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Hourly Fibonacci Method (Day Trading)

  • #381
  • Nov 18, 2009 9:44am Nov 18, 2009 9:44am
Quoting jeffokes
"Sorry for the lengthy response"
Tunji thanks so much for your response,please keep the "the lengthy" responses coming,I am deeply grateful to you for them.

[font=Arial]Meanwhile,I spotted thie EURUSD since yesterday and was glad that a good one could be coming and was poised for a possible take at the overlap of fib61.8 and weekly pivot as shown on my chart attached,then came so timely your post with the caution [i][b]"However, though, from a day-trade perspective, our bias is bearish,...
You’re very much welcome Jeff. From my understanding – using a Short trade scenario as an example – traders usually use the lowest price a given currency pair, etc. reached the previous day to determine whether other traders are ready to continue selling today. If the other traders show the willingness to keep on selling by pushing price below the previous day’s low (or the previous day’s lowest price), then one gets more convinced that price might move further downward; so, waiting for price to break previous days’ highs or lows before attempting to go Long or Short, respectively, is a good way to gauge the market’s (or other traders’) sentiment.
However, as with other observations in the market, it doesn’t ALWAYS work that way.
  • #382
  • Nov 19, 2009 1:58am Nov 19, 2009 1:58am
Time of Posting – Thur. Nov. 19, 2009. 07:58 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), though it’s pretty much obvious that we’re now within a medium term bullish trend, current price actions show we probably have the opportunity to seek Short trades – from a day-trade perspective. Earlier this week, price moved upward to breach, at that time, the most recent swing high @ 1.6842 (which we’ve highlighted using the middle blue broken line) but was unable to stay above it; consequently, it started retracing downward since then. The previous day’s low @ 1.6714 (not highlighted) has been broken downward and that strengthens our day-trade bearish bias. However, price is currently at the lower edge of an upward or bullish channel, and that tells us to be very cautious of Short trades. In case the bears decide to disregard the channel’s lower edge, we expect the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6514 (which we’ve highlighted using the lowest blue broken line) to act as the next crucial support level. In all, from a day-trade perspective, our bias is bearish; but let’s keep in mind that we are still within a medium term bullish trend.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.6754 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. The bullish channel discussed on the Daily chart is shown on the H4 chart and it gives us a clearer observation of price action around it. We would observe it’s currently stalling further bearish move. The next crucial support level @ 1.6514 (that we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line), which we also discussed on the Daily chart, is also seen on the H4 chart – over 150 pips from current price position.
Depending on individuals’ risk-tolerance level, we might handle the current situation in a couple of ways: either we immediately start seeking Short trade setups, or we wait for an H4 candle to close decisively below the bullish channel. Whatever we decide, again, let’s keep in mind that we are still within a medium term bullish trend.
The white horizontal line @ 1.6845 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
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  • #383
  • Nov 19, 2009 5:00am Nov 19, 2009 5:00am
Time of Posting – Thur. Nov. 19, 2009. 11:00 GMT

With support of the Daily and H4 charts, we currently have a possible Long trade setup on the USDCHF pair.

Pls NOTE: On the H4 chart (attached), while setting our profit targets and managing our Long trades, let’s keep in mind the most recent swing high @ 1.0208 (highlighted with the blue broken line). It might prove to be a crucial resistance.

The Hourly chart (attached) is currently forming a tradable pattern. Price seems to have topped temporarily @ 1.0194. Hence, we expect price to retrace to the area between 1.0158 and 1.0122 (which is the area between the 50% and 100% fib. retracement levels – drawn from the most recent Hourly swing low to the current price-top). Let’s seek to buy around this area. If price breaks the 1.0122 level downward, our bullish bias is no more valid and we enter a no-trading zone. Our primary profit target is @ 1.0214 (the 127% fib. ext.).

Also, if price breaks above 1.0194 (current price-top) before retracing to the buy-area, we’ll have to redraw our Fibonacci tools using a new top & the most recent Hourly swing low to determine new potential areas to buy.

The 15min. chart (attached) gives us a clearer view of the Hourly price action and the potential areas to buy (please note it’s advisable to set a Limit order ahead of time as price could move down to these level and reverse sharply in our favor)
This chart is rather cluttered but if we look closely, there are a couple of potential reversal levels available. You choose your preferred level based on your personality.

fib 61.8% ret. @ 1.0150;
fib 78.6% ret. @ 1.0138.

Personally, based on the broken most-recent Hourly swing high @ 1.0140, which I believe is a potentially strong reversal level, I would be going for the 78.6% ret.

