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Silent Service Method

  • #5,721
  • Nov 11, 2009 10:47am Nov 11, 2009 10:47am
Quoting Danku
I look at your Chart and note that the S/R and Candlestick Patterns seem to be more obvious......do you agree with me?

I have also noted the same on Stock charts.....am i wrong?
I believe it's more obvious depending on who is looking to be honest - it's all about perception.

I do however, believe that S/R lines tend to be a little more obvious in stocks, futures, etc......

In forex, I think you have to zoom out a little more.

Chris
  • #5,722
  • Nov 11, 2009 10:48am Nov 11, 2009 10:48am
Quoting Danku
Chris, just a quiet observation i have made over the last couple of months (correct me if am wrong) while following you live chart trades (they really help some of us).

I note the trades from Stocks seem much easier to come by for you (you make a trade every day) and you make few Forex trades.....why is this?...
It's basically because there is more action in the other markets at the moment. Funny you should mention this, it's the subject of my next post!

Good timing....
  • #5,723
  • Edited 2:38pm Nov 11, 2009 11:04am | Edited 2:38pm
I know that some forex traders think this could be blasphemy, but I actually trade several markets, and almost think of forex as a secondary market. I know you probably got dragged into it because it's the most lucrative market out there. (Nonsense)

The truth is, currency markets follow money, not direct it. (Most of the time.) This is why there are things like the "Carry Trade". It's currencies following money from a lower interest paying currency, thus borrowing cheaply....and buying assets in another country that pays a larger amount of interest.

An example: You borrow 1 million Yen, and buy bonds in Australia.....if the currency markets are relatively calm, it's an easy way to make money. When bad things happen, it unwinds. There are much better people out there than I to explain the nuances of this trade, so I will leave it at that. (Think John and Wade at learningmarkets.com)

The point is, if you see a set up in AUD/USD, there's a good chance a trade has already happened in another market involving those currencies. (Perhaps the copper markets.)

So when I look for trades, I tend to look all over, that way I can pick the best set ups. Lately, that hasn't necessarily been in currencies. If you are serious about trading, you will need to trade other markets sooner or later. I know there are people that will argue about that, but please....don't bother. It's my thread!

All I can say is that the day I started looking around me, I noticed certain obvious things.....Gold can move the AUD/USD pair. So I can use it as a signal for currency trading, or better yet - trade it as well.

Forgive me if I do not trade forex as much at the moment, but the set ups haven't been as abundant lately. For my money, I have identified oil, gold, and grains as hot spots lately. It will change for sure, and I am still looking for GBP shorts, although I am a little leery of buying the USD against it.....It's a lot like watching two sissies fight. Sure, it's fun - but futile at the same time.

I am thinking of shorting the GBP againt the CHF if we get a short signal around the 1.67 handle....which I see as a major area. Also, I like it short against the ComDolls. (Commodity Dollars.....AUD, CAD, NZD) But I have to wait for a signal.

The Dollar did pop a little today, supposedly because of some jackass in Britain talking about that trader tax......whatever, it's just noise as usual.

Stay tuned, forex will awaken again, it always does....

Chris
  • #5,724
  • Nov 11, 2009 8:25pm Nov 11, 2009 8:25pm
Update on Gold trade....ONe of the reasons for the stops being moved up above the last swing low? We are going straight up, and a retrace is probable.
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  • #5,725
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:31am Nov 12, 2009 1:31am
Nice one Chris..........i am also learning the moving of stops which seems to work quite well.

Anyone here trading Activtrades and Hays....please assist me with you comments on them, Good or Bad. I note they both have more than Forex.

Quoting clockwork71
Update on Gold trade....ONe of the reasons for the stops being moved up above the last swing low? We are going straight up, and a retrace is probable.
  • #5,726
  • Nov 12, 2009 2:27am Nov 12, 2009 2:27am
Quoting Danku
Nice one Chris..........i am also learning the moving of stops which seems to work quite well.

Anyone here trading Activtrades and Hays....please assist me with you comments on them, Good or Bad. I note they both have more than Forex.
Danku,

apparently Activtrades are quite good but have no direct experience with them. Don't have info on Hays sorry. Why don't you consider Interactive Brokers ? They are good, reliable, cheap and most of all safe. I agree forex is not as good as other products but they also offer Currency Futures.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #5,727
  • Nov 12, 2009 2:51am Nov 12, 2009 2:51am
Quoting hornet
Danku,

apparently Activtrades are quite good but have no direct experience with them. Don't have info on Hays sorry. Why don't you consider Interactive Brokers ? They are good, reliable, cheap and most of all safe. I agree forex is not as good as other products but they also offer Currency Futures.
I don't like the sunday bar on Activtrades, it's unnecessary and annoying. IB look really good for trading, awful for charting and either way you need to deposit quite a large amount to start with which is preventing me from using them at the moment.
  • #5,728
  • Nov 12, 2009 3:05am Nov 12, 2009 3:05am
Thanks Eduardo and hornet............

I think i will open a demo with Hays and see how it works out............i would love to open with IB but the deposit is too large........happy trading

Quoting Eduardo
I don't like the sunday bar on Activtrades, it's unnecessary and annoying. IB look really good for trading, awful for charting and either way you need to deposit quite a large amount to start with which is preventing me from using them at the moment.
  • #5,729
  • Nov 12, 2009 3:24am Nov 12, 2009 3:24am
Quoting Danku
Thanks Eduardo and hornet............

I think i will open a demo with Hays and see how it works out............i would love to open with IB but the deposit is too large........happy trading

If that is the case why not use Oanda ? No big deposit required, you choose the minimum size, many pairs including all exotics and also Gold and Silver.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #5,730
  • Nov 12, 2009 6:39am Nov 12, 2009 6:39am
Quoting hornet
If that is the case why not use Oanda ? No big deposit required, you choose the minimum size, many pairs including all exotics and also Gold and Silver.
Agreed. If you are looking for metals, it's a good place to start. I do not know about the other places mentioned....except IB, sorry.

