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Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #361
  • Nov 20, 2009 9:06am Nov 20, 2009 9:06am
Hi,

Actually I would have used the swing from 6513 - 6873 in the first instance. However note that G/U is not yet trending quite how we want it to so I would be very cautious trading it.

Quoting maul3d
I'm currently long on it, looks like a reversal now , 15/30min candles are higher lows, higher highs. and we have a 4 HR pin
Remember we are watching the long term trend - 15/30 min candles can't be used to determine a change in the long term trend. I only watch higher highs, higher lows etc on a daily chart to help determine the trend.

Regards,

Dan
  • #362
  • Nov 20, 2009 9:24am Nov 20, 2009 9:24am
Hi Dan

Thanks for the reply (and the thread!)

I have been trading a daily system based on the concepts of joe ross for some time. He also has the concept of a retracement and then confirmation back in the trend direction. Difference being that he would go long/short off the high/low of the first bar back in the direction of the trend. So if we use daily AUSUSD as example....monday would have to make a higher high than today (so back in the long trend direction), then tuesday we could look to go long off mondays high

Stops you getting in too soon, but quite often the move up is gone by the time you get a setup.....if you understand what I mean. 50 pips is not a bad number IMO.

Very important (as has been mentioned) is that you make sure the there is enough "clear air" in your direction with no major S/R... my rule of thumb is that there must be a clear opportunity to make 2x what you are risking.
  • #363
  • Nov 20, 2009 9:36am Nov 20, 2009 9:36am
Quoting Xj8
Some currencies do mirror others, it's good to know which ones are opposites, when they mirror then you know it's a true market, otherwise two opposites going in the same direction tells us one of them is a false market and best to stay away from both until they are synchronised again, I think I've just answered a question you didn't ask, I'll keep it in anyway, others may benefit from it.

Looking at the USD/CHF I would be looking for sell trades as you are, 1.0250 looks the likely area the buyers will be wanting to hit, downward sloping trendline...
The volatility on this pair is quite low so I would probably go with a 50 pip stop loss allowing me to double my position size. Are you interested in a sell at 1.0150? I'm still undecided whether it's worth it with strong support at 1.0000.
  • #364
  • Nov 20, 2009 9:42am Nov 20, 2009 9:42am
This is my chart of the GU weekly. I see a 50% retracement and starting to go back in the direction of the weekly trend. I also see the 50% fib was touched three times and and bouncing off of it now. If I saw this on the 5 min I normally trade, I would short it.

Would this work in the higher?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A woman drove me to drink, and I forgot to thank her
  • #365
  • Nov 20, 2009 9:51am Nov 20, 2009 9:51am
Quoting TradeOne
The volatility on this pair is quite low so I would probably go with a 50 pip stop loss allowing me to double my position size. Are you interested in a sell at 1.0150? I'm still undecided whether it's worth it with strong support at 1.0000.
At this stage of play in the USD/CHF I would be looking for some action to happen at 1.0250 before considering a trade at 1.0200 and 1.0050 would be a likely stopping point.

How I see it:

Wait till price reaches 1.0250 where there is confluence of three barriers
Watch and wait for traders to react to this area
If it looks like 1.0250 will hold then I would place an order to sell at 1.0200
I would then monitor the market as price moved closer to 1.0050 where I may decide to manually exit if there are strong barriers there to suggest it.
  • #366
  • Nov 20, 2009 9:59am Nov 20, 2009 9:59am
err, what set up?the price is nowhere near even the 50% fib

Quoting maul3d
Potential setup on the usd/yen?

What do you guys think
  • #367
  • Nov 20, 2009 10:01am Nov 20, 2009 10:01am
Quoting simpleguy
This is my chart of the GU weekly. I see a 50% retracement and starting to go back in the direction of the weekly trend. I also see the 50% fib was touched three times and and bouncing off of it now. If I saw this on the 5 min I normally trade, I would short it.

