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Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #341
  • Edited 2:50am Nov 20, 2009 2:47am | Edited 2:50am
Hi coolshades

I presume you're looking long.... i dunno, there is a view that support was broken and failed a re-test recently - see chart attached (from dailyfx). that the recent high is a lower high is also warning signal to me.

my 2c... could be completely wrong of course!
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  • #342
  • Nov 20, 2009 4:50am Nov 20, 2009 4:50am
Quoting coolshades
anyone watching this for 7350 possible entry?

btw those who have taken the usdcad, can i ask why u have taken it at 0650? curious
Hi coolshades,

I had an order to go long at 0.7350.

Ive cancelled it because it doesnt look "healthy" to me at the moment. Plus it just carried on going south.

IŽll sit tight and wait
  • #343
  • Nov 20, 2009 5:13am Nov 20, 2009 5:13am
I have a couple of new setups that I've been looking at.

My concern about the USD/CHF is resistance at around 1.0000. Also, current price on AUD/CHF is 0.9265 which is approaching 50 pips under the support area of 0.9300...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #344
  • Nov 20, 2009 6:03am Nov 20, 2009 6:03am
stopped out at 91.will place an ah trade once price reaches 9050
  • #345
  • Nov 20, 2009 6:34am Nov 20, 2009 6:34am
Quoting coolshades
stopped out at 91.will place an ah trade once price reaches 9050
That makes 2 of us lol.

Same here...
  • #346
  • Nov 20, 2009 6:36am Nov 20, 2009 6:36am
make that 3.....
  • #347
  • Nov 20, 2009 6:41am Nov 20, 2009 6:41am
Waiting 50 pips doesn't always work, but there is a 90% chance that the trade will go in your direction when you have confluence of 3 barriers, 70-80% with 2 barriers. On every occassion you are looking to secure 100 pips, getting to break even is the ultimate goal, everything after that is a bonus.

The next stage is to lock in 100 pips when price moves that distance, BUT, look at the chart and see if there is anything in your way, such as 2 or 3 barriers ahead of you, if not you keep going till the market takes you out moving 100 pips every time.

When I enter a trade, I look to see if what got me into the trade is ahead of me, there is a high probability that the same will stop me capturing more pips.

As I have adopted Dans method (with a little tweaking of my own) I assume I will be averaging the same pipage as he is, when I last looked that was averaging around 1,000 pips per month, I haven't been using it long enough to give an accurate return, but since using it, I am averaging 80% returns.
  • #348
  • Nov 20, 2009 6:48am Nov 20, 2009 6:48am
oh well.. i was probably a little impatient with that entry, but that's how we learn

that's very good going Xj8, how many pairs are you trading and which ones (if you don't mind me asking? and how many trades in a typical month? I am looking at eurusd(with jacko) and now starting to look at USDJPY, GBPUSD and AUSUSD.

cheers
  • #349
  • Nov 20, 2009 7:06am Nov 20, 2009 7:06am
We have a touch and retrace off a MAJOR MAJOR daily TL...
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  • #350
  • Nov 20, 2009 7:08am Nov 20, 2009 7:08am
Quoting Xj8
Waiting 50 pips doesn't always work, but there is a 90% chance that the trade will go in your direction when you have confluence of 3 barriers, 70-80% with 2 barriers. On every occassion you are looking to secure 100 pips, getting to break even is the ultimate goal, everything after that is a bonus.

The next stage is to lock in 100 pips when price moves that distance, BUT, look at the chart and see if there is anything in your way, such as 2 or 3 barriers ahead of you, if not you keep going till the market takes you out moving 100 pips every time....
I'd be interested to know your opinion on the USD/CHF. The 50% Fib and downward resistance line are at around 1.2000 which is where price is currently hovering. However, there is upward sloping support at 1.0000...

With 1.0000 being such a big round number there's a strong hint that this pair may have reached its bottom. This is similar to EUR/USD which is struggling to break 1.5000. If this is true then it's likely to have the same effect on many of the other currencies in my opinion.
  • #351
  • Edited 8:54am Nov 20, 2009 7:11am | Edited 8:54am
I previously posted my thought on this earlier #331, my views have still not changed, despite price hitting the trendline and now 0.9100, the 50% retrace is now out of sinc with the other two barriers, I will wait a little longer before entering long, hopefully it will move up from where it is on the chart posted to around 0.9200 where it could come back to 0.9150, that's when I will consider a trade (approx 24th 25th Nov).

If this plays out the way I hope it does and price converges at the 0.9150, I would be looking to go long at 0.9200. Of course, this is just my plan, and all good plans can go wrong, price might not respect the lower trendline and head towards 0.9000 where a longer term 50% fib lies. Then it's change of plan, that's trading for you.
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  • #352
  • Edited 7:41am Nov 20, 2009 7:28am | Edited 7:41am
Quoting TradeOne
I'd be interested to know your opinion on the USD/CHF. The 50% Fib and downward resistance line are at around 1.2000 which is where price is currently hovering. However, there is upward sloping support at 1.0000...

