Trend Trading Chart Thread | Page 17 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Are you a trend trader or a counter-trend trader? 29 replies

Trading bounces off daily chart trend lines 13 replies

Trend trading with 55EMAs on the Daily Chart 10 replies

Is Grid Trading (combined trend following and counter trend) Profitable? 3 replies

Attachments: Trend Trading Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #321
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:40am Nov 19, 2009 5:40am
Quoting simpleguy
I have a bunch of charts on my screen and I'm trying to learn how to trade on the longer time frames. I'm having difficulties with this right now so what I did was made a spread sheet with each pair on it and what they are doing in the weekly, daily, & 4 hr mode and a little on what I think where the pair is going and doing.

Would love to have some opinions on this. Am I right on track or I'm a simple blundering idiot that has more to learn than I even think I do. Loaded statement on this thread, constructive feed back please.

Any pairs I...
Hello again,

I think you are over-thinking things a bit. I commend you for doing your research but remember that one of the best things about this strategy is that it is very, very simple.

As a newbie to it I would recommend choosing only one or two currency pairs to learn with. Trust me, you can make enough money trading just one currency with this method if you want to.

Take a top down approach (as you have suggested) and look at the weekly, daily and 4 hourly chart but only trade from the timeframe that you are interested in. In this case we are trading the 4 hour chart - so the daily and weekly chart are just to help us gauge where we are in the overall scheme of things. Don't try and pull a 100 pip trade from a weekly chart!

Keep it simple and you should do well!

Regards,

Dan
  • #322
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:45am Nov 19, 2009 5:45am
Quoting Big1red9
XJ8,

Isn't it suggested that you get in at the 50% fib / round number and stop out if it fails? Then to re-enter at the stopped out price in the future and use the anti-hedge to get back in?

I had thought in my reading the confirmation of a trend reversal is what was implied not each entry.... or do I have it wrong?

Thanks
BR
Hi BR,

I don't believe it is suggested that the entry should be at that specific point, it is suggested that you see how price reacts when it gets there, if and only if there is sufficient evidence that the barriers will hold, one reason could be price does not close below these barriers, then you enter at the next available round number in your direction, which would be 50 pips away (1.6750).

In the case of the current GU probability at 1.6700, we can see on the 4 hour timescale the setup suits this trading method, the third hit off of the trendline is where I took my fib (latest swing high/swing low) 50% was at the round number 1.6700, looks good for a buy here, but you MUST be patient and wait for confirmation that this level will hold, allow price to stumble there first and then let it move 50 pips away from the barriers.

As you can see from the chart posted, I have these barriers in place, price paid little attention to these barriers and continued on down, ok, so now I'm looking at 1.6650 another area where price could stumble, BUT I would not consider getting in a buy at 1.6700, reason being, previous support could become resistance, both the round number and the trendline are in favour of this happening. I now look further back to where price is likely to head and the next probable barriers, this would be in the region of 1.6550, however, there would only be two barriers, 50% and round number, no trendline for support on the 4 hr.

The GU is still a tricky pair to trade at the moment, direction is slightly favourable for the bulls, but I'm looking for something that will give me an 80% chance of being successful, 1.6700 wasn't it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 19th nov 2.jpg Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 19th nov 2b.jpg Size: 103 KB
  • #323
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:59am Nov 19, 2009 5:59am
Dans method when adhered to will put lots of money into your bank account it will also save you lots of money too when you STICK to the rules, trendline, 50% fib level and round numbers are the three main keys to success here, the fourth is simply patience.
  • #324
  • Nov 19, 2009 7:08am Nov 19, 2009 7:08am
question: why didnt you enter at 1.67 given that two h4 candles bounced off the 50% fib (my 50% is at 6689)

Quoting Xj8
Hi BR,

I don't believe it is suggested that the entry should be at that specific point, it is suggested that you see how price reacts when it gets there, if and only if there is sufficient evidence that the barriers will hold, one reason could be price does not close below these barriers, then you enter at the next available round number in your direction, which would be 50 pips away (1.6750).

In the case of the current GU probability at 1.6700, we can see on the 4 hour timescale the setup suits this trading method, the third hit off of...
  • #325
  • Nov 19, 2009 7:43am Nov 19, 2009 7:43am
Quoting Pipalicious
OI!!!

So its you then is it? selling it to me?! hmmmm...

lol.

Still learning bro. However, im sticking to my guns. Time will tell.

you using the weekly/daily to trade or 4h charts?


LOL...just a figure of speach!! Sorry!

Monthly/weekly/daily...and trade off a daily chart.

I just try to find a good trend and ride the bronco as long as I can.

golferfx
  • #326
  • Nov 19, 2009 9:50am Nov 19, 2009 9:50am
hi

is anyone watching aususd. i have it sitting on its 50% fib at 0.9150 with daily support below at around 0.9070

if it gets to 0.9100 I will start looking for long at 0.9150 or if it gets to daily support then 50 pips above support (or wherever it stops - within reason?).

Dan, I think your idea of waiting for it to come back 50 pips in your direction is a great one - helps avoid some of those falling knives!

cheers
  • #327
  • Nov 19, 2009 11:42am Nov 19, 2009 11:42am
well... aususd seems to have turned back up at 0.9130..after going just past the 50% fib.. I am in at 0.9180

I would have preferred a trade off the support line, but 50% fib seems to be holding.

Dan - is this a correct application of your method? I am familiar with jacko's regular system, but if I am understanding correctly, your entry is a little different with this 50 pip "confirmation"

cheers
  • #328
  • Nov 19, 2009 1:38pm Nov 19, 2009 1:38pm
Here is my analysis!