Would this work in the higher?
I don't know much about weekly charts and unless I was trading on a much larger scale for a longer period I would pay attention to weekly charts, Daily is as far out as I would look, in doing so, I see price has hit the longer term trendline three times then broke above it, all I see now is it testing that line once again at 1.6500.

Previous resistance has become or could become support, suggests to me that a sell at this stage is not advisable, again only based on what I am looking at at present, something like this would keep me out of a sell.
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  • #368
  • Nov 20, 2009 10:05am Nov 20, 2009 10:05am
Dan,

Totally understand! But with respect to the 4HR Pin, and the possibility of the US Session reversal, I set this trade with very minimal risk (I could have entered even at a better discount price 6472, with a tight SL. The RR isn't that bad?

Sorry to stray off topic, just wanted your opinion. Currently up 40pips. I can easily take my profit for the morning.



Quoting DanUK
Hi,

Actually I would have used the swing from 6513 - 6873 in the first instance. However note that G/U is not yet trending quite how we want it to so I would be very cautious trading it.



Remember we are watching the long term trend - 15/30 min candles can't be used to determine a change in the long term trend. I only watch higher highs, higher lows etc on a daily chart to help determine the trend.

Regards,

Dan
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  • #369
  • Nov 20, 2009 10:08am Nov 20, 2009 10:08am
The setups on USD/CHF and EUR/USD are mirroring eachother exactly except the 50% fib and resistance (support for EUR/USD) lines are closer together on the USD/CHF (1.0200). Price hasn't really made a u-turn on the USD/CHF yet whereas the EUR/USD price is currently at 1.4850 after bouncing off 1.4800.
  • #370
  • Nov 20, 2009 10:22am Nov 20, 2009 10:22am
Quoting coolshades
err, what set up?the price is nowhere near even the 50% fib
here's how I have it... see the red arrow as potential area...don't think there's much chance of it getting up there... maybe monday....if the dollar rallies hard...
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  • #371
  • Nov 20, 2009 10:30am Nov 20, 2009 10:30am
thats the same point i am making. usdjpy has so low volatility that to get to that region might take ages!


Quoting bluehorizon
here's how I have it... see the red arrow as potential area...don't think there's much chance of it getting up there... maybe monday....if the dollar rallies hard...
  • #372
  • Nov 20, 2009 10:33am Nov 20, 2009 10:33am
some interesting comments by Jacko on R:R on his thread.

on eurusd and usdchf i dont see why these two have to be trades separately. one might just as well double the lot size on one of those two and just trade one of those two.

Quoting maul3d
Dan,

Totally understand! But with respect to the 4HR Pin, and the possibility of the US Session reversal, I set this trade with very minimal risk (I could have entered even at a better discount price 6472, with a tight SL. The RR isn't that bad?

Sorry to stray off topic, just wanted your opinion. Currently up 40pips. I can easily take my profit for the morning.
  • #373
  • Nov 20, 2009 10:40am Nov 20, 2009 10:40am
Quoting coolshades
thats the same point i am making. usdjpy has so low volatility that to get to that region might take ages!
cool...agreed then... only reason I am looking at it is the USDJPY is one of the top volume pairs and I am trying to keep charts current on these so that, if something happens, I am not looking for the first time..

backburner for sure..but that area is inside 1x ATR
  • #374
  • Nov 20, 2009 11:30am Nov 20, 2009 11:30am
Hi All,

I am new to this thread and trying to mirror DanUK's chart layout.

Where do I get Dan's fibo inicator which is not only showing the % level but the price level too ?

Thanks
  • #375
  • Nov 20, 2009 11:31am Nov 20, 2009 11:31am
Quoting Xj8
At this stage of play in the USD/CHF I would be looking for some action to happen at 1.0250 before considering a trade at 1.0200 and 1.0050 would be a likely stopping point.

