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Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #261
  • Nov 12, 2009 7:20am Nov 12, 2009 7:20am
Hi Dan, thanks for the advice. This thread is a great place to learn by the way. Nice work.

I took a couple of small trades on the EU and GU. I went short at 1.5000 on the EU and long on the GU at 1.6600. Prices currently stand at 1.4921 (EU) and 1.6542 (GU).

The EU is obviously a CT trade and I understand you only trade in the direction of the trend. I decided to take a small punt with it being so far from the support line and because of resistance at around 1.5050.

It's interesting the charts suggested to me these pairs will go in opposite directions. I don't think I would use a similar strategy in the future. These two pairs tend to go in the same direction so they would probably cancel eachother out. I guess the current support line for the GU is too short to assume that it's in an uptrend.
  • #262
  • Nov 12, 2009 7:35am Nov 12, 2009 7:35am
Quoting TradeOne
It's interesting the charts suggested to me these pairs will go in opposite directions. I don't think I would use a similar strategy in the future. These two pairs tend to go in the same direction so they would probably cancel eachother out. I guess the current support line for the GU is too short to assume that it's in an uptrend.
Yes, the two tend to follow each other around - which is why I am very cautious when the two charts are headed in opposite directions. When that happens I stick with the pair that is clearest - most recently this has been E/U.
  • #263
  • Nov 12, 2009 7:57am Nov 12, 2009 7:57am
Quoting DanUK
You've confused me a bit here!?

I have a long open on E/U from 1.47 (stop loss currently at 1.49). As long as E/U remains in an uptrend I won't be placing any sell orders - I only trade in the direction of the trend.

I do not have any open position on G/U. I would say that there is no confirmed trend here at the moment - if I was to take a sell it would have been at 1.6750 after price was rejected at 1.6800.

Does that help to clear things up?

Regards,

Dan
what i mean is not sell on E/U but sell G/U. But never mind, you already explain it very clear, n sorry my english is not very good.
Yes i also see 1.4850 or 1.4800 as my are of interest on E/U to go long.
Another question: did you ever take position even if price is not retracing to 50% fibo (ex 38.2%) or you have to see price reach 50% first as a fix rule before you interested to take position?
  • #264
  • Nov 12, 2009 8:11am Nov 12, 2009 8:11am
weekly, daily and 4H look in a down trend to me. recent move seems to be from 1.0777 on 11/6 to 1.0415 on 11/12, 50% and round number are 1.0600. Is this the correct use of the methodology?
  • #265
  • Nov 12, 2009 8:12am Nov 12, 2009 8:12am
Quoting DanUK
Yes, the two tend to follow each other around - which is why I am very cautious when the two charts are headed in opposite directions. When that happens I stick with the pair that is clearest - most recently this has been E/U.
Another interesting thing is that the EUR/GBP chart looks like a downward trend with a potential trade to go short at 0.9000. This would support the strategy I'm using on the EU and GU. Maybe I'm overanalysing but it could be interesting to measure the correlations between these pairs and consider some kind of strategy. Having said that, I do see the value in just sticking with the pairs that are clearest.
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  • #266
  • Nov 12, 2009 9:02am Nov 12, 2009 9:02am
Quoting TradeOne
Another interesting thing is that the EUR/GBP chart looks like a downward trend with a potential trade to go short at 0.9000. This would support the strategy I'm using on the EU and GU. Maybe I'm overanalysing but it could be interesting to measure the correlations between these pairs and consider some kind of strategy. Having said that, I do see the value in just sticking with the pairs that are clearest.
it's now at the 1995 high, so it could go either way. to me EG looks going up, if you zoom out a bit more on the daily. price also near 50% of swing june low - october high (got rejected at 0.89). what do you think?
  • #267
  • Nov 12, 2009 9:29am Nov 12, 2009 9:29am
Quoting bazooki
it's now at the 1995 high, so it could go either way. to me EG looks going up, if you zoom out a bit more on the daily. price also near 50% of swing june low - october high (got rejected at 0.89). what do you think?
I agree that the long-term trend is up but the most recent trend on the daily chart is down. It bounced off 0.9050 (resistance line and close to 50% fib taken from the most recent swing high and low) so I entered an order to go short at 0.9000.
  • #268
  • Nov 12, 2009 10:03am Nov 12, 2009 10:03am
I think I've come up with all of this because I was bored waiting for pairs to get back to a level where I can trade in the direction of the long-term trend.

