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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #11,261
  • Edited 6:12am Nov 18, 2009 1:21am | Edited 6:12am
Quoting lilpip
mahes, any plans or thoughts on e/u ?
hey im lil biased for eurobear after yesterdays move, but currently might trade the upmove ... finding NY session to be the best nowdays , usually wait till late London to dance , till then just collecting pips


edit:
was biased wrongly,
but profited nicely , hope all had a good day too ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,262
  • Edited 7:54am Nov 18, 2009 7:37am | Edited 7:54am
note taken @ e/u 4972 area.

not sure if she wants to continue partials taken from 4865 area,
goin other way from 70 area watchen how 4932 area responds.
  • #11,263
  • Edited 9:32am Nov 18, 2009 8:54am | Edited 9:32am
be nimble
somethings amiss
feels like the usd bear has come to an end ...
December is the closing book month , after selling usd for most part of the year , they need to cover it before starting afresh...

anyway cld gravely be wrong as usual

good trading to all
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #11,264
  • Nov 18, 2009 9:13am Nov 18, 2009 9:13am
Quoting maheswara
be nimble
something amiss
feels like the usd bear has come to an end ...
December is closing book month , after selling usd for most part of the year , they need to cover it before starting afresh...

anyway cld be gravely wrong as usual

good trading to all
Thats what i recall Fti saying about December too, and volatility should be higher from CBs in the market.
  • #11,265
  • Nov 18, 2009 9:51am Nov 18, 2009 9:51am
could any one please guide me on his or her own way of snow balling a position (pyramiding)
  • #11,266
  • Nov 18, 2009 10:36am Nov 18, 2009 10:36am
Quoting spotless1212
could any one please guide me on his or her own way of snow balling a position (pyramiding)
There's no rule written in stone about it. The general idea gravitates around the Fibo spiral, however it all depends on the market conditions and your own risk apetite.
Latetely I often use the pure Fibo 1-1-2-(3)-(5) for attack sequence and the modified 1-3-(5) for a swift rescue. As I said nothing's written in stone - for me it all depends on how I feel the market when I trade. Not very systematic, I know

Hope this helps.
  • #11,267
  • Nov 18, 2009 5:41pm Nov 18, 2009 5:41pm
Quoting maheswara
be nimble
somethings amiss
feels like the usd bear has come to an end ...
December is the closing book month , after selling usd for most part of the year , they need to cover it before starting afresh...

anyway cld gravely be wrong as usual

good trading to all
2 things to bear in mind:

1- tomorrow unemployment numbers will be out
2- pre thanksgiving day holidays...so people are already taking off

I will not trade tonight...I will skip it.

CU
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #11,268
  • Nov 18, 2009 5:42pm Nov 18, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting Setebos
There's no rule written in stone about it. The general idea gravitates around the Fibo spiral, however it all depends on the market conditions and your own risk apetite.
Latetely I often use the pure Fibo 1-1-2-(3)-(5) for attack sequence and the modified 1-3-(5) for a swift rescue. As I said nothing's written in stone - for me it all depends on how I feel the market when I trade. Not very systematic, I know

Hope this helps.
No rules...because they makes us rigid...
and that is a no-no as per the boss
teaching.
Cheers
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #11,269
  • Nov 18, 2009 6:32pm Nov 18, 2009 6:32pm
eyes taking note of that dip @ 4941, deciding which way to send the scout.
  • #11,270
  • Nov 18, 2009 7:06pm Nov 18, 2009 7:06pm
Quoting lilpip
eyes taking note of that dip @ 4941, deciding which way to send the scout.
Yes, 1.4950 is right in the middle of this weeks range. It looks like it will pass by or reverse a few times this week. I just wait while it is in this area. All the best to everyone for the last two trading days of the week. Ray
  • #11,271
  • Nov 18, 2009 7:13pm Nov 18, 2009 7:13pm
Quoting luSan
No rules...because they makes us rigid...
and that is a no-no as per the boss
teaching.
Cheers
That's rite practice practice & pratice until I found out what is my comfort zone.

@Lusan - havn't seen you around so long I guess you like your new job & new enviroment.
I also consider you are one of my teacher too cos I've been study your journal.

Cheers
  • #11,272
  • Nov 18, 2009 7:51pm Nov 18, 2009 7:51pm
Quoting spotless1212
could any one please guide me on his or her own way of snow balling a position (pyramiding)
There's times when you feel the need to take the big hammer out and whack a trade when you sense the timing is right, but this is my general MO through out the day, fib based rescue, mainly to readjust my backside position within the current trend and prior reversal I see in my rear view mirror. Attacks are linear in nature.
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  • #11,273
  • Nov 18, 2009 9:13pm Nov 18, 2009 9:13pm
Quoting pete.alfa
That's rite practice practice & pratice until I found out what is my comfort zone.

@Lusan - havn't seen you around so long I guess you like your new job & new enviroment.
I also consider you are one of my teacher too cos I've been study your journal.