How I see it:

Wait till price reaches 1.0250 where there is confluence of three barriers
Watch and wait for traders to react to this area
If it looks like 1.0250 will hold then I would place an order to sell at 1.0200
I would then monitor the market as price moved closer to 1.0050 where I may decide to manually exit if there are strong barriers there to suggest it.
On my chart (see below) the 50% fib is at 1.0185 and resistance is at 1.0217. I think a move to 1.0250 would mean a breach of these barriers.
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  • #376
  • Nov 20, 2009 1:19pm Nov 20, 2009 1:19pm
Quoting TradeOne
On my chart (see below) the 50% fib is at 1.0185 and resistance is at 1.0217. I think a move to 1.0250 would mean a breach of these barriers.
Trendlines are subjective, we use them mainly to determine direction and confirmation of a barrier, in the case of the USD/CHF each time highs were made, they were lower highs, I tend to redraw trendlines that reflect the market at that time. I have colour coded each change as it happened on the daily moves, red was the first two points, blue being the second and green being the third. As you can see, the green trendline has since been broken, that's the daily lines that I would have drawn in to assess trend direction.

I work on the 4 hour charts showing the last 330 candles that go from the left of my screen to the right, I know I'm looking for a sell thanks to the daily charts, I'm now looking for an entry based on a 4 hour chart, purple trendline indicated on the daily chart (Picture 1).

Picture 1 shows the daily with the three main trendlines indicating a downward trend. Picture 2 shows a closeup with the 330 bars I use and the points I use to guide possible trades.

As you can see on my chart, the green daily trendline has already been breached, the 4 hour purple trendline has yet to be reached. It's all how you as an individual trader see the charts and where you are most comfortable trading from.

I hope this gives you an insight to the way I see the charts, as long as you go with the trend not much can go wrong.
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  • #377
  • Nov 20, 2009 1:25pm Nov 20, 2009 1:25pm
did sellers have their chance to take this down but failed, as evidenced by the tail below the TL?

or is this a warning of a drop next week?

my take
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  • #378
  • Nov 20, 2009 1:36pm Nov 20, 2009 1:36pm
OK. NOW i see what you meant by the 24th/25th Nov comment in the earlier post. also these two charts make it much clearer how you are adapting Dan's system. I frankly could not follow your earlier charts (too many lines and i am thick).

so essentially to clarify

 

  1. you look for a confluence of trend line, 50% fib and round number (only .00 or .50)
  2. you wait for a bounce of the three and then enter at + 50
  3. OR once the three confluences have been pierced then you enter based on retracement - if this is right, then you enter at the confluence round number or confluence round number + 50?
  4. you have also mentioned three touches or something similar earlier. could you clarify?

and assuming i have now read your adaptation right, as far as AUD USD is concerned, you will still look at the 9200 number sometime next week, right?



Quoting Xj8
Trendlines are subjective, we use them mainly to determine direction and confirmation of a barrier, in the case of the USD/CHF each time highs were made, they were lower highs, I tend to redraw trendlines that reflect the market at that time. I have colour coded each change as it happened on the daily moves, red was the first two points, blue being the second and green being the third. As you can see, the green trendline has since been broken, that's the daily lines that I would have drawn in to assess trend direction.

I work on the 4 hour charts...
  • #379
  • Nov 20, 2009 1:38pm Nov 20, 2009 1:38pm
Quoting PeterE
did sellers have their chance to take this down but failed, as evidenced by the tail below the TL?

or is this a warning of a drop next week?

my take
I notice that 3 hits off a trendline can be common, when price moves towards a trendline for the third time it will respect it on most occassions (about 70%) and move away from it, the fourth time it will break or weaken it, and very rarely will a fifth attempt hold it. I think this trendline is about to go.
  • #380
  • Nov 20, 2009 1:49pm Nov 20, 2009 1:49pm
In a nutshell comes to mind. The other point regarding three hits, I'm not sure what I was referring to, could have been relevant to the post regarding the trendline or other barrier, I'll have to backtrack to find that point to give you a better answer. And yes 0.9200 is a probability for AUD/USD depending on what happens when it gets there, where I have marked, using your crosshair on MT4 it shows that confluence would occur on or around 24th/25th.
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