sup or res that market is supposed to reach and our tp must be before them.
  • #389
  • Nov 23, 2009 3:13am Nov 23, 2009 3:13am
just thought id post my trades of today:
50% fib, eur/usd b @1.4850, added second lot at 1.4950, +126
AH trade, nzd/usd b @ 0.7300, +10
  • #390
  • Nov 23, 2009 4:57am Nov 23, 2009 4:57am
i closed my audusd long from 9100 for 120 pips. my trade was an AH trade essentially and in AH my primary goal is to recover lost pips.


Quoting Pipscalibur
just thought id post my trades of today:
50% fib, eur/usd b @1.4850, added second lot at 1.4950, +126
AH trade, nzd/usd b @ 0.7300, +10
  • #391
  • Nov 23, 2009 5:10am Nov 23, 2009 5:10am
Quoting coolshades
i closed my audusd long from 9100 for 120 pips. my trade was an AH trade essentially and in AH my primary goal is to recover lost pips.
Hmmm.... .

So your "only" goal with an AH is to recover lost pips. That i understand.

However im surprised you wouldnt consider leaving the trade open in case it does continue up nicely...?

Have you found out that statistically its better to just close the AH instead of aiming for more? Or is it just a personal choice?

Curious to know mate

Cheers
  • #392
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:16am Nov 23, 2009 7:16am
Quoting bluehorizon
Hi Dan

Thanks for the reply (and the thread!)

I have been trading a daily system based on the concepts of joe ross for some time. He also has the concept of a retracement and then confirmation back in the trend direction. Difference being that he would go long/short off the high/low of the first bar back in the direction of the trend. So if we use daily AUSUSD as example....monday would have to make a higher high than today (so back in the long trend direction), then tuesday we could look to go long off mondays high

Stops you getting in too...
Actually I looked into using the Joe Ross strategy some time ago. I also looked at using bar/candlestick formations (pin bars etc) as a trigger but in the end I found that the 50 pip move was statistically good enough to confirm a move back in the direction of the trend - of course there are no guarantees though!

I also like the idea of having enough room above (or below if short) to trade into.

Regards,

Dan
  • #393
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:22am Nov 23, 2009 7:22am
Quoting Pipscalibur
"Trade what you see not what you think"
eur/usd is still bullish. Dont sell a bull until you KNOW its a bear. There is a reason you follow the trend and dont try to predict the market.
I also think that 1.4700 is the support that needs to be broken before you think about selling. However it was broken only a few weeks ago by almost 100pips but went right back up(false breakout).
Just a thought to be better safe than sorry
Absolutely - the purpose of this method is to follow the trend not to predict a change in trend.
  • #394
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:27am Nov 23, 2009 7:27am
Quoting 0nline
DAN
I think This way of trading is profitable but we have to considar 2 important things:
1_the markt must show us a good signal of candle stick to enter the position(I think just fibo isnt enough)
2_It is really necessary to know the next sup or res that market is supposed to reach and our tp must be before them.
Hi,

Thank you for your comments. This method is definitely profitable but part of it's power is it's simplicity. I used to think I needed to add another dimension (such as candle stick reversal patterns etc) to make it profitable but to be honest it isn't necessary. So long as you follow the basic rules and follow the trend nothing else is needed.

I would also say that it is not possible to tell where the market will go next - it might go to the s/r level you would expect or it might not. Or it might even smash straight through it and shoot way past. That is why I only use a trailing stop - let the market tell you when you've had enough. The only concession I would make on this is when the market is range bound.

Regards,


Dan
  • #395
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:31am Nov 23, 2009 7:31am
Quoting Famulus
Hi All,

I am new to this thread and trying to mirror DanUK's chart layout.

Where do I get Dan's fibo inicator which is not only showing the % level but the price level too ?

Thanks
Hi,

It's not an indicator - all you do is go into the fib tool properties and add %$ to the end of the description on the fib levels - this should show the price as well as the level.

Regards,

Dan
  • #396
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:35am Nov 23, 2009 7:35am
Quoting Pipalicious
Hmmm.... .

So your "only" goal with an AH is to recover lost pips. That i understand.

However im surprised you wouldnt consider leaving the trade open in case it does continue up nicely...?

Have you found out that statistically its better to just close the AH instead of aiming for more? Or is it just a personal choice?

Curious to know mate

Cheers
Something I would just like to add about the A-H trade. The idea is to get losses back but also to let the trade one and hopefully turn a profit.