Cheers
Oh no...I do not teach a thing...
the boss said all....

the biggest lesson from fti? be flexible...
for example...
look at 1D right now... it is almost alternating bear and bull...so what is the right strategy?
look at 4H...reaching to a trend line...so what to do?
PA tends to bounce from trends and S/R but not always...
now bring info of unemployment numbers tomorrow...and
what we got?
I would say that we are in a daily range with a potential north bounce from 4H but tomorrow figures would suggest, to my own ways of trading, to wait and see what PA would do...
so I am out tonight...
Still what am I saying?
that we need to consider everything and make a decision from it...
then just trade...MM...
surrender to the dance..

good luck.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #11,274
  • Edited Nov 19, 2009 6:27am Nov 18, 2009 9:23pm | Edited Nov 19, 2009 6:27am
Quoting auxesis
There's times when you feel the need to take the big hammer out and whack a trade when you sense the timing is right, but this is my general MO through out the day, fib based rescue, mainly to readjust my backside position within the current trend and prior reversal I see in my rear view mirror. Attacks are linear in nature.
Interesting...I follow you very well.
another example of the trading complexity...
Now to bed....
I wonder if E/U will bounce from 1.49...that is something to find out tomorrow morning.
Cheers to all!

Edit: It did not hold...we are reaching for the bottom...
Next barrier at ~1.48
Was this all the Euro long resetting their position prior to the numbers?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #11,275
  • Nov 18, 2009 11:39pm Nov 18, 2009 11:39pm
@raja,
welcome , consider urself lucky if u've read the thread at the beginning of ur trading journey ...



Thanks Mahe,

skilling up on demo before heading for live.

rgds
ru
  • #11,276
  • Nov 19, 2009 6:26am Nov 19, 2009 6:26am
Hi friends,

Found an interesting read in another forum about options.
It provides some ideas about what is happening, when you find something about 'option barriers' on the newsfeeds:



Options in FX
Well, first of all options in the FX market are entirely different from equities. The cash market being extremely liquid, the options in most cases can be hedged almost perfectly. For instance, if an option has a barrier (as a simple example, the one-touch bet - payout if level say 1.95 in cable is touched at any point duting the life of the option) and spot is a pips away from the barrier with 10 mins left to expiry, you can imagine there is a significant amount at stake for the players. Apart from talks of "defending the barrier etc" to perfectly hedge this one has to take positions several times (sometimes a 100 times) of the notional of the bet, and FX is perhaps the only market where people can be confident of getting such liquidity. If the same option had a US share as underlying, the supply would simply not permit this level of hedging, and regulations are an issue as well.

The other difference is that while in indices like S&P, if you want to hedge a portfolio, its much easier to go the exchange and buy futures or options on the S&P instead of dynamically buying the shares underlying the index (500 in this case). In FX though most transactions, say 96%, occur through the interbank market. This means exceptional flexibility in choosing the date, cut, size, payoff profile, etc. At the end of the day a sizeable deal is most likely going to be like a yard placed with one investment bank, and that bank in turn hedges itself with other banks in the market. Thus most banks know the presence of massive options in the market, information that is privileged. As private traders we can hardly hope to hear about the details of such options.

Finally how would such options affect the market? The two most visible effects in my opinion are:

(1) When there is a massive barrier in the market that is being protected, in effect making it a high importance S/R level until the option expires. Note that just like S/R, the objective observer just stands aside and see who's winning instead of taking sides :-) and if the barrier is indeed breached, usu there is a huge stop loss order in the market to hedge it.

(2) If there is a sizeable option in the market expiring today, spot is close to the strike, and the market is long this option. Now in this case the market is long Gamma and the traders take profit every time spot moves 10 pips or so from the strike, they take profit (age-old habits of taking profits early maybe!) and the net effect is spot stays glued to it until the expiry time, usu NYK cut.

Hope that helps.
__________________
Happy Trading!!!

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

The original post can be found here:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/fore...tml#post170796
  • #11,277
  • Edited 8:55am Nov 19, 2009 7:58am | Edited 8:55am
Happy trading day to everyone. Nice post MaMood, thanks! Hope you are all trading well and staying focused. I have been in several dozen trades so far this week with little to show for it, but I keep swinging at 'em as the forex pitches 'em. I am watching the GBP, CAD and E/J for now. Hang in there, traders!

Edit: Riding a long CAD position and enjoying some strong movement now. Take care everyone.
  • #11,278
  • Nov 19, 2009 9:48am Nov 19, 2009 9:48am
Quoting MaMood
Hi friends,

Found an interesting read in another forum about options.
It provides some ideas about what is happening, when you find something about 'option barriers' on the newsfeeds:



Options in FX
[i]Well, first of all options in the FX market are entirely different from equities. The cash market being extremely liquid, the options in most cases can be hedged almost perfectly. For instance, if an option has a barrier (as a simple example, the one-touch bet - payout if level say 1.95 in cable is touched at any point duting...


Do they mean closeing a position when they say "expiring" ?
  • #11,279
  • Nov 19, 2009 11:30am Nov 19, 2009 11:30am
Quoting M-H Trader
[/indent]Do they mean closeing a position when they say "expiring" ?
hello MH trader,

expiring means that the option-contract ends. the writer/seller of the contract hopes (some say even tries to make) the option worthless. if the option is "in the money" the writer has to pay or buy the ammount of currency at (or untill???) expiry. this is specefied in the option.

kind greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #11,280
  • Edited 8:48pm Nov 19, 2009 6:12pm | Edited 8:48pm
I do not know but I feel that I want to be a bear tonight!
Why?
Because E/U and U/J looks so similar...anything is possible...
who knows...

edit: I just felt that probably being a bull might also work...so
I flipped without losses...we will see.

edit2: oK..it seems that I am in the winning side...oh well...nobody knows.

edit3: now it feels that is a good time to close the trade...What a crazy way to trade...
Still 100 % winning rate this week...no more until this crazy 4H triangle is clear...maybe I stay out till
Sunday evening...Now I am going to bed.
Happy hunting to all.
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