Chris
  • #5,731
  • Nov 12, 2009 6:54am Nov 12, 2009 6:54am
I regards to the booklet, is that the one posted in May ? Is it the only one or more stuff around ? Also Chris, I am a member of J16 PF but never really got round to working this way. I was too busy trying to make fast money and blowing my account up during that process.
No big deal since it was a small account and almost a year has passed since, but I learnt a few things from it and since then. I will now review all your videos at the PF.

Thanks for taking me back to where I was before I got side-tracked by indicators and systems.

Utmost Respect To You
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #5,732
  • Nov 12, 2009 6:59am Nov 12, 2009 6:59am
Quoting hornet
I regards to the booklet, is that the one posted in May ? Is it the only one or more stuff around ? Also Chris, I am a member of J16 PF but never really got round to working this way. I was too busy trying to make fast money and blowing my account up during that process.
No big deal since it was a small account and almost a year has passed since, but I learnt a few things from it and since then. I will now review all your videos at the PF.

Thanks for taking me back to where I was before I got side-tracked by indicators and systems.

Utmost...
No worries, and thank you for the compliments!
  • #5,733
  • Nov 12, 2009 8:20am Nov 12, 2009 8:20am
Update on my gold trade, and the plan going forward. When the trend is this strong, most dips are buying opportunities.
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  • #5,734
  • Nov 12, 2009 12:24pm Nov 12, 2009 12:24pm
Not that I think shorting PM's is a good idea right now, but silver looks like a nice H&S to me.
  • #5,735
  • Nov 12, 2009 12:26pm Nov 12, 2009 12:26pm
Hey CW: when did you start diversifying? How much capital does one need to get into equities, etc.? thanks.
  • #5,736
  • Nov 12, 2009 12:45pm Nov 12, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting drebin
Hey CW: when did you start diversifying? How much capital does one need to get into equities, etc.? thanks.

I can at least partially answer this one. The biggest obstacle to trading equities is the minimum account size of $25K, if you qualify as a pattern-day-trader, meaning more than three transactions per week(limits set by the SEC).

If you only make one trade per week (two transactions:entry and exit) you can trade whatever you can afford as long as you meet the brokers required minimum deposit(which varies).

A side note: Does anyone know where I can find free commodities-futures charting? Also mildly interested in bonds. Not sure where to look.
  • #5,737
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:02pm Nov 12, 2009 1:02pm
Quoting Low
I can at least partially answer this one. The biggest obstacle to trading equities is the minimum account size of $25K, if you qualify as a pattern-day-trader, meaning more than three transactions per week(limits set by the SEC).

If you only make one trade per week (two transactions:entry and exit) you can trade whatever you can afford as long as you meet the brokers required minimum deposit(which varies).

A side note: Does anyone know where I can find free commodities-futures charting? Also mildly interested in bonds. Not sure where to look....
This site seems pretty ok: http://futuresource.quote.com/charts...W&b=CANDLE&st=
  • #5,738
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:44pm Nov 12, 2009 1:44pm
Quoting Low
a pattern-day-trader, meaning more than three transactions per week(limits set by the SEC).

If you only make one trade per week (two transactions:entry and exit) you can trade whatever you can afford as long as you meet the brokers required minimum deposit(which varies).
Just to clarify that:
It's actually 4 day-trades in a week. A day trade is defined as selling a security the same day you bought it. If you buy a position and sell it the next day, that is not a day trade and you can do as much of that as you want. For further reading, go here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pattern_day_trader

Quote
A side note: Does anyone know where I can find free commodities-futures charting? Also mildly interested in bonds. Not sure where to look.
For Futures charts, i used to use www.futuresource.com all the time, but it's gotten to be riddled with advertisements.
I've never used this one, but it looks very interesting: http://timingcharts.com/index.php
You may also be able to do Futures charting with NinjaTrader & use OpenTick as your data provider.
  • #5,739
  • Nov 12, 2009 1:46pm Nov 12, 2009 1:46pm
Hi guys,

Today was another good day. I trust you all caught some pips here on this golden thread. There was a nice bottom on USD/CHF (H4). Zoomed in to H1 and there was great divergence @ my face. Waited for confirmation and pulled the trigger 3 times (of course 1 unit each, 3%). Closed the first & the second half moving SL to BE (so I could sit with the last lot). Just took out the last lot now (my reason being that the trend is still down).

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Also, just to add to what clockwork said about round numbers, handles and areas I would like so say that I also use mid range numbers too. I.e you have 00's & 50's :: Therefore the mid ranges would be 25's & 75's. I have found this very helpful in my trading.

Lastly, just wanted to share this. Sounds funny because I never believe anything i hear on TV especially on CNBC for that matter..LOL. I take things like these with a pinch of salt.

What are your thoughts though ... LOL????

Inserted Video


Cheers
  • #5,740
  • Nov 12, 2009 2:22pm Nov 12, 2009 2:22pm
Thanks for the replies and clarifications. I will check out those two sites.

And whiz.....That video?

When talking bobble heads start singing the praises of the dollar's demise, I start thinking about going long the USD and short commodities.

In the long term view, I see inflationary policies as the only possible exit aside from more catastrophic events(sovereign default?), but in the mid-term I see a good possibility of a dollar bounce for technical reasons (besides....you went long the dollar at swiss parity, pretty easy bet, eur/usd at 150? also a sitting duck), but in consideration of the up and coming CRE mortgage rate resets, my bias is towards another deflationary episode through 2010-2012.

see chart:

http://i33.tinypic.com/s4z76s.png
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