Initial Stop Loss @ 1.0120; primary Profit target @ 1.0212 (Please remember to factor in your broker’s pip-spread).

Please note that all these Fibonacci (fib.) levels have other pivots, overlapping fibs or previous highs/lows supporting them (they are the cause of this cluttered chart). As such, price could reverse at any of the points. The issue here is that the deeper the fib level you choose to buy from, the smaller the pips you’ll risk and the more your pip-profit; BUT, also the more the likelihood of you missing the trade as price might not retrace that deep before moving back upward.
You need your own discretion here.

Please keep your risk low. Don’t risk more than 2% of your capital. Personally, I risk about 0.5% per trade; and each trade has a potential profit target of 1% or more – based on my entry & exit levels.
We MUST NEVER assume we KNOW where price is going next!

P.S.:
Similar Short trade set-up is forming on the EURUSD pair.
Also, always keep in mind any major news releases. Be wary of possible price volatility during these periods.
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  • #384
  • Nov 19, 2009 7:58am Nov 19, 2009 7:58am
Quoting Tunji
Time of Posting – Thur. Nov. 19, 2009. 11:00 GMT

With support of the Daily and H4 charts, we currently have a possible Long trade setup on the USDCHF pair.

Pls NOTE: On the H4 chart (attached), while setting our profit targets and managing our Long trades, let’s keep in mind the most recent swing high @ 1.0208 (highlighted with the blue broken line). It might prove to be a crucial resistance......
Hi Tunji,
Referring to my H1 chart,
1) Do u think setup 'A' is viable to take? The bearish retracement stopped almost right at 78.6.
2) Is the taken out of yesterday's high makes you validate yr H1 setup?
3) I think wave 'B' is shy of reaching top of 'A' and hence prices ranging or sell off would be more likely. 1.02...area is really a hurdle.

Just to share....my thought.

Thanks.
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  • #385
  • Nov 19, 2009 10:02am Nov 19, 2009 10:02am
I love using Fibonacci in my trades. But I only use in on the 4H and Daily charts. Forex trading becomes so simple once you get the hang of it. Although I'm not saying that it's going to be easy. But Fibonacci gives you a clearer picture of what is happening in the markets.

I'm glad I found this thread. Will post my trades using Fibonacci soon.
  • #386
  • Edited 1:20pm Nov 19, 2009 11:44am | Edited 1:20pm
Quoting lefteye
Hi Tunji,
Referring to my H1 chart,
1) Do u think setup 'A' is viable to take? The bearish retracement stopped almost right at 78.6.
2) Is the taken out of yesterday's high makes you validate yr H1 setup?
3) I think wave 'B' is shy of reaching top of 'A' and hence prices ranging or sell off would be more likely. 1.02...area is really a hurdle.

Just to share....my thought.

Thanks.
Nice observations Allan.
· Based on this thread’s method, setup ‘A’ isn’t viable. The primary fib for a Long trade is always drawn from the most recent Hourly swing low, and that wasn’t the most recent swing low at that time (sorry I don’t know how to paste text on your images. I’ll be glad if you or anyone could explain it to me).
· Price-break above yesterday’s high supported the Long trade, but wasn’t the only reason.
· Regarding the ‘A’ high in relation to ‘B’, you’re correct: it is a hurdle; and you would notice I referred to that in the “Long USDCHF setup” post.
However, my personal opinion of the market is that you won’t always have all indicators and price actions giving you the green light, so you just have to trade your method while putting into consideration other contrary indications when managing the trade.
  • #387
  • Nov 19, 2009 12:31pm Nov 19, 2009 12:31pm
Quoting bluefxcoach
I love using Fibonacci in my trades. But I only use in on the 4H and Daily charts. Forex trading becomes so simple once you get the hang of it. Although I'm not saying that it's going to be easy. But Fibonacci gives you a clearer picture of what is happening in the markets.

I'm glad I found this thread. Will post my trades using Fibonacci soon.
Looking forward to seeing your charts Bluefxcoach.
  • #388
  • Nov 20, 2009 2:03am Nov 20, 2009 2:03am
Time of Posting – Fri. Nov. 20, 2009. 08:03 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), we concluded yesterday that “though… we’re now within a medium term bullish trend, current price actions show we probably have the opportunity to seek Short trades – from a day-trade perspective.” Today, our day-trade bias still remains bearish. Yesterday’s candle closed decisively below the lower edge of the upward or bullish channel – a good sign the bears still have momentum. However, before seeking our Hourly Short trade setups – supported by the H4 chart – we would like to see price break below yesterday’s low @ 1.6605 (not highlighted) to be further convinced of the bears’ strength.
As we also concluded earlier, we expect the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6514 (which we’ve highlighted using the lowest blue broken line) to act as the next crucial support level.

