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  • #141
  • Edited 12:53pm Nov 30, 2005 11:46am | Edited 12:53pm
I've had a quick look at the link and I think it refers to v2 and not 3 (quite what the differences are I'm not sure).

Anway from the text file given below I've checked against the code and it looks like the optional stuff is junk, The weekly indicator is the same as the macd_grad I've done. They jury is still out on the 4h mandatory strategy tester (at least thats what I think it is). Still I might keep that for the future.

Anyway I like the colour swapping on his weekly gradient so decided to do the same for my indicators. (Nothing like "borrowing" an idea, is there!? )

Heres a quick screenshot: I've painted the gradient a lighter shade of the momentum colours (just to be a tart! : )

http://img456.imageshack.us/img456/3...dcad6nl.th.gif

Don't forget to pick up the new toys in the attachment.

Quoting volan
Thanks Iso, I really appreciate you're explanation.

Further to my comment about spiggy's indicators, In case anyone is interested, here is another link to his indicators (at least I think they're his) http://www.lightpatch.com/forex/mt_y...-V2/Readme.txt

In there is a readme.txt file that explains his indicators. The text of the readme follows. Thanks again to everyone for discussing the 4hr tunnel.

Description
===========
This implementation of the new 4 Vegas system for MT4 is organised as follows:

4hVegasMetaTraderWeeklyChart.mq4 (Optional)
-------------------------------------------
Places the Moving average lines on the Weekly chart. It does not produce any calculations, only visualises the MA lines for information purposes.The green line in the main window is the EMA21 and the blue line is the SMA5.

4hVegasMetaTraderWeeklyIndicator.mq4 (Mandatory)
------------------------------------------------
Calculates the trend according to the divergence of the SMA5 and EMA21. Publishes a weekly variable of the trend to be used in the 4h chart. The variable is calculated from Sunday to Sunday.The blue line in the child window is the difference between the SMA5 and the EMA21. The Green and Red histogram bars are the *change* since the last measurement. If the bar is green, the week is a bull week, if the bar is red, the week is a bear week.

4hVegasMetaTrader4hCTD.mq4 (Optional)
-----------------------------------
Shows the state of the weekly trend variable in the child window on the 4hour chart. For information only.

4hVegasMetaTrader4hChart.mq4 (Mandatory)
--------------------------------
Uses the weekly variable to confirm the direction of the trade, and then enters or exits based on the MA crossovers.On the ENTRY the brackets show the entry price, on EXIT, the brackets hold the P/L

Using it
========
1) Open a weekly chart. Place the "4hVegasMetaTraderWeeklyIndicator.mq4" (and optionally "4hVegasMetaTraderWeeklyChart.mq4") on it
2) Open a 4H chart for the same symbol. Place "4hVegasMetaTrader4hChart.mq4" (and optionally "4hVegasMetaTrader4hCTD.mq4") on it.
3) Use the "PrintTags" option to print trade information - beware there is lots and without a good monitor you will not see much!Thanks and credit to go to the Vegas team.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip indicators.zip   8 KB | 551 downloads
  • #142
  • Dec 1, 2005 7:34am Dec 1, 2005 7:34am
Dialist,
I know there's more to it than this, but is the basic idea to:

1) See if the weekly momentum changes, regardless of the MA cross direction
2) If momentum changes, only look for trades in this new direction on 4 hour charts until there's another weekly momentum change?

Thanks,
John


Quoting diallist
Someone asked the following via a PM to me.

They wanted to know about the Loonie (USD/CAD). They said they understood that the trend had changed from down to up, but were not sure whether they should take long positions until after the crossover of the 21 EMA and the 5 SMA.

Answer: As soon as a momentum change indicates a change in trend, you start taking positions in the direction of the new trend immediately. You do not wait until crossover occurs. Sometimes, you don't get a crossover between trend changes. And, while most trend changes are indicated by a decrease in momentum, there are some occasions where the trend change is marked by an increase in momentum. The Loonie (USD/CAD) might be about to present such a scenario in the next week or two.

Here are the two sequences that mark a trend change.

The first is when a decrease in momentum marks the trend change, and is the one you'll see most of the time.

The second sequence occurs less frequently and is characterized by an increase in momentum marking the trend change.