Basically the idea is that the A-H strategy is an alternative to hedging a trade. So for example without the A-H strategy you might think of going long at 1.4500 (for example) and that decision stands until 1.4000 - but that's a 500 pip loss! So you might hedge the trade if it went down so you have a buy and a sell running. In the Anti-Hedge world you would go long at 1.4500 and if you got stopped out at 1.4400 you would wait until price comes back up and picks up your order as it returns to the trend (in theory at least anyway!) recovering your initial loss and hopefully turning your loosing trade into a profitable one.

Hope that makes sense!

Regards,

Dan
  • #397
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:59am Nov 23, 2009 7:59am
statistically? in my life i havent back tested a system :-) so i dont know about stats. but i know that of the losses i have had, almost 80% were recovered via AH.

yes i could let that AH run and price is already a good 20 pips above my closure point, but right now my idea of AH is to regain losses.

i have read Dan's latest point on this and that might help change my take. let's see.



Quoting Pipalicious
Hmmm.... .

So your "only" goal with an AH is to recover lost pips. That i understand.

However im surprised you wouldnt consider leaving the trade open in case it does continue up nicely...?

Have you found out that statistically its better to just close the AH instead of aiming for more? Or is it just a personal choice?

Curious to know mate

Cheers
  • #398
  • Nov 23, 2009 12:07pm Nov 23, 2009 12:07pm
Quoting coolshades
statistically? in my life i havent back tested a system :-) so i dont know about stats. but i know that of the losses i have had, almost 80% were recovered via AH.

yes i could let that AH run and price is already a good 20 pips above my closure point, but right now my idea of AH is to regain losses.

i have read Dan's latest point on this and that might help change my take. let's see.
I see both your point and Dans.

I think it comes to a "personal psychological" choice...if that makes sense lol!

I suppose its what each of us feels most comfortable with.

In the end the "common goal" is to regain losses. If one wants to let it run by all means do. However, if it feels uncomfortable, then stick with what works for you.

I would personally go over all my trades and see what works out best statistically by closing once losses are recovered vs leaving it open. But that is me.

Thats the way I personally see it. Then again im still learning so take with a pinch of salt lol!

cheers coolshades.
  • #399
  • Nov 23, 2009 12:12pm Nov 23, 2009 12:12pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi,

Thank you for your comments. This method is definitely profitable but part of it's power is it's simplicity. I used to think I needed to add another dimension (such as candle stick reversal patterns etc) to make it profitable but to be honest it isn't necessary. So long as you follow the basic rules and follow the trend nothing else is needed.

I would also say that it is not possible to tell where the market will go next - it might go to the s/r level you...
Hi Dan,

Im probably being a nusance here :s

May I ask if you could put up some charts where you would apply discretion when range bound?

Reason i ask is because from the trades ive taken over the last couple month some trend trades run into a range to be "eventually" broken through continuing the trend, so i find it hard "written-wise" to see how you would apply what you mention on a chart.

Are the any specific criterias you follow that would make you close out a trade at an obstacle, maybe x amount of attempted "failed" breaks or something like that?

Bit confused here sorry.

Thanks either way Dan.
  • #400
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:59am Nov 24, 2009 3:59am
Quoting Pipalicious
Hi Dan,

Im probably being a nusance here :s

May I ask if you could put up some charts where you would apply discretion when range bound?

Reason i ask is because from the trades ive taken over the last couple month some trend trades run into a range to be "eventually" broken through continuing the trend, so i find it hard "written-wise" to see how you would apply what you mention on a chart.

Are the any specific criterias you follow that would make you close out a trade at an obstacle, maybe x amount of attempted "failed" breaks or...
Hi Pip,

Please take a look at the attached E/U chart – it is a H4 chart of August this year. The trend was up before we hit a bit of congestion where price was pretty much range-bound throughout the month of August. Note that the predominant trend was still up in my opinion – even in congestion I prefer to stick with the prevailing trend until proven otherwise (this paid off towards the end of the month when I had a long position from 1.4250 (if I remember correctly) that broke out of the range and headed back up into the direction of the trend.

What I was talking about earlier was tightening your stop loss when price was coming up to the resistance trendline. When price is range-bound like that some people will take longs and shorts – I prefer to stick with the trend for my trades but I would consider tightening my stop from 100 pips to 50 pips if price looked like it might be stalling at an obvious area of resistance (or support in a down trend). Please note however I only really do this when we are range-bound – if we are clearly trending I will stick with the normal trailing stop.

Hope that helps to clear things up.

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-11-24_EU.png Size: 55 KB
0 traders viewing now