On the H4 chart (attached), price broke, at that time, the most recent swing low @ 1.6754 (which we’ve highlighted using the uppermost blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifted our bias in favor of a downward price move. We could observe price’s proximity to previous day’s low – also the most recent swing low @ 1.6605 (that we’ve highlighted using the middle blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart as a support level we would like price to break below before seeking Hourly Short trades. We could also observe the crucial support level @ 1.6514 (that we’ve highlighted using the lowest blue broken line), which we also discussed on the Daily chart. We have about 90-pip gap between the 1.6605 and 1.6514 levels; hence, we seem to have enough room to short this pair – in case price eventually breaks below the 1.6605 level.
The white horizontal line @ 1.6845 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
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  • #389
  • Nov 20, 2009 7:04am Nov 20, 2009 7:04am
Quoting bluefxcoach
I love using Fibonacci in my trades. But I only use in on the 4H and Daily charts. Forex trading becomes so simple once you get the hang of it. Although I'm not saying that it's going to be easy. But Fibonacci gives you a clearer picture of what is happening in the markets.

I'm glad I found this thread. Will post my trades using Fibonacci soon.
Hi 'bluefxcoach'
Welcome on board, looking forward to see your charts...
  • #390
  • Nov 20, 2009 7:18am Nov 20, 2009 7:18am
Quoting Tunji
Nice observations Allan.
· Based on this thread’s method, setup ‘A’ isn’t viable. The primary fib for a Long trade is always drawn from the most recent Hourly swing low, and that wasn’t the most recent swing low at that time (sorry I don’t know how to paste text on your images. I’ll be glad if you or anyone could explain it to me)....
You may want to try this software for image editing...
http://www.irfanview.com/
  • #391
  • Nov 22, 2009 7:04pm Nov 22, 2009 7:04pm
Quoting lefteye
You may want to try this software for image editing...
http://www.irfanview.com/
Thanks Lefteye.
  • #392
  • Nov 23, 2009 3:08am Nov 23, 2009 3:08am
Time of Posting – Mon. Nov. 23, 2009. 09:08 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), last week, we correctly anticipated further bearish movement on the GBPUSD pair. Also in accordance with our analysis, price found support around the most recent Daily swing low @ 1.6514 (which we’ve highlighted using the middle blue broken line). While our bias still remains bearish primarily due to the fact that price breached the 1.6514 level, the last trading day’s candle – last week Friday’s candle – did not decisively close below it, hence we still need further confirmation that the bears still have momentum. We would like to see price break below previous trading day’s low – Friday’s low – @ 1.6459 (not highlighted). From a day-trade perspective, we would interpret current price action as a bullish retracement; hence we might have to exercise patience in seeking day-trade selling opportunities. If price eventually breaks below Friday’s low @ 1.6459, we expect the next Daily swing low @ 1.6261 (which we’ve highlighted using the lowest blue broken line) to act as the new crucial support level.