First Trend Change Sequence

1. Momentum continues to increase from week to week indicating the current trend is still in place.
2. Momentum decreases from one week to the next indicating a trend change has occurred.
3. Momentum continues to decrease until a crossover of the 21 EMA and 5 SMA occur.
4. Crossover Occurs
5. Momentum begins to increase following the crossover.
6. The next decrease in momentum marks another trend change.

Second Trend Change Sequence

1. Momentum continues to increase from week to week indicating the current trend is still in place.
2. Momentum decreases from one week to the next indicating a trend change has occurred.
3. Momentum continues to decrease, but then .....
4. No Crossover Occurs.
5. Instead, momentum begins to increase again marking the beginning of a new trend.
6. The next decrease in momentum marks another trend change.

Perhaps the image below will help illustrate this. If you are not clear on the two sequences, let me know.

Dial
  • #143
  • Dec 1, 2005 12:46pm Dec 1, 2005 12:46pm
Now I've coloured in the indicators I can do a nice little study and try to figure some stuff out with a time series example.

I've picked the loony and will highlight one year (2003) which marked the slide in this pair and see how certain entry points can be picked off. There is no exit points highlighted - only by inference of trend line breaks.

So here is a 9 year chart with a cut off point from Dec 2002:


http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/7...cad10oi.th.gif

Note how after that time the red momentum dominates with small bluish momentum peaks.

So you should be able to see that the red areas correspond to the bear run in a big way and the bulls didn't have enough strength to mount any serious rallies.

See my earlier posts for an explanation of the notations and discussion with Dial about this stuff.
  • #144
  • Dec 1, 2005 1:10pm Dec 1, 2005 1:10pm
I've marked points where the momentum turns drops off using red vertical lines and there have been 8 decent turns on the chart.

http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/8...cad22nz.th.gif

You should be able to see them on the MACD Gradient indicator as the point where it drops below the centre line (bottom chart in red). This should also mark momentum dropping off on the MACD indicator above (either above or below the centre line).

Both charts in tandem are easier to work these things out I think - more so if you do this by hand.

Think of MACD momentum as the speed your travelling at and the gradient as the acceleration.

So if the momentum increases week on week then you're accelerating - this can be either +ve or -ve momentum (since the sign is just a direction) and conversely if it decreases then you're decelerating. If two consecutive weeks are at the same level then there is no acceleration from one week to the next.

Both types of acceleration are variable as you can see on the gradient chart. However if the grad is above the centre line you have +ve acceleration and if below then -ve acceleration.

The first five lines mark signficant sell offs compared to the last three - can you see why?
  • #145
  • Dec 1, 2005 6:09pm Dec 1, 2005 6:09pm
Quoting Isotonic
The first five lines mark signficant sell offs compared to the last three - can you see why?
No! Could you clue me or dja want me to work at it some more.

I do sooooo love the new multicolored toys. Don't give up on me! Balancing my time between studying and developing the Bonehead stategy! and of course.......fixin' the toilets!

Thanx for all this work....again!
HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #146
  • Dec 1, 2005 6:26pm Dec 1, 2005 6:26pm
Quoting FXLogic
Dialist,
I know there's more to it than this, but is the basic idea to:

1) See if the weekly momentum changes, regardless of the MA cross direction
2) If momentum changes, only look for trades in this new direction on 4 hour charts until there's another weekly momentum change?

Thanks,
John
You got it! That is the basic idea.
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #147
  • Dec 1, 2005 8:25pm Dec 1, 2005 8:25pm
Thanks, Dialist. That concept of weekly momentum changes gives me a different perspective on this.

John


Quoting diallist
You got it! That is the basic idea.
  • #148
  • Dec 2, 2005 9:45am Dec 2, 2005 9:45am
well heres the answer to the teaser i set yesterday:

(the 2 years should read 3 on the chart)


http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/2...cad24lh.th.gif
  • #149
  • Dec 2, 2005 9:48am Dec 2, 2005 9:48am
price hidden at the top...just to focus on indicators

notice just before the last red line when macd is red and the grad just turns briefly blue and then sinks back into the red. this would normally signal a weekly trend change but you can see with both indicators how it would look like a false signal.


http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/5...cad33ym.th.gif
  • #150
  • Dec 2, 2005 9:59am Dec 2, 2005 9:59am
With the -ve gradient turns brought in from the weekly.