50% FIB has been touched and rejected quite a few times, definte buy signal.

Also, an ascending TL on the 4hr chart, within the major TL.

Aussie in an uptrend, 32 pips from the major ascending TL, retraced back to the 50% FIB, and seems bullish.. went long.


Would do you guys think??>
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euronovember19.jpg Size: 117 KB
  • #329
  • Nov 19, 2009 1:47pm Nov 19, 2009 1:47pm
USD/CAD had a nice short opportunity earlier @1.0686. decending daily TL.

Watch PA around the 50% FIB. @ 1.0632 for possible shorts
  • #330
  • Nov 19, 2009 7:14pm Nov 19, 2009 7:14pm
Quoting coolshades
question: why didnt you enter at 1.67 given that two h4 candles bounced off the 50% fib (my 50% is at 6689)
Price did do as you stated, but that was just testing the strength of the barriers, I fully expected price to move away from 1.6700, taking a trade at 1.6700 in my opinion is a bounce trade (bouncing off a trendline), in cases like this you want a short stop (just below the trendline) so when you are wrong you are taken out with minimum losses.

To confirm it is a bounce, I like Dans rule of getting in at the next round number, this being 1.6750 so I placed an order to enter at 1.6750 as per the rules, it did not reach this entry level and price proceeded to continue south, I cancelled the buy order and re-evaluated the charts for the next probable area.
  • #331
  • Nov 19, 2009 7:33pm Nov 19, 2009 7:33pm
I'm watching this pair too, 50% fib just above 0.9150, as much as I would be tempted to enter at 0.9200 I would rather there were 3 levels of support, that being the round number, 50% retrace and the trendline, just now it's more than 50 pips away from the trendline, I would like to see the 3 barriers a little closer.

I have an arrow on the chart that accompanies this post showing where I would like to see price at or at least within 20 pips of each other (my preference). I like to see price interact with all three barriers first, then I'm looking to buy 50 pips from the barriers in this case 0.9200. Two barriers can turn into a positive trade, however, three is a stronger reason to get in.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 20th nov.jpg Size: 120 KB
  • #332
  • Nov 19, 2009 7:51pm Nov 19, 2009 7:51pm
Hi Xj8

Thanks for that explanation - I agree that the setup you describe would be a higher probability trade. Lets see if we get there..

Also, nice work passing on the g/u trade.... I also like dan's method of waiting for a 50 pip "confirmation". This was an excellent example of where application of this paid off.

maul3D - we in they same boat, lets hope she gets some wind in her sails!

cheers
  • #333
  • Nov 19, 2009 7:58pm Nov 19, 2009 7:58pm
Without Dans guidance in the early stages, the chances are I would not have waited and I would have been in at 1.6700, this thread has taught me to watch the market and wait and see what it does at a particular level, so waiting for confirmation could save you a few hairs on your scalp and a keep the coppers in your pocket a little longer.

As you said, GU today was a perfect example.
  • #334
  • Nov 19, 2009 8:13pm Nov 19, 2009 8:13pm
Quoting maul3d
Here is my analysis!

50% FIB has been touched and rejected quite a few times, definte buy signal.

Also, an ascending TL on the 4hr chart, within the major TL.

Aussie in an uptrend, 32 pips from the major ascending TL, retraced back to the 50% FIB, and seems bullish.. went long.


Would do you guys think??>
I'm a little unsure about this pair at this time, I see price coiling into a wedge formation, currently posting lower highs and higher lows on the 4 hour scale, where a buy is concerned, I would like to see higher highs to accompany the higher lows.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 20th nov.jpg Size: 102 KB
  • #335
  • Nov 19, 2009 8:21pm Nov 19, 2009 8:21pm
Following on from the last post, we had the same problem with the GBP/JPY just recently, it coiled into a wedge then price finally decided to break through one of the trendlines, let it sort itself out first and establish which direction it decides to go, only then can you make more positive trading decisions.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 20th nov.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #336
  • Nov 19, 2009 10:07pm Nov 19, 2009 10:07pm
Kj8,

Thank you for your answers. I need to go back and read the thread again. I didn't "read" it as closely as I should have, thinking it was closer to Jacko's teaching than it is.

If you wait 50 pips to get a confirmation for your entry, what kind of pip captures do you think you average?

Thank you,
BR


Quoting Xj8
Hi BR,

I don't believe it is suggested that the entry should be at that specific point, it is suggested that you see how price reacts when it gets there, if and only if there is sufficient evidence that the barriers will hold, one reason could be price does not close below these barriers, then you enter at the next available round number in your direction, which would be 50 pips away (1.6750).

In the case of the current GU probability at 1.6700, we can see on the 4 hour timescale the setup suits this trading method, the third hit off...
  • #337
  • Nov 19, 2009 11:01pm Nov 19, 2009 11:01pm
Late entry on aussie,

also short on ucad.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcdn.jpg Size: 119 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.jpg Size: 113 KB
  • #338
  • Nov 19, 2009 11:05pm Nov 19, 2009 11:05pm
also took more longs on the euro earlier, closed out my original one with 70 pips.

Nice bounce off my ascending TL.

Overall, the USD is weak all across the board.

http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/9040/euronov20.gif
  • #339
  • Nov 20, 2009 12:15am Nov 20, 2009 12:15am
Quoting maul3d
Late entry on aussie,

also short on ucad.
We are on the same boat. Short Ucad @ 1.0650
  • #340
  • Nov 20, 2009 1:13am Nov 20, 2009 1:13am
anyone watching this for 7350 possible entry?

btw those who have taken the usdcad, can i ask why u have taken it at 0650? curious
2 traders viewing now