On the H4 chart (attcahed), price broke, at that time, the most recent swing low @ 1.6605 (which we’ve highlighted using the upper blue broken line) downward. That automatically sustained our bias in favor of a downward price move. As discussed on the Daily chart, Friday’s low @ 1.6459 (that we’ve highlighted using the lower blue broken line), which is seen on the H4 chart as the most recent swing low, is a level we would like to see price break below to confirm further bearish movement. Again, from a day-trade perspective, price seems to be in a bullish retracement, and as a result, it’s currently a considerable distance away from the 1.6459 level we would like to see it break below. We might have to exercise patience in seeking day-trade selling opportunities.
The white horizontal line @ 1.6674 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, once the coast is clear, we’ll still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
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  • #393
  • Nov 24, 2009 2:40am Nov 24, 2009 2:40am
Time of Posting – Tue. Nov. 24, 2009. 08:40 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), we would observe that since two weeks ago – precisely Wednesday 11 – when price peaked @ 1.5047 to form the “second top” of a possible Double Top formation (pointed out by the right green arrow), price has been in a consolidation pattern – within a narrow downward or bearish channel formation. At the time the consolidation started, similar to most of life situations, we didn’t have enough information to know it had started, as that would have aided our decisions. It’s during periods like this that individuals crave the sixth sense to see into the future. However, in the absence of sixth sense, we’ll always make do with what is readily at our disposal: the real-time information.
Current price action is telling us that the market is in a consolidation mode, hence, from a day-trade perspective, it’s probably advisable to keep off any trending method till we have a clearer coast. We would be waiting for price to break decisively above or below the bearish channel to make further decisions. We don’t know when that would happen, it may or may not happen today; we just have to wait.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.4934 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. However, as we’ve discussed at length on the Daily chart, current bigger picture isn’t supporting any strong bullish movement for now, hence, regardless of the H4 swing break, it’s preferable to keep off any day-trade trending methods for now.
Although, the coast is not clear at the moment, let’s keep in mind that the green horizontal line @ 1.4800 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.
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  • #394
  • Nov 25, 2009 6:23am Nov 25, 2009 6:23am
Time of Posting – Wed. Nov. 25, 2009. 12:23 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), earlier price action today resulted in a decisive break above the downward or bearish channel, which we discussed yesterday. Not only that, the bulls also shattered two critical resistance levels: the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.5047, a level which had been acting as the “second top” of a previously anticipated – i.e. now nullified – Double Top formation (pointed out by the right green arrow), and the year-high @ 1.5061 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line). Both are just a few pips apart from each other.
Hence, from a day-trade perspective (and even a longer term perspective), our bias is now bullish. There seems to be no major resistance level the bulls have to contend with for now, so we expect a relatively “smooth” uptrend for the time being.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing high @ 1.4987 (which we've highlighted using the lowest blue broken line) upward. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. Also, as we discussed on the Daily chart, the crucial resistance levels: the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.5047 and the year-high @ 1.5061 (which we've highlighted using the middle and uppermost blue broken lines, respectively) have also been broken; and that greatly strengthens our bullish bias. However, let’s keep in mind that price has moved a considerable distance today, so movement might stall for a while. The green horizontal line @ 1.4887 highlights the most recent swing low, and as long as price stays above it - in the absence of any new and higher swing low - our bullish or upward bias remains intact.

However, when seeking our Long trades, we’ll still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in an up-trend.
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  • #395
  • Nov 25, 2009 8:36pm Nov 25, 2009 8:36pm
Hey guys,
I think GbpUsd has probably formed a wider bullish channel comparatively. With a higher swing high in H4, bullish bias should be observed.
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  • #396
  • Nov 25, 2009 8:57pm Nov 25, 2009 8:57pm
Quoting lefteye
Hey guys,
I think GbpUsd has probably formed a wider bullish channel comparatively. With a higher swing high in H4, bullish bias should be observed.
Lefteye, I agree with your view; and it would be pleasing to see price break above yesterday’s high @ 1.6744.
  • #397
  • Edited 3:41am Nov 26, 2009 3:15am | Edited 3:41am
Time of Posting – Thur. Nov. 26, 2009. 09:15 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), yesterday, we witnessed price making a new year-high @ 1.5143 (not highlighted). Price broke two previous critical resistance levels: the most recent Daily swing high @ 1.5047 (also not highlighted) and the previous year-high @ 1.5061 (which we've highlighted using the blue broken line). Those price actions were strong enough to sustain our day-trade bullish bias and shift our longer term bias to supporting an uptrend scenario. Currently, price is probably having a bearish retracement. It is, at the moment, around the previous year-high level @ 1.5061, which we expect to now act as a good support level. If the current retracement is shallow, the 1.5061 level might help the bulls resume their movement. The main thing we’re interested in is when we would be prompted to continue seeking Long trade setups on our Hourly charts – supported by H4 chart; hence, we would like to see price break above the year-high – also the previous day’s high @ the 1.5143 level.

Please NOTE: Let’s keep in mind that today is Thanksgiving holiday in the US, so we might experience thin trading volume, especially during the New York session.

On the H4 chart (attached), the previously broken swing high @ 1.4987 (which we've highlighted using the lowest blue broken line) still remains the most recent swing high price broke above. That sustains our bias in favor of an upward price move. The previous year-high @ 1.5061 (that we've highlighted using the middle blue broken line), which we discussed on the Daily chart as a level we expect to now act as a good support level – if the current retracement is shallow – is seen on the H4 chart.
The new year-high – also the previous day’s high @ 1.5143 (which we've highlighted using the uppermost blue broken line) is seen as the most recent swing high on the H4 chart. Again, as earlier discussed, we would like to see price break above this level before seeking Long trade setups.