You can see how just soon after all lines the price takes a dive. More so after the 2 & 3rd lines.

Targets set by my line drawing rather than fib lines or ma turns. This I might keep for my adaptation.

The MA is the slow 55sma 4hr brought onto the daily so is 55/6=9 (and a bit). I miscalculated so its actually 8 on my charts (just don't tell anyone.) The 8/6=1 and a bit for the fast ma seemed to be pointless so I left it out.


http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/5...cad43ea.th.gif
  • #151
  • Dec 4, 2005 3:48am Dec 4, 2005 3:48am
An interesting point to test is the weekly momentum & grad changes shown on these charts on other pairs. How valid is it?

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/6...cad53lh.th.gif

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/9...cad64vp.th.gif

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/9...cad76ze.th.gif

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/5...cad87tj.th.gif
  • #152
  • Dec 4, 2005 7:38am Dec 4, 2005 7:38am
Last one (must of reached the image limt or something):

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/9...cad97pt.th.gif
  • #153
  • Dec 4, 2005 7:42am Dec 4, 2005 7:42am
I'm glad you liked the new toys - I actually took the blue & red colours from your charts!

I think I've found a way of adapting this system for my purposes...but Charles "knife" could blow all this away next month so I'm being cautious right now.

Quoting HeavyJ
No! Could you clue me or dja want me to work at it some more.

I do sooooo love the new multicolored toys. Don't give up on me! Balancing my time between studying and developing the Bonehead stategy! and of course.......fixin' the toilets!

Thanx for all this work....again!
HJ
  • #154
  • Dec 4, 2005 11:58am Dec 4, 2005 11:58am
Quoting Isotonic
I'm glad you liked the new toys - I actually took the blue & red colours from your charts!

I think I've found a way of adapting this system for my purposes...but Charles "knife" could blow all this away next month so I'm being cautious right now.
Please don't hold back. I'd like to hear of any changes you've made.

Thanks

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #155
  • Dec 5, 2005 10:03am Dec 5, 2005 10:03am
hey guys;

I'd like to get your take on the 50pip "exclusion" region. Of course it's not really an exclusion region according to Vegas, he simply says that if you want to take the trade that you should look at technicals.

Anyway, I'd like to put this to people on this tread. It seems that Iso's take on the 50pip thing (and please correct me if I've mis-interpreted) it to take the uppoer point (55MA, 8MA, or price) and draw a line 50 pips above that, and then do the same thing with the lower point. That can sometimes give an exclusion region of something very large. For example, right now on EUR/GBP You see that there are about 160 pips betwen the 2 red lines

http://i22.imagethrust.com/t/113047/eurgbp.jpg

My reading of Vegas' document is that you go to technicals if the 2 MAs (8 SMA and 55 SMA) and price are all within 50pips. So, take the top point (say price) and the bottom point (say 55MA) and if there's 50 pips between them, go to technicals.

Is my read incorrect? Is there really a 50pip buffer above the upper point and below the lower point?

Thanks,
  • #156
  • Edited 11:36am Dec 5, 2005 11:24am | Edited 11:36am
Quoting volan
hey guys;

I'd like to get your take on the 50pip "exclusion" region. Of course it's not really an exclusion region according to Vegas, he simply says that if you want to take the trade that you should look at technicals.

Anyway, I'd like to put this to people on this tread. It seems that Iso's take on the 50pip thing (and please correct me if I've mis-interpreted) it to take the uppoer point (55MA, 8MA, or price) and draw a line 50 pips above that, and then do the same thing with the lower point. That can sometimes give an exclusion region of something very large. For example, right now on EUR/GBP You see that there are about 160 pips betwen the 2 red lines

http://i22.imagethrust.com/t/113047/eurgbp.jpg

My reading of Vegas' document is that you go to technicals if the 2 MAs (8 SMA and 55 SMA) and price are all within 50pips. So, take the top point (say price) and the bottom point (say 55MA) and if there's 50 pips between them, go to technicals.

Is my read incorrect? Is there really a 50pip buffer above the upper point and below the lower point?