I do believe that trading off the shorter term trends is riskier and entering at a "discount price" on the long-term trend offers a higher chance of success.
  • #269
  • Nov 12, 2009 11:30am Nov 12, 2009 11:30am
any one long on the GU from 6500 or 6550?
  • #270
  • Nov 12, 2009 9:05pm Nov 12, 2009 9:05pm
Quoting IliaM
any one long on the GU from 6500 or 6550?
in Dan's E/U thread there are at least two people long from 1.6600 (they should have posted that here! )

I broke the rules and closed my short usd/cad manually @ 1.0550 because I think it would definitely hit my initial stop @ 1.0600 (could be wrong of course).

also got stopped out my long A/U @ 0.9250 and I believe more room to the downside (at least to the 50% fib). things are slow during asian markets. so the plan is to watch price action friday on european / us markets, before deciding on any limit orders?
  • #271
  • Nov 13, 2009 6:29am Nov 13, 2009 6:29am
Quoting bazooki
in Dan's E/U thread there are at least two people long from 1.6600 (they should have posted that here! )

I broke the rules and closed my short usd/cad manually @ 1.0550 because I think it would definitely hit my initial stop @ 1.0600 (could be wrong of course).

also got stopped out my long A/U @ 0.9250 and I believe more room to the downside (at least to the 50% fib). things are slow during asian markets. so the plan is to watch price action friday on european / us markets, before deciding on any limit orders?

Main trend has been up since Oct 15, keeping main longs from there.

And about the recent dips; yes, added some longs around 1.6550-1.6600s, and will cash 1/3 of that around 1.6750s, other 1/3 above 1.68
  • #272
  • Nov 13, 2009 7:40am Nov 13, 2009 7:40am
markets continue and should be profitable to you all. good lesson never to break the rules, read opinions of others on other threads, which made me questioning my own analysis, and close out positions manually

(I even had a long G/U @ 1.6550, and also closed it yesterday @ break-even, because of the same reasons mentioned above).
  • #273
  • Nov 13, 2009 7:57am Nov 13, 2009 7:57am
Quoting bazooki
markets continue and should be profitable to you all. good lesson never to break the rules, read opinions of others on other threads, which made me questioning my own analysis, and close out positions manually

(I even had a long G/U @ 1.6550, and also closed it yesterday @ break-even, because of the same reasons mentioned above).



At least you can admit it...good for you!

Plan a trade and trade that plan...win or lose at least you can carry on.

I'm still short u/cad from.0800 and I will stay short until it stops going down.

Follow the trends my friends.

golferfx
  • #274
  • Nov 13, 2009 9:27am Nov 13, 2009 9:27am
thanks very good advice. what do you all think about long E/U 1.4850 (50% fib this months low-high). it's right there at this very moment.
  • #275
  • Nov 13, 2009 9:51am Nov 13, 2009 9:51am
Quoting bazooki
thanks very good advice. what do you all think about long E/U 1.4850 (50% fib this months low-high). it's right there at this very moment.
I'm not an intraday trader so I'm not the one to give advice.

I would however say that if one wanted a bargin I would look for 1.4500 and see a reaction from that level....good or bad.

golferfx
  • #276
  • Nov 13, 2009 10:08am Nov 13, 2009 10:08am
not an intraday trader either, but just would like to get "back into the trend". Doesn't matter which (trending) $-pair. Dan has done this several times with success. Was afraid to pull the trigger EU @ 1.4850 (now trading at 1.4890).
  • #277
  • Nov 13, 2009 10:25am Nov 13, 2009 10:25am
Quoting bazooki
not an intraday trader either, but just would like to get "back into the trend". Doesn't matter which (trending) $-pair. Dan has done this several times with success. Was afraid to pull the trigger EU @ 1.4850 (now trading at 1.4890).


Sorry man...

When I see a bargin on a pair I'll post it...usually after 5:00 pm N.Y. time.

golferfx
  • #278
  • Nov 16, 2009 9:23am Nov 16, 2009 9:23am
long from 7360, off 50% fib. trade at be now.


i have been watching usdnok but am not able to figure out a proper sl for it. its not a pair for new traders so those who are new to trading and new to this system, please dont even look at it.
  • #279
  • Nov 16, 2009 5:13pm Nov 16, 2009 5:13pm
Quoting coolshades
long from 7360, off 50% fib. trade at be now.


i have been watching usdnok but am not able to figure out a proper sl for it. its not a pair for new traders so those who are new to trading and new to this system, please dont even look at it.
How big of a stop are you using on nzdusd? 100? Do you trade gbpusd? How big of a stop are you using? Thanks

Joe
  • #280
  • Nov 16, 2009 6:50pm Nov 16, 2009 6:50pm
aud/usd trade from post #177 now +300 pips locked in.
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