However, we still need our Hourly charts - using Fibonacci retracement levels and important support levels - to seek promising areas to take our Long positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming higher highs and higher lows. Please note that our aim is to buy a dip in today's up-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
Attached Images
  • #398
  • Nov 27, 2009 3:07am Nov 27, 2009 3:07am
Time of Posting – Fri. Nov. 27, 2009. 09:06 GMT

On the Weekly chart (attached), we have a clearer picture of the overall market activity. Although, from the Weekly chart’s perspective, it’s currently a bit premature to conclude, we would notice that a possible downward or bearish channel is unfolding. This is indirectly (or directly, as the case may be) telling us that, while the Head and Shoulders formation previously observed on the Daily chart has been virtually nullified, the bears might still manage to pull something out of the bag.

On the Daily chart (attached), the downward or bearish channel is seen to be more valid as, unlike the weekly chart, the swing points for drawing the channel are already fully formed. Also to be observed is the current price pattern of lower high and lower low – a very strong indication that the bears are currently in charge. From a day-trade perspective, our bias is bearish; however, price is currently around a Daily swing low @ 1.6261 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line), hence the bears might experience some difficulties. Looking toward the left side of the Daily chart, we would notice the 1.6261 level is a critical level as price had reacted to it a number of times in the past.
In all, our conclusion is to seek Short trade setups on the Hourly chart – supported by the H4 chart, while bearing in mind this critical 1.6261 level.

On the H4 chart (attached), price has broken the most recent swing low @ 1.6496 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifts our bias in favor of a downward price move. The white horizontal line @ 1.6744 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows. Please note that our aim is to sell a rally in today’s down-trend.

Also, PATIENCE is the key here: we need to patiently wait for the Hourly retracement. It might happen, and it might not.
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  • #399
  • Edited 2:24am Nov 30, 2009 2:14am | Edited 2:24am
Time of Posting – Mon. Nov. 30, 2009. 08:13 GMT

On the Daily chart (attcahed), we concluded last week that price seems to be in a major downward or bearish channel, and the current pattern of lower high and lower low on the Daily chart is buttressing that view. We also identified a Daily swing low @ 1.6261 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) as a critical support level that the bears must contend with; and in accordance with our expectation, the 1.6261 level proved itself – probably even more than we anticipated. Although, last week trading ended with a big rally, and price sort of resumed the upward move earlier today, all factors supporting our bearish bias are still pretty much in place; hence, we would want to consider the current bullish move as a deep bullish retracement. From a day-trade perspective, our bias still tend toward a downward move, however, we might have to exercise patience as the Hourly Short trade setups – supported by the H4 chart – might take some time to unfold. Consequently, from the standpoint of this thread’s method, we’re probably done with this pair for this month.

On the H4 chart (attached), last week, price broke, at that time, the most recent swing low @ 1.6496 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line) downward. That automatically shifted our bias in favor of a downward price move. However, as discussed on the Daily chart, we would observe price is currently rallying, but supported by the overall price movement, we are still sticking with our bearish bias. In other words, we’re considering current price action as only a deep bullish retracement. Again, we might have to exercise patience as the Hourly trade setups might take some time to unfold.
The white horizontal line @ 1.6744 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.

However, we still need our Hourly charts – using Fibonacci retracement levels and important resistance levels – to seek promising areas to take our Short positions. Price pattern on the Hourly must also be forming lower highs and lower lows.
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD - Daily 301109.gif Size: 21 KB
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  • #400
  • Dec 1, 2009 4:30am Dec 1, 2009 4:30am
Time of Posting – Tue. Dec. 01, 2009. 10:30 GMT

On the Daily chart (attached), we would observe price is currently, more or less, in a dicey situation: while our bias still remains bearish – partly due to the Daily lower high lower low formation that’s still intact as well as price’s bearish close yesterday – current price action is moving farther away from the previous day’s low @ 1.6379 (not highlighted) and, instead, advancing toward the previous day’s high – a not so good sign for the bears. We usually like to see price break below previous days’ lows to strengthen our bearish biases. Today is turning out to be another “waiting day” on the GBPUSD pair.

On the H4 chart (attached), we have a closer observation of current bullish price action. Again, though, our bias is still bearish, price has rallied a relatively great distance away from the most recent swing low – also the previous day’s low @ 1.6379 (which we’ve highlighted using the blue broken line). In short, our bearish bias is waning; however, the white horizontal line @ 1.6591 highlights the most recent swing high, and as long as price stays below it – in the absence of any new and lower swing high – our bearish or downward bias remains intact.
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