Thanks,
I haven't read all of Iso's posts yet so I can't comment on his view of the 50 pip rule. I would suggest you re-read post 13 of this thread. For myself, if the 50 pip rule is in effect, as defined in post 13, then I look at current price action to decide whether to enter a trade or not. I enter on technicals about half the time, and wait for the boundaries to be exceeded before starting to look for slope changes again the other half of the time. I haven't investigated taking "breakout" trades on piercing the boundaries yet.

Oh yes, the GBP/USD has not been under the 50 pip rule since Nov 30 at 10:00 pm EST. That means you should be looking for slope changes to signal a trade today.

I don't know where the term "exclusion" region came from. I don't see that anything is excluded. The 50 pip rule does not prevent you from taking a trade, it only changes how you take the trade (technicals vs slope change).

To add more confusion to the fire, I am currently doing a manual backtest of the knife system and based on what I've seen so far, I am considering either ditching the 50 pip rule altogether, or perhaps rewriting it.

BTW, I highly recommend to all who are interested in this model/system to perform your own MANUAL backtest. Going through the charts bar by bar has been very enlightening and has given me a much better feel for the flow of the system.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #157
  • Dec 5, 2005 12:30pm Dec 5, 2005 12:30pm
Quoting diallist
I haven't read all of Iso's posts yet so I can't comment on his view of the 50 pip rule. I would suggest you re-read post 13 of this thread. For myself, if the 50 pip rule is in effect, as defined in post 13, then I look at current price action to decide whether to enter a trade or not. I enter on technicals about half the time, and wait for the boundaries to be exceeded before starting to look for slope changes again the other half of the time. I haven't investigated taking "breakout" trades on piercing the boundaries yet.

Oh yes, the GBP/USD has not been under the 50 pip rule since Nov 30 at 10:00 pm EST. That means you should be looking for slope changes to signal a trade today.

I don't know where the term "exclusion" region came from. I don't see that anything is excluded. The 50 pip rule does not prevent you from taking a trade, it only changes how you take the trade (technicals vs slope change).
I agree with the 50 pip explanation in post 13. I think that Iso may be implementing it a little differently. I think he is subtracting 50 from the low indicator and adding 50 the the high indicator (Iso, is that correct?).

As for the word "exclusion" please disregard. I may have read it in a post somewhere and it stuck in my head. I know it's not an exclusion zone, simply an indication that you should look at technicals.
  • #158
  • Dec 5, 2005 12:39pm Dec 5, 2005 12:39pm
I just made up the "exclusion" term as another way of saying "50 pip rule" so don't worry about the term too much.

The way I've implemented it in mt4 should agree with what Dial said in post #13. I've checked it a few times and it should be correct.

I agree with low volatility pairs like EURGBP the number itself may need adjusting. I'm also thinking of ditching the rule altogether as well.

Quoting volan
I agree with the 50 pip explanation in post 13. I think that Iso may be implementing it a little differently. I think he is subtracting 50 from the low indicator and adding 50 the the high indicator (Iso, is that correct?).

As for the word "exclusion" please disregard. I may have read it in a post somewhere and it stuck in my head. I know it's not an exclusion zone, simply an indication that you should look at technicals.
  • #159
  • Dec 5, 2005 12:41pm Dec 5, 2005 12:41pm
I suppose its really for Jim so here goes...

Will Jim's daily tunnel system also be taught in the pf? Along with the knife, or separately or not at all?

Just wondering, that's all!
  • #160
  • Edited 1:49pm Dec 5, 2005 1:39pm | Edited 1:49pm
Quoting Isotonic
The way I've implemented it in mt4 should agree with what Dial said in post #13. I've checked it a few times and it should be correct.
Iso, I think you may be implementing the 50 pip rule in an opposite manner to which post #13 prescribes. The following figure shows my understanding of post #13. The lines that say 50pips are just approximate because I eyeballed them.

http://i28.imagethrust.com/t/113534/eurgbp.jpg

The two horizontal red lines were generated using Iso's "tun_lines" indicator. The turquoise horizontal lines show (about) 50 pips above the turquoise 8 SMA. The grey horizontal lines show (about) 50 pips below the grey 55 SMA. Even though the two regions overlap a little, it can plainly be seen that the 8 SMA is more than 50pips away from the 55 SMA. But the "tun_lines" indicator shows that all indicators (including price) are within its bounds.

Dial, is my understanding in line with your post#13?

Iso, is my understanding the same as yours?
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