A story about a burglar and forex

Hey people,

I was reading a (non-forex related) book last night, and there was a nice story in there, which reminded me of something that is actually related to forex.

Once upon a time there was a burglar. Before this burglar broke into a building, he studied the building carefully. He then made a plan, and gave himself a timeframe within which he should leave the building, as the expected risk of getting caught when staying inside longer would become too large.

One day he broke into a building that he gave himself a 5 minute timeframe for. As the deadline approached, he walked down to the exit. On his way there, he peaked inside one more room, and saw a huge diamond there. This diamond had to be very expensive, but grabbing it would take 10 more seconds and the theft would then exceed 5 minutes.

What did he do?

Maybe this is a familiar story for some, but yesterday was the first time I heard of it.

He should have left, already setting his escape/TP.... But being Human, he probably didn't and got caught

In FX, he could have looked at the Bigger Picture/TF and decided on that, if he was going to stay and see if IE. News/Diamond will bring more luck, but before entering the room/news, look for a Window/SL to exit the building/trade if things goes against him.

If I wrote this story, I’d have a greedy burglar who followed his nature (instead of his plan) and got caught because of it. In trading you can have a great plan but still ruin the trade with sloppy execution. Greed is one of the things that can prevent proper trade execution.

Well at least if he gets caught he will get free food and board which FX won't provide if you fail.

Unless the owner comes home and gives the burglar a belly full of double ought buck. Oops, margin call.

He considered the change in situation. If 10 seconds adds considerably more risk, then the plan didn't have any margin for error in the first place, in which case I'd consider it a bad plan. I'll assume that he allowed margin for error, and those 10 seconds weren't absolutely critical, but part of his margin for error. This would add relatively little risk to what he's already endured, but significantly increase the payoff. He goes for it, and is probably correct to do so.


A good plan would allow for foreseeable contingencies.


He has studied the building carefully, as stated in the story. He should already be aware of secondary exits.

He took the diamond, the alarm went off and he was arrested. Now, the diamond was for his lover, alas, she had other plans. Our burglar got 10 years in jail and his lover moved in with his best mate, raided his accounts and gave her new lover the Pradas and the Guccis, hahah.
Conclusion - know yourself and who you are with.

Wow Mr J, were you the author of the story...

Out to nail me on this one aren't you...Will teach me not to try and be clever again...


btw...He then made a plan, and gave himself a timeframe within which he should leave the building

and that was what I based my answers on, IMHO

happy Pip'n

Just attempting to fill in the variables needed to make such a decision .

Then we can conclude that he probably wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed.

He didn't plan well beforehand....knew nothing about a big diamond in a place he was going to steal......bad thief, he will get caught soon if not this time....

He must of got caught otherwise this story would not be so detailed,
We would not know of the plan and if it was a he or she.

This is now really becoming interesting.... maybe we can all learn something here, would love to hear the opinion of some of the Vouched members

Come on Noloqy, tell us the outcome

btw, I voted

In this story, the burglar was disciplined enough to leave the diamond untouched and got out of the building in time. The burglar believed that there were enough other opportunities (possible thefts) to get rich.

But in reality, it doesn't really matter what he did, its about he should have done. Discipline is one of the most important characteristics a good trader can have. Since the burglar based his plan around a timeframe, he should have left the building in time, no matter what. However, like Fx1618 mentioned, it is human nature to take the diamond, because of emotions like greed.

I can't stress enough that trading is about discipline. I don't intend to make or break personal strategies, but once you open a position, it is important that all decisions you make are conform that specific (predefined) strategy to prevent emotions from taking over.

Wow, they should make a film about that epic. Come on, the burglar doesn't even get shot? A burglar, you would assume, is a greedy and impulsive character with an almost sociopathic view that they can help themselves to other people's property without detriment to their conscience. Although I have very little empirical evidence, I am also going to assume that burglars generally lack intelligence and education. But in this 'Hollywood' analogy, the burglar is a loveable rogue, perfectly rational and disciplined, conducting a cost-benefit analysis in the middle of the heist. I can't help but feel you are glamourising burglary with this unrealistic portrayal. Of course he's going to go for the diamond, it is his nature.

New ending please noloqy, and this one better have traps.

I am thinking he left the diamon. Because if he studied the building and had the patience to plan and wait. Then he was discipline enough to stick to his plan. Unless the greed monster blocked his brain.

As traders we must learn to manage risk. In this story the thief like most newer traders went for the big bucks on sight but probably lost it all as he couldn't keep emotions in check.
He could have walked away without the diamond as there is always a tomorrow to try again... this time for a higher reward.

Sticking to your rules and discipline is what keeps you in the business profitable, never risk it all in one shot as your confidence will take the best from you.

I'm glad people are seeing the point here. Next time you see yourself in a similar situation (which I bet many traders do regularly), think of this story and make a rational, emotion free decision that is conform your initial strategy.

In forex, going after such diamonds is like chasing a mirage - at least on the long run.

Ladies and gentlemen, a story is nothing but a story and should NOT
be used in your trading. This should be the disclaimer.

First of all, a story is too simple. It can turn out good or bad
depending on who the is the author or the "house." The house always
win because it is his story.

Secondly, the story talks about timing, planning, and factors involving
follow-through. However, the story is not detailed enough and too
generalized. Escape time in the story is meaningless. It is meaningless
because the main character studied the building but was not smart
enough. He did not realized that the building is equipped with highly
automated and adapting technology. This means "scalping", "proper exit",
or whatever is meaningless. Computer servers nowaday used by banks
and brokers are obviously super-fast and surely will catch all things.
I am sure it is probably equally or faster than a QUAD CORE.

What does this mean??? How come some people manage to win some??
Perhaps, they were lucky enough to be on the side of the market and not
on the collection side (the losers' side). There are too many factors.

This reply is simply a reply without any offense intention.

He should follow his intuition that he developed through hard practice.

Where was his stoploss ?