With 1.0000 being such a big round number there's a strong hint that this pair may have reached its bottom. This is similar to EUR/USD which is struggling to break 1.5000. If this is true then it's likely to have the same effect on many of the other currencies in my opinion.
Some currencies do mirror others, it's good to know which ones are opposites, when they mirror then you know it's a true market, otherwise two opposites going in the same direction tells us one of them is a false market and best to stay away from both until they are synchronised again, I think I've just answered a question you didn't ask, I'll keep it in anyway, others may benefit from it.

Looking at the USD/CHF I would be looking for sell trades as you are, 1.0250 looks the likely area the buyers will be wanting to hit, downward sloping trendline and round number, moving back to the previous high from your fib would give a 50% retrace at this point too, so certainly an area to watch. It might be nearer Monday before confluence of all three barriers are in place, it may hit the trendline today, shy away from it to 1.0150 then back to 1.0250, then I'm interested in a sell. Again, watch what happens around these areas. Overall trend is down, I would not be looking for buys until price proves it has turned around.
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  • #353
  • Nov 20, 2009 7:43am Nov 20, 2009 7:43am
This is an awesome thread for a safety trading is trend follower trading, breaking the trendline is a profitable trading method. Thank's for sharing with us guys. I read it from the first page and a lot of useful information in there, great..
It's Designed and Balance
  • #354
  • Nov 20, 2009 7:48am Nov 20, 2009 7:48am
Quoting coolshades
those who have taken the usdcad, can i ask why u have taken it at 0650? curious
I sell cad because Daily TL, 50%fibo, and resistant (mark by arrow). My plan is to watch price @ around 1.0700 and 1.0650, it gets there and bounce so i took the trade. price has been as high as 1.0732, close to my SL @1.0750 hopefully its going down
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  • #355
  • Nov 20, 2009 8:01am Nov 20, 2009 8:01am
i am sure everyone adopts this system ( or any system for that matter) to suit their personality.

i know my limitations and strengths and based on what i know of myself i trade this system as mechanically as possible. i had no reason not to enter that trade and would do so again. i have no reason not to use an ah policy.

losses happen.

i am averaging 70% on this system, but its just a month so early to say.

Quoting Xj8
Waiting 50 pips doesn't always work, but there is a 90% chance that the trade will go in your direction when you have confluence of 3 barriers, 70-80% with 2 barriers. On every occassion you are looking to secure 100 pips, getting to break even is the ultimate goal, everything after that is a bonus.

The next stage is to lock in 100 pips when price moves that distance, BUT, look at the chart and see if there is anything in your way, such as 2 or 3 barriers ahead of you, if not you keep going till the market takes you out moving 100 pips every time.

When...
  • #356
  • Nov 20, 2009 8:03am Nov 20, 2009 8:03am
was just asking. i am too raw to keep questioning the validity of other people's trades.

if there is anything i have learnt in my 3 years of trading it is that its not the system that fails. most widely used systems will work if adhered to. its the trader that fails.


Quoting carrot_yuli
I sell cad because Daily TL, 50%fibo, and resistant (mark by arrow). My plan is to watch price @ around 1.0700 and 1.0650, it gets there and bounce so i took the trade. price has been as high as 1.0732, close to my SL @1.0750 hopefully its going down
  • #357
  • Nov 20, 2009 8:26am Nov 20, 2009 8:26am
Potential setup on the usd/yen?

What do you guys think
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  • #358
  • Nov 20, 2009 8:52am Nov 20, 2009 8:52am
yep...watching that too...maybe monday
  • #359
  • Nov 20, 2009 8:57am Nov 20, 2009 8:57am
XJ8, Dan, -

GU - Did i draw the FIB right? Or should I have drawn the swing from 6513 to 6873?

I'm currently long on it, looks like a reversal now , 15/30min candles are higher lows, higher highs. and we have a 4 HR pin
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  • #360
  • Nov 20, 2009 8:58am Nov 20, 2009 8:58am
Quoting bluehorizon
well... aususd seems to have turned back up at 0.9130..after going just past the 50% fib.. I am in at 0.9180

I would have preferred a trade off the support line, but 50% fib seems to be holding.

Dan - is this a correct application of your method? I am familiar with jacko's regular system, but if I am understanding correctly, your entry is a little different with this 50 pip "confirmation"

cheers
Hi,

I haven't got my proper internet connection back up at home yet so I keep missing questions... sorry about that! Yes that is the sort of thing I look for. On E/U and G/U I have been using a 50 pip bounce off of support and resistance levels (particularly using the round numbers). Other currencies may not need 50 pips - some may need more, some less - which is one of the main reasons I started this thread; so that we could test and discuss these kind of minor alterations.

Regards,

Dan
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